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Forex: Overview on the 2017 Key Market Themes

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Hussein Sayed, chief market strategist at FXTM
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Hussein Sayed, chief market strategist at FXTM provides an overview on the 2017 key market themes. Whether you consider 2016 a good or a bad year, it was by no doubt the year of surprises. Not just because Donald Trump was elected the 45th president of the United Stated or because the UK decided to leave the EU, but the markets’ reactions to these events were even more surprising and most forecasters got it wrong.

A new year has started and many questions remain to be answered; here are some of the most asked questions for 2017: Will the Trump rally carry on? How many rate hikes will the Fed deliver? What is the future of the UK and the EU? Will OPEC finally balance the oil markets?

Will The Trump Rally Carry On?
Following the election of Donald Trump on November 8, all U.S. major indices recorded new highs.

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 8%, S&P 500 and Nasdaq composite gained 5%, and the small-cap stock market index Russell 2000 outperformed its peers rising by more than 13%.

From a market valuation perspective, very few may disagree that stocks are expensive, but the expected combination of fiscal stimulus and deregulation for some sectors under Trump’s presidency were the main catalysts for the rally. Of course, financial markets tend to price in events before they occur, but this time I believe investors have priced in most of the good news, and it requires very strong corporate profit growth to keep this bull market alive.

Predicting the end of the bull market is a tough call, but the downside risk in 2017 is likely to be larger than the upside potential. If U.S. policy makers succeed in delivering the anticipated growth we can see another 5 – 10% gains in U.S. stocks, but failure to do so will cause a steep selloff that could exceed 20%.

Day traders may be luckier than investors in 2017 as a new indicator has been added to their watch list: Trump’s twitter account.

On December 6, Trump tweeted “Boeing is building a brand new 747 Air Force One for future presidents, but costs are out of control, more than $4 billion. Cancel order!”, few seconds later Boeing stock wiped almost $1 billion from its market cap. We expect to see more of these tweets in 2017 and algorithms will probably require long time to put them into play, leaving retail traders with opportunities to profit from such market disruptions.

How Many Rate Hikes Will the Fed Deliver?
2016 kicked off with the expectation that four rate hikes would occur, but only one was delivered in December.

Although it was anticipated that the Federal Reserve will be more cautious in their forward guidance for 2017, December’s meeting took many economists by surprise as they hinted for three rate hikes.

Since the financial crisis in 2008 the Fed has got many things wrong, whether it is forecasting rate hikes, economic growth and inflation levels, and now with a new administration to take office on January 20, this could make the Fed’s projections even more complicated.

Inflation has always been the main justification for low interest rates, but now, even before Trump takes office, a couple of inflation gauges are running above 2%. The Fed did not account for any fiscal stimulus measures in their most recent projections, suggesting that huge shifts in expectations may be seen.

The rising U.S. dollar which is currently at a 14-year high is another source of worry for the Fed, and tightening too fast will lead to even stronger dollar hitting U.S. exports and multinational companies’ profits.

If Trump’s measures were passed and economic growth picked up, the Fed will have few options, either tightening monetary policy more aggressively, or to fall behind the curve and let the fixed income market lead the way, but three rate hikes in 2017 is my base case. Either way the dollar is likely to remain strong as divergence in monetary policies will continue to widen.

Future of the UK and the EU?
Hard, Soft or Grey Brexit. This was the most argued topic in the past six months, and until now there’s no clear path on what direction the UK will move.

The pound ended 2016 17.5% lower against the US dollar since June 23 and there’s lot of speculation on how it will end in 2017. Of course, much will depend on the path Britain will choose.

Theresa May promised to trigger Article 50 by the end of March, but we still need to hear from the Supreme Court on whether the UK government needs parliamentary approval before starting the withdrawal from the EU.

The delay in triggering Article 50 will be positive in the short term for sterling, and negotiations may last well beyond 2017 on the terms of Brexit.

Meanwhile investors will be focusing on the economic developments and the direction of the Bank of England’s monetary policy, which will probably be the second major central bank to raise rates after the Fed.

Politics within the EU will rule investment decisions in 2017. Germany and France, the two largest economies will hold elections amid the rise of Eurosceptic candidates.

Italy is likely to see an early vote, after the resignation of Matteo Renzi last month, and the Five Star Movement has vowed that if it wins power it will hold a referendum on whether Italy should leave the Eurozone.

Although many polls indicate that far right candidates are still behind, nothing should be taken for granted after Trump won the U.S. presidency and Britain voted to leave the EU. Expect to see more pressure on the Euro and look out for parity against the dollar in the first six months. 

Will OPEC finally balance the oil market?
After hitting a low of $27 a barrel in February 2016, Brent prices more than doubled by the end of year and many investment banks still see further increase in prices for 2017.

