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FXTM Analysis: UK Election Results in Further Questions Than Answers

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FXTM Vice President of Market Research, Jameel Ahmad comments on the UK election result and what this means for global markets.

The eyes of the world are on the United Kingdom once again following another unexpected outcome to an election vote.

Has recent history repeated itself once again? It certainly feels that way after it appears that market expectations were once again left on the wrong side of the trade when it comes to a UK vote, with the UK election concluding in a hung parliament.

This wasn’t what anyone really wanted or expected as traders themselves watch the Pound slip 300 points against the Dollar, with losses in the British Sterling now seeing the currency diving all the way from 1.2950 to marginally below 1.2635 at the time of writing.

Before we dissect into the nitty gritty details around the behavior of the Pound there are a couple of other market-related questions on spectator’s minds, for example why has the FTSE 100 climbed higher at European open despite all of this uncertainty?

This is most likely due to the Pound weakness and the inverse correlation that has seen Pound losses encourage FTSE gains over the past year.

Another question that has left some puzzled is why has the financial market fluctuations been so restricted towards the Pound, and not seen in other asset classes like demand for safe-havens?

It appears that investors are treating the UK election as an independent Brexit/Britain issue, which is something that will lead to more concern for the UK and its economy than impacts elsewhere on the financial markets.

Moving back to the Pound, another question on the mind of traders is why is the currency not moving further south? With all the uncertainty in mind, the next direction for the Pound should be lower and I personally still think that 1.25 is the possible eventual target for sellers should the selling momentum continue.

The outcome to the UK election has been the opposite to what traders priced into the markets with the expectation of a landslide victory for Theresa May not occurring, which is why the Pound is looking at risk to retracing all gains made since the announcement of the snap election.

Some even expected the Pound to plunge all the way towards 1.20 against the Dollar in the event of a hung parliament and while the market might not have moved as much as expected with the door of uncertainty for the UK open even wider following this result, what this means away from any valuations in the financial markets is that the worst potential outcome has been realized with official Brexit negotiations scheduled to begin in less than a fortnight.

It was widely perceived that the major motive for Theresa May to announce a snap election was to have a stronger hand in the Brexit negotiations, but her playing card has not turned out as she had hoped and now the UK is embracing even more uncertainty just days away from a collision course with the European Union.

Where does the market head from here? The risks look heavily tilted towards further downside pressure.

What investors could be waiting for is some clues on what could possibly be happening next, before determining what direction the Pound should really be heading in next.

Although this outcome has come as an unexpected surprise for most, what we can confidently say at this stage is that the UK is going to encounter further political instability and this represents a wide contrast from the United Kingdom of the past, something that has clearly changed since the EU referendum and looks set to continue.    

 

 


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Shareholders Approve $1.5bn Capital Raising for Access Holdings

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The shareholders of Access Holdings Plc have unanimously approved the company’s proposed capital raising of $1.5 billion through a bond or share sale and a further N365 billion via a Rights Issue to fund its ambitious growth plans.

The shareholders also ratified the appointments of Aigboje Aig-Imoukhuede, Olusegun Ogbonnewo, and Ojinika Olaghere as Non-Executive Directors.

The appointment of Aig-Imoukhuede as the Chairman of Access Holdings was praised by the shareholders, who pointed to his rich history of success with the institution, having transformed it into Nigeria’s biggest lender by market value alongside late Herbert Wigwe.

The shareholders stated that Aigboje’s leadership was instrumental in driving the institution’s growth during the 2004 recapitalisation of the banking industry led by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) under the leadership of its former Governor, Prof. Charles Soludo.

“We are thrilled with Aigboje Aig-Imoukhuede’s return to the role of Chairman. His proven track record, experience, and strategic insights position him as the ideal leader to steer Access Holdings towards meeting its lofty targets.

During his tenure as CEO, particularly during the recapitalisation directive by the CBN, he steered Access Bank to raise an impressive $2 billion in capital, and this demonstrates his capacity to, once again, lead Access Holdings towards successfully achieving the objectives of our planned capital raise and Rights Issue targets,” said Chief Sunny Nwosu, Chairman Emeritus of the Independent Shareholders Association of Nigeria (ISAN).

