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Nigeria Week Ahead: CBN Rate Decision, Inflation & Oil in Focus

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By Lukman Otunuga, Senior Research Analyst at FXTM,

The combination of mounting geopolitical risk and Fed rate expectations rocked global financial markets last week. Volatility is likely to intensify over the next few days as investors not only focus on these key themes but top-tier economic reports from across the globe among other high-risk events.

In Nigeria, the CBN’s recent removal of FX restrictions on 43 items sparked some optimism as dollar supply surged. This development offered an opportunity for the Naira to fight and was also welcomed by the IMF which acknowledged the series of reforms aimed at fixing Nigeria’s economy.

Nevertheless, inflation remains piping hot in Africa’s largest economy while interest rates are currently at their highest levels since the monetary policy rate was adopted in 2006. It is worth keeping in mind that, the inflation menace continues to draw strength from the removal of fuel subsidies, devaluation of the official Naira and security issues in food production regions. Given how inflation is projected to jump in September to 27.1%, the CBN is likely to raise interest rates at its policy meeting this week for the fifth consecutive time. This vicious cycle of rising inflation and interest rates certainly presents a risk to Nigeria’s fragile economy. The question is whether the central bank will move ahead with a 25bp hike or opt for a larger move to tame inflation.

Volatile week ahead for USD?

Dollar volatility could be the name of the game this week due to key US economic data and speeches by a host of Fed officials.

After receiving a boost from stronger-than-expected US inflation data, dollar bulls could switch into higher gear if the incoming economic releases support the case for another Fed hike in 2023. The US Empire manufacturing will be in focus on Monday, with key US retail sales and industrial production figures published on Tuesday and US initial jobless claims on Thursday. These reports will be complemented by speeches from various Fed officials including Fed chair Jerome Powell.

If US economic data miss expectations and Fed officials reiterate their dovish remarks, this could hit the dollar as bets rise over the Fed pausing hikes for the rest of 2023. A strong set of economic releases may fuel speculation around the Fed raising rates one more time this year – boosting the dollar as a result.

Commodity Spotlight – Oil

Oil prices ended last week gaining over 7% thanks to mounting geopolitical risks.

The global commodity has the potential to extend gains due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, home to almost a third of global oil supply. Bulls are likely to draw additional strength from the U.S. tightening its sanctions against Russian crude exports. Supply concerns remain rife with growing concerns over the conflict between Israel and Hamas spreading through the region, resulting in major disruptions in an already tight market.

While oil is likely to remain supported by supply-side factors, the demand side of the equation may create headwinds down the road – especially when factoring global recession fears. Looking at the technical picture, Brent bulls have a steep hill to climb before heading anywhere near $100. But the daily close above $90 last Friday could be the first signs of bulls reclaiming lost territory.


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Ugo Onwuaso is an ICT enthusiast. He believes technology should be used for general good. He holds a Master of Public Administration (MPA) degree from the Lagos state University. Dear Reader, Your support matters. But we believe that technology makes life more exciting and helps improve the lives of people around Nigeria and indeed the world. That is why, we have devoted our energy to independent reportage of technology and finance and how they affect lives. Our incisive and analytical view of how technology news affects the daily life help individuals and organizations make up their minds. Quality journalism costs money. Today, we're asking that you support us to do more. Kindly support our effort to deliver technology and finance journalism to everyone in the world. Donate as little as N1,000. Bank transfers can be made to: UBA Plc 1017156876 Communication Week Media Ltd

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Lagos Dominates NIN List as Nigeria Hits 117 Million Registrations

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National Identity Management Commission (NIMC) has announced a milestone achievement, with over 117 million Nigerians now enrolled for the National Identity Number (NIN) as of February 28, 2025.

Lagos State emerged as the top contributor to this figure, boasting over 12.6 million registrations, followed by Kano State with 10.2 million.

According to NIMC’s latest data, male registrants outnumber female registrants, making up 56.5% of the total enrollment at 66,281,803, while female registrants account for 43.5% at 51,079,521.

The report highlighted regional enrollment trends, showing an almost equal distribution across Nigeria’s northern and southern regions.

However, Bayelsa, Ebonyi, and Ekiti States recorded the lowest enrollment figures, with Bayelsa reporting a mere 758,111 registrations.

Lagos State dominated the charts with 6,870,915 males and 5,741,419 females registered, while Kano trailed closely, boasting 5,924,126 males and 4,321,929 females in its 10.2 million total registrations.

Other notable states in the top 10 include Kaduna, Ogun, Oyo, Katsina, and Rivers. NIMC expressed optimism about further improving enrollment figures in underrepresented regions in the coming months.


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DStv Revenue Plunges as MultiChoice Loses Nearly 4m Subscribers

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MultiChoice, Africa’s leading entertainment provider and operator DStv, has warned shareholders to brace for tougher times as the company struggles in a challenging economic climate.

