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Nigeria Rate Cut on the Horizon as Global Monetary Easing Cycle Gains Momentum

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By Lukman Otunuga, Senior Research Analyst at FXTM

Unfavorable macroeconomic conditions across the globe have prompted major central banks to embark on a monetary easing cycle to counter a global slowdown.

There is widespread speculation that the US Federal Reserve intends to trim interest rates in order to prevent an economic deceleration in the world’s largest economy. The global financial markets have reacted positively to the idea, which theoretically makes access to funding for business activities easier, boosting investor sentiment and economic growth. The US central bank’s caution is influencing other central banks like the European Central Bank, Bank of England and Reserve Bank of Australia among many others. In Africa, the South African Reserve Bank has already cut interest rates while the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is turning dovish amid deteriorating economic conditions in the wake of trade disputes.

However, in its July meeting, the CBN decided to keep its Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) unchanged at 13.5 percent to allow time for the full impact of other measures. So far, these include a firm bank directive from July requiring 60 percent of deposits to be available for lending to the real economy instead of buying government securities. These securities are high yield because of the current 13.5 percent MPR and understandably attractive to the banking sector seeking stable investments of their own. Making sure money is in circulation instead of being tied up in government bonds sounds like a rational way to keep the economy on the road to recovery.

After surprising markets with an unexpected rate cut in March, the central bank could cut interest rates again during the second half of 2019. However, reducing the MPR when the inflation rate is already at 11.22 percent risks further overheating prices. Like many other emerging economies, Nigeria may be exposed to the impacts of a global slowdown but its economy is very different to the US’ which is currently experiencing anemic price inflation. This may be why the CBN decided to prioritize reducing inflation to single digits and said it is in no hurry to reduce its key rate. In other effects, foreign investment in Nigeria is likely to see benefits from the CBN’s decision to hold rates at 13.5 percent. This is based on the argument that international investors may be looking for higher-yield securities than those in the mature markets, especially in the light of declining or negative interest rate environments in Europe and the US.

The global monetary easing bandwagon has affected the oil markets differently from global equities. Instead of being heartened by the prospect of better lending rates, investors are focusing on the weaker global outlook for growth and Oil demand. The fact that OPEC decided to maintain its supply cuts until 2020 on the basis of weaker demand for Oil only reinforces the impression that it would take a dramatic event to reignite supply-shortage fears. In addition, the US Oil industry is pumping output at record levels, meaning that OPEC supply cuts are effectively neutralized in terms of boosting Oil prices. These circumstances have pressured Oil price benchmarks, West Texas Intermediary (WTI) and Brent Crude. Oil prices depreciated during the course of July, pulled back by a reverse tide of lower growth expectations.

The third quarter holds the potential for the Central Bank of Nigeria to cut interest rates. A fragile economic recovery coupled with external risks in the form of trade tensions and Oil price volatility should encourage the CBN to re-join the global monetary easing bandwagon. Although a rate cut is in the pipeline, the level of inflation will determine how many times the CBN pulls the trigger on rate cuts. Signs of easing inflationary pressures during the third and fourth quarter of 2019 could offer enough breathing room for the CBN to cut rates to 13% by year end.


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Ugo Onwuaso is an ICT enthusiast. He believes technology should be used for general good. He holds a Master of Public Administration (MPA) degree from the Lagos state University. Dear Reader, Your support matters. But we believe that technology makes life more exciting and helps improve the lives of people around Nigeria and indeed the world. That is why, we have devoted our energy to independent reportage of technology and finance and how they affect lives. Our incisive and analytical view of how technology news affects the daily life help individuals and organizations make up their minds. Quality journalism costs money. Today, we're asking that you support us to do more. Kindly support our effort to deliver technology and finance journalism to everyone in the world. Donate as little as N1,000. Bank transfers can be made to: UBA Plc 1017156876 Communication Week Media Ltd

E-Financial

SEC Flags Marino FX as Illegal Crypto Exchange

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The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has issued a public notice disowning Marino FX Limited, a company claiming to be a SEC-licensed cryptocurrency exchange.

According to the regulatory body, Marino FX is neither registered nor authorized to operate in any capacity within Nigeria’s capital market, including the facilitation of cryptocurrency trading.

In a recent notice, the SEC clarified, “Any claim to the public by the company of its registration or license by the SEC is false and misleading.”

The Commission also urged the public to avoid engaging with Marino FX or its representatives. “Transacting in the Nigerian capital market with unregistered and unregulated entities exposes investors to financial risks, including fraud and the potential loss of investment,” the SEC emphasized.

