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2021: Time for Nigeria to Move into Higher Gear?

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by Lukman Otunuga, Senior Research Analyst at FXTM

 2020 will be remembered for its extraordinary uncertainty, explosive market volatility, unprecedented events, supply chain upheavals and a worldwide wave of monetary policy easing.

The new year 2021 may bring renewed hope and a return to normality for many developed and developing economies but what are the chances it will happen by the end of the first quarter? COVID-19 vaccination programmes rolled out in the EU, UK and US and Nigeria expect the first Pfizer/BioNTech vaccines to arrive at the end of January. Hope for better days lies ahead and the positive news has been welcomed by investors.

However, while steps are taken to secure and improve the public health circumstances, economic circumstances are still troubled by the crushing impact of the pandemic. The economic impact of the pandemic will likely set personal incomes in Nigeria back four decades, according to the World Bank. The outlook for the full-year GDP growth is 1.1 percent compared to an estimated minus 4.1 percent, said the World Bank.

Meanwhile, Nigeria registered 1,184 deaths from COVID-19 and a four-week lockdown hit the informal economy hard, meaning that the short-term outlook appears clouded by persistent pandemic headwinds.

Fiscal policy moved ahead after President Muhammadu Buhari signed the 2021 appropriation bill of N13.59 trillion into law with the 2020 Finance Bill set to run concurrently. The annual budget dubbed ‘Budget of Economic Recovery and Resilience’ is expected to reposition Nigeria’s economy back to recovery, growth and flexibility. The bill shows an expected revenue of N7.99 trillion and an aggregate estimated expenditure of N13.59 trillion, implying a budget deficit of N5.60 trillion.

The medium-to-long-term fiscal outlook is one of the significant debt burdens which will need servicing. For a developing economy in the midst of diversifying away from a reliance on the crude Oil industry, this presents enormous challenges. The historical problems in Nigeria’s economy precede the COVID-19 exposures and are mainly to do with structural weaknesses bombarded by persistent external shocks.

The Nigerian economy slipped into a recession in the third quarter of last year after GDP contracted by minus 3.62 percent. Classically, recessions in Nigeria were mostly caused by a fall in the price of crude Oil and the relatively limited fiscal and monetary buffers within a structurally weak economy.

Pandemic response

The economic recession is likely to trigger changes in the benchmark interest rates in 2021 to support a recovery. Monetary policymakers will probably be concerned about the misalignment of interest rates in the fixed income markets, further supporting the argument for one or multiple rate cuts in 2021.

In related developments, the introduction of the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Special Bill as an alternative investment vehicle may absorb a proportion of the liquidity in the system and stabilise the interest rate environment, at least in the short term.

Prolonged recession?

At this point, the best scenario for the Nigerian economy is to save the long-term outlook from a prolonged recession. The World Bank warned that in the next three years, Nigeria could enter a recession the depths of which haven’t been seen since the 1980’s. Efforts have been made to harmonise exchange rates, introduce a market-based pricing mechanism for gasoline, adjust electricity tariffs to reflect the costs and reduce non-essential expenditures.

While there may still be short-term pain ahead, there is still time to enact a series of potentially politically unpopular reforms in line with the World Bank’s recommendations. These include enabling the private sector to be the engine of growth and job creation and redirecting public spending towards development projects and investments in Nigeria’s people and youth in particular, said the World Bank.

Difficult choices lie ahead for investors, consumers, fiscal and monetary policy makers and other stakeholders in the Nigerian economy. Nonetheless, the ground covered so far is promising and with better confidence generated by the vaccination programme, Nigeria’s recovery could move into a higher gear.


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Ugo Onwuaso is an ICT enthusiast. He believes technology should be used for general good. He holds a Master of Public Administration (MPA) degree from the Lagos state University. Dear Reader, Your support matters. But we believe that technology makes life more exciting and helps improve the lives of people around Nigeria and indeed the world. That is why, we have devoted our energy to independent reportage of technology and finance and how they affect lives. Our incisive and analytical view of how technology news affects the daily life help individuals and organizations make up their minds. Quality journalism costs money. Today, we're asking that you support us to do more. Kindly support our effort to deliver technology and finance journalism to everyone in the world. Donate as little as N1,000. Bank transfers can be made to: UBA Plc 1017156876 Communication Week Media Ltd

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NCAA Orders Airlines to Enforce $10,000 Currency Declaration Rule

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The Nigeria Civil Aviation Authority has ordered all international airlines flying into Nigeria to enforce the $10,000 currency declaration rule.

The authority said the rule is required for passengers to declare cash or negotiable instruments above the limit, as part of efforts to strengthen anti-money laundering compliance.

According to the NCAA, the directive, referenced as NCAA/CPD/ABV/298, dated 24 April 2025 seeks to address gaps in the enforcement of existing currency declaration obligations for inbound passengers.

This was announced in a statement issued by the Director of Public Affairs and Consumer Protection, Michael Achimugu, via his official X account on Tuesday.

“International carriers must take two key actions, which include “Make inflight or pre-landing announcements informing passengers of their legal obligation to declare any currency or Bearer Negotiable Instruments exceeding $10,000 USD or its equivalent upon arrival in Nigeria.

“Distribute currency declaration forms onboard for passengers to complete before landing. The NCAA has received reports indicating that some airlines are yet to comply with this directive”, the statement read.

