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FDI in Nigeria, Others Grow in 5 Years

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Africa’s share of global foreign direct investment (FDI) has grown over the past five years highlighting the growing interest from foreign investors, according to Ernst & Young’s third Africa Attractiveness Survey released Monday.

The report combines an analysis of international investment into Africa over the past five years with a 2013 survey of over 500 global business leaders about their views on the potential of the African market.

The latest data shows that despite a fall in project numbers from 867 in 2011 to 764 in 2012 — in line with the global trend — project numbers are still significantly higher than anything that preceded the peak of 2008. The continent’s global share of FDI has also grown from 3.2% in 2007 to 5.6% in 2012.

Mark Otty, Ernst & Young’s EMEIA Managing Partner said, “A process of democratization that has taken root across much of the continent; ongoing improvements to the business environment; exponential growth in trade and investment and substantial improvements in the quality of human life have provided a platform for the economic growth that a large number of African economies have experienced over the past decade.”

Despite the impact of the ongoing global economic situation, the size of the African economy has more than tripled since 2000.

The outlook also appears positive, with the region as a whole expected to grow by 4% for 2013 and 4.6% for 2014.

A number of African economies are predicted to remain among the fastest growing in the world for the foreseeable future.

Eighty-six percent of those with an established presence on the continent believe that Africa’s attractiveness as a place to do business will continue to improve.

Those surveyed rank Africa as the second most attractive regional investment destination in the world after Asia.

Increasing investment from emerging markets
Investment in FDI projects from developed markets fell by 20%.  Although FDI projects from the UK grew (by 9% year-on-year), those from the US and France — the other two leading developed market investors in Africa — were considerably down.

In contrast investments from emerging markets into Africa grew again in 2012, continuing the trend over the past three years.

In the period since 2007, the rate of FDI projects from emerging markets into Africa has grown at a healthy compound rate of over 21%.

In comparison investment from developed markets has grown at only 8%. The top contributors from the emerging markets are India (237), South Africa (235), the UAE (210), China (152), Kenya (113), Nigeria (78), Saudi Arabia (56) and South Korea (57) all among the top 20 investors over that period.

Intra-African investment has been particularly impressive during the same period, growing at 33% compound rate.

South Africa has been at the forefront of growth in intra-African trade and broader emerging market investment – (the single largest investor in FDI projects in 2012  outside of South Africa.)

Kenya and Nigeria have also invested heavily but it is expected that others such as Angola, for example, with a $5b sovereign wealth fund, will become increasingly prominent investors across the continent over the next few years.

Ajen Sita, Ernst & Young’s Africa Managing Partner comments, “There is a growing confidence and optimism among Africans themselves about the continent’s progress and future.”

There has also been an important shift in emphasis in investment into the continent over the past few years, in terms of both destination markets and sectors.

While investment into North Africa has largely stagnated, FDI projects into Sub-Saharan Africa have grown at a compound rate of 22% since 2007. Among the star performers attracting growing numbers of projects have been Ghana, Nigeria, Kenya, Tanzania, Zambia Mozambique, Mauritius and South Africa.

Perception versus reality
Our 2013 Africa Attractiveness Survey shows some progress in terms of investor perceptions since the inaugural survey in 2011.

The majority of respondents are positive about the progress made and the outlook for Africa. Africa has also gained ground relative to other global regions.

In 2011 Africa was only ranked ahead of two other regions, while this year it ranked ahead of five other regions (the former Soviet States, Eastern Europe, Western Europe, the Middle East and Central America).

However, there still remains a stark perception gap between those respondents who are already doing business in Africa versus those that have not yet invested in the continent. Those with an established business in Africa are overwhelmingly positive.

They understand the real rather than perceived operational risks, have experienced the progress made and see the opportunities for future growth.

Eight-six percent of these business leaders believe that Africa’s attractiveness as a place to do business will continue to improve, and they rank Africa as the second most attractive regional investment destination in the world after Asia.

In contrast, those with no business presence in Africa are far more negative about Africa’s progress and prospects.

Only 47% of these respondents believe Africa’s attractiveness will improve over the next three years, and they rank Africa as the least attractive investment destination in the world.

The two fundamental challenges that are present for those already present or those looking to invest in Africa are transport and logistics infrastructure and anti-bribery and corruption. However, moves are being made on both accounts to help allay fears of investors.

Infrastructure gaps, particularly relating to logistics and electricity, are consistently cited as the biggest challenges by those doing business in Africa.

At a macro level, too, Africa’s growth will be inherently constrained until the infrastructure deficit is bridged.

The flip side of this challenge, however, is that strong growth has been occurring despite such infrastructure constraints.

This indicates the potential to not only sustain, but accelerate growth as the gap is narrowed. Our analysis indicates that in 2012 there were over 800 active infrastructure projects across different sectors in Africa, with a combined value in excess of US$700b. The large majority of infrastructure projects are related to power (37%) and transport (41%).

Moving away from extractive industries
Due to volatile nature of commodity prices, an over-dependency on a few key sectors clearly raises questions about the sustainability of growth.

Despite perceptions to the contrary, less than one third of Africa’s growth has come from natural resources.

The trend of growing diversification continues, with an ever increasing emphasis on services, manufacturing and infrastructure-related activities. In 2007 extractive industries represented 8% of FDI projects and 26% of capital invested in Africa; in 2012, it was a mere 2% of projects and 12% of capital.

In comparison, services accounted for 70% of projects in 2012 (up from 45% in 2007), and manufacturing activities accounted for 43% of capital invested in 2012 (up from 22% in 2007).

