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Opinion: Is Nigeria poised for an Economic Rebound?

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It has certainly been a lively year for the Nigerian economy as it continues to diversify away from oil reliance while juggling with a currency crisis and Dollar shortages created by low oil prices.

Although the nation still remains exposed to external risks, there has been some optimism over the economic landscape stabilizing, with the improving macro fundamentals fueling speculations of an economic rebound by the end of 2017.

Early signs of recovery can already be seen across Gross Domestic Growth, falling inflation and foreign exchange rate stability.

Even the International Monetary Fund (IMF), who previously warned of a potential economic collapse back in March, has turned positive and projected that Nigeria’s economy will grow at a faster pace than South Africa’s in 2018.

The current speed of Nigeria’s recovery can be described as slow and steady, with the macro-fundamentals gradually stabilizing. Inflation has cooled for the fifth consecutive month in June at 16.1% illustrating further signs of price stability while manufacturing and non-manufacturing activities have both moved in a positive trajectory.

The Naira continues to display resilience against the US Dollar this year, with prices currently trading around 363 on the black market exchange. Although the repeated intervention by the Central Bank of Nigeria has heavily attributed to the Naira’s recovery and stability, confidence over Nigeria’s economic recovery continues to play a leading role.

While the local currency may experience further stability in the coming months as the Central Bank of Nigeria intervenes, the multiple exchanges have left the foreign exchanges divided and continue to pose a risk to investment.

Rather than using the foreign exchange reserves to support the Naira, the CBN should work towards cleaning up the multiple exchanges, while allowing the natural forces of supply and demand to determine the Naira’s true equilibrium value.

Although I remain optimistic over Nigeria resurging from an economic meltdown and eventually breaking away from its dependence on oil as an engine for growth, there are still external risks which could present headwinds on the road to recovery.

The greatest threat to Nigeria’s current recovery in the medium to longer term, is depressed oil prices. Falling oil has the ability to directly impact the nation’s government revenues, external reserves, and stability of the nation’s foreign exchange market.

Another risk in the pipeline that could pressure Nigeria’s recovery is OPEC’s recent decision to cap the nation’s oil production to 1.8 million barrels per day, especially when the budget proposal is based on 2.2 million barrels per day at $44.50 per barrel. It should be kept in mind that restricting production not only poses a threat to the budget but also is seen as a disincentive for investment.

Investors should pay close attention to higher US interest rates which have the ability to boost the US Dollar ultimately pressuring emerging markets, with Nigeria fitting into the category. While the threat of capital outflows from a strengthening US Dollar may expose the Nigerian economy to downside shocks, it should also be kept in mind that a portion of the government revenues is recouped from oil which is priced in Dollar.

In the longer term, an appreciating Dollar from higher US rates will not only diminish the value of the government’s working revenue, but also enforce pressure on the nation’s black market exchange.

The Central Bank of Nigeria is likely to remain in the spotlight in the third quarter of 2017 as investors wait to see whether interest rates will be hiked or trimmed. Nigeria’s ongoing mission to diversify from oil reliance, as well as a sharp drop in oil which triggered a currency crisis, have encouraged the CBN to maintain its key interest rates at 14% in July. While the central bank is likely to remain on standby in the short term as Nigeria nurses its wounds, a rate cut could be on the cards in the medium to longer term if inflation continues to follow a negative trajectory and other forms of hard economic data improve.

Focusing on the fiscal side, this still remains a gray are with the nation’s long-running infrastructure problems compounding to its woes. With the overall projected fiscal deficit tagged at N2.36 trillion one can only hope that the approved budget offers a helping hand to the nation.

Nigeria is in urgent need for robust infrastructure as major roads are in poor condition; the power sector remains a cause for concern while health and education need to be revamped. Rectifying these issues has the ability to not only create jobs but also support economic growth and boost investor confidence.

As we head deeper into the third quarter of 2017, market players may closely observe hard domestic data at home to gauge the nation’s health and verify if an economic recovery really is on the cards for 2017. Nigeria’s mission to diversify away from oil reliance while recovering from an economic deceleration remains an ongoing quest and it will be interesting to see how far the nation has progressed by year end.


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E-Financial

CIBN says Recapitalization will Empower Banks to Lend more to Economy

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Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria, CIBN, has expressed support for the ongoing banking recapitalization exercise saying it will empower banks to lend more to the economy.

CIBN President, Dr. Ken Opara stated this yesterday while speaking at the annual lecture of the institute in Lagos, with the theme “Improving Availability of Credit in the Nigerian Real Economy: The Critical Importance of Liquidity.”

Okpara noted that the volume of credit to the real sector activities namely agriculture, manufacturing and services is low compared to their critical role in driving economic growth.

