E-Financial
Opinion: Nigeria Ends 2017 on a Firm Footing
By Lukman Otunuga
It has certainly been a phenomenal and somewhat pivotal year for the Nigerian economy which managed to climb out of its first recession in 25 years, during the second quarter of 2017.
The unsavory combination of heavily depressed oil prices, reduced foreign reserves, and a vulnerable Naira in 2016, initially fueled speculations of the nation’s macroeconomic conditions remaining depressed for a prolonged period.
However, the status of Nigeria’s economy did a pleasant turn around this year as core macro-economic indicators started to rebound.
The recession made it increasingly clear that the illness behind Nigeria’s economic woes was a heavy dependence on oil as a source of growth, but the cure could be found in diversification.
As Nigeria continues its quest to break away from the shackles of oil reliance by diversifying into other sustainable sources of growth in the longer term, recovering oil prices could still offer some benefits short term.
With the government’s revenues still dependent on the oil sector, the performance of oil in 2018 will have an impact on the economy.
Although supply-side disruptions and market optimism over OPEC’s production cuts balancing markets, have elevated WTI Crude to its highest level in over two years at $60, the question remains for how long?
With rising production from U.S. Shale seen as a threat to higher oil prices, the upside is likely to face some headwinds. Depreciating oil prices amid renewed oversupply concerns could easily trickle down to negatively impact the Nigerian economy.
Another risk to look for next year, is the possibility of OPEC formally requesting Nigeria to limit production by 1.8 million barrels a day- like the other oil producers.
With the 2018 budget based on oil production of 2.3 million barrels per day, this presents some headwinds to the successful implementation process of the budget, and could negatively impact the economy as a result.
Focusing on the macro fundamentals, the picture is encouraging, as inflationary pressures eased considerably from the peak of 18.72% to 15.90% in November 2017.
Exports followed a positive trajectory in 2017 which was supportive of GDP potential, while imports cooled as the nation consumed local produce. With Nigeria’s economic resilience stimulating investor risk appetite, the Nigerian Stock Exchange ventured higher; appreciating 41% year to date.
Due to improving business confidence in the country, the manufacturing PMI also rebounded significantly this year, indicating an expansion in the manufacturing sector.
In the most recent publication of the World Bank’s report on the ease of doing business, Nigeria’s ranking was pushed up by 24 places, underscoring the more promising economic outlook.
The Central Bank of Nigeria may be commended for its efforts to help stabilize the chaotic forex market this year by introducing an importers and exporters foreign exchange window.
With the window increasing the ease for investors to trade the Dollar, the Naira – which dropped to as low as N525 to the Dollar- staged a recovery, with prices trading around 365 as of writing. As we enter the New Year it is vital that Nigeria puts more effort into creating a stable and unified exchange rate across the forex markets.
It must be kept in mind that a liquid forex market combined with increased investment in other sources of growth such as agriculture, has the ability to tame inflationary pressures. When inflation displays further signs of moderation, the Central Bank of Nigeria is likely to take action by cutting interest rates from 14% to 12% in an effort to support economic growth further.
While the Central Bank of Nigeria is expected to cut interest rates in 2018 as inflationary pressures ease and the economy stabilizes further, attention should be paid to external factors. For example, with the Federal Reserve raising U.S. interest rates in December and the Bank of England potentially hiking rates in the near term to cap inflation, there is a possibility the CBN remains on standby during Q1.
As we enter the New Year, I remain highly optimistic over Nigeria’s long-term economic outlook but much work needs to be done in the short to medium term. The nation remains in need of urgent macroeconomic and structural reforms, not only to support the current recovery but to place it on a path of sustainable growth.
With the IMF forecasting real GDP growth of 2.1% and the Federal Government targeting 3.5% in the 2018 budget, it will be interesting to see if the nation under or over performs in 2018.
Lukman Otunuga is a research analyst at FXTM
E-Financial
FG Mandates NITDA to Remove Nigeria from FATF Grey List
National Information Technology Development Agency (NITDA) has been mandated by President Bola Tinubu to lead the implementation of the Anti-Money Laundering (AML), Combating the Financing of Terrorism (CFT) and Counter-Proliferation Financing (CPF) Data Management Platform project.
