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Looking Beyond Oil Price Collapse Towards Post Recovery Savings (Part 1)

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By Austin Okere

The recurrent mistake we keep making as a Nation is failing to anticipate and plan for our oil windfalls.

There have been many boom opportunities since Nigeria joined the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in 1971; Oil prices increased by 400% in six short months after the Yom Kippur War following the Arab Oil Embargo. Crude prices doubled from $14 in 1978 to $35 per barrel in 1981 following the Iran/Iraq war.

The price of crude oil spiked in 1990 with the uncertainties associated the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait and the ensuring Gulf War – the so called ‘Gulf War windfall’ under then Head of State Ibrahim Babangida. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration shows that the latest windfall happened between February 2011 and August 2014, under the Goodluck Jonathan presidency, when oil prices were much in excess of $100 per barrel.

Another golden opportunity was squandered, characterised by organised kleptocracy of epic proportions as has now come to light.

During this same period Saudi Arabia has amassed a whopping $593b in foreign exchange reserves and has recently announced that it is creating a $2 trillion mega-sovereign wealth fund, funded by sales of current petroleum industry assets, to prepare itself for an age when oil no longer dominates the global economy.

Coming closer home, Algeria, the second biggest African oil producer, with 1.9mbpd has accumulated foreign reserves of $156b and a sovereign wealth fund of $50b.

Nigeria, by far the biggest producer in Africa with 2.5mbpd has only managed foreign reserves of $28b and a sovereign wealth fund of a paltry $2.9b – about 5% that of Algeria.

The major difference between them is that while the Algerians saved for a rainy day during the boom years, Nigeria was busy squandering her wealth, with nothing to show by way of infrastructure or any solid investments.

Yet Nigeria was able to balance her budget, pay off her debts and save over $62b in foreign reserves during the Obasanjo presidency from 1999 to 2007, even though the price of crude was mostly under $40 per barrel, except for the two years between 2005 and 2007 when it hovered between $50 and $75 dollars per barrel.

It is bothersome that with the same level of oil price, Nigeria today is struggling to balance her budget and has resorted to aggressive borrowing to finance the deficit, inadvertently driving us back to where we were before escaping from the huge burden of sovereign debt and the attendant debilitating impact of debt servicing.

I believe that Nigeria can save as much as $36.5b in the coming year if oil prices recover towards the end of 2016 and through 2017 to the projected $80 per barrel.

This assumes we have all agreed that the current crisis is much too painful and too precious to waste.

It can actually be a blessing in disguise, affording us the much needed leverage to deliberately diversify our economy away from the over dependence on oil, and attempt to become self-sufficient in every low hanging opportunity such as feeding ourselves.

There is a reason why the Chinese use the same word for challenge and opportunity; behind every challenge is an opportunity.

We must seize this golden opportunity with both hands and make the structural changes that will lead us to true prosperity as a nation.

Almost every third Nigerian businessman you come across claims to be into Oil and Gas; usually, briefcase contractors who manage to have their ‘papers’ stamped, and proceed to collect money from the treasury of our commonwealth. Yet oil contributed only 6.4% to GDP growth in 2015.

An often overlooked area for rapid economic growth is telecoms, entertainment and media.

At a recent event in Lagos, Dr. Doyin Salami, lecturer at Lagos Business School, remarked that ‘The telecommunication sector grew Nigeria’s GDP by 8.7% in 2015, generating spill overs, with uptakes in financial transactions technology and payment systems, e-commerce facilitation and proliferation of transport services, while making the offering of the burgeoning entertainment industry ubiquitous’.

Quite simply, if each of the 34 million MSME’s in Nigeria could be supported with technology to improve their businesses through online presence and seamless bookkeeping to the point of employing one more staff, they would create an additional 34 million jobs, much more than the government can ever provide.

I totally agree with Dr. Salami that Nigeria’s economy has systematically and strategically diversified along the lines of technology and other services sector without Nigerians noticing.

The services sector today contributes as much as 52% of Nigeria’s GDP.

Agriculture is also another sector that could do with special attention. If we strive to produce what we eat, we will not only be saving a whopping $6b from our import bill, but also provide the opportunity for inclusive growth, with the spill over effects down the value chain, from logistics and transportation to light manufacturing.

But we need to make the right investments in infrastructure such as roads and rail transport linking farms with their food processors and markets.

The change that will make all this happen is not the ‘outsourced variety’ where we believe that we can carry on with business as usual, or sit back and fold our arms while only the President delivers the promised change. All hands must be on deck, and we each have to be the change we desire.

 

Austin Okere is the Founder CWG Plc and Entrepreneur in Residence, Columbia Business School, New York. He also serves on the World Economic Forum Business Council on Innovation and Intrapreneurship.


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NELFUND Says UTME, NIN, BVN Mandatory for Student Loans

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Nigerian Education Loan Fund (NELFUND) has said that Nigerian students will need to present their Unified Tertiary Matriculation Examination registration number (UTME); National Identification Number (NIN); and Bank Verification Number (BVN) to access student loans.

NELFUND Says UTME, NIN, BVN Mandatory for Student Loans

Mr Akintunde Sawyerr, managing director of NELFUND, assured that the body would ensure that those he called ‘ghost students’ would not have access to the soon-to-be-launched scheme.

The MD noted that NELFUND has put processes in place to ensure that all applicants and beneficiaries are traceable to prevent the loan from turning into a sort of national cake.

