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Nigeria inches closer to rate cut as outlook improves

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by Lukman Otunuga, Research Analyst at FXTM

 

July was another encouraging trading month for the Nigerian economy, thanks to the stabilizing macroeconomic environment.

 

Annual inflation eased for the seventeenth consecutive month, while positive core economic metrics pointed to further signs of improving stability. Elevated global Oil prices have boosted government reviews and heavily supported foreign exchange markets. The overall outlook for Nigeria remains positive, especially when considering how the IMF has raised its growth forecast and the World Bank has indicated its willingness to provide the nation with technical support. According to the IMF, Nigeria’s economic growth rate in 2019 is projected to hit 2.3%, an improvement from the earlier 1.9% forecast thanks to an improved outlook on global Oil prices. As we head into the second trading month of Q2, there is likely to be an increasing focus on the Central Bank of Nigeria. With inflation pressures easing and economic conditions improving, the burning question among investors is when interest rates will be cut.

 

Consumer prices in the largest economy in Africa have cooled, from 11.61% in May to 11.23% MoM in June, its slowest pace in over two years. With inflationary pressures clearly becoming a theme of the past and gravitating closer to the CBN’s 6% – 9% target, logic states that a rate cut could be around the corner. However, external and domestic risks ranging from global trade tensions, prospects of higher US interest rates and political risk at home could sabotage the central banks to cut rates. A sense of uncertainty ahead of the 2019 elections coupled with the possibility of pre-election spending stimulating demand-pull inflation could complicate matters for the CBN.

 

Escalating global trade tensions remain a significant threat to global growth and stability which is bad news for Emerging Markets. With trade tensions escalating between Nigeria’s two biggest trading partners, the nation could be caught in the firing line like many other emerging market currencies. An appreciating Dollar and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy strategy may also play an important role in when or if the CBN takes action. Market expectations remain elevated over the Federal Reserve raising US interest rates two more times this year, which may spark capital outflows from Emerging Markets. While a rate cut in Nigeria has the ability to boost economic growth by promoting spending and investment, it may widen the monetary policy divergence between the Fed and CBN.

 

What seemed like an easy decision for the CBN could turn difficult as the year progresses, especially when factoring in how the bullish sentiment towards the US economy has boosted speculation of a Fed rate hike. Will the CBN be willing to widen the US – Nigeria interest rate differential to pursue economic growth? Or will rates be left unchanged in a bid to prevent any unexpected downside shocks ahead of the general elections in 2019?

 

With Oil prices vulnerable to losses amid a possible return of oversupply concerns and Dollar strength remaining a dominant market theme, this toxic combination may present downside risks to Nigeria’s economic recovery. If second-quarter economic growth prints above market expectations and domestic inflation cools to single digits, the CBN could be given an opportunity to cut interest rates in Q4.

 

 

 


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E-Financial

Moniepoint, Community Pharmacists to Explore Digital Financial Inclusion for Health Industry

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Issues bordering on the need to strengthen the pharmaceutical supply chain and distribution leveraging digital technology, reducing the prevalence of fake medicines exacerbated by the unregulated and uncoordinated open drug market, bringing digital financial inclusion to the forefront of the health industry and achieving Universal Health Coverage, UHC for all Nigerians even in the face of its expanding population and limited human resources for health care have been brought to the fore.

L- R Regional Sales Manager, Moniepoint Inc, Emmanuel Imouokhome, National Secretary, ACPN, Pharm. Omokhafe Ashore, National Chairman, ACPN, Pharm Wale Oladigbolu and Vice President, Sales and Partnerships, Moniepoint Inc, Ifeanyi Duru, Chairman, ACPN Conference Planning Committee, Pharm. Grace Ikani and Lagos State Coordinator, Richard Eseka, during the courtesy call which held at the Moniepoint Inc office in Lagos

These subjects among many were raised during a courtesy visit by some National Executive members of the Association of Community Pharmacists of Nigeria (ACPN) to the Moniepoint Inc office in Lagos. With an average of 480,000 daily footfalls across over 6,000 community pharmacies in Nigeria, the ACPN plays a vital role in Nigeria’s healthcare system as front-line workers who promote public health and well-being, beyond dispensing medications as they serve as trusted healthcare providers within communities, offering valuable advice, counsel, and preventive care.

