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Looking Beyond Oil Price Collapse Towards Post Recovery Savings (Part 2)

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By Austin Okere

I will attempt to share the justification for this projection from the insights expressed by experts at various fora, and my own informed postulations.

Depending on which expert you talk to, and the perceived direction of the Chinese economy, you get three different views; a school of thought holds that the price of oil may be far from the top but closer to the bottom, while others believe that oil price will bottom out at about $20 per barrel. Yet another group holds that Oil price has reached equilibrium and will oscillate between $40 and $45 per barrel.

The optimists believe that oil price will recover to between $70 and $80 per barrel towards the end of the year, and remain within that band, as a sustainable balance between demand and supply is reached.

According to the 2015 OPEC annual statistics bulletin, world crude production in 2014 was 73.4 million barrels per day (mbpd) while demand was 91.3mbpd.

With the significant scale back in shale production arising from the steep price drop from late 2014 to levels that make shale production unviable, it will be safe to assume that production has dropped considerably while demand has more or less remained steady.

The major issue for me is the question of the so called glut. If there is indeed a glut, what is the accurate size of the glut and therefore, how long will it take for supply and demand to balance out.

I listened to an expert at a recent forum argue very eloquently against the widely touted 850 million barrel excess crude inventory.

Based on the data he and his firm have meticulously collected, he believes that the excess supply cannot be more than a quarter of the touted figure.

This means that the glut is overstated by 600 million barrels. Meanwhile, Iran’s return to the market has been less dramatic than the Iranians said it will be, adding only 220,000 barrels per day (bpd) in February 2016 according to the International Energy Agency (IEA); only a fifth of their forecast of 1mbpd.

The IEA also believes that non-OPEC output will fall by 750,000 bpd in 2016, while US production alone will decline by 530,000 bpd this year.

The other possible disrupter to oil is the incentive to explore alternative forms of energy such as renewables, majorly solar and wind, in response to the impending carbon tax fuelled by fears of global warming and pollution.

According to Amy Jaffe and Jeroen van der Veer, leading experts on global energy policy, factors such as technological advancements, the falling price of batteries that power electric vehicles, and a post-COP21 (UN Climate change conference in Paris in 2015) push for cleaner energy could drive oil use below 80 million barrels a day by 2040.

These threats to oil do not seem practical on a meaningful scale in the near to medium term.

The example in Germany seems to buttress the fact that renewables may not make sense in Europe and other cold climes, and that they can only be achieved with very steep and unsustainable subsidies.

It is reported that Germany, the poster boy for renewables has so far invested about $500b on wind and solar energy. And yet renewables account for only 3.5% of global energy use, while oil and gas accounts for as much as 60% (this excludes shale, peat and coal, which account for 10%).

Electricity accounts for 18%, while biofuels and waste account for the balance 12%. In simple terms, the eight major oil companies, with a cumulative valuation of $1.4trillion generate as much as 20 million barrels per day versus the $2trillion invested so far to generate the equivalent of 7million barrels of oil per day in renewable energy. How sustainable is this huge subsidy?

For the switch to electric cars to happen, we would need to replace refineries producing petrol with power plants that will produce the additional electricity required to charge the electric cars. How quickly can this switch happen, even if it were practical?

My theory on the oil narrative is as follows: Saudi Arabia being the biggest reserve holder wanted to drive the shale producers, whom they saw as ‘squatters’ out of the market.

They opened their taps to drive prices down, knowing that shale needed an oil price of above $40 to produce at break even.

The high oil prices were driving cheap capital into shale and improving technology and yielding high returns and thus attracting more capital and repeating the cycle, thereby iteratively making shale a bigger threat.

I believe that the Saudi plan was hijacked by the Oil traders, who thrive on price arbitrage fuelled by uncertainty.

They rode on the back of increased Saudi production to shout ‘oil glut’! They increased the FUD (fear uncertainty and doubt) with news of huge inventories coming on stream following the lifting of sanctions against Iran, but the general view is that Iran’s oil was already finding its way into the market through the back door, resulting in an insignificant net increase in supply.

It then became a self-fulfilling prophesy which snowballed, with the producers pumping recklessly to maintain market share and preserve earnings, which drove prices further down, exacerbating a bad situation.

I believe that the oil traders and bankers are trying to make up for a lost bet on the back of overenthusiastic exposure to the oil market. This is captured by the screaming headline in the Financial Times of March 22, 2016 ‘$150b losses on energy company bonds spur default fears’.

 The article further states that the total debt among oil and gas companies including loans almost tripled from $1.1trillion in 2006 to $3 trillion in 2014 quoting the Bank for International Settlements.

Twenty of Europe’s biggest banks have energy loans totalling $200b, enough to wipe out a quarter of their common equity, while twenty of the leading US banks have loans totalling $115b or 11% of their equity.