DStv Revenue Plunges as MultiChoice Loses Nearly 4m Subscribers

MultiChoice has seen its DStv subscribers decline from over 23 million to 19.3 million in less than two years.

A huge portion of the subscriber loss happened outside its home of South Africa.

In an earlier statement, MultiChoice attributed the steep decline to economic pressures in key markets, particularly Nigeria.

“The loss in the rest of Africa has been primarily due to the significant consumer pressure in Nigeria, where inflation has remained above 30% for the majority of the last 12 months and, more recently, due to extreme power disruptions in Zambia,” the company said.

The company’s latest voluntary operational update, released in preparation for its financial results for the year ending March 31, 2025, reinforces the severity of its current challenges.

MultiChoice noted that the “challenging consumer environment has resulted in a decline in subscribers and limited revenue growth,” underscoring the financial strain faced by the company.

This development came amid increasing regulatory scrutiny, with Nigeria’s Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission (FCCPC) recently filing charges against MultiChoice for allegedly violating local regulatory directives.

 

 


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Court Fixes May 8 for Judgment in MultiChoice, FCCPC Dispute over Price Hike

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Justice James Omotosho of the Federal High Court in Abuja has fixed May 8 for judgment in the suit filed by MultiChoice Nigeria Limited against the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission (FCCPC).

Court Fixes May 8 for Judgment in MultiChoice, FCCPC Dispute over Price Hike

Justice Omotosho fixed the date after lawyers representing the parties adopted and argued their written addresses for and against the suit.

The court had earlier restrained the Commission from taking “any administrative steps” against the plaintiff following an increase in the service price of two of its brands; DStv and GOtv.

The restraining order was a sequel to a formal request by MultiChoice seeking the court’s protection from planned sanction from the FCCPC, over the increase in the price of DStv and GOtv.

At the proceeding, the court granted the Commission’s request for an extension of time to regularise its processes and also allowed the plaintiff to withdraw its application for interlocutory injunction which has been overtaken by event.

Arguing its case, MultiChoice through Moyosore Onigbanjo, SAN, its lead counsel, submitted that the bone of contention is “whether the defendant have the right to control the price at which the plaintiff offers its services to the public.”

While acknowledging the regulatory powers of the Commission, the senior lawyer argued that the Act establishing the FCCPC did not confer on it the powers to regulate price or prevent anyone including the plaintiff from increasing its prices.

Besides, Onigbanjo stated that the issue of whether the defendant can regulate price has been litigated before between the two parties, adding that the Tribunal had held that the Commission has no powers to regulate prices of goods and services in the country, except the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria.

The Plaintiff’s lawyer also submitted that even the president who is clothed with the powers to regulate prices has maintained “that his government does not believe in price control” but, that prices are determined by market forces of demands and supplies.

The plaintiff in addition submitted that if the FCCPC has no powers to control price “where does he have the powers to prevent the plaintiff from increasing price.

MultiChoice subsequently accused the Commission of discrimination, stating that all businesses in the country have been increasing their prices in line with economic conditions and inflation without the Commission raising an eyebrow, save with the plaintiff.

He, therefore, urged the court to grant all the reliefs sought in the suit.

While adopting his counter affidavit in opposition to the suit, Professor Joe Agbugu, SAN, lead counsel for the defendant, urged the court to first address the cause of action; which is the the issue of increase in the price of DStv and GOtv.

Agbugu disclosed that the Commission on February 25, wrote the plaintiff after it announced price increase effective from March 1, 2025.

According to the senior lawyer, MultiChoice was summoned to appear before the Commission on February 27, “they wrote that it was not convenient and proposed March 6. We then said that in the interim they should hold on with the price increment.”

Agbugu further stated that, “there was no issue of price regulation or fixing as at the time the action commenced.”

Besides, he claimed that the statute establishing the FCCPC, gave it “powers to check exorbitant pricing” and also powers to “regulate abuse of dominant position in the market” as it relates to prices and passing of cost to the consumer.

“The plaintiff occupies a dominant position in the television and entertainment,” Agbugu claimed, adding that the case before the court is not of price regulation but the powers of the Commission to investigate prices that are deemed exploitative and abuse of dominant position.

“The Commission is not to tell you to use price A or B but to determine that the price is exploitative” he said, “they ran away to be investigated over their planned action.

“Our action is not about price fixing; the issue is about whether the price is exorbitant…the mandate of the Commission is to protect the consumer.”

Reacting to the claim of discrimination, defendant’s lawyer, submitted that, “abuse of dominant position qualified them to be singled out for exorbitant pricing.”

Agbugu subsequently urged the court to strike out the suit and dismiss it because it attacks the major task of the Commission of protecting consumers.

“The suit should be dismissed and the plaintiff returned to us for investigation,” he added.

Responding, Justice Omotosho announced that, “judgment is reserved to May 8.”

 

 


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