Leading the ACPN delegation, the National Chairman, ACPN, Pharm Wale Oladigbolu lauded the giant strides made by Moniepoint in providing reliable and seamless digital payment services to community pharmacies across the country adding that some other players in the pharmaceutical still operated primarily with cash, thus limiting their growth potential and financial inclusion.

He noted that Nigeria’s health care industry was ripe for disruption using digital and technological know-how to achieve UHC, social health insurance, supply chain systems and data for policy formulation.

“This visit to Moniepoint today is underscored by our belief that a well structured collaboration between both organizations will produce transformative high yield results and benefit the nation’s healthcare system at large. Such collaborations enhance not only the operational efficiency of our pharmacies but also ensure that our patients and customers benefit from the convenience and security of digital financial services. Integrating financial technology seamlessly into everyday health services, making them more accessible and efficient for all is a noble task that all stakeholders should strive towards achieving,” he said.

Furthermore, he solicited for Moniepoint’s robust participation at the Association’s 43rd annual Scientific Conference scheduled for Ibadan, Oyo State later in the year. He noted that this year’s event will deliver a peerless experience for all attendees in terms of skills and knowledge acquisition, as well as the sporting and entertainment value added initiatives that have been lined up.

Vice President, Sales and Partnerships, Moniepoint Inc, Ifeanyi Duru who expressed his delight at the opportunity to collaborate with the ACPN and deploy the digital financial services provider’s cutting-edge technology to drive greater financial empowerment and inclusion in Nigeria’s healthcare industry.

“Creating financial happiness is our mantra and a more inclusive financial ecosystem that caters to the unique needs of the health industry in Nigeria is in perfect sync with what we stand for at Moniepoint. There is a significant opportunity here to elevate the interests of community pharmacists and give fresh impetus to the way community pharmacies operate by layering tech and digital payments for socio-economic development. The potential impact of this collaborative effort especially in bridging significant gaps in the value chain is huge and one which we relish the opportunity to tackle,” he said.

Notable professionals present during the visit include National Secretary, ACPN, Pharm. Omokhafe Ashore, Chairman, ACPN Conference Planning Committee, Pharm. Grace Ikani, Regional Sales Manager, Moniepoint Inc, Emmanuel Imouokhome, State Coordinator, Richard Eseka, Public Relations Manager, Moniepoint Inc, Bemigho Awala and Brand Story-teller, Emmanuel Paul.

Moniepoint’s comprehensive and easy to use suite of payment, banking, credit, and business management tools continues to empower over 2 million individuals and businesses across the country to thrive and better serve their communities in a manner that drives economic growth and social impact.


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E-Financial

Fidelity Bank Commends Air Peace’s Performance

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Fidelity Bank Plc has commended Air Peace’s performance since it commenced flight operations about 10 years ago.

Dr. Nneka Onyeali-Ikpe, the Managing Director, Fidelity Bank Plc gave the commendation over the weekend in Lagos during a special event organised for the airline by the bank to celebrate Air Peace for the milestone of commencement of direct flights from Lagos to London.

According to Nneka Onyeali-Ikpe, who doubled as the host at the event, the airline has upheld the principles of financial discipline and good corporate governance since inception, while it has also been very loyal to the bank.

She expressed delight that the bank had the airline as one of its major clients since inception, stressing that the Bank was celebrating the airline’s milestone of launching direct flight service to London and other developments it would attain in the future.

The event, which held at the Civic Center, Victoria Island, Lagos, had in attendance several bank Managing Directors, stakeholders in the aviation sector, media personalities and well-wishers of both brands.

Speaking at the event, an elated Dr. Allen Onyema, the Chairman, Air Peace, observed that it was not rosy for the airline to attain its status and expressed gratitude to the flying public, the various aviation stakeholders, the media and the government for the continued support since it launched in 2014.

