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Mixed Trade Negotiation Signals Rattle Financial Markets

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By Hussein Sayed, Chief Market Strategist, FXTM

Investors across the globe are closely monitoring the high-level US-China trade talks, which will kick off today as China’s Vice Premier Liu He sits on the table with US trade representative Robert Lighthizer and US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin.

 

Several trade-related headlines have been released prior to the meeting and looking at the market’s reaction, there seems to be lot of confusion. Wall Street and European Indices climbed yesterday after reports showing Chinese officials offered to increase purchases of US agricultural products in the hope of reaching a partial deal.

 

Earlier this morning, S&P 500 futures spiked lower, falling 1.3% after the South China Morning Post reported that the two countries had made no progress on key trade issues during deputy level talks, and Vice-Premier Liu He may leave earlier than expected. However, futures pared most of the losses following a story from the New York Times that Washington will issue licenses allowing some US firms to supply non-sensitive goods to Huawei Technologies.

 

The Chinese Yuan climbed more than 0.3% this morning following Bloomberg’s report that Trump’s administration is looking at rolling out a previously agreed currency pact. Such an agreement may lead to further strength in CNY, but details of the pact are needed to better assess the magnitude of the move.

 

There’s obviously a lot of noise in the markets, and no one knows for certain how the latest round of negotiations will end. The lack of clarity will keep trading volumes low and volatility high, but it seems investors are remaining defensive for now. If talks break down and Trump’s administration raises tariffs next Tuesday, we are likely to see another steep selloff in risk assets.

 

Federal Reserve needs to better align with market expectations

 

The minutes of the FOMC released yesterday showed sharp division among its members about the future path of US monetary policy. Some policymakers are worried that markets are heavily betting on further easing following the two rate cuts in July and September. That’s obvious when you look at Fed funds futures rates compared to the Fed’s own dot plot.

 

Aligning with market expectations first requires consensus among policymakers, but Fed members are becoming increasingly divided.

 

The minutes didn’t have a significant impact on markets yesterday. Investors still anticipate an 85% chance of a rate cut by the end of the month according to CME’s Fedwatch Tool. This probability may change depending on the outcome of trade talks and upcoming data, with today’s consumer prices and Friday’s Consumer Sentiment in focus


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E-Financial

NBS Reports ₦6.72 Trillion VAT Haul as Tax Reforms Pay Off

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Nigeria’s Value Added Tax (VAT) revenue surged to ₦6.72 trillion in 2024, marking an 84.6% increase from ₦3.64 trillion in 2023, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). This sharp rise reflects stronger economic activity and improved tax collection efforts across key sectors.

VAT revenue showed consistent growth throughout the year. In Q1 2024, collections stood at ₦1.43 trillion. This rose to ₦1.56 trillion in Q2, representing a 9.09% increase. Q3 recorded ₦1.78 trillion, up 14% from the previous quarter, while Q4 peaked at ₦1.95 trillion, a 9.5% rise from Q3.

In Q4 alone, VAT collections totaled ₦1.95 trillion, with domestic VAT payments contributing ₦917.40 billion, non-import foreign VAT at ₦554.68 billion, and import VAT at ₦474.75 billion. Domestic VAT remained the largest source, indicating strong local business activity and consumer spending.

Several sectors posted significant quarter-on-quarter growth in Q4. Extraterritorial organisations and bodies saw a dramatic rise of 180.05%, followed by agriculture, forestry and fishing at 70.83%, and human health and social work at 46.13%. These gains suggest increased operational scope, improved compliance, and possibly targeted government incentives.

However, not all sectors fared well. Households as employers and self-use production contracted by 28.97%, while the information and communication sector declined by 23%. The drop in ICT may reflect shifting market dynamics or regulatory headwinds affecting digital services.

Overall, the surge in VAT revenue signals a positive fiscal outlook for Nigeria, with implications for budgetary planning, infrastructure investment, and social services funding. It also highlights the importance of sector-specific monitoring to sustain momentum and address emerging challenges.