The NCAA said these requirements are consistent with international best practices and are vital to preventing the illegal movement of large sums of money across borders.

The Authority warned that full cooperation from international airlines is essential, saying, “Please note that the cooperation of all international airlines operating in Nigeria is critical to supporting the country’s efforts to align with global financial standards.”

Accordingly, the authority emphasised that full implementation of this directive, particularly as it concerns inbound passenger declarations, is of utmost importance.

“Compliance will be closely monitored, and non-compliant airlines will face appropriate sanctions,” it added.


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Appeal Court Nullifies Registration of ‘KPMG Professional Services’

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The court of appeal in Lagos has asked the Corporate Affairs Commission (CAC) to revoke the certificate of registration of “KPMG Professional Services”.

Appeal Court Nullifies Registration of ‘KPMG Professional Services'

In a unanimous decision delivered on Thursday, the appellant court granted the reliefs sought by KPMG Nigeria against CAC and KPMG Professional Services.

The judgment was read by Abdullahi Mahmud Bayero, the judge.

The two other judges are Abimbola Obaseki-Adejumo and A.M. Talba.

In 2002, KPMG Professional Services was registered as a company with CAC despite the existence of KPMG Nigeria, comprising its audit, tax, and consulting arms.

The KPMG Nigeria has long been registered in Nigeria before 2002.

KPMG Audit was registered in 1969, KPMG Tax Consultants in 1990, and KPMG Consulting in 1969.

Displeased with the registration of KPMG Professional Services, KPMG Nigeria approached the federal high court.

The consulting firm had argued that the name “KPMG Professional Services” was deceptively similar to its long-established identity.

In 2005, the lower court dismissed KPMG Nigeria’s case, citing an alleged merger between KPMG Nigeria and Akintola Williams Deloitte as reason the company could no longer assert rights to the name.

The lower upheld the second respondent’s (KPMG Professional Services) counterclaim and ordered that KPMG Nigeria’s name be struck off the CAC register.

The lower court had premised its decision on newspaper articles stating that KPMG Nigeria reportedly merged with Akintola Williams Deloitte.

Delivering the judgment, Bayero ruled that the lower court erred by relying on newspaper articles to ascertain that KPMG Nigeria allegedly merged with another company.

The judge said the documents showing the alleged merger were not presented before the lower court, and the form of the alleged merger could not have been known.

“In any event, the only branch of KPMG, if any, that entered into a merger with Akintola Williams as stated in the newspaper articles 18, is KPMG Audit,” the judge ruled.

“The other spheres were totally unaffected. It would therefore be wrong to state that the merger (which has not been shown to this Court) of KPMG Audit with Akintola Williams means all the other areas of business, including KPMG Consulting and KPMG Tax Consultants, also ceased to exist.

“Even if the Appellants (KPMG Nigeria) had ceased to do business as the Court seemed to have held, the 2nd Respondents (KPMG Professional Services) should not have been carrying on business until the Appellant’s certificate of registration is withdrawn or set aside.

“They cannot use the name until the Appellant’s certification of registration is withdrawn or set aside. They cannot use the name until the name is removed from the 1st Respondent’s (CAC) Register of Names.

“The 1st Respondents can only assign the name to the 2nd Respondents after first taking it away from the Appellants.”

The court ruled that CAC erred by registering KPMG Professional Services despite the existence of a business name, which is already registered.

The judge reversed the earlier ruling of the lower court and reaffirmed the primacy of statutory protection for existing business names under Nigerian corporate law.

 

 

 


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Air Peace Launches Abuja–London Heathrow, Gatwick flights October 26

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Air Peace has announced the launch of direct flights from Abuja to London Heathrow and Gatwick airports, with operations scheduled to begin on October 26, 2025.

The airline said in a statement on Sunday that round-trip fares for the Abuja–London service will start from N1m, making it the first Nigerian carrier to offer direct connections from the capital to both of London’s major international airports. This was contained in a press release issued on Sunday by the airline’s spokesperson, Efe Osifo-Whiskey.

“Direct international flight services from Abuja to both London Heathrow and London Gatwick Airports, effective October 26, 2025.

“Air Peace becomes the first Nigerian carrier to offer direct services from Abuja to both of London’s major international airports, further solidifying its role as a leader in regional and intercontinental aviation.

“Travellers originating from any of Air Peace’s domestic destinations across Nigeria can now book through fares via Abuja to either Heathrow or Gatwick using a single ticket, eliminating the need for multiple bookings or baggage re-checks,” the statement read.

Similarly, the new route opens convenient access for inbound passengers from the UK to cities across Nigeria.

“Travellers from London can access multiple destinations across Nigeria using a single Air Peace ticket through Abuja every morning. These destinations are Lagos, Port Harcourt, Enugu, Benin, Warri, Owerri, Kano, Yola, Gombe and Asaba, for now. Other destinations will be added later,” Osifo-Whiskey stated.

Air Peace is also offering what it describes as unprecedented value in pricing and service.

Osifo-Whiskey said, “It provides a distinct competitive advantage, enabling passengers to travel between Nigeria and the United Kingdom with greater ease, efficiency, and value, due to the possibility of choosing multiple cities entry and exit points.

“Has the cheapest fares ever, starting from only 1 Million Naira round trip. Huge baggage allowance.”

The Abuja–London launch comes months after the airline began Lagos–London Heathrow flights, which started earlier in 2024.


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