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CBN Leaves Rates Unchanged as IMF Downgrades Growth

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By Lukman Otunuga, Research Analyst at FXTM

In a widely expected move, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has left interest rates unchanged at 14% for January.

Signs of rising inflationary pressures are likely to fuel speculation over the central bank tightening monetary policy, especially as government spending increases ahead of the presidential elections. With rising inflation in Nigeria seen threatening the Naira exchange and economic stability, the CBN may be forced to act quicker than expected.  However, with the IMF lowering Nigeria’s growth projection for 2019 to 2% due to a change in oil’s outlook and weakening global expansion, the CBN may now be in a tricky position. While a rate hike will tame inflationary pressures, it may end up impacting growth by discouraging consumer borrowing and businesses to reduce investments. Will Nigeria’s economy expand by 2.28% in 2019 as the CBN predicts or closer to the IMF’s 2% projection?

While it is widely known that Nigeria remains on a mission to diversify away from oil reliance, the nation’s short-medium term outlook hangs on oil’s performance.

Risk sentiment hit by IMF pessimism

A wave of risk aversion swept across financial markets today with global equities retreating as pessimism over global growth sapped risk sentiment.

The International Monetary Fund’s recent gloomy global growth outlook left a bitter aftertaste while Brexit-related uncertainty and a prolonged US government shutdown drained investor confidence. With investors clearly keeping a safe distance from riskier assets amid the general gloom, Asian stocks closed in the red territory while European shares traded modestly lower. The declines witnessed across global stocks continue to highlight how fragile market sentiment remains. With geopolitical risk factors and global growth fears seen stimulating risk aversion, Wall Street is likely to open in a depressed fashion this afternoon.

UK jobs data offers temporary distraction from Brexit

The British Pound edged higher earlier today after encouraging jobs data offered investors a short-term distraction away from the Brexit chaos and political drama in Westminster.

With wage growth in the UK hitting a new 10-year high at 3.4% and employment growing more than expected in the three months to November, this certainly suggests that the labour markets remain resilient despite Brexit. However, this strong jobs data is destined to be overshadowed by Brexit developments.

In the latest episode to the Brexit saga, Theresa May has unveiled her ‘Plan B’ to Parliament. With MP’s describing ‘Plan A’ as ‘Plan B’ in disguise, nothing new has been brought to the table. Will the Prime Minister’s Brexit ‘Plan B’ be able to win the Commons over at the Parliamentary debate and vote on January 29th? This is a question on the mind of many investors. Whatever the outcome of the vote, it will play a role in how or if the UK departs from the European Union.

Commodity spotlight – Gold

Gold bounced back from multi-week lows on Tuesday as concerns over slowing global growth sent investors rushing to safe-haven assets.

Geopolitical risks in the form of Brexit drama, US-China trade developments, and a government shutdown in the United States boosted the metal’s allure with prices trading around $1,283 as of writing. Gold is likely to receive further support from growing speculation over the US Federal Reserve taking a pause on rate hikes this year.

In regards to the technical picture, Gold remains in a bullish channel on the daily charts. There have been consistently higher highs and higher lows with the MACD pointing to the upside. An intraday breakout above $1,286 is likely to open a path towards $1,295 and $1,300, respectively.

 


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E-Financial

Shareholders Approve $1.5bn Capital Raising for Access Holdings

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The shareholders of Access Holdings Plc have unanimously approved the company’s proposed capital raising of $1.5 billion through a bond or share sale and a further N365 billion via a Rights Issue to fund its ambitious growth plans.

The shareholders also ratified the appointments of Aigboje Aig-Imoukhuede, Olusegun Ogbonnewo, and Ojinika Olaghere as Non-Executive Directors.

The appointment of Aig-Imoukhuede as the Chairman of Access Holdings was praised by the shareholders, who pointed to his rich history of success with the institution, having transformed it into Nigeria’s biggest lender by market value alongside late Herbert Wigwe.

The shareholders stated that Aigboje’s leadership was instrumental in driving the institution’s growth during the 2004 recapitalisation of the banking industry led by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) under the leadership of its former Governor, Prof. Charles Soludo.

“We are thrilled with Aigboje Aig-Imoukhuede’s return to the role of Chairman. His proven track record, experience, and strategic insights position him as the ideal leader to steer Access Holdings towards meeting its lofty targets.