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FIRS Unveils e-Invoicing, Electronic Fiscal System for Large Taxpayers

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Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) has commenced an electronic invoicing solution (e-invoicing) aimed at transforming digital tax administration and revolutionising tax payment in Nigeria.

FIRS Unveils e-Invoicing, Electronic Fiscal System for Large Taxpayers

The e-invoicing system, also known as the Merchant-Buyer Model, is designed to make tax compliance easier, faster and more transparent for all categories of taxpayers.

A statement by Dare Adekanmbi, special adviser on Media to Zacch Adedeji, chairman, FIRS, said the solution went live on August 1, following a successful pilot phase which began in November 2024.

According to the statement, large taxpayers, which are companies with annual turnover of N5 billion and above, are the first to be onboarded. In less than two weeks after the initiative went live, no fewer than 1,000 companies, representing 20 per cent of over 5,000 eligible firms, have embraced the solution and commenced integration with the FIRS MBS platform.

It noted that the remaining large taxpayers are expected to come onboard on or before November 1, the deadline for all firms in the category to complete their onboarding and integration processes.

“MTN Nigeria became the first taxpayer to transmit live electronic invoices to the FIRS, officially ushering in the e-invoicing regime. Huawei Nigeria and IHS Nigeria have also concluded test transmissions and are set to go live in the coming days.

“In collaboration with the National Information Technology Development Agency (NITDA), Service Providers have been incorporated into the ecosystem to act as both System Integrators and Access Point Providers. These providers will facilitate the onboarding, integration, and invoice transmission processes for taxpayers.”

The statement commended all large taxpayers, tax consultants, and service providers for their cooperation and commitment to the success of the project.

“We also acknowledge the genuine efforts of many taxpayers who strove to meet the 1st of August 2025 deadline but encountered operational constraints.

“In the spirit of encouraging voluntary compliance, the FIRS management has graciously approved a three-month extension of the deadline, with the new deadline now set for 1st November 2025.

“The FIRS e-Invoicing Implementation Team will continue to provide support through stakeholder engagements, including webinars, workshops, and town hall meetings, to ensure a seamless transition for all large taxpayers,” it added.

The national e-invoicing solution is an electronic fiscal system (EFS) developed by FIRS to provide real-time visibility into commercial transactions and ensure the authenticity, accuracy and completeness of invoices.

It is being implemented in phases, starting with large taxpayers, with medium and emerging groups to follow.

The initiative aligns with global best practices and supports the Federal Government’s broader objectives of enhancing revenue assurance, reducing tax evasion, and modernising tax administration.

It is also a critical tool in the implementation of the Nigeria Revenue Services Reform Act, which seeks to harmonise revenue reporting and establish a single source of truth for government revenues.

 

 

 

 


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First Securities Secures Remarkable Position in NGX Performance Report

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First Securities Brokers Limited, the stockbroking subsidiary of First Holdco Plc, recently announced its impressive performance in the latest Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Broker Performance Report. The firm secured first place in terms of trading volume and value of transactions for the month of July, 2025.

According to the report, First Securities Brokers Limited displayed strong trading activity and strategic market positioning, further solidifying its reputation as a significant player in the capital and equities market.

Fiona Ahimie, Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director of First Securities Brokers Limited expressed her pleasure at the firm’s achievement of a trading value of ₦414.457 billion, which accounts for 22.80% of the total trading value reported by the NGX during the review period. This performance highlights the effectiveness of the integrated model promoted by First Holdco Plc.

The Holding Company’s strategic focus on synergy within the Group played a crucial role in enhancing the performance of First Securities Brokers Limited.

“This remarkable achievement reflects the hard work and dedication of our entire workforce, as well as the trust our clients continue to place in us. It underscores our growing influence and effectiveness in the Nigerian equities market,” she added.

“Our focus on providing innovative and seamless trading solutions, coupled with deep market expertise, has been crucial to driving this success. We are not just a brokerage firm; we are strategic partners in our clients’ financial journeys. This recognition further motivates us to deliver exceptional value.”

“We remain committed to creating long-term value for our clients and stakeholders. Building on this momentum, we will continue to enhance our service offerings and further establish our position as a key driver of growth and development in the Nigerian financial market.”

 


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