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FXTM Analysis: Nigeria Maintains Resilience Against the Storm

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Confidence towards the Nigerian economy received a welcome boost following reports of the country reclaiming its position as the largest economy in Africa.

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Nigeria’s GDP currently stood around $415.08 billion in October while South Africa at $280.36 billion sparking discussions of the nation standing firm against the storm.

Although the release was seen as a breath of fresh air, it must be kept in mind that Nigeria is still entangled in a painful battle with depressed oil prices while ongoing concerns over faltering domestic growth weigh on sentiment.

External risks such as a resurgent Dollar amid renewed US rate hike expectations have pressured the Naira, with the local currency currently trading around 448 on the black market exchange as of writing.

Oil’s volatility and rising rate hike expectations enticed bearish investors to send the Naira to the lows of 475 against the Dollar in early October before prices staged a remarkable rebound towards 450.

With the Naira’s value being dictated by external risks in the shorter term, the current rebound in value may be the product of oil’s resurgence amid renewed hopes of a potential OPEC freeze deal.

WTI Oil currently hovers above $50, a value which is supportive of Nigeria that receives over 90% of its export revenues, and 70% of its government revenues from oil prices. If Oil continues to trade higher and OPEC surprise the markets with a freeze deal, the world’s largest economy in Africa could be elevated as rising oil revenues would help plug the budget deficit.

Looking at the economic data, Nigeria’s inflation floated towards 17.9% in September its highest figure in eleven years consequently highlighting the pressures faced since the NBS stated that the country stumbled into a technical recession.

Although the figure was somewhat painful, the visible slowdown from August’s 17.6% level displayed the impacts of the record 14% interest rates set by the Central Bank of Nigeria. It seems that the CBN is on a quest to quelling inflation while attracting Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) via high-interest rates and although it may be early to gauge the impacts, the early results look encouraging.

The main theme in Nigeria revolves around the government finding solutions to fund its budget which could help the nation steer away from the curse of oil reliance. President Muhammadu Buhari has tabled a budget of roughly N6.06 trillion for 2016, but the shortfall continues to spark debates over selling key assets to plug the deficit. While selling the national assets may offer a solution in the short term the long-term losses of potentially relinquishing the goods at below cost value could place the nation under further pressure.

With Nigeria displaying resilience despite the persistent talks of a recession, nations such as China and America have come forward to offer a helping hand.

Chinese investors have already signed an agreement to boost the Nigerian economy with digital television, information communication in focus, while the U.S has pledged to increase FDI in Nigeria.

Despite the short-term gloom and doom, the global economy remains optimistic over the future of Nigeria’s economy once diversification builds momentum.

For instance, PwC’s research indicates that the nation could reach $1.4 trillion by 2030 making it a super power that could shake the globe. The first steps to this great journey remain critical with everything revolving around diversification and finding the right methods of funding.

When discussing diversification, the blueprints have already been published, with agriculture acting as the goose that lays the golden eggs. With a population hovering around 180 million and set to grow exponentially as the years progress, agriculture could be a key attribute which sparks economic stability.

Once any nation has the ability to feed itself, the surplus may be exported globally which could provide additional government revenues that are reinvested back into the nation. Other major sectors in Nigeria such as maritime, tourism, technology and manufacturing all have the ability to generate untold results once the infrastructure is reinforced.

The complicated jigsaw puzzle on how to stabilize the Nigerian economy slowly becomes solvable by the day as pieces such as diversification; funding and improving economic data provide investors the clarity needed to fill the gaps. When falling oil prices punished the nation the main focus revolved around diversification, but this has shifted to the budget deficit and solutions for funding.

Nigeria plans to sell a Eurobond worth $1 billion before the end of the year and if thisis successful it could bolster sentiment towards the Nigerian economy as the first steps are taken to plug it’s 2.2 trillion Naira budget deficit.

 


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E-Financial

Shareholders Approve $1.5bn Capital Raising for Access Holdings

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The shareholders of Access Holdings Plc have unanimously approved the company’s proposed capital raising of $1.5 billion through a bond or share sale and a further N365 billion via a Rights Issue to fund its ambitious growth plans.

The shareholders also ratified the appointments of Aigboje Aig-Imoukhuede, Olusegun Ogbonnewo, and Ojinika Olaghere as Non-Executive Directors.

The appointment of Aig-Imoukhuede as the Chairman of Access Holdings was praised by the shareholders, who pointed to his rich history of success with the institution, having transformed it into Nigeria’s biggest lender by market value alongside late Herbert Wigwe.

The shareholders stated that Aigboje’s leadership was instrumental in driving the institution’s growth during the 2004 recapitalisation of the banking industry led by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) under the leadership of its former Governor, Prof. Charles Soludo.

