E-Financial
Will the Central Bank of Nigeria Cut Interest Rates in November?
By Lukman Otunuga, Senior Research Analyst at FXTM,
Rising inflationary pressures are certainly weakening the case for the Central Bank of Nigeria to cut interest rates from 13.5% anytime soon.
Investor expectations over a November rate cut have deteriorated after consumer prices edged up to 11.24% in September 2019, its highest in three months. Should inflation accelerate more than expected in October, the CBN is likely to leave interest rates unchanged throughout the first quarter of 2020. Although the CBN governor has stated that inflation must slow to 9% or less before examining a rate cut, signs of economic weakness due to low oil prices and external risks could force the central bank to take action. While inflationary pressures remain a sore spot, a rate cut has the potential to boost the economy by stimulating consumption which accounts for roughly 80% of GDP.
Dollar buoyed as Fed weighs rate pause
Rising speculation over the Federal Reserve taking a pause from cutting interest for the rest of 2019 could push the Dollar higher. Given how Fed Chair Powell reiterated that is he content with the communication of a pause in interest rates cuts, the Dollar Index has the potential to break above 98.50. A combination of trade uncertainty and global growth concerns have the potential to accelerate the flight to safety, consequently boosting appetite for safe-haven assets like the Dollar. While Powell’s testimony on the economy before the House Budget Committee is significant, all eyes will be on the US retail sales report scheduled for release on Friday. Should US retail sales fail to meet market expectations, this may end up strengthening the case for further rate cuts in 2020.
Commodity spotlight – Gold
Gold has appreciated almost 1% against the Dollar since the start of the week thanks to market caution and general risk aversion.
Tensions in Hong Kong, fading optimism over a US-China trade deal and disappointing economic data from the second-largest economy in the world have dampened the market mood. With risk appetite set to diminish further on the growing uncertainty, Gold bulls are in the position to make a return.
In regards to the technical picture, an intraday breakout above $1470 should open the doors towards $1474 and $1490, respectively.
E-Financial
SEC Restates Commitment to Transparency in Fintech Regulation
Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has assured stakeholders in the fintech space it is committed to ensuring transparency and integrity in the regulation of the space.
Dr. Emomotimi Agama, director general, SEC, said it has provided a level playing field to all applicants.
Agama, stated this during a meeting with Regulatory Incubation and Accelerated Regulatory Incubation Program applicants on Monday.
The SEC DG stated that the commission understands the anxiety and the need to be regulated but added that they have to be very careful even in its desire to be inclusive.
He said, “The process of registration is a very technical process because registration is the hallmark of regulation. It goes beyond onboarding and registering, it requires monitoring, education, and surveillance and all of these are continuous. This journey is a new one that we have not gone through before. As we continue, we will find challenges, which we need to solve because every challenge is solvable.
“I am here to assuage fears being exhibited, we have provided a level playing field but as a government institution we must take things into context while doing this. The groups that were admitted into the ARIP and RI are beginning to see that we have started demanding for some information, operational updates and more regulatory requirements in line with the concept of a Regulation Incubation Programme or a Sandbox as some other institutions call it. In doing this, we are understudying what they are doing and the risk that they pose to investors and to themselves.
“We have not only done that, we have also issued new regulations to the public, which we call an exposure document. If you look at it, it is an upgraded version of our earlier regulations and the regulation making process demands that we get your views as stakeholders before it becomes a regulation.”
Agama stated that the inputs of stakeholders is important as regulators cannot claim to know everything adding that the rules would be amended to include all valid points to make it an all-inclusive document.
He further disclosed that the commission has increased the space to include more regulations to accommodate more individuals, more institutions and more functions because accommodation is the stance of the government regarding the space.
E-Financial
Ecobank Warns against Fraud during Yuletide
Ecobank Nigeria has cautioned customers to be vigilant against fraudsters during the Yuletide while promising uninterrupted access to banking services through its digital platforms throughout the holiday season.
In a statement on Monday, Adeola Ogunyemi, head, Consumer Banking at Ecobank Nigeria, emphasised that customers can continue their shopping and transactions smoothly via the bank’s various digital channels.
Ogunyemi highlighted the Bank’s long-standing commitment to digital transformation, which aims to improve customer experience and provide alternative access to banking services.
Ecobank Nigeria is an affiliate of the Ecobank Group, the leading pan-African banking group.
The bank offers a comprehensive suite of financial services and solutions to consumer, commercial, corporate, and investment banking customers at over 240 branches and 35,000 Xpress Point agencies across Nigeria.
E-Financial
CBN Permits BDC Operators to Buy FX from NAFEM During Festive Season
Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has announced that eligible Bureau de Change (BDC) operators will have temporary access to the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM) to purchase $25,000 weekly. This arrangement, aimed at addressing seasonal foreign exchange (FX) demand, will be effective from December 19, 2024, to January 30, 2025.
In a statement signed by T.G. Allu, CBN’s acting director of trade and exchange, the apex bank said BDC operators would buy FX from authorized dealers—banks licensed by the CBN—exclusively to meet retail market demand.
“To meet expected seasonal demand for foreign exchange, the CBN is allowing temporary access for all existing BDCs to the NAFEM for the purchase of FX from Authorized Dealers, subject to a weekly cap of $25,000,” the statement read.
BDC operators must fully fund their accounts before accessing the market at prevailing NAFEM rates, choosing only one authorized dealer for transactions under this arrangement. A maximum price spread of 1% is allowed for retail pricing by BDCs, and all transactions will be reported to the CBN’s Trade and Exchange Department.
The CBN reiterated that personal travel allowance (PTA) and business travel allowance (BTA) remain available through banks for legitimate travel needs. The bank emphasized that all FX transactions must be conducted at market-determined exchange rates.
“The CBN remains committed to a fully functional foreign exchange market and will continue to provide liquidity when necessary to manage price volatility,” the statement added.
Earlier in September, the CBN approved FX sales to eligible BDC operators at a rate of N1,590 per dollar to cater to demand for invisible transactions, reflecting ongoing efforts to stabilize the FX market.
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