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FXTM Analysis: Is Market Volatility Making A Return?

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FXTM Research Analyst Lukman Otunuga comments on Asian stock movements, following rising US – China tensions over North Korea.

Asian stocks concluded lower on Tuesday while European equities were under pressure as geopolitical tensions stemming from North Korea’s missile launch have encouraged investors to develop a more cautious stance.

It appears that geopolitical risks are starting to reappear in the headlines, something that has been complemented by reports that President Trump believes China should be doing more to contain the situation.

With the unexpected surprises from last week sparking discussions of volatility making a return, the developments seen today could fuel the speculation further. The re-emergence of geopolitical tensions in Asia, Brexit developments and ongoing political instability in Washington could make for wild trading conditions in the third quarter of 2017.

Yen supported by caution
The Japanese Yen appreciated against its major counterparts during early trading on Tuesday amid risk aversion, with investors adopting a cautious approach following reports of North Korea conducting a long-range missile test. In times of uncertainty and trouble, the Yen remains a trader’s best friend and this was illustrated today when the currency gained ground against the US Dollar.

Although the USDJPY eventually clawed back recent losses as of writing, further downside could be expected if uncertainty and geopolitical risk accelerate the flight to safety. From a technical standpoint, the USDJPY has found some resistance at 113.50. A failure of bulls to secure control above this level could open a path lower back towards 111.60.

WTI Crude smashes into $47
WTI bulls crashed into a brick wall in the form of $47 on Tuesday, following reports that OPEC’s production in June climbed to its highest levels so far in 2017, as Nigeria and Libya pumped more oil.

It’s quite remarkable how the seemingly harmless supply cut exemptions for Libya and Nigeria are threatening to sabotage the efforts made by the rest of the group to rebalance the saturated markets.

With rising oil production in the US another painful piece of the equation that continues to compound to the oversupply concerns, WTI Crude is at risk of remaining depressed for a prolonged period of time. Although WTI Crude has staged an impressive rebound from the $42 level, sellers may be enticed to exploit the technical bounce to install renewed rounds of selling, with $45 acting as a level of interest. From a technical standpoint, the $47-48 region should act as a check point for bears to jump back in.

Commodity spotlight – Gold
Gold bulls found support in the form of geopolitical risk during Tuesday’s trading session as the metal rebounded from $1220. Although the current market anxiety and flight to safety has the ability to support Gold, the sharp $23 depreciation observed on Monday will be difficult for bulls to claw back.

Short term bears remain in control with Gold at risk of depreciating further if the Greenback continues to stabilize. From a technical standpoint, the yellow metal has turned bearish on the daily charts. Weakness below $1220 may open a path towards $1214.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


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E-Financial

Reps Investigate 25 Insurance Firms for Financial Infractions

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The House of Representatives has launched an investigation into 25 insurance companies over alleged financial infractions that have reportedly led to the loss of hundreds of billions of naira in government revenue.

Chairman of the House Sub-Committee on Capital Market and Institutions, Hon. Kwamoti Laori, made the disclosure on Monday during a meeting with representatives of the affected companies at the National Assembly Complex in Abuja.

Laori said the probe was prompted by petitions accusing the companies of violating statutory provisions in their operations, thereby shortchanging the federal government.

“This committee is saddled with the responsibility of addressing a petition based on infractions by these insurance companies regarding their operations and non-compliance with certain statutory provisions,” he said.

“These infractions have led to the federal government losing hundreds of billions of naira in revenue. That is why the companies were invited—to either confirm or refute the liabilities ascribed to them.”

According to the lawmaker, each of the 25 companies had been formally notified of their respective liabilities and summoned to explain their financial dealings.

“The essence of this engagement is to ensure that what is due to the federal government from these private entities is fully remitted,” Laori added.

He emphasized that it is within the constitutional mandate of the National Assembly to track government revenue and block leakages, particularly in sectors involving private sector collaboration.

The committee also frowned at some of the companies’ attempt to stall the investigation by resorting to legal action.

“Some of the companies have gone to court and served the House with court processes. It is now up to us and the House leadership to examine those court papers,” Laori said. “If the court action does not affect the core of our mandate, we will proceed. If it does, we’ll await the court’s decision.”

He criticized what he described as a strategy aimed at obstructing parliamentary oversight.

“Going to court appears to be a deliberate attempt to throw a spanner in the works of the National Assembly,” he stated.

Laori also expressed dissatisfaction with the failure of some company heads to appear in person, instead sending representatives who were unable to respond to critical questions.

“We have insisted that Chief Operating Officers (COOs) must appear in person. One of the COOs sent someone who couldn’t answer any of the allegations—this is unacceptable,” he said. “It is the same people that will later accuse the National Assembly of not doing its job.”

The committee chairman did not spare the industry’s regulator—the National Insurance Commission (NAICOM)—which he accused of negligence.

“NAICOM has a supervisory role, and if they were doing their job effectively, we wouldn’t be here conducting this investigation. They need to sit up,” Laori said.

 

Meanwhile, 17 of the companies currently in court sent a legal representative, Mr. Abimbola Kayode, to the hearing on Monday.