The SEC reaffirmed its commitment to safeguarding investors and combating fraudulent activities in the Nigerian capital market. This recent clamp down on Marino FX demonstrates that the regulator continues to enhance measures aimed at protecting the integrity of the market and reducing exposure to scams.

Recently, a public hearing was held on the proposed Investments and Securities Bill (ISB) 2024 which proposes a penalty of N20million or 10-years imprisonment or both for Ponzi scheme operators.

Emomotimi Agama, the Director-General of SEC, while speaking at the event, said that the bill also prescribed stringent jail terms and other stiff sanctions for the promoters of Ponzi operator.

He said that SEC introduced an express prohibition of Ponzi/Pyramid Schemes and other illegal investment schemes to ensure that illegal fund managers were not allowed to fleece unsuspecting Nigerians of their funds.

Agama added that the commission had observed areas which required review in the ISB 2007 to “strengthen existing provisions, remove ambiguities, introduce new provisions that would enhance the international competitiveness of the Nigerian capital market.”


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E-Financial

CBN Set to Retire 1,000 Staff, Earmarks N50Bn for Settlement

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is poised to retire approximately 1,000 employees before the end of the year, according to sources within the apex bank.

CBN Set to Retire 1,000 Staff, Earmarks N50Bn for Settlement

This move is part of a broader strategic realignment aimed at streamlining the CBN’s workforce.

Insiders revealed that the retirement package will cost the bank over N50 billion, with affected workers set to receive generous payouts.

The CBN’s Board of Governors, led by Olayemi Cardoso, has been driving this initiative to reduce the workforce and enhance operational efficiency.

According to Daily Trust, in recent months, the CBN has already disengaged several staff, including 17 directors who served under former Governor Godwin Emefiele.

A circular released by the bank three weeks ago announced the opening of applications for the Early Exit Package (EPP), which will close on December 7.

According to officials, the EPP is a voluntary programme offering eligible employees a financial incentive to exit the CBN early.

At least 860 staff members have already applied for the package, which includes financial incentives, financial planning, and entrepreneurial capacity-building programmes.

The CBN has emphasized that the EPP is a one-time offer, and staff cannot change their minds after applying. The bank has set a deadline of December 31, 2024, for the exit of affected employees.

Staff members who spoke to Daily Trust expressed mixed reactions to the EPP.

One staff revealed that they were offered a package worth between N92 million and N97 million for their four years of service.

Another staff expressed disappointment with the package, stating that it was inadequate considering their years of service.

 

 

 


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E-Financial

FG Begins N50 Electronic Levy Deductions from Moniepoint, Other Digital Banks

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Federal government has commenced N50 electronic levy deductions from transactions of N10,000 and above made by users of financial technology (Fintech) companies, including Opay, Moniepoint, Kuda, and others.

FG Begins N50 Electronic Levy Deductions from Moniepoint, Other Digital Banks

The levy, called Electronic Money Transfer Levy (EMTL), introduced under the Finance Act 2020, places a singular and one-off levy of N50 on the recipient of any electronic receipt or transfer of N10,000 or above, and was earlier announced to take effect from September 9, Tribune Online reported.

The introduction of the EMTL was, however, met with opposition from Nigerians, with various groups including the National Association of Nigerian Students (NANS) calling on the federal government to reverse its position on the implementation of the levy.

Meanwhile, in a notice sent to customers earlier in September, Opay explained that the levy was imposed by the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS), stating however that it did not benefit from it.

“Please be informed that starting September 9, 2024, a one-time of N50 will be applied to electronic transfers of N10,000 and above paid into your personal or business account in compliance with the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) regulations.

“It is important to note that Opay does not benefit from this charge in any way as it is directed entirely by the federal government,” Opay explained in its earlier notice.

In a recent development, the fintech companies have again notified their customers that the implementation of the N50 EMTL deduction has commenced from December 1, 2024.

Opay, in a message sent to its users on Saturday (also shared via its app), explained that the electronic levy deduction begins on December 1.

“Dear Customer, in line with the FIRS, the EMTL applies starting from December 1st, 2024,” the message reads.

Likewise, Moniepoint in a notice sent to its customers on Saturday, explained that it has commenced implementation of the EMTL charges, clarifying however that the levy will be remitted to the FIRS.

“Dear customer, you will be charged stamp duty of N%) on inflows of N10,000 and above. Moniepoint collects and remits this on behalf and to FIRS,” Moniepoint said.

Meanwhile, our correspondent also gathered that the EMTL implementation has officially taken effect with Fintechs already deducting N50 for the federal government on transactions of N10,000 and above.

 

 


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