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Oil Prices: OPEC No Longer in Charge
The failure of the cartel partners in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to agree to a production cut that would put a brake on plummeting crude prices show that the cartel may have outlived its usefulness, NY Times has suggested
The greatest beneficiary is the United States where since the economically crippling oil embargo of 1973, every American president has pledged to seek and achieve energy independence.
On Friday, the benchmark American price for crude oil continued the free fall that began on Thursday, closing at $66.15, its lowest price in more than four years.
The inability or unwillingness of OPEC to act showed that the cartel was no longer the dominating producer whose decisions determine global supplies and prices. Suddenly, the United States — which is poised to surpass Saudi Arabia as the world’s top producer, possibly in a matter of months — is in that position, although the resiliency of that new command must still be tested.
“This is a historic turning point,” said Daniel Yergin, the energy historian. “The defining force now in world oil today is the growth of U.S. production. The outcome of the OPEC meeting is a clear indication that the oil exporters now recognize that this is a new market.”
For decades, the United States faced dwindling domestic production and rising demand, leading President George W. Bush to call on the country to get off its “addiction” to imported oil. But around eight years ago a few small oil companies began experimenting to produce oil from hard shale rocks in North Dakota and Texas, using hydraulic fracturing — fracking — and horizontal drilling techniques that proved effective in producing natural gas a few years earlier.
Domestic oil production has soared more 70 percent over the last six years, to roughly nine million barrels a day. The country is still a net importer, but with production growing by more than a million barrels a day every year, it is importing less and less almost every month.
Imports from OPEC producers have been cut by more than a half in recent years, forcing increasing competition among Saudi Arabia and other exporting countries seeking to replace the American market with Chinese and other Asian markets. That has produced more cracks in an organization in which competition between Saudi Arabia and Iran is already fierce.
That remarkable global turnaround has been a windfall for the United States, helping keep inflation in check, lower the trade deficit, strengthen the American dollar and bring relief to consumers.
On Friday, Americans paid an average of $2.79 a gallon for regular gasoline, according to the AAA motor club, nearly 50 cents less than a year ago.
For David Goldwyn, the State Department’s coordinator for international energy affairs in the first Obama administration, OPEC’s decision not to cut was “strategic .”
“What we have now is a yearlong game of chicken,” he said. “The Saudis are waiting to see how much U.S. production adjusts because of prices and they are waiting to see how much pain the other major oil producers can take before they are willing to make meaningful cuts.” Referring to the global oil benchmark, he added, “If Brent sinks below $60, I think you will see OPEC hit the panic button pretty fast.” That would mean an extraordinary OPEC meeting, and emergency cuts in production.
The Brent price has fallen more than a third since June and closed on Friday at $70.15 a barrel.
For OPEC producers like Venezuela and Iran, the tumbling price in oil has produced economic hardship and potential political problems.
Venezuela and Algeria contend that OPEC needed to band to together to cut production and raise prices. But Saudi Arabia has by far the most sway in OPEC, since the kingdom produces roughly one-third of OPEC output alone. It also has the financial muscle and spare capacity to lower or raise production whenever the Saudi royal family deems necessary.
Saudi Arabia resisted calls for lower production mainly because the countries that were most vociferous in calling for cuts would be the countries least able to actually cut their production since their cash-short governments are dependent on more, not less oil revenue.
And there was no guarantee that a cut in OPEC production would raise prices. Even if it did, that would only encourage more American output. So far, United States oil production has proved resilient no matter the price.
Even as prices slid in October, production in the Bakken shale field in North Dakota and the Eagle Ford field in Texas — the two primary promoters of the American oil production boom — increased more than 3 percent over the month before.
That is because American producers keep improving the efficiency and output of their wells with new technology, and because in the short run, lower prices can actually encourage companies to produce more to pay debts and dividends.
Energy experts caution that there is no guarantee that the United States will permanently keep its new powerful edge on world markets. Eventually, low oil prices will drive down production in higher-cost fields, drive marginal companies that are deeply in debt out of business and encourage major companies to slow down their investment in new wells. Several companies have already shaved their 2015 exploration budgets.
And OPEC has been weakened before, only to stage a comeback. The cartel is still able to produce about a third of the global oil market.
After the oil price spikes of the 1970s, the United States and other industrialized countries raised their strategic reserves, put into effect conservation policies and incentivized oil production. New output from places like Alaska and the North Sea in the 1980s helped produce a glut, sending oil prices plummeting. Saudi Arabia lobbied its OPEC partners for production quota cuts, and the kingdom cut its own production. When other OPEC members failed to comply with the new quotas, prices collapsed in 1986, and Saudi Arabia lost valuable markets for years to come.
OPEC has never completely regained the power it once had, but in the early 2000s, oil prices spiked again primarily because of the rapid growth in demand from China and other developing countries and increasing unrest in several oil-producing countries like Nigeria and Venezuela. With the oil market growing tighter, Saudi Arabia expanded its spare capacity and kept a lid on spiraling prices.