With the desperation arising from a risky bet gone awry, one does not need to dig too deep to glean a motivation to drive prices down, buy on the cheap and subsequently sell on the high to cover the huge debts.

I believe that in the end, the market will wave its magic wand, and supply and demand will correct themselves and reach equilibrium with price. You cannot hide a pregnancy for too long.

It is not at all surprising that the heads of the world’s largest oil trading houses, six of which sell enough oil to meet almost a fifth of global demand were unanimous in calling for an end to the two year price slump at a Financial Times conference in Lausanne.

What should be more important to all of us, beyond these theories is whether Nigeria will finally learn from her past mistakes and institute a mechanism for saving when oil prices rebound, as I believe they eventually will. And what if the optimists are wrong, and prices do not rise. We would have lost nothing.

We would have learnt to diversify away enough from oil to live comfortably within the current price. If on the other hand the optimists are right, then we will save the equivalent of $36.5b per year (i.e. 2.5mbpd X extra $40per barrel X 365 days).

In any case we would have nothing to lose by preparing and having to wait a while longer than anticipated. Success only happens when opportunity meets preparation.

 

Austin Okere is the Founder CWG Plc and Entrepreneur in Residence, Columbia Business School, New York. He also serves on the World Economic Forum Business Council on Innovation and Intrapreneurship.


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CSCS Inaugurates Custodian Portal to Enhance Digital Access, Operational Efficiency

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Central Securities Clearing System Plc (CSCS), Nigeria’s capital market infrastructure provider, has launched its Custodian Portal, a user-centric digital solution designed to optimise custodian operations through intuitive, secure and efficient features.

Haruna Jalo-Waziri, Chief Executive Officer (CEO), CSCS, announced this in a statement on Monday.

The CSCS is a Public Limited Company with a diversified shareholder base, which serves as the Central Securities Depository for the Nigerian Capital Market.

It serves as the Central Depository for Equities, Commercial Papers, Corporate Bonds, Sub-National Bonds, certain Sovereign Bonds like the FGN Sukuk and the FGN Savings Bond, Equity-traded Funds, Real Estate Investment Trusts, Mutual funds and Commodities.

Jalo-Waziri said that the custodian portal offered a streamlined experience for market participants with powerful tools that facilitate comprehensive portfolio and trade management, document tracking, share transfer operations, client symbol search, and real-time access to vital data.

He explained that the portal, designed to operate through a flexible subscription-based model, empowered users to manage their records effortlessly and securely through convenient payment channels such as GTPay and Paystack.

According to him, “Digital transformation remains at the core of our strategy to enhance the efficiency, transparency and accessibility of Nigeria’s capital market services.

“The custodian portal is a significant leap in that direction, offering custodians a centralised platform to manage critical processes in real-time.

“We are excited about the value this innovation brings to our stakeholders, and we will continue to evolve the platform in line with users’ needs and industry trends.”

The CEO also explained that the portal was designed with user experience in mind with feature tools like portfolio viewing and downloads in PDF or Excel format.

He further said that it also featured tracking of stock movements across date ranges, inbox messaging and request tracking, as well as robust user management capabilities including role assignment and status tracking.

Similarly, the Divisional Head, Business Technology and Digital Innovation, CSCS Plc, Tobe Nnadozie, said that the portal aligned with CSCS’s drive to automate the market.

“In addition to the normal features, the platform is a part of an omnichannel platform for custodians, and includes API services.

“It also connects to the market-wide workflow, which CSCS has built to ensure secured communication and approvals across all major stakeholders in the market.

“The platform is well secured with best-of-breed cybersecurity solutions and our SOC,” he said.

The Custodian Portal reinforces CSCS’s commitment to leveraging technology to streamline back-office functions and support a more agile, data-driven capital market ecosystem.

All custodians in the Nigerian capital market have now been successfully on-boarded on the Custodian Portal, marking a significant milestone in CSCS’s ongoing drive to enhance collaboration, standardise operational processes, and promote digital adoption across the market.


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UN Appoints Sa’id, Nigerian to Nuclear Panel

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In a historic announcement, António Guterres, United Nations secretary-general  has named Professor Rabia Sa’id, a Nigerian physicist, to a newly established global independent scientific panel tasked with assessing the devastating consequences of nuclear war.

UN Appoints Sa’id, Nigerian to Nuclear Panel

Professor Rabia Sa’id,

This appointment positions Nigeria at the forefront of a critical international initiative focused on the future of global peace, health, and security.

The independent panel, comprising 21 world-renowned experts, was constituted following the adoption of General Assembly Resolution 79/238, titled “Nuclear War Effects and Scientific Research.”

The body will deliver the most comprehensive scientific analysis in decades on the potential physical and societal impacts of nuclear war at local, regional, and global levels, including climatic disruptions, environmental contamination, radiological effects, and socioeconomic fallout.

