E-Financial
Naira Weakens after Election Postponement
By Lukman Otunuga, FXTM Research Analyst,
The Naira weakened against the Dollar on the forward market today, following the sudden postponement of the Presidential and National Assembly elections over the weekend. With the nation speculated to lose roughly $1 billion in GDP for postponing as result of this, the near-term economic outlook has gone sour. However, it may be too early to jump to any conclusions over what impact this could have on sentiment and macro-economic conditions. The uncertainty from this development will certainly impact Nigerian stocks in the near term, with the All Share Index (ASI) already -1.61% lower as of writing.
The week ahead: Trade talks, FOMC minutes and Brexit in focus
It has been a relatively quiet start to another busy trading week, with stocks in Asia concluding higher and European shares remaining steady amid gradual improved optimism over potential progress in US-China trade negotiations. Although Wall Street is closed today due to Washington’s birthday, global stock markets will be hoping for more inspiration to push higher after President Trump tweeted that US-China talks have been “very productive”.
I do think that while reports of China and the US achieving a consensus in principle on major topics is a welcome development for financial markets, it remains too early for any celebrations. The clock is ticking fast on the end of the 90-day truce set late last year, and it remains wishful thinking to carry optimism that there will be a major breakthrough with a trade deal. The more likely scenario at this point is that both sides could agree to another extension on the previous truce, or that there is an extension to the March deadline for new China tariffs. A market-friendly outcome to these long-standing tensions is still very much needed to boost appetite for riskier assets.
Across the Atlantic, all eyes will be on the FOMC minutes released mid-week that should offer further insight into how ‘patient’ and ‘flexible’ the Fed is on future rate hikes. If the minutes signal that US interest rates will be not increased at all in 2019, the Dollar is at risk of being dethroned as the king of the currency markets. The impact of last week’s disappointing retail sales report continues to be reflected in the Greenback’s bearish price action today, with the Dollar Index trading marginally below 96.70 as of writing. We see the Dollar weakness becoming a major theme in the near term, as political risk in the United States, disappointing domestic data and speculation of a pause in US monetary tightening decrease the Dollar’s competitive advantage against its major peers.
Investors should fasten their seat belts and prepare for a rocky ride on the British Pound, as Theresa May heads back to Brussels this week for more Brexit talks. With the European Union repeatedly stating that the Withdrawal Agreement is not open for renegotiations, May risks flying back home empty-handed. It is interesting how the Pound offered a muted reaction today despite several Labour MP’s resigning over the Brexit drama. Traders are becoming increasingly unconcerned with the endless political drama in the Commons, with some complacency over Brexit possibly seeping in. The Pound seems to be supported by expectations over the government extending Article 50 in an effort to prevent a no-deal Brexit.
Looking at the technical picture, the GBPUSD is pushing higher on the daily charts with prices finding comfort above the 1.2900 level. A solid daily close above this point should provide bulls with enough fuel to journey towards 1.3000.
E-Financial
IMF Urges CBN to License Cryptocurrency Dealers
International Monetary Fund (IMF) has explained why the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) should issue operating licences or register cryptocurrency dealers.
In its 2024 Staff Report released at the weekend, the IMF recommended that global crypto trading platforms be registered or licensed in Nigeria, like similar operators, the Bureaux De Change (BDCs), which are licensed by the CBN to carry out forex transactions at the retail end of the market.
The IMF advised that such crypto trading platforms should be subjected to the same regulatory requirements applicable to financial intermediaries, following the principle of same activity, same risk, and same regulation.
The CBN had announced that cryptocurrency traders used peer-to-peer trading to manipulate the naira exchange rate against the dollar and other global currencies.
The apex bank asserted in February that Binance, the largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume, had processed $26 billion in untraceable transactions in its Nigeria unit alone.
To protect the naira from value erosion and reverse the negative impact in the financial system, the CBN subsequently stopped banks and other financial institutions from banking cryptocurrency traders.
Aside several other factors causing naira’s slide, like rising import bills, medical tourism, and tuition fees payment abroad, exchange rate manipulation by cryptocurrency traders remains a major contributory factor.