Consequently, he called for more credit to the real sector, saying, “I   propose that we consider offering more credit to these key sectors and particularly the agriculture sector. It is for this reason that the Recapitalization exercise is a welcome development.

“The recently announced upward review of the Minimum Capital Requirements of Nigeria by the Central Bank of Nigeria would further empower banks to extend more credit to the economy’s productive sectors.”

To address these factors impeding credit to the real sector, Okpara suggested that, “The government needs to improve further the ease of doing business and infrastructural development, such as power, roads, rail networks, etc.

“Setting up industrial centres where these companies can co-habit and share common infrastructure. Harmonize and reduce the various taxes and levies, including locating them in a single hub.

“Banks need to be deliberate in de-risking these companies via Capacity building programmes, and Advisory services.

Specialised Financial Institutions can be created in addition to the Bank of Industry (BOI), especially credit guarantee agencies and risk-sharing institutions, to further facilitate the deepening of credit as practiced in countries such as China which significantly transformed its economy.


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Shareholders Approve $1.5bn Capital Raising for Access Holdings

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The shareholders of Access Holdings Plc have unanimously approved the company’s proposed capital raising of $1.5 billion through a bond or share sale and a further N365 billion via a Rights Issue to fund its ambitious growth plans.

The shareholders also ratified the appointments of Aigboje Aig-Imoukhuede, Olusegun Ogbonnewo, and Ojinika Olaghere as Non-Executive Directors.

The appointment of Aig-Imoukhuede as the Chairman of Access Holdings was praised by the shareholders, who pointed to his rich history of success with the institution, having transformed it into Nigeria’s biggest lender by market value alongside late Herbert Wigwe.

The shareholders stated that Aigboje’s leadership was instrumental in driving the institution’s growth during the 2004 recapitalisation of the banking industry led by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) under the leadership of its former Governor, Prof. Charles Soludo.

“We are thrilled with Aigboje Aig-Imoukhuede’s return to the role of Chairman. His proven track record, experience, and strategic insights position him as the ideal leader to steer Access Holdings towards meeting its lofty targets.

During his tenure as CEO, particularly during the recapitalisation directive by the CBN, he steered Access Bank to raise an impressive $2 billion in capital, and this demonstrates his capacity to, once again, lead Access Holdings towards successfully achieving the objectives of our planned capital raise and Rights Issue targets,” said Chief Sunny Nwosu, Chairman Emeritus of the Independent Shareholders Association of Nigeria (ISAN).

In line with the Group’s strong financial performance, the payment of a final dividend of N1.80 kobo per every N0.50 kobo ordinary share for the 2023 financial year was approved, marking a 28 per cent improvement from the corresponding period in 2022.

 


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Confusion as CBN Deletes, Reinstates Tweet Calling Crypto-Related Directive Fake

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has been forced to deny a report saying it issued a directive requiring all banks and financial institutions to identify individuals or entities engaging in transactions with cryptocurrency exchanges and to ensure that such accounts are put on Post No Debit (PND) instruction for six months.

Confusion as CBN Deletes, Reinstates Tweet Calling Crypto-Related Directive Fake

A “Post No Debit” instruction is a directive issued by a bank or financial institution to restrict certain transactions on a customer’s account.

When a PND instruction is in place, the account holder is prohibited from making debit transactions, meaning they cannot withdraw funds or make payments using the affected account.

Confusion occurred when the central bank denied the story on X but then deleted the denial.

The alleged circular also stated that regulated financial institutions engaged in crypto or facilitating payments for crypto exchanges are prohibited.

However, this contradicts an earlier ban lifted in December 2023, allowing banks to facilitate transactions for crypto exchanges.

The central bank lifted the ban nearly two years after enforcing a comprehensive ban on banks engaging with digital currencies.

According to a statement by the CBN at the time, it recognized that the increasing global demand and adoption of crypto make it unjustifiable to maintain the stringent restrictions imposed on financial institutions in 2021.

However, due to the swift devaluation of the naira and the subsequent inflation rate of 29.9%, the government shifted its attention to platforms offering cryptocurrency services.

It disabled websites associated with crypto trading that had gained notoriety for setting informal valuations for the naira.

Binance encountered significant scrutiny when the CBN raised concerns regarding “suspicious financial transactions” occurring through Binance Nigeria in 2023.

Olayemi Cardoso, governor, CBN, said $26 billion had passed through Nigeria via Binance in 2023 from unidentified sources and users.

Binance is facing further challenges in Nigeria, with its executive Tigran Gambaryan, who is based in the United States, being detained in the country.

He’s facing five charges linked to money laundering following a meeting with Nigerian officials regarding Binance’s regulatory compliance.

Nadeem Anjarwalla, one of the executives who met with Nigerian officials about Binance’s regulatory issues, subsequently escaped custody and was tracked down to Kenya, where he faces extradition.

 


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