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FXTM Analysis: Pressures On The ‘Yellow Metal’

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FXTM Research Analyst Lukman Otunuga comments on the pressures on the yellow metal, while a strengthening Dollar continues to cap upside gains.

Global stocks were pressured during Friday’s trading session, as scepticism over the sustainability of the Trump-fuelled market rally and a sense of caution ahead of Yellen’s speech kept investors on edge.

Asian equity markets swiftly surrendered gains, while European shares descended into red territory as participants re-evaluated the likelihood of higher US interest rates. The bearish domino effect from Europe, coupled with risk aversion may limit gains on Wall Street later today.

Although the stock market rally has been phenomenal this quarter, investors should remain vigilant as the bearish attributes for a selloff still linger in the background. The political risks in Europe, Brexit woes and ongoing Trump uncertainties could still trigger a wave of risk aversion. While the upside momentum may continue to elevate global stocks to gravity-defying levels, an unexpected catalyst could trigger a selloff that brings an end to the overextended market rally.

Sterling Slides to Seven-Week Low
Sterling bears were unleashed on Friday following the unexpected decline in UK services in February, rekindling concerns that ongoing Brexit woes are negatively impacting the economy.

The visible slowdown in UK services which fell to 53.3 has added to the cocktail of soft economic releases this week that continue to pressure Sterling.

With sentiment towards Sterling firmly bearish, further downsides may be expected as anxiety heightens ahead of the Article 50 invocation this month. From a technical standpoint, the GBPUSD is heavily bearish on the daily charts and a breakdown below 1.2200 could encourage a further selloff lower towards 1.2050.

Janet Yellen in focus
The Greenback has been explosively bullish this trading week as expectations mount over the Federal Reserve raising US interest rates in March.  The hawkish chorus of Fed officials suggesting an imminent US rate increase has made the Dollar king, while positive US economic data continues to ensure the currency remains buoyed.

Much attention will be directed towards Yellen’s speech this evening, which could cement expectations of a March rate hike if she reiterates a similarly hawkish mantra as other Fed officials.

Technical traders may pay attention to how the Dollar Index reacts around the 102.00 regions. There is a possibility that previous resistance at 102.00 could transform into a dynamic support, which in turn encourages a further incline higher towards 102.50.

Gold Under Fresh Selling Pressure
The growing speculation of the Federal Reserve raising US interest rates in March has exposed Gold to downside shocks, with the metal booking its biggest one-day loss of 2017 during Thursday’s trading session. Sellers have exploited the repeated hawkish comments from Fed officials to pressure the yellow metal, while a strengthening Dollar continues to cap upside gains.

A scenario where the Greenback continues to appreciate amid the improving sentiment towards the US economy could leave Gold vulnerable to further losses.

Although the concerns over political risks in Europe, Brexit woes and Trump developments attract investors to safe haven assets in the medium to longer term, bears currently remain in control on the daily charts.

From a technical standpoint, further weakness below $1220 could encourage a selloff lower towards $1200.

Commodity spotlight – WTI Crude
Oil markets were vulnerable to losses on Thursday following reports that Russian crude production remained unchanged in February, rekindling concerns of weak compliance in the global output cut deal.

The sharp selloff was fuelled by US government data showing that domestic crude inventories ascended to record highs last week. Oil prices may come under increased pressure from the combination of oversupply fears resurfacing, US shale pumping oil incessantly and a strengthening Dollar.

From a technical standpoint, the breakdown below $53 on WTI Crude may open a path lower towards $52.

 


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E-Financial

Banks Lose N10Bn to Cyber Fraud in 2023’

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Stakeholders in the banking and financial ecosystem, yesterday, decried the surge in cyber fraud as Deposit Money Banks (DMBs) lost N10 billion in the second quarter of 2023, representing almost 300 per cent year-on-year compared to the previous year.

Banks Lose N10Bn to Cyber Fraud in 2023’

At a Mastercard forum convened to tackle fraud and cybersecurity threats in the financial sector, Kari Tukur, vice president, Customer Solutions Centre, East and West Africa at Mastercard, said despite the massive awareness and innovations aimed at combating cybersecurity, the amount lost last year by DBMs was “staggering”.