During his tenure as CEO, particularly during the recapitalisation directive by the CBN, he steered Access Bank to raise an impressive $2 billion in capital, and this demonstrates his capacity to, once again, lead Access Holdings towards successfully achieving the objectives of our planned capital raise and Rights Issue targets,” said Chief Sunny Nwosu, Chairman Emeritus of the Independent Shareholders Association of Nigeria (ISAN).

In line with the Group’s strong financial performance, the payment of a final dividend of N1.80 kobo per every N0.50 kobo ordinary share for the 2023 financial year was approved, marking a 28 per cent improvement from the corresponding period in 2022.

 


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Confusion as CBN Deletes, Reinstates Tweet Calling Crypto-Related Directive Fake

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has been forced to deny a report saying it issued a directive requiring all banks and financial institutions to identify individuals or entities engaging in transactions with cryptocurrency exchanges and to ensure that such accounts are put on Post No Debit (PND) instruction for six months.

Confusion as CBN Deletes, Reinstates Tweet Calling Crypto-Related Directive Fake

A “Post No Debit” instruction is a directive issued by a bank or financial institution to restrict certain transactions on a customer’s account.

When a PND instruction is in place, the account holder is prohibited from making debit transactions, meaning they cannot withdraw funds or make payments using the affected account.

Confusion occurred when the central bank denied the story on X but then deleted the denial.

The alleged circular also stated that regulated financial institutions engaged in crypto or facilitating payments for crypto exchanges are prohibited.

However, this contradicts an earlier ban lifted in December 2023, allowing banks to facilitate transactions for crypto exchanges.

The central bank lifted the ban nearly two years after enforcing a comprehensive ban on banks engaging with digital currencies.

According to a statement by the CBN at the time, it recognized that the increasing global demand and adoption of crypto make it unjustifiable to maintain the stringent restrictions imposed on financial institutions in 2021.

However, due to the swift devaluation of the naira and the subsequent inflation rate of 29.9%, the government shifted its attention to platforms offering cryptocurrency services.

It disabled websites associated with crypto trading that had gained notoriety for setting informal valuations for the naira.

Binance encountered significant scrutiny when the CBN raised concerns regarding “suspicious financial transactions” occurring through Binance Nigeria in 2023.

Olayemi Cardoso, governor, CBN, said $26 billion had passed through Nigeria via Binance in 2023 from unidentified sources and users.

Binance is facing further challenges in Nigeria, with its executive Tigran Gambaryan, who is based in the United States, being detained in the country.

He’s facing five charges linked to money laundering following a meeting with Nigerian officials regarding Binance’s regulatory compliance.

Nadeem Anjarwalla, one of the executives who met with Nigerian officials about Binance’s regulatory issues, subsequently escaped custody and was tracked down to Kenya, where he faces extradition.

 


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NDIC Inaugurates Anti-Corruption and Transparency Unit

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Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC) has inaugurated an Anti-Corruption and Transparency Unit (ACTU) at its headquarters in Abuja.

NDIC Inaugurates Anti-Corruption and Transparency Unit

Speaking at the inauguration which was conducted by officials of the Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission (ICPC); Mr. Bello Hassan, managing director/chief executive, NDIC, said the corporation has a culture of zero tolerance for corruption, which is further strengthened by its core values of teamwork, respect and fairness, integrity, professionalism, and passion.

Represented by Mr. Mustapha M. Ibrahim, executive director, Operations, Hassan, said, the NDIC ACTU has strengthened the Corporation’s operational system through the implementation of various compliance measures to ensure ethics, integrity, transparency and accountability in the workplace.

He explained that the specific measures include robust Internal Controls, regular Risk Assessments, and strict adherence to regulatory guidelines, and comprehensive training programs for employees.

Hassan described the inauguration as a significant step in the Corporation’s ongoing commitment in the fight against corruption and enhances transparency.

He emphasised that NDIC Management remains committed to supporting ACTU activities, recognizing the unit’s critical role in ensuring the Corporation’s operations are conducted with integrity, free from corruption, and fostering public trust.

Dr. Musa Adamu Aliyu, chairman, ICPC, who was represented by Mr. Olusegun Adigun, acting director System Study and Review, ICPC, praised NDIC management for their dedication and active support in establishing and advancing the activities of the ACTU to address corruption issues and foster ethical practices.

He applauded the efficiency and diligence of the NDIC ACTU in fulfilling its mandate, resulting in the Corporation retaining the first position for two consecutive years on the annual ICPC Ethics and Integrity Compliance Scorecard.

He urged the new ACTU members to see their nomination as an opportunity to build on the good legacies of the previous members and to complement Management’s efforts in promoting the core values of the Corporation through their assigned duties.

 

 


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