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Emerging market currencies pressured, but Naira stable

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by Hussein Sayed

The Naira has entered the trading week on a firm footing despite a stabilizing Dollar and global trade tensions pressuring emerging market currencies. There is a suspicion that the Naira’s stability could be based on continual intervention from the Central Bank of Nigeria. June was certainly a cruel trading month for emerging market currencies and this negativity could roll over into July if escalating trade tensions weigh on sentiment and erode risk appetite. It will be interesting to see if the Naira is able to maintain its stability at a time where trade war fears and prospects of higher US interest rates have triggered capital outflows from emerging markets.

Recession fears escalate as trade war heats up

It has been an interesting first half for2018. Economic fundamentals and politics took center stage as both fought for market influence. The Federal Reserve is in tightening mode as growth and inflation trended higher, while the trade war between the US and the rest of the world particularly with China and the EU intensified further. In parallel to these events the US administration provided massive stimulus to an economy that is already near full employment which led to further strengthening of the USDollar.

 

Looking at the big picture, strong economic growth in the US, despite signs of softening elsewhere, provided support for equities. However, geopolitical uncertainty and protectionism remained the key downside risk. We think that we’re in the late stage of the current economic cycle, but there are no signs of a recession yet. In such economic conditions equity investors should be more cautious when investing. A more selective approach is needed as valuations are likely to be further challenged in the months ahead as volatility is further elevated.

 

Given that inflation will be a key factor driving monetary policies in the second half of 2018, investors need to keep a close eye on Oil prices. The decision by OPEC and non-OPEC members to raise crude supplies by about one million barrels starting from 1 July was considered a negative factor for Oil prices. However, the rise in supply from some OPEC and non-OPEC members will be met by a decline from others; doing the math here will be complicated for investors betting on the direction of prices.

 

Iran currently faces the re-imposition of US sanctions on its Oil exports after the Trump administration’s withdrawal from the nuclear deal. Venezuela is also on investors’ radars as there are further signs that its Oil industry is entering a dangerous new phase. Meanwhile, Libyan Oil supply is also at risk with the current political mess. These three countries together may contribute to a fall of more than two million barrels a day by the end of 2018, which is likely to keep Oil prices elevated in the second half of 2018.

 

Investors and traders should also keep a close eye on the US Treasury yields. The gap between short- and long-term US bond yields fell to its narrowest levels since 2007, and as we get closer to the inversion, the probability of a recession becomes higher.


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E-Financial

SERAP Gives CBN 48-Hour Ultimatum to Withdraw ATM Fee Hike

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Socio-Economic Rights and Accountability Project (SERAP) has called on the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to immediately revoke its recent increase in Automated Teller Machine (ATM) transaction fees, describing the move as “Patently unlawful, unfair, unreasonable, and unjust.”

SERAP Gives CBN 48-Hour Ultimatum to Withdraw ATM Fee Hike

In an open letter addressed to Olayemi Cardoso, governor, CBN, and dated February 15, 2025, SERAP warned that the fee hike would worsen economic hardship for millions of Nigerians, particularly those at the lower end of the financial spectrum.

The rights group gave the apex bank a 48-hour deadline to reverse the policy or face legal action.

The CBN’s new directive mandated that ATM withdrawals at off-site locations, such as shopping malls, airports, and standalone cash points, will attract an N100 charge per N20,000 withdrawal.

Additionally, a surcharge of up to N500 may apply for transactions conducted at certain locations. The new fees are set to take effect from March 1, 2025.

In its letter, signed by Kolawole Oluwadare, deputy director, SRERAP criticized the policy, arguing that it would disproportionately affect struggling Nigerians while benefiting commercial banks.

“The manifestly unfair increase in ATM transaction fees will hit hardest those at the bottom of the economy and exacerbate the growing poverty in the country,” SERAP stated.

The organization further argued that financial institutions should bear the cost of banking operations, rather than shifting the burden onto customers, particularly those with limited financial means.

SERAP accused the CBN of prioritizing the interests of banks over the welfare of ordinary Nigerians, many of whom already struggle with the high cost of living.

The group pointed out that banks continue to report record-breaking profits while imposing excessive charges on customers.

“CBN policies should not be skewed against poor Nigerians and heavily in favour of banks that continue to declare trillions of naira in profits, mostly at the expense of their customers.

“The increase in ATM transaction fees will inflict misery on Nigerians and contribute to human rights abuses,” the letter read.

SERAP also noted that the policy contradicts President Bola Tinubu’s commitment to tackling poverty in Nigeria.

The rights group argued that the CBN’s action violates multiple legal provisions, including the Nigerian Constitution, the CBN Act, and the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Act.

