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Oil: Will a sturdier floor make for a higher bounce?
By Han Tan, Market Analyst at FXTM,
In the third quarter, WTI crude is set to form a solid base to launch another attempt at the $65/bbl mark, providing the global demand outlook doesn’t deteriorate any further.
The downside for Oil appears to have been mitigated around the mid-$50/bbl range by the recent announcement of revived US-China trade talks, staving off the risk of an immediate deterioration in ties between the world’s two largest economies. Although the existing tariffs remain in place, the prospects of further levies being imposed has dwindled, at least for the time being. That ensures that the growth of global demand, while slowing, isn’t completely snuffed out.
Supply-side risks to remain manageable in Q3
On the supply side, the OPEC+ decision to maintain supply cuts at current levels until March 2020 should also set a stronger platform for Oil’s Q3 performance. Concerns about excess supplies flooding the market have been assuaged by a reported 163 percent compliance rate by OPEC+ members in May. With a goal in place to remove some 1.2 million barrels from global supplies in 2019, the tightened-for-longer Oil taps should ensure supply-side risks are managed.
Unexpected flare-up in geopolitical tensions could trigger fear-induced Oil spike
Simmering geopolitical tensions have also contributed to Oil’s rise as the current quarter begins. US sanctions on major producers have affected not just the physical delivery of crude, but also market sentiment. Oil market participants remain focused on US President Donald Trump’s Twitter activities, given his fervor for shaking up the global order while pre-empting his foreign policy moves with unexpected tweets. With market sentiment still fragile, any whiff of an escalation in geopolitical tensions could trigger a fear-induced spike in Oil prices.
Oil markets to remain cautiously optimistic in Q3
Still, investors might be remiss in believing that things are only looking up in the second half of the year. Developments surrounding US-China trade talks remain fluid, and recent history has shown that events can turn on a dime. Should negotiations between the world’s two largest economies hit yet another wall, the floor could give way beneath Oil. Also keep in mind that the existing tariffs already imposed by the US and China remain in place and have already dragged global growth lower. Additionally, should President Trump open up another front in US-led trade tensions, that will further darken the demand outlook for Oil.
US shale output could throw spanner into the works
Then there’s the surge in US shale output, which has been an unrelenting tide that threatens to drown attempts by OPEC+ to rebalance the markets. US supply has been on a record-chasing spree, having notched a new high for monthly output in April when it exceeded 12 million bpd, according to the US Energy Information Administration. Although the number of active rigs has dwindled as producers stateside appear to be shifting priorities towards profitability rather than output growth, their actions may not be enough to stop total US output from hitting 14 million bpd in 2020.
WTI crude expected to nudge higher in Q3
Such supply and demand risks could dampen the enthusiasm within the Oil markets for higher highs. Instead of leaping into the air, traders may just take measured moves in nudging prices higher. The key consideration for Oil in Q3 is how much resistance prices will face on the way up.
At the time of writing, WTI crude is trading below its 50- and 200-day moving averages. A break above those levels could be met with stiffer resistance at $61.92/bbl, while Oil’s immediate support line can be drawn at $52.28/bbl
National Identity Management Commission (NIMC) has said that the new National Identification Number (NIN) card can be used by Nigerians for financial transactions including payments and cash withdrawals, in addition to being used as a means of identification.
Kayode Adegoke, head of Corporate Communications, and Peter Iwegbu, director of Card Management Services, of NIMC, disclosed this during an interview on Channels TV.
Speaking on the card’s multi-functional use, Iwegbu said it will enable users to conduct transactions such as ATM withdrawals, online payments, and money transfers, adding that its chip integrates seamlessly with Nigeria’s banking system, allowing users to withdraw money or transfer funds regardless of the bank they use.
For his part, Adegoke pointed out that to streamline the process, banks would issue the cards.
“The way the card is going to be issued this time around, quite unlike the past, is that you have to get it through your respective bank,” he noted.
Adegoke further explained that while the NIN remains the core element of identity verification in Nigeria, the linked card offers extensive utility.
“The NIN is free, and we are enlightening Nigerians that whenever they go to any of our centres, the enrollment and issuance of the NIN are entirely free.”
According to the officials, NIMC is partnering with various stakeholders, including the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and the Nigerian Interbank Settlement System (NIBSS), to implement the card’s financial features.
This initiative is expected to provide value to banks while including previously underserved Nigerians in financial systems.
“We are bringing to them almost over 100 million possible customers who they can bank with,” Iwegbu stated.
In addition to its financial utility, the NIN card has been designed to enhance security and identification in remote areas.
“It also enables us to financially include some of these people who have been excluded and provide identification for those without means like an international passport,” Iwegbu added.
According to Adegoke, “You can decide the bank you want, the branch you want to pick it from, or even choose to have it delivered to your doorstep.”
Iwegbu assured Nigerians that the initiative is designed to address past challenges, including distribution and acceptance issues.
“The card will solve problems of financial and social exclusion, making life easier and smarter for Nigerians,” he added.
Africa Tech Alliance (ATAEx) Awards has, again, lived up to expectations by honouring individuals, organizations, and initiatives that have made significant impact on Africa’s tech ecosystem, focusing on categories such as digital transformation, cybersecurity, ecommerce, financial inclusion, sustainability, and emerging technologies.
