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FXTM Analysis: Time to Buy U.S Dollar?

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FXTM Chief Market Strategist Hussein Sayed comments on the week ahead and what it might mean for the U.S. Dollar.

Six months ago it was hard to believe that the Greenback will be plummeting against all of its major peers. Back then the Fed was the only central bank tightening monetary policy, economic data was very supportive and most importantly Trump’s expected policies of cutting taxes as well as spending on infrastructure were meant to push the dollar higher.

The USD index peaked on 3 January and since then it has been moving in a downward trend, with declines exceeding 10%.

President Trump blamed himself for the dollar strength. He stated that it is the confidence in him causing the dollar to surge. Six months into his presidency has already passed without any significant legislative achievement and not even the ‘skinny repeal’ of Obamacare. Investors are apparently growing more concerned that his administration will not be able to agree on the rest of his agenda which is a clear sign that markets have lost the claimed confidence.

Although the U.S. GDP growth more than doubled in Q2 compared to Q1, the 2.6% expansion could not support the dollar as it came slightly short of expectations.

The Federal reserve also acknowledged that the balance sheet normalization would begin relatively soon, and one more rate hike still on the table this year. Still the USD continued to slide as investors remained skeptical of another rate hike in 2017 with CME’s Fedwatch indicating only a 46.8% chance of a rate hike in December.

Despite my belief that the U.S. dollar will remain weak for the rest of the year, all metric shows that the USD is massively oversold and will likely receive a little bounce from current levels. Friday’s nonfarm Payrolls will be crucial for the USD and if data does not disappoint we are likely to see a bounce.

However, the headline figure will not be as important as wage growth. Wage growth has been a major factor dragging inflation levels recently and accordingly a print of 0.3% or higher is required for the dollar to come back. Traders will likely position their trades before the NFP release. Thus it is important to monitor ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing along with the ADP release.

It is also an important week for Sterling with the Bank of England meeting on Thursday. After three MPC members voted for an immediate rate hike in June, followed by Hawkish statements from Carney and Haldane, markets started pricing in a rate hike in August.

However, data was not supportive enough and inflation pulled further away from the danger zone of 3% which will most likely keep the BoE on hold for now.

The base scenario for the meeting is to keep rates and asset purchase unchanged but the message from Carney and the tone of the quarterly inflation report will play a major role in GBP’s next move. If more than two members voted in favor of a rate hike and Carney continued to deliver hawkish messages, we might see the pound rallying towards 1.33.


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E-Financial

Shareholders Approve $1.5bn Capital Raising for Access Holdings

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The shareholders of Access Holdings Plc have unanimously approved the company’s proposed capital raising of $1.5 billion through a bond or share sale and a further N365 billion via a Rights Issue to fund its ambitious growth plans.

The shareholders also ratified the appointments of Aigboje Aig-Imoukhuede, Olusegun Ogbonnewo, and Ojinika Olaghere as Non-Executive Directors.

The appointment of Aig-Imoukhuede as the Chairman of Access Holdings was praised by the shareholders, who pointed to his rich history of success with the institution, having transformed it into Nigeria’s biggest lender by market value alongside late Herbert Wigwe.

The shareholders stated that Aigboje’s leadership was instrumental in driving the institution’s growth during the 2004 recapitalisation of the banking industry led by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) under the leadership of its former Governor, Prof. Charles Soludo.

“We are thrilled with Aigboje Aig-Imoukhuede’s return to the role of Chairman. His proven track record, experience, and strategic insights position him as the ideal leader to steer Access Holdings towards meeting its lofty targets.

During his tenure as CEO, particularly during the recapitalisation directive by the CBN, he steered Access Bank to raise an impressive $2 billion in capital, and this demonstrates his capacity to, once again, lead Access Holdings towards successfully achieving the objectives of our planned capital raise and Rights Issue targets,” said Chief Sunny Nwosu, Chairman Emeritus of the Independent Shareholders Association of Nigeria (ISAN).

In line with the Group’s strong financial performance, the payment of a final dividend of N1.80 kobo per every N0.50 kobo ordinary share for the 2023 financial year was approved, marking a 28 per cent improvement from the corresponding period in 2022.

