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Opinion: Nigeria Ends 2017 on a Firm Footing

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By Lukman Otunuga

It has certainly been a phenomenal and somewhat pivotal year for the Nigerian economy which managed to climb out of its first recession in 25 years, during the second quarter of 2017.

The unsavory combination of heavily depressed oil prices, reduced foreign reserves, and a vulnerable Naira in 2016, initially fueled speculations of the nation’s macroeconomic conditions remaining depressed for a prolonged period.

However, the status of Nigeria’s economy did a pleasant turn around this year as core macro-economic indicators started to rebound.

The recession made it increasingly clear that the illness behind Nigeria’s economic woes was a heavy dependence on oil as a source of growth, but the cure could be found in diversification.

As Nigeria continues its quest to break away from the shackles of oil reliance by diversifying into other sustainable sources of growth in the longer term, recovering oil prices could still offer some benefits short term.

With the government’s revenues still dependent on the oil sector, the performance of oil in 2018 will have an impact on the economy.

Although supply-side disruptions and market optimism over OPEC’s production cuts balancing markets, have elevated WTI Crude to its highest level in over two years at $60, the question remains for how long?

With rising production from U.S. Shale seen as a threat to higher oil prices, the upside is likely to face some headwinds. Depreciating oil prices amid renewed oversupply concerns could easily trickle down to negatively impact the Nigerian economy.

Another risk to look for next year, is the possibility of OPEC formally requesting Nigeria to limit production by 1.8 million barrels a day- like the other oil producers.

With the 2018 budget based on oil production of 2.3 million barrels per day, this presents some headwinds to the successful implementation process of the budget, and could negatively impact the economy as a result.

Focusing on the macro fundamentals, the picture is encouraging, as inflationary pressures eased considerably from the peak of 18.72% to 15.90% in November 2017.

Exports followed a positive trajectory in 2017 which was supportive of GDP potential, while imports cooled as the nation consumed local produce. With Nigeria’s economic resilience stimulating investor risk appetite, the Nigerian Stock Exchange ventured higher; appreciating 41% year to date.

Due to improving business confidence in the country, the manufacturing PMI also rebounded significantly this year, indicating an expansion in the manufacturing sector.

In the most recent publication of the World Bank’s report on the ease of doing business, Nigeria’s ranking was pushed up by 24 places, underscoring the more promising economic outlook.

The Central Bank of Nigeria may be commended for its efforts to help stabilize the chaotic forex market this year by introducing an importers and exporters foreign exchange window.

With the window increasing the ease for investors to trade the Dollar, the Naira – which dropped to as low as N525 to the Dollar- staged a recovery, with prices trading around 365 as of writing. As we enter the New Year it is vital that Nigeria puts more effort into creating a stable and unified exchange rate across the forex markets.

It must be kept in mind that a liquid forex market combined with increased investment in other sources of growth such as agriculture, has the ability to tame inflationary pressures. When inflation displays further signs of moderation, the Central Bank of Nigeria is likely to take action by cutting interest rates from 14% to 12% in an effort to support economic growth further.

While the Central Bank of Nigeria is expected to cut interest rates in 2018 as inflationary pressures ease and the economy stabilizes further, attention should be paid to external factors. For example, with the Federal Reserve raising U.S. interest rates in December and the Bank of England potentially hiking rates in the near term to cap inflation, there is a possibility the CBN remains on standby during Q1.

As we enter the New Year, I remain highly optimistic over Nigeria’s long-term economic outlook but much work needs to be done in the short to medium term.  The nation remains in need of urgent macroeconomic and structural reforms, not only to support the current recovery but to place it on a path of sustainable growth.

With the IMF forecasting real GDP growth of 2.1% and the Federal Government targeting 3.5% in the 2018 budget, it will be interesting to see if the nation under or over performs in 2018.

Lukman Otunuga is a research analyst at FXTM


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E-Financial

FG Recovers N57Bn Debt from 10 MDAs

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Federal government has announced the recovery of N57 billion from the N5.2 trillion liaibilities owed the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) and other bodies by Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs) of government

FG Recovers N57Bn Debt from 10 MDAs

Okokon Ekanem Udo, permanent secretary, Special Duties, Federal Ministry of Finance made the disclosure on Tuesday in Enugu State during a Sensitisation Workshop on Federal Government Debt Recovery Drive through Project Lighthouse Programme for South-East geo-political zone.

While declaring the event open, Ekanem stated that the debts came to the spotlight from data aggregated from over 5,000+ debtors across more than 93 MDAs.

This was according to a statement by Mohammed Manga, spokesman for the ministry.

Represented by Aisha Omar, the ministry’s director, Special Projects, Ekanem Udo, informed that it also received refunds to the government from companies who failed to deliver on projects for which payment had been made, adding that others are unpaid credit facilities granted to both corporate entities and individuals by the Bank of Industry (BOI), Bank of Agriculture (BOA), Judgment Debt in favor of Government and debts owed Pension Transitional Arrangement Directorate (PTAD) by Insurance Companies amongst others.

He added that data from Project Lighthouse revealed that many companies and individuals, who owe government agencies and refused to honour their obligations were still being paid.

This, he said, was done through government platforms such as GIFMIS and Treasury Single Account (TSA) due to lack of visibility over these transactions.

According to him, in actualising debt recovery goal, the Federal Ministry of Finance initiated Project Lighthouse, which has enabled the aggregation of relevant economic and financial information from multiple agencies who hitherto did not share data.

Ekanem Udo explained that, generally, revenue loopholes have been aided by poor information sharing and enforcement.