IMF said: “Rapid growth of transactions on FX trading platforms poses new challenges. At the end of February, the authorities closed the operations of Binance and other crypto-asset trading platforms that were being used by Nigerians to facilitate capital flight – neither the identity of traders nor the origin of their funds could be traced.”
“The authorities also revoked the licences of 4,173 Bureaux De Change (BDCs) that failed to comply with CBN accounting and reporting requirements. Staff recommends that global crypto trading platforms be registered or licensed in Nigeria and subjected to the same regulatory requirements applicable to financial intermediaries following the principle of same activity, same risk, and same regulation.”
E-Financial
NoOnes Super App Surpasses 200,000 Downloads
NoOnes, the financial communication super app has announced it has broken past 200,000 downloads despite launching just over a year ago in April 2023.
With the new figures representing a 300% surge in daily downloads since January 2024, the platform has also secured a 400% rise in user signups over the last three months, accelerating NoOnes’ global drive for financial empowerment by connecting people worldwide to conversations and payments.
In recent months, the platform’s meteoric rise has been primarily driven by strong growth in Kenya, Cameroon and South Africa, which have heavily benefited from NoOnes’ comprehensive suite of features.
Including over 250 payment methods, global chat functionalities for seamless cross-border communication and a secure BTC wallet, the app is rapidly emerging as the go-to platform to serve the needs of underbanked populations, spearheading economic equality through Bitcoin adoption.
Speaking about the new milestone, Ray Youssef, CEO of NoOnes, said “This announcement isn’t just about the huge momentum we’ve rapidly built as a new player in the crypto space, it’s a testament to the massive appetite for financial empowerment in Africa and the wider Global South. Just a year ago, we launched NoOnes with a clear mission – to lead the charge on dismantling financial apartheid once and for all and our new figures not only recognise the immense dedication of our team to this goal over the last few months, but are also a serious indicator of things to come.”
Available on Google Play and iOS, NoOnes was launched to empower the financial freedom of the Global South through Bitcoin.
The platform enables users to move money freely and faster, without the friction and challenges associated with legacy banking and financial institutions.
Its business ideology hinges on the belief that peer-to-peer is the world’s only true free market and that Bitcoin is the new global financial architecture poised to uplift the people of Africa, Latin America and South East Asia.
NoOnes’ biggest markets to date are Nigeria, Ghana, Cameroon, India and the Philippines, accruing over 400,000 users worldwide to date, and achieving profitability within just under 4 months of operations.
Despite its recent regulatory challenges, Africa’s cryptocurrency sector has continued its strong upward trajectory with Kenya, Cameroon, and South Africa emerging alongside Nigeria as the continent’s most prominent players.
According to Google Trends data, Kenya recently ranked among the top-15 crypto-curious countries globally and Cameroon currently boasts an active crypto user base of just under one million, accounting for nearly 7% of its active population.
With South Africa’s financial conduct regulator approving licences for crypto firms in April 2024, it is one of Africa’s most progressive countries for the industry, ranking amongst the highest countries in the world for crypto adoption globally.
E-Financial
FG to Receive $2.25Bn Fresh Loan From World Bank on June 13
Federal government will receive fresh loan funding from the World Bank, with approval expected for loans totalling $2.25billion on June 13, 2024.
Recall that Wale Edun, minister of Finance, at the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank last month, had announced that the nation had qualified for processing a loan, described as ‘virtually a grant’ of $2.25bn from the World Bank at one per cent interest rate.
He stated, “We have qualified for the processing just this week to the Board of Directors of the World Bank of a total package of $2.25bn of what you can call ‘the closest you can get to a free lunch’- virtually a grant. It’s for about 10- 20 years moratorium and about one per cent interest.”
The package, approved by the World Bank Board of Directors, offers a 40-year term with a 10-year moratorium and a nominal one-percent interest rate.
According to the latest information on the World Bank website, the funding will be received via two major development projects.
The first project is the Nigeria Reforms for Economic Stabilization to Enable Transformation Development Policy Financing, which is set to receive $1.5bn.
The second project, NG Accelerating Resource Mobilization Reforms Programme-for-Results, has proposed funding of $750m.
It was also indicated that the government might reintroduce the excises on telecom services and the EMT levy on electronic money transfers through the Nigerian Banking System, among other taxes.
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