She said, “With Nigeria’s rapidly growing economic expansion, we are starting to see an increase in the adoption of digital financial services, and the financial landscape is also evolving at an astronomical speed.

“What was staggering for me was in spite of the huge investment around innovation, funding in the cyber space, DBMs lost almost N10bn in Q2 last year, and that was almost 300 per cent growth year-on-year when compared to the previous year.”

She noted that there was the need for collaboration among stakeholders “to combat this rising sophistication of cyber security threat.”

Tukur further stated that Mastercard was deeply committed to cyber security and fraud prevention within the payment industry, disclosing that the company invested $250m “to assist small businesses in addressing their cyber security needs.”

She disclosed that Mastercard payment portals incorporated multiple layers of security such as tokenisation technology, encryption and biometrical to stay ahead of cyber attackers.

She added that, “The sector continues to struggle with the aforementioned challenges, necessitating vigilance, proactive action and comprehensive security strategy, and Mastercard remains committed to providing safe, secure and seamless payment services and experiences for our partners and customers in Nigeria and beyond.”

Celestina Appeal, chairman, Committee of e-Business Industry Heads (CeBIH), stated that the total loss to the banking industry in the last couple of years totalled hundreds of billions of naira while Nigeria’s Consumer Awareness and Financial Enlightenment Initiative had projected a $6trn loss by 2030 to cybercrime within and outside Nigeria.

Represented by Mr Temitope Onibaniyi, secretary of the committee, she stated that the committee was ever-willing to collaborate with industry stakeholders to fight against the perpetrators who “constantly rob banks and other stakeholders in the payments industry of their hard-earned money.”

She said the need for collaboration could not be overemphasised as no individual organisation was immune to cyber security attacks.

 

 


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Tinubu Rejigs SEC Board, Makes New Appointments

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President Bola Tinubu has approved the appointment of some Nigerian professionals to the Board of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Tinubu Rejigs SEC Board, Makes New Appointments

This is contained in a statement issued by Ajuri Ngelale, special adviser to the President on Media and Publicity.

Tinubu appointed Mr. Mairiga Aliyu Katuka  as the Chairman of the board of SEC, while Mr. Emomotimi Agama has been appointed as the  Director-General of the board.

The president also appointed Frana Chukwuogor  as Executive Commissioner (Legal and Enforcement) of the board.

Tinubu further appointed Mr. Bola Ajomale as the Executive Commissioner (Operations) of the board, while Mrs. Samiya Hassan Usman is the Executive Commissioner (Corporate Services) of the board.

Also appointed into the board are Mr. Lekan Belo as Non-Executive Commissioner and Mr. Kasimu Garba Kurfi as Non-Executive Commissioner.

According to Ngelale, the president anticipated that “all members of the Board of this critical commission will bring to bear their wealth of experience and competence in advancing the commission’s core mandate of developing and regulating a capital market that is dynamic, fair, transparent, and efficient, to bolster investor confidence and contribute immeasurably to the nation’s economic development.”


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Ecobank Repays $500m Eurobond

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Ecobank has announced the successful repayment of its $500 million five-year Eurobond issued in 2019. According to a statement filed on the Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX), the Eurobond garnered considerable interest from a diverse range of global investors, including long-term development partners such as FMO and Proparco, who served as anchor investors.

Commenting on this achievement, Ecobank Group Financial Officer, Ayo Adepoju, said: “The bond was listed on the main market of the London Stock Exchange with a coupon rate of 9.5 per cent. The principal and interest repayment, totalling $524 million, was distributed to bondholders through the transaction agent on the bond maturity date of April 18, 2024.

“This inaugural bond we are retiring today was critical in introducing our firm to a wider array of global investors and contributed to the increased visibility of our brand in the capital markets.”

Against the backdrop of challenges posed by the global operating environment, including disruptions in the world supply chain and financial markets, Adepoju highlighted the Group’s resilience. He cited strong liquidity, a robust balance sheet, and a solid leadership team as key factors enabling Ecobank’s success.

He added that the successful repayment of the Eurobond underscores Ecobank’s commitment to financial stability and investor confidence, positioning the firm for continued growth and success in the global market.

 


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