The project is aimed at removing Nigeria from the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) Grey List by 2025.
Nigeria was included in the FATF Grey List in February 2023.
NITDA is expected to build better systems to manage financial data and compliance in Nigeria in collaboration with the Nigerian Financial Intelligence Unit (NFIU).
Nigeria’s goal is to be taken off the Financial Action Task Force’s (FATF) Grey List by 2025.
During the project implementation’s first meeting, Malam Kashifu Inuwa, director-general, NITDA stated that the project will rectify the shortcomings noted in Nigeria’s Mutual Evaluation Report (MER).
According to Inuwa, FATF put Nigeria on the grey list due to seven problems, including the country’s incapacity to stop arms financing, growing cash inflows, and inadequacies in fighting money laundering.
“We had shortcomings in combating terrorism financing, anti-money laundering regime, counter-terrorism financing regime, and deficiency in our counter-proliferation financing regime.
“The main objective of building a better system is to help us with global compliance; to help Nigeria position itself as a key player in the global effort to combat financial terrorism and other crimes.
“This will help us to create visibility in Nigeria, as well as improve our global reputation and relationship in the financial market,” he said.
He claimed that by strengthening law enforcement, the economy, and investment, the project will enhance national security by enabling the tracking of illicit financial flows and the disruption of financial sector criminal networks.
Inuwa underlined Tinubu’s dedication to using innovation and technology to fight financial crime and corruption.
Nigeria deserves to be at the forefront of cutting-edge technologies, according to Rep. Stanley Adedeji, chairman of the House of Representatives Committee on ICT and Cybersecurity, who emphasised the importance of technology.
Adedeji promised that the National Assembly would see to it that projects received the money they were due.
“We are going to make sure that the right funding is put in place for this project without any doubt.
“We are also going to make sure that if there are any laws today that are going to impede or be a stumbling block to what this project stands to achieve, we have to go and amend those laws.
“If there are things that require executive orders so that we can quickly move forward, we will do whatever needs to be done,” he said.
Hajiya Hafsat Bakari, director-general, NFIU, called for more collaboration among stakeholders to sustain the gains of exiting the grey list.
According to Bakari, the grey list is not just a one-off project but a continuous project.
“The next cycle of evaluation will be done in 2027, and we do not want a situation where, after exiting the grey list, we still find ourselves in the next evaluation.
“This is why we have decided that the use of technology will give credibility to every statistic that we have, not just to our domestic stakeholders but also to our international partners.
“Everything should be done in real-time—accessible, credible, and factual; that is the project that we are doing today,” she said.
E-Financial
Dangote Cement, FBNHoldings, Others Lift Equity Market by N53Bn
The equity market rebounded on Thursday from its previous session’s loss, gaining N53 billion.
Investor interest in key stocks such as Dangote Cement, FBN Holdings, Guaranty Trust Holding Company, GTCO, and Fidelity Bank, alongside other advancing equities, contributed to the market’s positive performance.
The market capitalisation increased by N53 billion, or 0.09 per cent rising from N62.257 trillion at the opening to N62.310 trillion at the close.
Similarly, the All-Share Index, ASI, advanced by 0.09 per cent, gaining 87.11 points to close at 102,183.06, compared to 102,095.95 reported on Wednesday.
This performance brought the Year-To-Date, YTD, return to 0.72 per cent.
However, in spite the gains, the market breadth closed negative, with 35 gainers against 26 losers.
On the losers’ chart, Livestock Feeds led by 60k to close at N5.40, Eunisell trailed by N1.73 to close at N15.63 per share.
Neimeth International Pharmaceutical and Regal Insurance lost 7k each to close at N3.12 and 68k per share respectively, while Honeywell Flour shed 94k to close at N9.21 per share.
Conversely, North Nigerian Flour Mill led the gainers table by N4.95 to close at N54.45, Dangote Sugar followed by N3.65 to close at N40.50 per share.