Mining and metals is still perceived by survey respondents as the sector with the highest growth potential in Africa, but the number of respondents who believe this (26%) is down from 38% in 2012 and 44% in 2011.

In contrast, interest in African infrastructure projects is clearly increasing, with 21% of respondents identifying this as growth sector versus 14% last year and only 4% in 2011.

Other sectors where there has been a noticeable shift include ICT (14%, up from 8% last year), financial services (13%, up from 6% last year), and education (which has come from virtually nowhere to register 10% this year).

Mark commented, “These changing perceptions of relative sector attractiveness in Africa reflect the changing fundamentals of many Africa economies: the diversification of both sources of growth (for example, the increasing contribution of services and the growing consumer class), and of the actual FDI flowing into these economies.”

South Africa most attractive for foreign investors but others hot on its heels

The large majority of respondents view South Africa as the most attractive African country in which to do business: 41% of all respondents put South Africa in first place, while 61% included it in their top three.

The primary reasons for South Africa’s popularity appear to be it relatively well developed infrastructure, a stable political environment and a relatively large domestic market. The next most popular countries were Morocco (20% placing in the top three, and 8% in first place), Nigeria (also 20% in top three, and 6% in first place), Egypt (15% top three and 5% first), and Kenya (15% top three and 4% first). In general, these rankings align with emerging regional hubs for doing business across different parts of Africa.

Looking ahead
Ajen concludeed, “With an increasingly solid foundation of economic, political and social reform, together with resilient growth rates, we are confident that the continent as a whole is on a sustainable upward trajectory. This direction of travel, rather than the current destination, is what is most important.

“A critical mass of African economies will continue on this journey. Despite the fact that there will undoubtedly be bumps in the road, there is a strong probability that a number of these economies will follow the same development paths that some of the Asian and other Rapid Growth Markets have over the past 30 years. By the 2040s, we have no doubt that the likes of Nigeria, Ghana, Angola, Egypt, Kenya, Ethiopia and South Africa will be considered among the growth powerhouses of the global economy.”


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E-Financial

Lagos State Appoints MoneyMaster as Payment Partner for “Ounje Eko” Programme

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“Ounje Eko”, the food price discount initiative of the Lagos State Government, has appointed leading payment service bank, MoneyMaster Payment Service Bank Limited (MMPSB), as its collaborator in the bid to ensure ease of payments at the market.

MoneyMaster is one of the Central Bank of Nigeria-licensed Payment Service Banks (PSBs) to promote financial inclusion across Nigeria.

Under the partnership, MMPSB will apply its cutting-edge payment solution to engender easy payment and reconciliation in order to make   the experiences of Lagosians who will be getting their food supplies from the markets pleasurable. Its payment solution is also all-encompassing and ensures real time value to payment destinations.

The mobile bank was appointed as the collection and payment partner for “Ounje Eko” Food Markets programme which is a government initiative serving the five divisions of Lagos State. Consequent on this, MoneyMaster Payment Service Bank will collect payments in 57 LCDAs in the state.

The partnership gives credence to the quality of payment solutions that MoneyMaster is reputed for in its services to its growing business clientele in private and public sectors.

 


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E-Financial

CBN, EFCC Probe Banks, Firms over Alleged Forex Racketeering

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), is investigating irregular foreign exchange transactions and forward contracts valued at approximately $2.4 billion.

CBN, EFCC Probe Banks, Firms over Alleged Forex Racketeering

The  inquiry follows an extensive audit by Deloitte, which scrutinized $7 billion in dollar debts accumulated under the bank’s previous leadership.

In the aftermath of the 294th Monetary Policy Committee meeting in Abuja, Yemi Cardoso, governor of CBN,  disclosed to journalists that the investigation, supported by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, among other security bodies, aims to clarify the legitimacy of these FX allocations identified as problematic by the audit.

“It was determined that a number of these transactions did not qualify…they were outright illegal. The law enforcement agencies are now looking into those transactions that as far as we are concerned, are not valid to be paid,” Cardoso detailed, emphasizing the unlawful nature of these forex deals.

The crux of the investigation lies in the audit findings that a significant portion of the scrutinized transactions lacked proper documentation and, in many instances, were deemed outright illegal.

However, the unfolding investigation has raised concerns within the organized private sector, with some entities contemplating legal action against commercial banks for unresolved forex bids.

Despite these tensions, Governor Cardoso reassures that the foreign exchange market remains open and transparent, inviting stakeholders to address their forex needs through the official channels.

Furthermore, Cardoso clarified the distribution of fertilizers to farmers as a one-off measure and not indicative of a shift back to direct interventions by the CBN, underscoring a commitment to strategic, regulatory governance rather than direct market involvement.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


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CBN Urges Banks to Expedite Action on Recapitalisation

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has directed deposit money banks in the country to expedite action to increase their capital base from the current ₦25bn.

CBN Urges Banks to Expedite Action on Recapitalisation

Olayemi Cardoso, governor of CBN

Olayemi Cardoso, governor of CBN, stated this during the apex bank’s 294th meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) on Tuesday in Abuja, when the MPC hiked the interest rate by 22.75% to 24.75%.

The apex bank chief said the MPC examined developments in the banking sector and expressed satisfaction that the industry remained stable. The committee, however, said to guard against risk, commercial banks in the country should accelerate their recapitalisation efforts.

Cardoso said, “The MPC also reviewed developments in the banking system and noted that the industry remains safe, sound, and stable. The committee thus called on the bank to sustain its surveillance and ensure compliance of banks with existing regulatory and macro-potential guidelines.

“The MPC also enjoined the banks to expedite actions on the recapitalisation of banks to strengthen the system against potential risks in an increasingly globalised world.”

 

 

 

 


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