OPEC’s decision to cut its output by 1.2 million barrels a day starting January, and non-OPEC producers to cut 558K barrels for the next six months to drain record global oil inventories led Brent prices to post its first yearly increase since 2012.

Whether more appreciation is to be seen in 2017 will depend on multiple factors, and the biggest one currently looming is compliance to production cuts. It’s in no one’s interest not to comply, but historic figures show that delivering on previous production cuts has been poor.

U.S. producers are another element to be focused on, how fast shale may come back is a key component to be considered in the price equation.

Although Trump has made the energy sector part of his economic growth plan, I believe it won’t have a lot of impact if prices don’t hold up. The dollar strength will likely impact the demand side, as continued strength will make oil more expensive in other currencies.

With all these unknows we will likely see prices moving in tight ranges in the first quarter until we get a clearer picture.

 


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E-Financial

Moody’s Upgrades Ecobank’s Outlook to Stable

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Moody’s has upgraded the outlook on Ecobank Transnational Incorporated’s long-term issuer and senior unsecured debt ratings to stable from negative.

In the latest rating commentary, made available to media on Thursday, Moody’s also affirmed the pan-African banking group’s B3/Not Prime long- and short-term issuer ratings; B3 senior unsecured debt rating; b2 notional Baseline Credit Assessment and b1 Adjusted BCA.

ETI’s subsidiaries operate across 38 countries, including 35 African countries, and total assets of $28.9bn as of March 2025, details from the rating note highlighted. Moody’s said the decision to change the outlook to stable on the long-term issuer and senior unsecured ratings reflects ETI’s resilient financial performance.

The rating upgrade also takes into consideration higher dividends being upstreamed to ETI, resulting in lower double leverage and reduced refinancing risk.

The rating adjustment also reflects an expectation that the recapitalisation process of Ecobank Nigeria Limited will be completed by the end of 2025, with limited impact on the group’s financial fundamentals.

“The stable outlook also captures our expectation that a series of capital-boosting initiatives and actions to cure Ecobank Nigeria’s total capital position will be completed before the end of 2025”, according to the ratings agency.

In May 2025, ETI received shareholder approval to raise $250 million in Additional Tier 1 (AT1) capital and announced the launch of the transaction effective 9 July 2025, of which a portion is expected to be downstreamed to Ecobank Nigeria as AT1 capital during Q3 2025.

Ecobank Nigeria’s plan to raise $200m in AT1 capital was noted in the rating note. The ratings analysts said they consider

“We also note that Ecobank Nigeria’s recent successful offer to tender $150m of its February 2026 $300 million notes and consent to remove the capital adequacy ratio covenant from this bond’s terms alleviates risks of an event of default in Nigeria that would trigger cross default at the ETI level. Over the past year, ETI has shown resilience in its financial performance, which supports our change in outlook to stable. Liquidity risks are being moderated by the group’s gradually improving profitability during 2024 and Q1-2025.

“This has translated into a 22 per cent increase in dividends upstreamed to ETI during 2024, these being received from 22 dividend-paying subsidiaries compared to just 14 in 2021,” the rating commentary revealed.

In turn, albeit high, ETI’s double leverage ratio, which measures the liquidity risk taken on by the holding company, as a result of it borrowing in order to invest in the equity of its subsidiaries, has eased to 168 per cent as of December 2024 from 173 per cent in 2023.

Additionally, the stable outlook reflects reduced liquidity risk at the holding company level with the refinancing of short-term liabilities in 2024 with longer-term funding.

Moody’s said this is underpinned by demonstrated market access, notably through senior unsecured notes issuance of $400m in October 2024 and a tap increase of $125m in May 2025, maturing in October 2029.

ETI’s B3 long-term issuer ratings affirmation reflects the affirmation of the group’s b2 notional BCA; the affirmation of the group’s b1 adjusted BCA as captured by a one-notch uplift for affiliate support, reflecting Moody’s assessment of a moderate probability that the firm’s major institutional shareholders would extend support to the group. Moody’s said asset quality for the group has improved over recent years.

 


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SEC Grants “No objection” to N323Bn First Holdco Shares Deal

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The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) granted a “no objection” to the N323.45 billion First Holdco off-market deal that occurred on July 16.

The regulator in a statement clarified its role in the deal, which is famous for being the largest on the NGX, following public speculation over the nature of its involvement.

In a statement released Thursday, the Commission stated it conducted a comprehensive review. This review was carried out in line with existing laws and regulatory requirements. The capital market regulator also emphasised that there were no subsequent requests for additional information. It added that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) made no further inquiries after the transaction was finalised.

Addressing circulating reports, the SEC noted that its communication with the parties involved should not be misconstrued as a query. Instead, it described the correspondence as part of an automated compliance mechanism designed to ensure transparency and proper closure of large-scale transactions in the Nigerian capital market.