SERAP highlighted specific sections of these laws that prohibit unfair business practices and protect consumers from exploitative charges.

According to SERAP, the increase in ATM fees discriminates against low-income Nigerians who may struggle to afford the higher fees, creates a two-tiered financial system that favours the wealthy, contradicts the CBN’s stated mission to promote national economic well-being, and violates international human rights obligations under the United Nations Guiding Principles on Business and Human Rights,

“The CBN has responsibilities under the UNGPs to take effective steps to avoid or mitigate potential human rights harm and to consider ending any charges or transaction fees where severe negative human rights consequences cannot be avoided or mitigated,” SERAP asserted.

“We would be grateful if the recommended measures are taken within 48 hours of the receipt and/or publication of this letter.

“If we have not heard from you by then, SERAP shall take all appropriate legal actions to compel you and the CBN to comply with our request in the public interest,” the letter warned.

 

 

 


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E-Financial

FG Seeks Fresh $300m Loan from World Bank for Health Security

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Federal government has engaged the World Bank for a fresh $300m loan to strengthen Nigeria’s health security infrastructure.

FG Seeks Fresh $300m loan from World Bank for Health Security

Information obtained from the World Bank showed that the loan, which is under consideration, will be implemented by the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) with the Federal Ministry of Finance acting as borrower on behalf of the Federal Government.

According to information on the World Bank website, the loan project is expected to “increase regional collaboration and health system capacities to prevent, detect, and respond to health emergencies in the Federal Republic of Nigeria.”

The project is currently in the pipeline stage, with the disclosure date scheduled for February 6, 2025.

The World Bank board is expected to give its approval on July 30, 2025, following necessary assessments. The appraisal is set for April 14, 2025, and implementation will commence in the 2026 fiscal year.

According to a document on the concept of environmental and social review, the Nigeria Health Security Programme aligns with broader government efforts to enhance disease surveillance, diagnostic capabilities, emergency response, and laboratory networks across the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory.

The programme’s primary objective is to enhance regional collaboration and strengthen Nigeria’s health systems to deal with emergencies. It falls within the World Bank’s investment in health, nutrition, and population sectors across Western and Central Africa.

According to the Environmental and Social Review Summary of the project, HeSP will expand molecular laboratory capacity, upgrade primary healthcare centres, establish emergency operation centres, and construct warehouses.

It will also deploy mobile laboratories and install water, sanitation, and hygiene facilities alongside solar energy systems to support health infrastructure improvements.

Although the total project cost is yet to be determined, the World Bank has committed $300m to the initiative. The funds aim to bolster Nigeria’s pandemic preparedness and improve response mechanisms for public health threats.

The initiative comes as Nigeria strengthens its public health infrastructure following lessons from previous outbreaks, including COVID-19.

If approved, the loan will support the NCDC in improving disease surveillance, diagnostics, emergency response, and laboratory services.

Nigeria has previously secured funding from international financial institutions to boost healthcare resilience, including financing for vaccine procurement, emergency medical services, and infrastructure development.

However, the project, categorised as a high-priority public health intervention, carries substantial environmental and social risks due to potential health, safety, and ecological concerns associated with infrastructure expansion.

Identified risks include increased medical waste, occupational hazards, and heightened energy and water demands.

Social risks range from potential grievances from stakeholders to concerns over land acquisition and implementing health interventions in conflict-prone areas.

 


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E-Financial

CardinalStone Acquires Radix Pension Managers

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Multi-asset management firm CardinalStone Partners Limited has announced the successful acquisition of a majority equity stake in Radix Pension Managers Limited.

 

Following this acquisition, Radix Pension Managers Limited has been rebranded as CardinalStone Pensions Limited, a statement from the firm read over the weekend.

CardinalStone Partners Limited thus solidifies its position as a key player in Nigeria’s financial landscape, leveraging its expertise and resources to enhance CardinalStone Pensions’ operations and service delivery. This transition represents a significant milestone in the firm’s strategic expansion in the pension industry.

CardinalStone Partners Limited, renowned for its comprehensive financial services catering to institutional and high-net-worth clients, boasts a team of seasoned investment professionals with a proven track record of visionary leadership.

On the acquisition, the Group Managing Director of CardinalStone, Michael Nzewi, said, “Our collective strength provides us with the pivotal opportunity to strengthen our position in the pension industry and broaden our range of services for our valued clients.

“By integrating the expertise and resources of all businesses in the CardinalStone Group, we are poised to deliver even greater value and innovative solutions to our customers across the board.”

Despite the change in ownership and brand identity, there will be no disruption to the operations of CardinalStone Pensions.

The firm will continue its business operations as a Pension Fund Administrator, the statement further highlighted.

 


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