He specifically acknowledged the pivotal role played by Engr. Ben Adeyileka, the former Acting Director-General, Nigeria Civil Aviation Authority (NCAA), in helping the airline secure its Airline Operator Certificate (AOC).

He further commended Fidelity Bank for the consistent support and stressed that the bank had contributed to the success story of the airline.

“I call it our journey with Fidelity Bank. I did not envisage this day would come when an indigenous institution would be celebrating another indigenous institution. Fidelity supports real business. They keep removing people from the streets of poverty. Let other banks emulate Fidelity,” he said.

He reiterated that Air Peace was set up primarily to create employment, not for profitmaking, stressing that the motivation behind the business was to empower Nigerians economically.

“Air Peace was not borne out of the intent to profiteer, but to create jobs. Air Peace was not established because I wanted more money but because of the conviction that running an airline would create massive job opportunities. That was why we went into aviation”, he remarked.

He restated the airline’s belief in the Nigerian project, maintaining that supporting the airline meant supporting the growth of the Nigerian economy.

Onyema further craved for the support of all Nigerians on the Lagos-London route, which it opened on March 30, 2024.

He explained that the airline needed to sustain the route, stressing that this could only be done through support from Nigerians.

He said: “For every penny you pay to Air Peace, you pay to sustain the jobs of thousands of Nigerians and support economic growth.

“Air Peace flies you from any of our domestic routes to London. So, you can fly from Yola to London via Lagos. From the local airport, you are taken to the international airport free of charge with a seamless luggage transfer.”

He pledged that the airline would continue to fully adhere to the standard of safety and lauded the management and staff of Air Peace for their efforts in realising the London dream.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


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FG Recovers N57Bn Debt from 10 MDAs

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Federal government has announced the recovery of N57 billion from the N5.2 trillion liaibilities owed the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) and other bodies by Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs) of government

FG Recovers N57Bn Debt from 10 MDAs

Okokon Ekanem Udo, permanent secretary, Special Duties, Federal Ministry of Finance made the disclosure on Tuesday in Enugu State during a Sensitisation Workshop on Federal Government Debt Recovery Drive through Project Lighthouse Programme for South-East geo-political zone.

While declaring the event open, Ekanem stated that the debts came to the spotlight from data aggregated from over 5,000+ debtors across more than 93 MDAs.

This was according to a statement by Mohammed Manga, spokesman for the ministry.

Represented by Aisha Omar, the ministry’s director, Special Projects, Ekanem Udo, informed that it also received refunds to the government from companies who failed to deliver on projects for which payment had been made, adding that others are unpaid credit facilities granted to both corporate entities and individuals by the Bank of Industry (BOI), Bank of Agriculture (BOA), Judgment Debt in favor of Government and debts owed Pension Transitional Arrangement Directorate (PTAD) by Insurance Companies amongst others.

He added that data from Project Lighthouse revealed that many companies and individuals, who owe government agencies and refused to honour their obligations were still being paid.

This, he said, was done through government platforms such as GIFMIS and Treasury Single Account (TSA) due to lack of visibility over these transactions.

According to him, in actualising debt recovery goal, the Federal Ministry of Finance initiated Project Lighthouse, which has enabled the aggregation of relevant economic and financial information from multiple agencies who hitherto did not share data.

Ekanem Udo explained that, generally, revenue loopholes have been aided by poor information sharing and enforcement.

It may interest you to note that the Ministry, through the consolidation efforts of the Debt Analytics and Reporting Application, has been able to aggregate monumental debts of approximately N5.2 trillion, he said.

The Permanent Secretary who informed further that the debt aggregation effort is still ongoing stated that currently, approximately N57 billion has been recovered so far from this amount due to concerted efforts on the part of stakeholders and the Federal Government

He disclosed that the Ministry has taken steps to address this major revenue loophole, through the issuance of a Ministerial directive to all MDAs to aggregate all Government debt across the Public Finance Space as well as having a single window on the credit profile of Government.

 

 

 

 


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