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Oil prices shaky ahead of OPEC + meetings

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By Lukman Otunuga, Senior Research Analyst at FXTM,

A sense of uncertainty over whether Russia will commit to OPEC’s proposal for deeper production cuts is weighing on Oil prices this morning.

OPEC ministers agreed that Oil production should be cut by 1.5 million barrels per day (bbl/d), with OPEC members cutting one million bbl/d and non-OPEC allies, led by Russia, cutting half a million bbl/d. However, Russia has yet to make a decision, which could make things very interesting when crunch talks with non-OPEC members kick-off later today.

If negotiations run smoothly and conclude with both sides committing to deeper cuts, this could support Oil prices in the short term. However, the medium to longer term outlook will remain heavily influenced by coronavirus fears and the negative impacts it will have on fuel demand.

Another theme throwing a proverbial wrench in the works for OPEC is US Shale. Oil production in the United States has reached a record high of 13.1 million bbl/d as of last week, which is nearly half of the 27.8 million bbl/d produced by OPEC members last month.

The combination of stuttering demand and rising Shale production will most likely spell more trouble for Oil which has weakened over 25% since the start of 2020.

Markets continues to be gripped by Coronavirus fears

Explosive levels of market volatility are becoming the new normal, as conflicting themes force the sentiment pendulum to swing between extremes.

This phenomenon has been witnessed throughout the trading week, as coronavirus fears clashed constantly with hopes for new global monetary and fiscal measures. Risk aversion made an unwelcome return on Friday, as Asian shares fell deep into the red, tracking steep losses from Wall Street overnight. Disruptions to global businesses from the coronavirus outbreak are becoming more apparent, and this is fuelling fears of a virus-driven global economic slowdown. The negative mood is likely to hit European markets as investors avoid riskier assets in favour of safe-haven instruments like the Japanese Yen and Gold.

Will February’s US jobs report rescue the Dollar?

The Greenback is struggling to nurse deep wounds inflicted by the Federal Reserve’s emergency 50 basis point rate cut on Tuesday.

Mounting expectations over the world’s most powerful central bank cutting interest rates again at its March 17-18 meeting has added insult to injury, and this continues to be reflected in the Dollar’s poor performance this week.  Friday’s potential market shaker will be the monthly US jobs report for February, which should offer crucial insights into the health of the US labour market and whether the coronavirus is having an impact. The US economy is projected to have created 175k jobs in February with average earnings up by 0.3%, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.6%.

Given how the CME’s FedWatch tool currently shows a 100% probability of a US interest rate cut at the meeting later this month, a question on the mind of many investors is whether a blockbuster jobs report will sway the Fed from pulling the trigger.

Focusing on the technical picture, the Dollar Index is under pressure on the daily charts, with a breakdown below 96.50 opening the door to 95.90.

Gold bulls are back in town

Gold has gained over 5% this week thanks to coronavirus fears, speculation around central bank easing, global growth concerns and a weakening Dollar.

The general uncertainty and current risk aversion should support the precious metal due to its safe-haven nature. Going forward, with the Dollar set to weaken on Fed rate cut bets, prices could re-test $1700 if $1681 is breached.

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Afreximbank and Ecobank Join Forces to Boost Trade and Compliance Across Africa

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African Export-Import Bank and Ecobank Group have embarked on a collaboration aimed at simplifying trade and compliance for businesses in Africa by integrating Ecobank’s Single Market Trade Hub and Afreximbank’s MANSA Digital Repository Platform.

With the collaboration, African businesses will benefit from seamless shared services across the two platforms, with users of the Single Market Trade Hub able to easily leverage MANSA’s comprehensive database for efficient know-thy-customer (KYC) and customer due diligence (CDD) checks while MANSA platform users would, in turn, be able to directly connect to the Single Market Trade Hub to explore trade opportunities to expand their businesses across Africa.

The Ecobank Single Market Trade Hub connects registered businesses across Africa on a single platform, helping them benefit from opportunities in the unified market of 1.4 billion people created by the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA).

It serves as a one-stop repository for the AfCFTA by providing small and medium-scale enterprises (SMEs) and corporates with insights about the agreement while its online match-making feature enables importers and exporters to upload their profiles and showcase goods and services they offer, or wish to source, with the aim of finding partners within Africa.

Once a match is found, connections are made via the platform and the transaction can be concluded leveraging on Ecobank’s trade and payment solutions in 35 African markets.

The MANSA Digital Repository Platform, or MANSA, is a one-stop-shop for due diligence matters on all African entities. As a centralised digital repository, MANSA seeks to eliminate information asymmetry and to increase intra-African trade and trade with the rest of the world.

It drives and promotes good governance culture among African SMEs and creates visibility for their businesses while also supporting African entities to expand, diversify and add value to their export products at both the local and international levels. Entities onboarded unto MANSA are allotted an Africa Entity Identifier (AEI) code which enables them to leverage other Afreximbank products and initiatives.

MANSA is also a key digital solution at the Africa Trade Gateway (ATG) marketplace which houses a suite of digital platforms designed as a single window to enable Afreximbank better deliver on its mandate, providing critical services to support and promote intra-African trade and the implementation of the AfCFTA. The platform enables African entities to accelerate their business activities at the ATG marketplace by working with verified information on trusted counterparties.

The new collaboration is, therefore, enabling Ecobank and Afreximbank to provide a central solution to the key challenge of KYC compliance and access to business across 35 countries in Africa. The improved interoperability is expected to further streamline cross-border trade and compliance in Africa, fostering greater financial and economic integration on the continent.