“The Commission remains firmly committed to its mandate of regulating a fair, orderly, and efficient market; protecting investors; and fostering capital formation in Nigeria,” the statement added.

The June 16 transaction involved the sale of over 10.4 billion shares in First Bank Holdings by entities linked to Oba Otudeko and Tunde Hassan-Odukale to RC Investment Management. RC Investment has since been identified as a trustee acting under an arrangement coordinated by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and First Bank Holdings.

Otudeko and Hassan-Odukale, both former chairmen of First Bank of Nigeria, were key figures in the long-running power tussle for control of the lender.

The leadership struggle dates back to 2021, when billionaire investor Femi Otedola entered the fray and eventually emerged as chairman of First Bank Holdings. Otudeko, through his investment vehicle Barbican Capital, had taken legal action against the CBN and First Holdco, challenging the refusal to acknowledge his claimed majority stake.

 


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Kuda Unveils New Wallet for Multiple Currencies

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As the first currency supported by the functionality, Kuda launched an update for its app that allows users to send, receive, hold, and convert USD directly.

Kuda Unveils New Wallet for Multiple Currencies

Babs Ogundeyi, MD, Kuda

The action comes in response to growing consumer demand for currency-neutral spending, savings, and income management.

As part of its expansion strategy, digital bank Kuda has introduced a multicurrency wallet to assist Africans who live, work, and travel internationally.

Users may keep, fund, and convert between five main currencies—the US dollar, British pound, euro, Nigerian naira, and Canadian dollar—all within a single wallet on the Kuda app with this application, which is still undergoing testing.

“The new wallet is designed to simplify the fragmented experience Africans face when managing money across different countries and currencies,” said Nosa Oyegun, senior vice president, Business Banking, Kuda, during a media parley in Lagos.

“People no longer reside in a single nation. Due to their global reach, Africans should be able to transfer their money with ease, Oyegun stated.

He claims that eligible customers outside of Nigeria may already access the wallet on Android smartphones, and an iOS deployment is planned.

He clarified that Kuda purposefully decided against developing a distinct wallet app.

Customers will be able to log in as normal, open foreign currency balances, convert money when needed, and send or spend money without switching platforms because it will be integrated into the core Kuda experience.

More than N100 billion entered Kuda accounts from LemFi in 2024 alone.

“This wallet is just our first step in acknowledging and supporting the fact that our customers are already living this cross-border reality,” Oyegun stated.

Kuda wants to give people a smooth financial tool that suits their lifestyle, not only currency exchange.

By removing the bottlenecks involved in the need to switch between various apps or financial services, the wallet will enable users from overseas to send money home, exchange currencies, and continue spending from the same account when they visit Nigeria.

Oyegun emphasized throughout the event that the wallet also takes client retention into account.

Kuda plans to keep helping people who move overseas as they adjust to life in other nations rather than losing them.

He further claimed that these users had not churned. “They simply switched nations. We wish to continue servicing them.

Kuda is now one of many African fintech companies developing products for cross-border use cases as a result of the move.

Oyegun pointed out that Kuda’s goal is to become a financial partner for Africans wherever they may be, going beyond simply exchanging currencies.

The bank’s growth trajectory is reflected in Kuda’s first-quarter 2025 performance, which was disclosed during the briefing. Customer confidence in the company’s digital-first strategy was strengthened when it recorded N453 billion in savings deposits and processed N8.4 trillion in total transaction volume.

With the new feature being introduced on the app, Kuda Microfinance Bank hopes to assist online business owners, freelancers, and remote workers who make money in USD with the recently added feature, which is currently undergoing testing.

Users can choose to accept USD payments directly or convert naira into USD using the Spend tab.

In the near future, GBP and EUR will be recognized as alternative currencies, according to the financial institution.

Additionally, in Nigeria, where inflation is severe, having USD on hand might be advantageous and convenient for people.

More Nigerians have recently begun to use digital platforms to improve the stability of their financial status.

For the majority of them, managing multiple currencies—whether via remote work, cryptocurrency, or international trade—has become the standard. Kuda Bank aims to meet these demands and grow its business to meet the demands of the market.

The financial institution’s continued dedication to providing solutions that give its users the best possible experience which is demonstrated by the multicurrency wallet feature.

Speaking about the project, Kuda representatives emphasized that the new wallet was created to make it easier for Africans to manage their money across various nations and currencies.

Customers can log in as normal, open foreign currency balances, convert funds, and spend or send money without switching platforms thanks to the integration of this feature within Kuda.

Along with currency conversion, Kuda plans to provide a financial tool that eliminates the need for users to switch between apps or financial services by enabling users from other countries to send money to Nigeria, convert currencies, and spend from the same account when they visit.


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