“We are using technology to run the system. The process of application is online and we are limiting human contact as much as possible. Once you have a Bank Verification Number, BVN and National Identification Number, NIN, which are parts of the requirements, we will have access to your data and all your accounts. This will also help us to know if you are qualified or not,” he explained.

He explained further that those who are already in school can apply for the loan at any level of their study, but must be at the beginning of each session. They would also have to provide their admission and matriculation details in addition to BVN and NIN.

According to the NELFUND boss, about 1.2 million Nigerian students in tertiary institutions and government-recognized skill acquisition centres would be among the first batch of beneficiaries. The number may increase as time goes on.

The programme, he noted, will be funded with one per cent of the total annual collectable revenue by the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS), which will amount to N194 billion if the agency meets its projection.

He explained that the loan would be paid in two segments. The first, he said, is the chargeable school fees which would be paid directly to the institutions while stipend would be paid into individual student’s account for day-to-day upkeep.

Mr. Sawyerr stated that the amount individual applicants will access will vary because of the course of study, school fees payable and geographical location of the institutions among others.

On the method of payback, he said, “You don’t start paying back the loan until two years after your National Youth Service Corps, NYSC Scheme and that is, if you have secured a job or business. A beneficiary can defer repayment if he has not secured a job, but if after due diligence, he defaulted, then he becomes a criminal and we will work with every agency that can help us get the money back, for example, EFCC, ICPC etc.”

 


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Sun International Finalizes $14.4M Exit from Nigeria, Sells Interests to RFC

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Sun International Limited, run by Anthony Leeming, South African entrepreneur, has agreed to sell its Nigerian interests to Rutam Finance Company Limited (RFC) for roughly $14.4 million.

Sun International Finalizes $14.4M Exit from Nigeria, Sells Interests to RFC

The move is part of Sun International’s strategy to consolidate operations and focus on key markets. Sun International joined the Nigerian market in 2009, but has struggled in recent years due to a challenging operating climate.

This divestiture is consistent with the company’s strategic objectives and represents a shift in portfolio management.

Sun International, will sell a 43.3 percent ownership investment in Tourist Company of Nigeria PLC (TCN), which manages Lagos’ Federal Palace Hotel, to RFC for $1.875 million.

In addition, the group would pay off its whole $12.675 million credit to RFC, effectively exiting the Nigerian market. The corporation also intends to sell its remaining 6% ownership in TCN in due course.

The transaction, subject to customary closing conditions including as regulatory approvals, is estimated to create a cash inflow of about $14.41 million for Sun International.

These funds will be utilized to reduce debt.

Following the completion of the acquisition, TCN will no longer be included in Sun International’s financial statements.

This will reduce group debt by about $41.82 million, excluding IFRS 16 lease liabilities.

The closing is scheduled for no later than May 28, 2024, provided that all usual closing conditions are met. The Nigerian Competition Authority, the Securities and Exchange Commission, and the Nigerian Stock Exchange have all provided key clearances.

Sun International, founded in 1968 by the late Sol Kerzner, has grown into a renowned gaming and resort company under Leeming’s leadership.

In fiscal 2023, the company’s revenue increased by 7% to $646.14 million, while headline earnings increased by 86 percent to $55.35 million.

This demonstrates Sun International’s resiliency and strategic direction. Sun International’s pullout from Nigeria demonstrates the company’s dedication to streamlining its portfolio and pursuing growth possibilities in key areas.

With a rich history and a focus on the future, this transaction demonstrates the company’s commitment to create wealth for shareholders and stakeholders while also strengthening its position in the gaming and hospitality industries.

 

 


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Sam Darwish, US-Nigerian Businessman Suffers $6m Loss as IHS Shares Plunge

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Sam Darwish, a US-Nigerian telecom entrepreneur, has experienced a huge financial setback in his holding in IHS Holdings following a recent drop in the shares of the top telecom infrastructure company on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).

Sam Darwish, US-Nigerian Businessman Suffers $6m Loss as IHS Shares Plunge

Sam Darwish

According to data, Sam Darwish’s investment in IHS Holdings has lost $6 million in market value during the last 13 days. This drop reflects increasing selling pressure among NYSE investors.

From March 12 to 30, Darwish’s investment in IHS Holdings increased from $35.17 million to $49.27 million, resulting in a $14 million gain.

Darwish founded IHS Holdings in 2001, and it has since grown to become the largest telecom infrastructure business in Africa, Europe, Latin America, and the Middle East.

It is renowned for its huge tower count and is the world’s third-largest independent international tower firm.

In the last 13 days, IHS Holdings shares on the NYSE have dropped by 11.72 percent, from $3.67 on April 3 to $3.24 at the time of writing.

As a result, the company’s market capitalization has dropped below $1.1 billion, causing significant losses for stockholders.

As chairman and CEO of IHS Holdings, Sam Darwish holds a critical position in African telecom.

With a strong 4.17 percent ownership holding, equivalent to 13,958,158 ordinary shares, he is a key participant in the global telecom infrastructure business.

The recent double-digit loss in IHS Holdings shares has resulted in a $6 million decrease in the market value of Darwish’s shareholding in the top telecom infrastructure company. His shareholding has decreased from $51.23 million on April 3 to $45.22 million.

Despite this defeat, Darwish remains an important figure in the worldwide telecom business.

IHS Holdings’ extensive tower network and smart acquisitions have secured its position as a major participant in the global telecom infrastructure sector.

 


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