Afreximbank is a pan-African multilateral financial institution established to finance and promote intra- and extra-African trade.

Ecobank Group is a leading private pan-African banking group with unrivalled African expertise.


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Leadway Assurance Pledges Transformative Role to SMEs

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Leadway Assurance said it has chosen to go beyond risk underwriting to play the role of transformative partner for Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) in the country.

The underwriting firm played this role by empowering SMEs with practical strategies on how to navigate risks inherent in Yuletide season.

Leadway recently organized a webinar session for SMEs titled, “Driving Increased Sales During the Festive Season.”

Speaking on the reason for the session, the underwriting firm said it realized that as momentum into the 2024 festive season continued, businesses, especially small and medium enterprises (SMEs), face paradoxical realities of increased sales opportunities and consequent cocktails of business risks.

It said recognising the fact that with consumer spending and holiday making increasing businesses for SMEs, there were the possibilities of risk from these spikes in commercial activities such as – theft, accidents, burglaries, fire outbreaks, frauds, and system failures.

Against this backdrop Leadway said it has reaffirmed its position as a transformative partner to SMEs by empowering businesses with practical strategies for navigating the complexities of the season.

“This aligns with the brand’s mission to deliver robust risk management and business solutions to bolster economic growth, Head of the Retail Division at Leadway, Umashime Oguzor-Doghro said.

As connected to insurance, Oguzor-Doghro said: “Insurance was often seen as a reactive tool, but at Leadway, we position it as a strategic asset. With our competitive risk management solutions—spanning property, transit, and employee coverage, we enable businesses to operate with confidence, knowing they are protected from the unforeseen.

What sets us apart is our free advisory service, which ensures businesses are fully equipped before they even take up our insurance products.” he added.

In addition to risk management, Oguzor- Doghro said the webinar championed collaboration as a catalyst for success, adding that Leadway’s partnerships with event managers and SME stakeholders aim to ensure seamless operations during the festive season, reinforcing the company’s role as more than just an insurer but a reliable business ally.


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Mastercard, MTN, and Arifu Launch Digital Skills Program for African Small Businesses

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Mastercard Center for Inclusive Growth, MTN Group Fintech and Arifu have partnered to support about one million small businesses in Cote’ D’Ivoire and Uganda, to digitize their operations, increase the use of digital financial services and access digital marketplaces through the MoMo Coach chatbot.

This program, part of the Center’s global Mastercard Strive initiative, aims to enhance the resilience and growth of small businesses by providing essential digital skills. It is one of the ways Mastercard Strive has disseminated chatbot-ready business building content for small businesses in the region, which is currently also available in Kenya and Nigeria.

Small businesses in sub-Saharan Africa, especially those impacted by the pandemic, have faced significant barriers in adopting digital tools. As of December 2022, only 27.65% of businesses in sub-Saharan Africa had adopted digital tools to enhance their efficiency, showing a slight improvement from 19.44% in August 2020. A lack of relevant skills continues to limit their growth and access to essential financial services. MoMo Coach addresses these gaps by providing free, accessible upskilling content via popular messaging platforms.

Supported by the Mastercard Center for Inclusive Growth and delivered by Caribou Digital, this program equips small businesses with digital skills, enabling them to adopt digital tools, access capital, and engage more effectively in digital marketplaces. The program aligns with Mastercard Strive’s broader goal of reaching 18 million small businesses around the world to go digital, get capital, and access networks and know-how.

“Small businesses are vital to Africa’s growth and create opportunities for a more resilient and inclusive regional economy. We are delighted to catalyze a partnership between MTN Group Fintech and Arifu to equip almost one million small business owners with the digital skills and knowledge essential for thriving in an increasingly digital economy, setting them up for success.” said Subhashini Chandran, Senior Vice President of Social Impact for Asia Pacific, Europe, Middle East and Africa

The MoMo Coach solution, powered by Arifu’s Grasp Platform, uses mobile messaging to deliver micro-learning experiences. It is accessible across multiple channels, including WhatsApp, Telegram, Facebook Messenger, SMS and MoMo. This gives small business owners and entrepreneurs flexibility in accessing practical, actionable tips to unlock growth opportunities in the digital economy.

Serigne Dioum, CEO of MTN Group Fintech, further adds: “Empowering small businesses with digital skills is key to driving inclusive growth in Africa. Through MoMo Coach, we are unlocking opportunities for entrepreneurs to thrive in the digital economy, strengthening communities, and shaping the future of business across the continent.”

The program has been rolled out in Côte d’Ivoire and Uganda, reaching over 930,000 MTN customers, merchants, and agents, with more than 75,000 small business owners accessing free digital courses and over 45,000 actively engaging with MoMo Coach. Courses offered include “How to Start Your Business,” “Money Management,” and “Grow and Secure Your Business.” These courses are based on insights derived from MoMo merchants and agents, and they address key challenges like affordability and access to relevant business knowledge—enabling small business owners to navigate the digital landscape.

Aminata, a 31-year-old business owner from Gôh-Djiboua, Côte d’Ivoire, is one of the many beneficiaries of MoMo Coach. Selling shoes and clothing since 2022, she says: “There’s a lot of competition, but MoMo Coach helps me sell better. Before, I used all my profits to buy new stock, which left me using my capital for expenses. Now, I split my profits: one part for business growth, another for expenses, and some savings for other projects.” She has also started using WhatsApp to increase her sales, noting: “My income has increased. When I post my goods, I sell more.”


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