An equilibrium price of around $100 a barrel kept producing and consuming countries reasonably happy. But now the United States production, combined with slowing economic activity in China and Europe, have broken the balance.
“OPEC still has power in that they can still cut production and raise price if they choose to do so,” said Michael C. Lynch, president of Strategic Energy and Economic Research and sometimes an adviser to OPEC. But he added, “They don’t have the same power they once did because so many of the members are in bad financial condition and so it’s harder for them to cut production and lose revenues in the short term to raise prices.”
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Remedial Health Unveils New App with Digital POS to power operations for Africa’s Neighbourhood Pharmacies
Remedial Health, a health tech startup that develops solutions to make Africas pharmaceutical value chain more efficient has unveiled an updated version of its customer-facing app, designed to function as an operating system for neighbourhood pharmacies and Proprietary Patent Medicine Vendors (PPMVs) across the continent.
The new app comes with a digital POS terminal to support payment collection, virtual business accounts to receive payments, an in-built barcode scanner feature for recording product sales and store-switch functionality to enable the seamless management of multiple stores, as well as inventory management solutions for restocking and easily identifying short-dated products.
The app also offers comprehensive financial reporting to manage profit and loss, and data analytics to inform decision making.
Despite accounting for 85 per cent of retail medicines sold in Africa’s pharmaceutical industry (projected to reach $70 billion market size by 2030), the absence of bespoke digital tools to manage their unique sales and inventory management needs means neighbourhood pharmacies and Proprietary patent Medicine Vendors (PPMVs) are unable to run their operations as effectively and profitably as possible.
At the same time, the reliance on paper-based inventory and sales management processes means manufacturers have limited empirical insights into customer behaviour to inform their decisions on production and distribution.
The new Remedial Health app has been designed specifically for healthcare businesses in Africa, with tailored features that have been designed to support effective decision making to drive business growth and profitability.
Starting in Nigeria, healthcare businesses can access vetted medicines, and manage their sales and inventory on one easy-to-use platform, freeing up time and capacity to effectively serve their customers and communities.
The app also enables Remedial Health to provide consolidated, real-time data on market behaviour to manufacturers for increased profitability and better decision-making across the value chain.
According to Samuel Okwuada, CEO, and co-founder of Remedial Health, “Neighbourhood pharmacies and PPMVs represent the frontline of healthcare delivery in Africa but they have historically been left to their own devices to figure out how to be efficient and profitable.
“Our mission is to empower these essential service providers with the tools they need to manage day-to-day operations and seamlessly run their practices effectively. We spent a lot of time interacting with our customers in the process of delivering this product and the feedback has been great.
“We are excited by the opportunity to get the app into the hands of pharmacies and PPMVs across the country to support their ongoing success, as well as the health and wellbeing of the nation”.
In 2023, Remedial Health sold more than 300 million individual packs of medicines to 7,500 hospitals, neighbourhood pharmacies and PPMVs across all 36 states of Nigeria.
Its customers also improved their profits by 30 per cent on average, with access to more than 8,000 vetted products at the same, or better than, open-air medicine market prices.
They can also access same-day delivery and leverage inventory financing to minimise cash-flow friction for routine orders and maximise sales opportunities.
EnterpriseNGR has signed a Memorandum of Understanding to set up the Africa Roundtable of Financial Centres – a chapter of the World Alliance of International Financial Centres, in Mauritius, Morocco and Rwanda.
The MoU, signed recently in Mauritius, brought together EnterpriseNGR, the Economic Development Board of Mauritius, Casablanca Finance City Authority, and Rwanda Finance Limited to foster collaboration, promote investment opportunities, and drive sustainable development within the financial centres of its member countries and Africa at large.ort the exchange of best practices between members, enhance visibility regionally
A statement from EnterpriseNGR said that it was joining forces with the three countries to specifically pursue five key objectives.
These objectives include “Jointly strengthen the competitiveness of financial centres in Africa. Collaborate through projects, research papers, communiques, and events to position the African Continent, demonstrate the myriad of investment opportunities, and showcase the role that financial centres play within the African Continent.
“Conduct joint initiatives to supp and internationally, and provide African financial centres with a unified voice regionally and internationally.
“Facilitate the development of dialogue with major financial centres outside the African Continent and build communication channels with African institutions, including regulators and policymakers, as well as African financial services industry associations, and advocate for regulatory coordination amongst members of the Africa Roundtable to promote cross-border investments and financial services.”
Commenting on this collaboration, the Chairperson of the Africa Roundtable, Mr Ken Poonoosamy, said, “The signing of the Memorandum of Understanding for the Africa Roundtable of the WAIFC represents a pivotal stride in fostering synergy among financial hubs within the African sphere, with the shared objective of catalysing economic advancement across the continent.”
Ms Obi Ibekwe, the Chief Executive Officer of EnterpriseNGR, represented by the Director of Policy & Public Affairs, Mr Lami Adekola, expressed her excitement over the development.
