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Investors Scramble for Nigeria’s Bonds Despite Recession

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Investors are lining up to buy dollar bonds Nigeria is expected to issue soon despite the country’s first recession in a quarter of a century, a currency crisis and budget shortfalls driven by low oil prices.

On the face of it, the $1 billion ($A1.3 billion) of bonds Nigeria hopes to sell by the end of March might seem unattractive, especially at a time sentiment towards African debt has soured after Mozambique missed a coupon payment.

But investors hungry for higher returns in a low interest rate environment reckon Nigeria’s benign debt levels, recovering foreign exchange reserves and a potential yield above seven per cent are reasons enough to look beyond the country’s economic woes.

“Nigeria’s starting position is one of low debt so if they price it attractively they will be able to get it done,” said Claudia Calich, who manages an emerging market bond fund at M&G Investments.

Nigeria’s Eurobond has been a long time coming. A year ago, Nigeria appeared to have shelved the idea in favour of a loan from China, but it embarked on an investor roadshow for the bond late last year in the United States and Britain.

Nigeria is Africa’s biggest economy, a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and vies with Angola for the position of top oil producer, but that also means it is very exposed to fluctuations in the oil market.

The last time Nigeria issued dollar-denominated bonds in July 2013, oil was comfortably above $US100 a barrel but the slump in prices from $US115 in June 2014 to just $US28 a barrel by January 2016 has hurt the West African country’s economy.

Crude oil sales account for two-thirds of government revenue and about 90 per cent of foreign exchange earnings so the price slide, coupled with a resurgence in militant attacks on oil facilities in the Niger Delta, have had a severe impact.

According to the World Bank, Nigeria’s economy probably shrank 1.7 per cent in 2016, underperforming an average growth rate of 1.5 per cent across sub-Saharan Africa and way behind high-flying economies such as Ivory Coast.

Foreign investment has almost ground to a halt, hobbled by a slide in the naira currency – which trades on the black market at about 40 per cent below the official rate of 300 per dollar – and expectations the currency may have to be devalued again.

World Bank data shows net foreign direct investment tumbled to just over $US3 billion in 2015 from nearly $US9 billion in 2011 and the government needs to borrow $US3.5 billion internationally this year to balance a record 2017 budget.

International lenders such as the World Bank and African Development Bank (AfDB) are also holding back on loans until Nigeria comes up with a plan to make its economy more resilient.

Yet, bond investors seem undeterred.

They argue that a Eurobond issued in dollars will shield them from currency risk and, compared to its African peers, Nigeria has a low ratio of public debt to annual economic output, implying that default is not a worry.

The ratio of Nigeria’s total public debt to gross domestic product is 22 per cent compared with 46 per cent in Gabon, 62 per cent in Ghana or 73 per cent in Angola, according to estimates by Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

While businesses in Nigeria are having trouble getting hold of dollars, the country’s foreign exchange reserves are on the rise again. They hit an eight-month high of $US26.6 billion at the start of 2017 and have since climbed to $US28.9 billion.

“The government has access to hard currency even if they are restricting the access of other agents in the economy,” said Kieran Curtis, investment director at Standard Life Investments, who also plans to look at Nigeria’s upcoming bond issue.

Curtis reckons that Nigeria’s low debt ratios will allow it to borrow more cheaply than Ghana. Nigeria’s existing 2023 dollar bond yields about 6.7 per cent, or 170 basis points lower than Ghana’s 2023 bond.

Egypt, which has a credit rating of B-minus/B3/B from the main agencies, was marketing $US4 billion of Eurobonds in three tranches on Tuesday, offering a 10-year bond at 7.5 per cent. Nigeria is rated one to two notches higher at B/B1/B plus.

Nigeria’s last 10-year bond sold in July 2013 had a 6.375 per cent coupon but Exotix Partners head of fixed income research Stuart Culverhouse said a new issue would have to offer a yield of 7.0 per cent to 7.5 per cent.

“(Nigeria) might have to accept that people are charging more for them because of the situation. It could be a reality check,” he said.

If the country were to press ahead with reforms to alleviate pressure on the naira before issuing a bond, it could help lower the cost of borrowing, M&G’s Calich said.

“Then they could bring a new deal at tighter spreads. The big question is the currency regime.”

Although oil prices are now expected to stabilise above $US50 following OPEC’s decision to curb output, there are a few more clouds on the horizon.

The budget deficit for 2017 risks ballooning further as the government tries to boost the economy with record spending on roads and power.

Many also see the budget’s oil output projection of 2.2 million barrels per day as optimistic. Oil production, curbed by persistent attacks in the Niger Delta, was just 1.63 million barrels a day in the third quarter and was still below 1.8 million barrels per day in December.

Second, while emerging economies have been tapping the market in near-record numbers in January, sub-Saharan African borrowers have been absent and Mozambique’s coupon miss has not helped.

But Calich said there were no such fears for Nigeria.

“It will take a big shock to get into that kind of distress … we are far from that at this point.”


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NELFUND Says UTME, NIN, BVN Mandatory for Student Loans

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Nigerian Education Loan Fund (NELFUND) has said that Nigerian students will need to present their Unified Tertiary Matriculation Examination registration number (UTME); National Identification Number (NIN); and Bank Verification Number (BVN) to access student loans.

NELFUND Says UTME, NIN, BVN Mandatory for Student Loans

Mr Akintunde Sawyerr, managing director of NELFUND, assured that the body would ensure that those he called ‘ghost students’ would not have access to the soon-to-be-launched scheme.