In line with the Group’s strong financial performance, the payment of a final dividend of N1.80 kobo per every N0.50 kobo ordinary share for the 2023 financial year was approved, marking a 28 per cent improvement from the corresponding period in 2022.

 


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Confusion as CBN Deletes, Reinstates Tweet Calling Crypto-Related Directive Fake

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has been forced to deny a report saying it issued a directive requiring all banks and financial institutions to identify individuals or entities engaging in transactions with cryptocurrency exchanges and to ensure that such accounts are put on Post No Debit (PND) instruction for six months.

Confusion as CBN Deletes, Reinstates Tweet Calling Crypto-Related Directive Fake

A “Post No Debit” instruction is a directive issued by a bank or financial institution to restrict certain transactions on a customer’s account.

When a PND instruction is in place, the account holder is prohibited from making debit transactions, meaning they cannot withdraw funds or make payments using the affected account.

Confusion occurred when the central bank denied the story on X but then deleted the denial.

The alleged circular also stated that regulated financial institutions engaged in crypto or facilitating payments for crypto exchanges are prohibited.

However, this contradicts an earlier ban lifted in December 2023, allowing banks to facilitate transactions for crypto exchanges.

The central bank lifted the ban nearly two years after enforcing a comprehensive ban on banks engaging with digital currencies.

According to a statement by the CBN at the time, it recognized that the increasing global demand and adoption of crypto make it unjustifiable to maintain the stringent restrictions imposed on financial institutions in 2021.

However, due to the swift devaluation of the naira and the subsequent inflation rate of 29.9%, the government shifted its attention to platforms offering cryptocurrency services.

It disabled websites associated with crypto trading that had gained notoriety for setting informal valuations for the naira.

Binance encountered significant scrutiny when the CBN raised concerns regarding “suspicious financial transactions” occurring through Binance Nigeria in 2023.

Olayemi Cardoso, governor, CBN, said $26 billion had passed through Nigeria via Binance in 2023 from unidentified sources and users.

Binance is facing further challenges in Nigeria, with its executive Tigran Gambaryan, who is based in the United States, being detained in the country.

He’s facing five charges linked to money laundering following a meeting with Nigerian officials regarding Binance’s regulatory compliance.

Nadeem Anjarwalla, one of the executives who met with Nigerian officials about Binance’s regulatory issues, subsequently escaped custody and was tracked down to Kenya, where he faces extradition.

 


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NDIC Inaugurates Anti-Corruption and Transparency Unit

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Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC) has inaugurated an Anti-Corruption and Transparency Unit (ACTU) at its headquarters in Abuja.

NDIC Inaugurates Anti-Corruption and Transparency Unit

Speaking at the inauguration which was conducted by officials of the Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission (ICPC); Mr. Bello Hassan, managing director/chief executive, NDIC, said the corporation has a culture of zero tolerance for corruption, which is further strengthened by its core values of teamwork, respect and fairness, integrity, professionalism, and passion.

Represented by Mr. Mustapha M. Ibrahim, executive director, Operations, Hassan, said, the NDIC ACTU has strengthened the Corporation’s operational system through the implementation of various compliance measures to ensure ethics, integrity, transparency and accountability in the workplace.

He explained that the specific measures include robust Internal Controls, regular Risk Assessments, and strict adherence to regulatory guidelines, and comprehensive training programs for employees.

Hassan described the inauguration as a significant step in the Corporation’s ongoing commitment in the fight against corruption and enhances transparency.

He emphasised that NDIC Management remains committed to supporting ACTU activities, recognizing the unit’s critical role in ensuring the Corporation’s operations are conducted with integrity, free from corruption, and fostering public trust.

Dr. Musa Adamu Aliyu, chairman, ICPC, who was represented by Mr. Olusegun Adigun, acting director System Study and Review, ICPC, praised NDIC management for their dedication and active support in establishing and advancing the activities of the ACTU to address corruption issues and foster ethical practices.

He applauded the efficiency and diligence of the NDIC ACTU in fulfilling its mandate, resulting in the Corporation retaining the first position for two consecutive years on the annual ICPC Ethics and Integrity Compliance Scorecard.

He urged the new ACTU members to see their nomination as an opportunity to build on the good legacies of the previous members and to complement Management’s efforts in promoting the core values of the Corporation through their assigned duties.

 

 


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