It may interest you to note that the Ministry, through the consolidation efforts of the Debt Analytics and Reporting Application, has been able to aggregate monumental debts of approximately N5.2 trillion, he said.

The Permanent Secretary who informed further that the debt aggregation effort is still ongoing stated that currently, approximately N57 billion has been recovered so far from this amount due to concerted efforts on the part of stakeholders and the Federal Government

He disclosed that the Ministry has taken steps to address this major revenue loophole, through the issuance of a Ministerial directive to all MDAs to aggregate all Government debt across the Public Finance Space as well as having a single window on the credit profile of Government.

 

 

 

 


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E-Financial

Access Pensions Reaffirms Commitment Towards PBMs for Nigerians

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Access Pensions has emphasized its commitment to offering thorough guidance and assistance to customers interested in Pension Backed Mortgages (PBMs).

Head of Customer Experience at Access Pensions, Ophelia Alex-Iwuanyanwu, reiterated this commitment during a recent webinar organised by the company.

She also highlighted the Access advantage, showcasing the robust financial ecosystem provided by Access Corporation and how the firm is committed to ensuring the best for its customers.

Additionally, Chief Investment Officer, Access Pensions, Wale Okunrinboye, Regional Head, Business Development, Adaeze Raji and Head of Benefits Administration, Access Pensions, Zainab Bello, provided valuable insights to webinar attendees, offering tips to enhance pension planning security and manage personal finances effectively.

They reiterated the company’s commitment to delivering top-notch relationship management services. Alex-Iwuanyanwu said, “We offer competitive pension backed mortgage finance tailored to your needs, ensuring your goal of home ownership is achieved.

“We also guide our customers through every step of the homeownership journey, starting well before the application reaches us. We offer end-to-end guidance from our team to ensure a simplified process that reduces the turnaround time, from initiation to PENCOM’s approval.”

She further added that clients benefit from dedicated relationship managers, access to digital channels, financial literacy programs and superior investment returns. Additionally, efficient benefits administration ensures timely pension payouts globally.

Also, Okunrinboye, speaking on “Investment Management: How do we manage your pensions” said: “Our investment process is built around applying an analytical approach to securities analysis, asset allocation, optimal trade execution and a quantitative approach to risk management.”

Furthermore, Raji discussed the essential steps to achieve retirement goals, emphasising the importance of setting clear income targets and developing a comprehensive plan to achieve them. She noted that this involves identifying income sources, assessing expenses, establishing a savings strategy, and effectively managing assets and risks.

Bello delved into the specifics of pension benefits. She outlined the eligibility criteria for accessing retirement benefits, which include various circumstances such as mandatory or compulsory retirement, retirement due to medical reasons, or temporary loss of employment.

Additionally, she highlighted the factors that determine the amount payable to retirees, including gender, the total balance in the retirement savings account (RSA), final salary details, and the age at which retirement occurs.

The webinar, hosted by Head of Brand and Communications, Mojisola Coker, provided an enlightening platform for customers to engage in a question-and-answer session, fostering valuable insights.

 


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Former SEC Leadership Failed to Regulate, Develop Capital Market- ASCSN

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Senior Staff Union under the aegis of Association of Senior Civil Servants of Nigeria (ASCSN) of Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has accused the past administration of the Commission led by Dr. Lamido Yuguda of failing in its mandate of effectively regulating and developing the capital market, which is an intricate part of the nation’s economy.

Former SEC Leadership Failed to Regulate, Develop Capital Market- ASCSN

ASCSN also urged the federal government to exempt workers of the commission from 50 percent operating surplus remittance

Abba Mamman Ali, chairman of the Union, stated this on Monday during a briefing with journalists in Abuja.

Recall that President Bola Tinubu had last Friday sacked Dr. Lamido Yuguda, former director general and announced a new management and board for the Commission.

While Mr. Mairiga Aliyu Katuka is the chairman of the new board, Dr. Emomotimi Agama is the new director-general.

Abba said the administration of the Yuguda “failed in its mandate to effectively regulate and develop the capital market, which is an intricate part of the Nigerian economy.”

Furthermore, he said the Yuguda-led Management “was insensitive and unresponsive towards issues of staff welfare especially issues bordering on staff promotion, gratuity and increase of staff emolument, amongst many others.”

He said, “Unfortunately, staff morale was at the lowest ebb under the regime of the immediate past Management.

‘It became clear to the SEC Staff Union and our parent body, the Association of Senior Civil Servants of Nigeria (ASCSN) that a vibrant capital market and a highly motivated SEC workforce could only be achieved through a change of SEC Management by Mr President.

“This prompted the Union to cry out to His Excellency, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. By clearing out the ineffective SEC Management led by Lamido Yuguda, His Excellency, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has lived up to his sterling reputation as a listening President.”

He said the SEC Staff Union has pledged to collaborate seamlessly with the new board under the leadership of board chairman, Mr. Mairiga Aliyu Katuka and Director General, Dr. Emomotimi Agama, to deliver a vibrant capital market in line with President Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda.

However, to achieve this, he called for the commission to be exempted from the 50 per cent deductions on operating surplus as contained in the Finance Act 2024 because the Commission is a development institution.

He said, “We want this management to look into issues of staff promotion, vacancies and gratuity. We urge them to look at it very well and settle those issues as they concern staff directly.

“Also, there is need for Management to meet with the government on the issue of 50 per cent deductions on operating surplus. These deductions have almost incapacitated the Commission as the SEC has been having great difficulties carrying out its dual functions of regulating and developing the capital market.”

On the capital market, he said the Union is “urging the new management to constitute a market wide committee who will proffer solutions to the various issues currently bedevilling the market.”


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