She said, “It is a historic achievement, and EnterpriseNGR fully endorses the Africa Roundtable of the WAIFC and is excited for the immense opportunities it represents for Nigeria and the African continent. Our collaboration with the four African countries promises to bolster financial competitiveness on the Continent and amplify Africa’s global presence.
We will leverage this Roundtable to unlock the full potential of African financial centres to drive prosperity and development for our nations and beyond.”
EnterpriseNGR became a member of WAIFC in 2023 during the WAIFC board meeting hosted by TheCityUK in London.
The MoU, which was signed recently in Mauritius, brought together EnterpriseNGR, the Economic Development Board of Mauritius, Casablanca Finance City Authority, and Rwanda Finance Limited, to foster collaboration, promote investment opportunities, and drive sustainable development within the financial centres of its member countries.
A statement from EnterpriseNGR said that it was joining forces with the three countries to pursue five key objectives.
According to the group, these objectives include “jointly strengthen the competitiveness of financial centres in Africa. Collaborate through projects, research papers, communiques, and events to position the African continent, demonstrate the myriad of investment opportunities, and showcase the role that financial centres play within the African continent”.
It added that it would enable it to “Conduct joint initiatives to support the exchange of best practices between members, enhance visibility regionally and internationally, and to provide African financial centres with a unified voice regionally and internationally.
Facilitate the development of dialogue with major financial centres outside the African Continent and build communication channels with African institutions, including regulators and policymakers, as well as African financial services industry associations, and advocate for regulatory coordination amongst members of the Africa Roundtable to promote cross-border investments and financial services”.
Commenting on the collaboration, the Chairperson of the Africa Roundtable, Mr Ken Poonoosamy, asserted, “The signing of the Memorandum of Understanding for the Africa Roundtable of the WAIFC represents a pivotal stride in fostering synergy among financial hubs within the African sphere, with the shared objective of catalysing economic advancement across the continent.”
Ms Obi Ibekwe, the Chief Executive Officer of EnterpriseNGR, represented by the Director of Policy & Public Affairs, Mr Lami Adekola, expressed her excitement over the development.
She stated, “It is a historic achievement, and EnterpriseNGR fully endorses the Africa Roundtable of the WAIFC and is excited for the immense opportunities it represents for Nigeria and the African continent.
“Our collaboration with the four African countries promises to bolster financial competitiveness on the Continent and amplify Africa’s global presence. We will leverage this Roundtable to unlock the full potential of African financial centres to drive prosperity and development for our nations and beyond.”
Amidst the daily influx of emails flooding into your inbox, it’s crucial to remain vigilant for signs of potential cyber threats. Keep a lookout for these seemingly innocent phrases that could spell trouble for your cybersecurity.
Trevor Cooke, the online privacy expert at EarthWeb, identifies five phrases you can search for in your inbox to weed out dangerous messages.
1. “Urgent Action Required”
Trevor advises, ‘This phrase often indicates an attempt to create a sense of urgency and pressure the recipient into taking immediate action without thoroughly considering the consequences.’ Cybercriminals may use this tactic to trick individuals into clicking malicious links or downloading harmful attachments.
Example: “Your account has been compromised. Urgent action required to secure your account. Click here to verify your login credentials.”
2. “Account Suspension”
Emails claiming that your account will be suspended unless immediate action is taken should raise suspicion. Cybercriminals often employ this tactic to coerce recipients into providing sensitive information or credentials under the guise of resolving a purported issue.
Example: “Your account will be suspended within 24 hours due to suspicious activity. To avoid account suspension, please confirm your account details by replying to this email.”
3. “Congratulations! You’ve Won”
Beware of emails proclaiming unexpected winnings or prizes, especially if you haven’t participated in any contests or lotteries. Trevor says, ‘Such emails often serve as bait to lure recipients into divulging personal information or clicking on malicious links.’
Example: “Congratulations! You’ve won a luxury vacation package. Click here to claim your prize by providing your personal details.”
4. “Click Here For A Special Offer”
Phrases enticing recipients to click on links for exclusive deals or offers should be approached with caution. Cybercriminals frequently use this tactic to redirect users to phishing websites designed to steal login credentials or install malware on their devices.
Example: “Don’t miss out on our limited-time offer! Click here to claim your 50% discount on all purchases.”
5. “Unusual Login Activity Detected”
‘Emails alleging suspicious or unauthorized access to your accounts aim to incite panic and prompt immediate action,’ notes Trevor. However, legitimate service providers typically communicate such notifications through their official platforms rather than through email.
Example: “We detected unusual login activity on your account. Click here to verify your identity and secure your account.”
How To Respond
Trevor recommends, ‘Upon encountering emails containing red flag phrases indicative of potential threats, the best course of action is to delete the email immediately and block the sender. Refrain from clicking on any links or downloading attachments to safeguard your personal information and maintain tight cybersecurity.’
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