Professor Sa’id, a distinguished researcher in atmospheric and space-weather physics at Bayero University Kano and co-founder of Nigeria’s Association of Women Physicists, will bring unique African and Nigerian perspectives to the critical study.

Her expertise in atmospheric sciences is expected to play a pivotal role in the panel’s examination of post-nuclear climatic and environmental changes.

This marks a significant milestone for Nigeria, highlighting the country’s growing influence in global scientific diplomacy and peacebuilding initiatives.

Professor Sa’id joins a select group of experts from 21 countries spanning fields such as nuclear science, radiation studies, climate and environmental sciences, public health, agriculture, and economics.

The panel has been mandated to produce a comprehensive scientific report by 2027, to be presented at the United Nations General Assembly’s 82nd session.

Their findings will provide crucial guidance to the international community on the long-term risks posed by nuclear conflict, revisiting the issue almost four decades after the UN’s last major scientific report on the subject in 1988.

In keeping with the resolution, the panel was carefully constituted to ensure global geographical representation and gender balance. Professor Sa’id’s inclusion is a testament to Nigeria’s scientific excellence and commitment to global peace.

The Secretary-General underscored that the panel will consult widely with international organisations, civil society groups, and communities worldwide, ensuring local and regional concerns are adequately represented in the final report.

Nigeria’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has welcomed the appointment, noting it as “an important recognition of Nigeria’s voice in shaping a safer, more secure world.”

Professor Sa’id herself expressed pride in representing her country, stating, “Africa must have a seat at the table when global security and human survival are discussed.”

Other prominent panel members include scientists from Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, the United Kingdom, South Korea, Kazakhstan, Austria, Australia, South Africa, Japan, Turkey, China, and others, reflecting a broad spectrum of expertise and perspectives.

As global tensions and nuclear risks resurface on the international agenda, Nigeria’s participation in this critical scientific endeavour underscores its continued advocacy for disarmament and a nuclear-free future.


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GEFAS Launches Tech-Driven Hub to Mobilize Youth for Soludo’s Re-election

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Geeks and Founders Alliance for Soludo (GEFAS) on Thursday 17th July, 2025 unveiled its new office space in a significant event that further strengthens the group’s mission to drive Governor Soludo’s “everything technology, technology everywhere” vision across Anambra State.

The unveiling was performed by the Secretary to the State Government, Prof. Solo Chukwulobelu, who could not contain his excitement and amazement at the level of sophistication of the facility and the vibrancy of the young professionals and tech enthusiasts behind the initiative.

Prof. Chukwulobelu commended the GEFAS team for building such a dynamic platform, uniting diverse sectors under a common goal to support Anambra’s digital transformation and Governor Soludo’s re-election bid at the November 8 Governorship Poll, without requesting a dime from the government.

He noted that their efforts reflect growing youth support for his administration.

“Our goal is to secure victory in the upcoming election and continue delivering good governance to the people of Anambra. Anambra is APGA, and APGA is Anambra

There is no vacancy in Government House come November 2025,” he added.

He urged GEFAS members to remain steadfast and resilient in the face of opposition, adding that the government would collaborate with and complement GEFAS to ensure its vision is further integrated into governance for greater impact.

Also present to lend credence to the movement was the Special Adviser to the Governor on Political Matters, Dr. Alex Obiogbolu, who described GEFAS as a strategic and dynamic angle to the campaigns.

He lauded the initiative, stating that it exemplifies the power of digital tools in modern political campaigning and governance, and expressed optimism that a second term for Governor Soludo would unlock even more innovative solutions for Ndi Anambra.

In her remarks, Ms. Odili Jombo, a coordinator with GEFAS, shared the impressive results of the Alliance’s outreach so far.

She revealed that the GEFAS Call Centre, with its team of 21 dedicated agents, has already reached over 20,000 Ndi Anambra, gathering valuable insights on citizens’ sentiments about Mr. Governor’s performance and their disposition towards the upcoming elections, an experience she described, has recorded more positives than negatives.

She further announced that GEFAS will soon unveil a mobile WiFi bus, among other top-tier initiatives designed to change the campaign landscape and further position Anambra as a leading tech state.

The event was well attended by top government officials, members of the media, tech stakeholders, and other well-meaning Ndi Anambra, many of whom expressed amazement at what GEFAS has created and pledged unwavering support for them and Governor Soludo’s continuity at the November polls.

Explaining the passion behind GEFAS, the Convener and MD/CEO of the Anambra State ICT Agency, Chukwuemeka Fred Agbata, CFA, described the Alliance as a continuity-driven force working to align with Governor Soludo’s vision of moving Anambra from a departure lounge to a destination lounge.

“We believe that together, leveraging technology, we can drive the real change Anambra truly deserves,” he said.

With this milestone, GEFAS remains committed to driving technology-driven engagement that delivers practical impact and amplifies the Solution Government’s transformational strides.


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