 


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Confusion as CBN Deletes, Reinstates Tweet Calling Crypto-Related Directive Fake

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has been forced to deny a report saying it issued a directive requiring all banks and financial institutions to identify individuals or entities engaging in transactions with cryptocurrency exchanges and to ensure that such accounts are put on Post No Debit (PND) instruction for six months.

Confusion as CBN Deletes, Reinstates Tweet Calling Crypto-Related Directive Fake

A “Post No Debit” instruction is a directive issued by a bank or financial institution to restrict certain transactions on a customer’s account.

When a PND instruction is in place, the account holder is prohibited from making debit transactions, meaning they cannot withdraw funds or make payments using the affected account.

Confusion occurred when the central bank denied the story on X but then deleted the denial.

The alleged circular also stated that regulated financial institutions engaged in crypto or facilitating payments for crypto exchanges are prohibited.

However, this contradicts an earlier ban lifted in December 2023, allowing banks to facilitate transactions for crypto exchanges.

The central bank lifted the ban nearly two years after enforcing a comprehensive ban on banks engaging with digital currencies.

According to a statement by the CBN at the time, it recognized that the increasing global demand and adoption of crypto make it unjustifiable to maintain the stringent restrictions imposed on financial institutions in 2021.

However, due to the swift devaluation of the naira and the subsequent inflation rate of 29.9%, the government shifted its attention to platforms offering cryptocurrency services.

It disabled websites associated with crypto trading that had gained notoriety for setting informal valuations for the naira.

Binance encountered significant scrutiny when the CBN raised concerns regarding “suspicious financial transactions” occurring through Binance Nigeria in 2023.

Olayemi Cardoso, governor, CBN, said $26 billion had passed through Nigeria via Binance in 2023 from unidentified sources and users.

Binance is facing further challenges in Nigeria, with its executive Tigran Gambaryan, who is based in the United States, being detained in the country.

He’s facing five charges linked to money laundering following a meeting with Nigerian officials regarding Binance’s regulatory compliance.

Nadeem Anjarwalla, one of the executives who met with Nigerian officials about Binance’s regulatory issues, subsequently escaped custody and was tracked down to Kenya, where he faces extradition.

 


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NDIC Inaugurates Anti-Corruption and Transparency Unit

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Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC) has inaugurated an Anti-Corruption and Transparency Unit (ACTU) at its headquarters in Abuja.

NDIC Inaugurates Anti-Corruption and Transparency Unit

Speaking at the inauguration which was conducted by officials of the Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission (ICPC); Mr. Bello Hassan, managing director/chief executive, NDIC, said the corporation has a culture of zero tolerance for corruption, which is further strengthened by its core values of teamwork, respect and fairness, integrity, professionalism, and passion.

Represented by Mr. Mustapha M. Ibrahim, executive director, Operations, Hassan, said, the NDIC ACTU has strengthened the Corporation’s operational system through the implementation of various compliance measures to ensure ethics, integrity, transparency and accountability in the workplace.

He explained that the specific measures include robust Internal Controls, regular Risk Assessments, and strict adherence to regulatory guidelines, and comprehensive training programs for employees.

Hassan described the inauguration as a significant step in the Corporation’s ongoing commitment in the fight against corruption and enhances transparency.

He emphasised that NDIC Management remains committed to supporting ACTU activities, recognizing the unit’s critical role in ensuring the Corporation’s operations are conducted with integrity, free from corruption, and fostering public trust.

Dr. Musa Adamu Aliyu, chairman, ICPC, who was represented by Mr. Olusegun Adigun, acting director System Study and Review, ICPC, praised NDIC management for their dedication and active support in establishing and advancing the activities of the ACTU to address corruption issues and foster ethical practices.

He applauded the efficiency and diligence of the NDIC ACTU in fulfilling its mandate, resulting in the Corporation retaining the first position for two consecutive years on the annual ICPC Ethics and Integrity Compliance Scorecard.

He urged the new ACTU members to see their nomination as an opportunity to build on the good legacies of the previous members and to complement Management’s efforts in promoting the core values of the Corporation through their assigned duties.

 

 


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