 


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Naira Slides Again, Hits ₦1,532.34/$ Despite CBN’s Dollar Push

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The naira closed the past week weaker than the previous one, as it depreciated by 0.14 per cent week-on-week to settle at 1,532.34/$ at the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market.

This weakening came despite the naira rebounding to a four-month high on the first trading day to close at 1,518.88/$. After that, it weakened to 1,530.25/$, then lower to 1,533.11/$ before gaining some strength to close the week at 1,532.34/$ at the official market.

During the past week, the highest amount that the naira traded for was 1,538/$, and the lowest was 1,515/$ on the NFEM.

At the parallel market, the currency closed trading within the band of 1,535.00/$ and 1,544.00/$1.

Analysts have maintained that the intervention of the Central Bank of Nigeria and improvement in the foreign exchange liquidity were essential to stabilising the naira at the FX market.

Cowry Assets Management Limited, in its weekly market report, averred that the naira had recorded mixed trading across the markets as it appreciated slightly by 0.06 per cent week-on-week to close at 1,544.00/$1 at the parallel market while closing in the red zone at the official market.

“The divergent movements reflect ongoing supply-demand imbalances and the evolving FX liquidity landscape,” stated the analysts, who, however, maintained that the naira looks to record further gains as improved oil output and elevated prices drive higher dollar inflows, which could sustain the current pace of reserve accretion.

“The positive oil earnings outlook, combined with steady capital inflows, should offer continued support for the naira and enhance near-term FX market stability,” the report added.

Recent data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission shows that the average daily crude oil production (excluding condensates) rose by 3.6 per cent to 1.51 million barrels per day in June 2025 from 1.45 mbpd in May. This marks the first time in five months that Nigeria has met its OPEC production quota, reflecting improvements in operational efficiencies and security around key oil-producing assets.

AIICO Capital Limited, in its weekly report, noted that the CBN had intervened intermittently in the FX market in the past week.

It stated, “Dollar sales early and late in the week helped maintain relative stability. The naira closed at 1,532.34/$, down 13.6 bps w/w. Reserves rose by $422m to $37.85bn” as of Thursday from $37.43bn in the previous week.

It is expected that the naira will likely hold its current range amid better liquidity, while markets weigh potential FX impacts from the Monetary Policy Committee’s decision starting Monday (today).

Analysts are split on what the decision of the MPC should be regarding the benchmark. On one side, doves are calling for a modest rate cut, pointing to cooling inflation, a more stable naira, and signs of reform traction. On the other hand, hawks are warning that premature easing could undo all the gains of FX reforms and decelerating inflation, especially with food supply shocks and global risk still very much in the picture.

“For now, traders are positioning around the edges, but the real signal will come from the tone of the communique,” Comercio Partners asserted.


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Fidelity Bank to Empower 100 SMEs Across Nigeria with Digital Tools

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As part of its unwavering commitment to digitally transform Nigeria’s small and medium-scale enterprises (SMEs), leading financial institution Fidelity Bank is set to empower entrepreneurs across the country with cutting-edge digital tools designed to streamline operations, boost productivity, and drive sustainable growth.

Through the Fidelity SME Empowerment Program (FSEP), the bank will equip 100 growth-ready entrepreneurs with a comprehensive digital toolkit that includes: a POS desktop system, access to ERPRev software, receipt printer & barcode scanner; inventory & management tools. business training and support; free fidelity pos with branding and onboarding assistance

Interested entrepreneurs can apply via: https://bit.ly/SMEEmpowermentprogram2025

Commenting on the initiative, Osita Ede, Divisional Head, Product Development at Fidelity Bank Plc, stated:

“Studies have shown the exponential growth SMEs can achieve through digitalisation. As Nigeria’s leading SME partner, we are walking the talk by providing free digital toolkits to our customers. This aligns with our mission to help individuals grow, businesses thrive, and economies prosper.”

Fidelity Bank’s dedication to SME development is reflected in its broader vision of fostering economic inclusivity and building a resilient business ecosystem nationwide.

As part of its World SME Day 2025 celebrations, the bank granted free access to its renowned SME Hub in Gbagada, Lagos, and hosted a special mentoring session for female entrepreneurs led by CEO Dr. Nneka Onyeali-Ikpe. These efforts complement its regular masterclasses and ongoing support for small businesses and creatives.

Ranked among the best banks in Nigeria, Fidelity Bank Plc is a full-fledged Commercial Deposit Money Bank serving over 9.1 million customers through digital banking channels, its 255 business offices in Nigeria and United Kingdom subsidiary, FidBank UK Limited.

The Bank is the recipient of multiple local and international Awards, including the 2024 Excellence in Digital Transformation & MSME Banking Award by BusinessDay Banks and Financial Institutions (BAFI) Awards; the 2024 Most Innovative Mobile Banking Application award for its Fidelity Mobile App by Global Business Outlook, and the 2024 Most Innovative Investment Banking Service Provider award by Global Brands Magazine. Additionally, the Bank was recognized as the Best Bank for SMEs in Nigeria by the Euromoney Awards for Excellence and as the Export Financing Bank of the Year by the BusinessDay Banks and Financial Institutions (BAFI) Awards.


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