For the year 2024, Kashifu Inuwa Abdullahi, the director-general Nigeria’s National Information Technology Agency [NITDA] received the Digital Transformation Leadership Award. The Digital Transformation Leadership Award is a national technology impact award that recognizes individuals or organizations that have made significant contributions to advancing technology in ways that drive national development and positively impact society.
ATAEx Award screening committee for 2024 nominated Kashifu Inuwa Abdullahi for the award in recognition of his role in transforming Nigeria’s technology landscape, fostering innovation, and supporting inclusive digital progress.
Dr. Ayotunde Coker is one of the leading players in the development of the data centre industry in Africa and is the Chairperson of an influential industry group, the Africa Data Centres Association.
Before joining OADC as Chief Executive Officer, Dr Coker led Rack Centre to become a household name in Nigeria and a leading brand in Africa, with global recognition and numerous prestigious international awards.
Throughout a distinguished international career as a technology and business leader, Dr Coker has held senior positions in finance, energy, management consulting and U.K. Government.
His achievements have been recognised by numerous awards, including the Distinguished Manufacturing Alumni Award (Cranfield Institute of Technology) 2020, and in the same year, he was recognised as one of the Global Top 30 Edge Computing Leaders by Data Economy Magazine.
He holds an MSc from Cranfield Institute of Technology and a PhD (Honoris Causa) from ESCAE University.
Other awardees include;
Blockchain Advocate of the Year – JUDE OZINEGBE, founder/Convener, Cyberchain; AI Startup of the Year – NeuRaL AI; African Cybersecurity Mastery Award – DIGITAL ENCODE LTD; ATAEx Internet Exchange Point of the Year – INTERNET EXCHANGE POINT OF NIGERIA [IXPN]; PR Champion of Africa Award – NEWMARK GROUP LTD; Africa Tech Community of the Year – InnovationBed Africa; ICT Company of the Year – TECOM CONCEPTS LTD; Best Data Centre Colocation Provider of the Year – DIGITAL REALTY [Nigeria]; Outstanding ICT Solutions & Innovation Personality of the Year – HAPPINESS OBIOHA, MD/Sales Director, Tecom Concepts Limited; Mobile App Defense Excellence Award – CED TECHNOLOGIES; Most Innovative Digital Bank Award – PALMPAY, and Life Time Achievement Award in Data Centre Management – DR. AYOTUNDE COKER, CEO, OADC.
Other ATAEx 2024 awardees are; ICT Innovation Storyteller Award – CHINENYE ANUFORO, Head, ICT Desk, Sun Newspaper; Digital Reporting Excellence Award – MARTIN EKPEKE, Publisher/Editor In-Chief, ITPulse; Trailblazer in Tech Award – MONIADE ADENIYI; Global Technology Innovator Award – AYODEJI OGUNMOLA; Tech Visionary Award – OLUWAKAYODE DURODOLA; Rising Star in Tech Award – OLANIYI IBRAHEEM; Business Intelligence Mastery Award – ADEDAMOLA BOWALE; Blockchain Community of the Year – LAGOS BLOCKCHAIN WEEK; Champion of Public Tech Infrastructure Award – GALAXY BACKBONE LIMITED; Direct Selling Company of the Year – QNET.
In his congratulatory message to the award recipients, Mr. Chike Onwuegbuchi, the co-convener, said that ATAEx Awards is part of the annual Africa Tech Alliance Forum (AfriTECH), which brings together tech leaders, policymakers/regulators, industry experts, and key stakeholders to discuss the latest advancements and challenges in Africa’s digital landscape.
“Recipients are celebrated not only for their achievements but also for their vision and commitment to leveraging technology for Africa’s development”, he said.
Nigerians will start paying for the new national identity card due to low revenue, according to National Identity Management Commission (NIMC).
Dr Peter Iwegbu, head of card management services at NIMC, said the payment was to ensure that it was produced for only those who needed it.
Iwegbu stated this at the two-day conference organized for journalists in Lagos.
He also added that the decision was made to avoid repeating the mistake of the past efforts to issue physical cards to Nigerians for free, which many did not collect.
“The government’s limited revenue is also a major factor in the decision to make Nigerians pay for the new ID card,” he said.
Iwegbu explained that due to the low revenue generated, the government could not fund the production of ID cards.
Mr Lanre Yusuf, director of Information Technology at NIMC, explained that the idea of a free national ID card in the past was not productive.
“To get the new national ID card, Nigerians will need to make a payment, select a pickup location, and then collect their card from the chosen location. The government has implemented programmes to make the card accessible to the less privileged Nigerians who cannot afford it but require it to access government support.”
“This initiative demonstrates the government’s commitment to inclusivity and equality,” Yusuf said.
He said that the versatile cards were scheduled to launch soon, and sample test cards had already been received.
“NIMC is working with banks across the country, which will make it possible for people to walk into any bank closest to them and request the card.”
“The new national ID card is a multipurpose card that can serve the purpose of identity verification, payments, and even government services,” he said.
The card will be enabled for all government interventions and services across various ministries, departments, and agencies. The card, powered by AfriGO, was launched in partnership with the Central Bank of Nigeria and the Nigeria Interbank Settlement System.
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