“We are thrilled with Aigboje Aig-Imoukhuede’s return to the role of Chairman. His proven track record, experience, and strategic insights position him as the ideal leader to steer Access Holdings towards meeting its lofty targets.

During his tenure as CEO, particularly during the recapitalisation directive by the CBN, he steered Access Bank to raise an impressive $2 billion in capital, and this demonstrates his capacity to, once again, lead Access Holdings towards successfully achieving the objectives of our planned capital raise and Rights Issue targets,” said Chief Sunny Nwosu, Chairman Emeritus of the Independent Shareholders Association of Nigeria (ISAN).

In line with the Group’s strong financial performance, the payment of a final dividend of N1.80 kobo per every N0.50 kobo ordinary share for the 2023 financial year was approved, marking a 28 per cent improvement from the corresponding period in 2022.

 


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Confusion as CBN Deletes, Reinstates Tweet Calling Crypto-Related Directive Fake

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has been forced to deny a report saying it issued a directive requiring all banks and financial institutions to identify individuals or entities engaging in transactions with cryptocurrency exchanges and to ensure that such accounts are put on Post No Debit (PND) instruction for six months.

Confusion as CBN Deletes, Reinstates Tweet Calling Crypto-Related Directive Fake

A “Post No Debit” instruction is a directive issued by a bank or financial institution to restrict certain transactions on a customer’s account.

When a PND instruction is in place, the account holder is prohibited from making debit transactions, meaning they cannot withdraw funds or make payments using the affected account.

Confusion occurred when the central bank denied the story on X but then deleted the denial.

The alleged circular also stated that regulated financial institutions engaged in crypto or facilitating payments for crypto exchanges are prohibited.

However, this contradicts an earlier ban lifted in December 2023, allowing banks to facilitate transactions for crypto exchanges.

The central bank lifted the ban nearly two years after enforcing a comprehensive ban on banks engaging with digital currencies.

According to a statement by the CBN at the time, it recognized that the increasing global demand and adoption of crypto make it unjustifiable to maintain the stringent restrictions imposed on financial institutions in 2021.

However, due to the swift devaluation of the naira and the subsequent inflation rate of 29.9%, the government shifted its attention to platforms offering cryptocurrency services.

It disabled websites associated with crypto trading that had gained notoriety for setting informal valuations for the naira.

Binance encountered significant scrutiny when the CBN raised concerns regarding “suspicious financial transactions” occurring through Binance Nigeria in 2023.

Olayemi Cardoso, governor, CBN, said $26 billion had passed through Nigeria via Binance in 2023 from unidentified sources and users.

Binance is facing further challenges in Nigeria, with its executive Tigran Gambaryan, who is based in the United States, being detained in the country.

He’s facing five charges linked to money laundering following a meeting with Nigerian officials regarding Binance’s regulatory compliance.

Nadeem Anjarwalla, one of the executives who met with Nigerian officials about Binance’s regulatory issues, subsequently escaped custody and was tracked down to Kenya, where he faces extradition.

 


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NDIC Inaugurates Anti-Corruption and Transparency Unit

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Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC) has inaugurated an Anti-Corruption and Transparency Unit (ACTU) at its headquarters in Abuja.

NDIC Inaugurates Anti-Corruption and Transparency Unit

Speaking at the inauguration which was conducted by officials of the Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission (ICPC); Mr. Bello Hassan, managing director/chief executive, NDIC, said the corporation has a culture of zero tolerance for corruption, which is further strengthened by its core values of teamwork, respect and fairness, integrity, professionalism, and passion.

Represented by Mr. Mustapha M. Ibrahim, executive director, Operations, Hassan, said, the NDIC ACTU has strengthened the Corporation’s operational system through the implementation of various compliance measures to ensure ethics, integrity, transparency and accountability in the workplace.

He explained that the specific measures include robust Internal Controls, regular Risk Assessments, and strict adherence to regulatory guidelines, and comprehensive training programs for employees.

Hassan described the inauguration as a significant step in the Corporation’s ongoing commitment in the fight against corruption and enhances transparency.

He emphasised that NDIC Management remains committed to supporting ACTU activities, recognizing the unit’s critical role in ensuring the Corporation’s operations are conducted with integrity, free from corruption, and fostering public trust.

Dr. Musa Adamu Aliyu, chairman, ICPC, who was represented by Mr. Olusegun Adigun, acting director System Study and Review, ICPC, praised NDIC management for their dedication and active support in establishing and advancing the activities of the ACTU to address corruption issues and foster ethical practices.

He applauded the efficiency and diligence of the NDIC ACTU in fulfilling its mandate, resulting in the Corporation retaining the first position for two consecutive years on the annual ICPC Ethics and Integrity Compliance Scorecard.

He urged the new ACTU members to see their nomination as an opportunity to build on the good legacies of the previous members and to complement Management’s efforts in promoting the core values of the Corporation through their assigned duties.

 

 


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