The MD noted that NELFUND has put processes in place to ensure that all applicants and beneficiaries are traceable to prevent the loan from turning into a sort of national cake.

“We are using technology to run the system. The process of application is online and we are limiting human contact as much as possible. Once you have a Bank Verification Number, BVN and National Identification Number, NIN, which are parts of the requirements, we will have access to your data and all your accounts. This will also help us to know if you are qualified or not,” he explained.

He explained further that those who are already in school can apply for the loan at any level of their study, but must be at the beginning of each session. They would also have to provide their admission and matriculation details in addition to BVN and NIN.

According to the NELFUND boss, about 1.2 million Nigerian students in tertiary institutions and government-recognized skill acquisition centres would be among the first batch of beneficiaries. The number may increase as time goes on.

The programme, he noted, will be funded with one per cent of the total annual collectable revenue by the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS), which will amount to N194 billion if the agency meets its projection.

He explained that the loan would be paid in two segments. The first, he said, is the chargeable school fees which would be paid directly to the institutions while stipend would be paid into individual student’s account for day-to-day upkeep.

Mr. Sawyerr stated that the amount individual applicants will access will vary because of the course of study, school fees payable and geographical location of the institutions among others.

On the method of payback, he said, “You don’t start paying back the loan until two years after your National Youth Service Corps, NYSC Scheme and that is, if you have secured a job or business. A beneficiary can defer repayment if he has not secured a job, but if after due diligence, he defaulted, then he becomes a criminal and we will work with every agency that can help us get the money back, for example, EFCC, ICPC etc.”

 


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Sun International Finalizes $14.4M Exit from Nigeria, Sells Interests to RFC

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Sun International Limited, run by Anthony Leeming, South African entrepreneur, has agreed to sell its Nigerian interests to Rutam Finance Company Limited (RFC) for roughly $14.4 million.

Sun International Finalizes $14.4M Exit from Nigeria, Sells Interests to RFC

The move is part of Sun International’s strategy to consolidate operations and focus on key markets. Sun International joined the Nigerian market in 2009, but has struggled in recent years due to a challenging operating climate.

This divestiture is consistent with the company’s strategic objectives and represents a shift in portfolio management.

Sun International, will sell a 43.3 percent ownership investment in Tourist Company of Nigeria PLC (TCN), which manages Lagos’ Federal Palace Hotel, to RFC for $1.875 million.

In addition, the group would pay off its whole $12.675 million credit to RFC, effectively exiting the Nigerian market. The corporation also intends to sell its remaining 6% ownership in TCN in due course.

The transaction, subject to customary closing conditions including as regulatory approvals, is estimated to create a cash inflow of about $14.41 million for Sun International.

These funds will be utilized to reduce debt.

Following the completion of the acquisition, TCN will no longer be included in Sun International’s financial statements.

This will reduce group debt by about $41.82 million, excluding IFRS 16 lease liabilities.

The closing is scheduled for no later than May 28, 2024, provided that all usual closing conditions are met. The Nigerian Competition Authority, the Securities and Exchange Commission, and the Nigerian Stock Exchange have all provided key clearances.

Sun International, founded in 1968 by the late Sol Kerzner, has grown into a renowned gaming and resort company under Leeming’s leadership.

In fiscal 2023, the company’s revenue increased by 7% to $646.14 million, while headline earnings increased by 86 percent to $55.35 million.

This demonstrates Sun International’s resiliency and strategic direction. Sun International’s pullout from Nigeria demonstrates the company’s dedication to streamlining its portfolio and pursuing growth possibilities in key areas.

With a rich history and a focus on the future, this transaction demonstrates the company’s commitment to create wealth for shareholders and stakeholders while also strengthening its position in the gaming and hospitality industries.

 

 


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Sam Darwish, US-Nigerian Businessman Suffers $6m Loss as IHS Shares Plunge

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Sam Darwish, a US-Nigerian telecom entrepreneur, has experienced a huge financial setback in his holding in IHS Holdings following a recent drop in the shares of the top telecom infrastructure company on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).

Sam Darwish, US-Nigerian Businessman Suffers $6m Loss as IHS Shares Plunge

Sam Darwish

According to data, Sam Darwish’s investment in IHS Holdings has lost $6 million in market value during the last 13 days. This drop reflects increasing selling pressure among NYSE investors.

From March 12 to 30, Darwish’s investment in IHS Holdings increased from $35.17 million to $49.27 million, resulting in a $14 million gain.

Darwish founded IHS Holdings in 2001, and it has since grown to become the largest telecom infrastructure business in Africa, Europe, Latin America, and the Middle East.

It is renowned for its huge tower count and is the world’s third-largest independent international tower firm.

In the last 13 days, IHS Holdings shares on the NYSE have dropped by 11.72 percent, from $3.67 on April 3 to $3.24 at the time of writing.

As a result, the company’s market capitalization has dropped below $1.1 billion, causing significant losses for stockholders.

As chairman and CEO of IHS Holdings, Sam Darwish holds a critical position in African telecom.

With a strong 4.17 percent ownership holding, equivalent to 13,958,158 ordinary shares, he is a key participant in the global telecom infrastructure business.

The recent double-digit loss in IHS Holdings shares has resulted in a $6 million decrease in the market value of Darwish’s shareholding in the top telecom infrastructure company. His shareholding has decreased from $51.23 million on April 3 to $45.22 million.

Despite this defeat, Darwish remains an important figure in the worldwide telecom business.

IHS Holdings’ extensive tower network and smart acquisitions have secured its position as a major participant in the global telecom infrastructure sector.

 


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