John Holt gained 83k to close at N9.30, The Initiate Plc added 25k to close at N2.80 and Omatek went up by 8k to close at 90k per share.
Trade turnover settled higher relative to the previous session, with the value of transactions up by 76.82 per cent.
A total of 472.16 million shares valued at N16.70 billion were exchanged in 12,336 deals, compared with 435.54 million shares valued at N9.44 billion traded in 12,098 deals, posted in the previous session.
Meanwhile, GTCO led the activity chart in volume and value with 65.05 million shares worth N3.77 billion.
Culled from NAN
E-Financial
IFC Issues Record $2Bn Social Bond to Support Low Income Communities in Emerging Markets
IFC, a member of the World Bank Group, issued a three-year social bond, raising $2.0 billion to support low-income communities in emerging markets.
The transaction represents IFC’s largest ever social bond, and the largest US dollar denominated social bond issued by a supranational. The orderbook reached a total size of $11 billion, IFC’s largest ever order book for a single bond issuance. It follows a 1 billion Australian dollar denominated social bond issued by the corporation last week.
Announced on Monday, the orderbook grew steadily during the marketing process and continued to do so throughout the bookbuild.
“In an era marked by rising inequality and poverty, social bonds have emerged as a crucial tool for directing investments to essential projects in emerging markets,” said John Gandolfo, IFC Vice President and Treasurer, Treasury & Mobilization. “This bond will unlock additional funding for vulnerable communities and underserved groups in emerging markets in areas such as health, education, and food security.”
The social bond is issued under an updated social bond framework, which IFC published last week. The social bond framework received a rating of “excellent” from second opinion provider Sustainable Fitch, who confirmed the framework’s full alignment with the International Capital Market’s Social Bond Principles.
IFC is one of the largest global issuers of social bonds and the only World Bank Group entity that issues social bonds.
Barclays, Goldman Sachs, Nomura, and SEB acted as joint lead managers for the transaction.
“Congratulations to the IFC team on achieving great success with their second US dollar fixed rate benchmark outing of the fiscal year. The high-quality orderbook, in excess of $11 billion, and limited price sensitivity of the global investor base, is testament to the depth of demand for the IFC credit.
Despite a busy primary market, IFC achieved an upsized transaction at a minimal new issue concession. Barclays are honored to have supported this new issue,” said Alex Paterson, Managing Director, Head of SSA DCM, Barclays.
“Congratulations to the IFC team on an incredibly successful transaction with today’s three-year US dollar benchmark! This marks IFC’s largest orderbook ever, comprising of very high-quality orders from central banks, official institutions, bank treasuries and other real money investors from across the globe.
Tightening the spread by four basis points from initial price thoughts is a testament to IFC’s strong credit quality and global investor demand,” said Dorothee Amar, Managing Director, Co-Head of SSA, Goldman Sachs International.
“With this new $2 billion three-year social bond transaction (the first under the new framework), the International Finance Corporation has once again demonstrated its commitment to the US dollar market and its loyal investor base. Despite very congested markets IFC was rewarded with its largest orderbook ever and over five times covered for the deal.
The sheer volume and quality of the orderbook underscores IFC’s position as a US dollar market favorite and has enabled IFC to achieve the largest spread tightening seen in the market this year! Congratulations on this fantastic result,” said Spencer Dove, Managing Director, Head of DCM SSA at Nomura.
“Congratulations to IFC on this fantastic outcome. In a crowded market the response from global investors is truly an endorsement of not only their standing in capital markets but also of their leadership in the development of the social bond market. SEB is delighted to have been part of the team on this transaction,” said Anna Sjulander, Head of SSA DCM, SEB.
Proceeds from IFC’s social bonds fund a diverse range of social projects which include: affordable basic infrastructure (e.g. clean drinking water, sewers, sanitation, transport, energy); access to essential services; affordable housing; women-owned small and medium sized businesses who lack access to finance; and companies that incorporate people at the “base of the economic pyramid” into their value chain; as well as food security.
IFC is a frequent issuer of social bonds in public and private markets, in various currencies and tenors.
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