E-Financial
Nigeria Under Spotlight as Oil Tumbles to 17 Year Low
![](https://www.nigeriacommunicationsweek.com.ng/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Buhari-1.jpg)
By Lukman Otunuga, Senior Research Analyst at FXTM
Fears over Nigeria descending into a recession have intensified after US crude tested levels below $20 for the first time in more than 17 years.
The last few months have certainly not been kind to Oil which has depreciated over 65% since the start of 2020. With Oil expected to trend lower amid widespread lockdowns across the world and aggressive price war between OPEC & US Shale, this is nothing but bad news for emerging market energy producers like Nigeria. Given how over 90% of export earnings and more than 60% of government revenues are acquired from Oil sales, this nightmare development threatens to sabotage Nigeria’s fragile economic recovery. The negative impacts can already be seen on the Naira, 2020 budget and local stocks.
It does not end here. According to the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE). Foreign portfolio transactions now stand at a ratio of 73% outflows and 27% inflows. This suggests that international investors are somewhat hesitant to purchase Nigerian assets amid the unfavourable global and domestic conditions. The Central Bank of Nigeria has already depreciated the rate of FX sales to FPI’s to roughly N380 which could rekindle the interest of foreign portfolio investors in the country’s financial instrument. However, aggressive monetary policy and fiscal responses must be implemented to cushion the damage inflicted by the coronavirus outbreak which infected over 100 people in Nigeria. Such steps could stimulate appetite for foreign portfolio investments, however external developments will play a key role.
At this point, it will be difficult for Africa’s largest economy to mirror the GDP growth witnessed in 2019 with first-quarter GDP expected to paint a gloomy picture. The main risk event for the economy this week will be the Foreign Exchange Reserves data for March. Earlier in the year, CBN Governor Godwin Emefiele mentioned that if external reserves tumbled to between $30 billion and $25 billion, and oil price depreciated between $50 – $45, the CBN could consider floating the exchange rate and weakening the naira. This may become a reality sooner than initially anticipated.
E-Financial
African Union Launches Credit Rating Agency to Promote Regional Economic Integration
![](https://www.nigeriacommunicationsweek.com.ng/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/African-Credit-Rating-Agency-image.png)
The African Union has taken a significant step towards promoting economic resilience in Africa with the launch of the African Credit Rating Agency (AfCRA).
The new agency aims to provide a fair, transparent, and unbiased credit rating system, addressing the biases of global rating firms that have reportedly cost Africa over $75 billion in investment opportunities.
According to Kenya’s President, William Ruto, who unveiled the agency at an AU event in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia on Friday, “Global credit rating agencies have not only dealt us a bad hand, they have also deliberately failed Africa.”
Ruto criticized the flawed models, outdated assumptions, and systemic bias used by global rating agencies, which paint an unfair picture of African economies and lead to distorted ratings, exaggerated risks, and unjustifiably high borrowing costs.
The launch of AfCRA is a response to the long-standing grievances of African countries regarding their treatment by international credit rating firms.
The agency aims to provide fair, transparent, and development-focused credit ratings that reflect the realities and potential of African economies.
Improving Africa’s rating by one notch could unlock $15.5 billion in additional funding for the continent, according to Ruto.
The idea of creating an African credit rating agency has been in the pipeline for years, with the AU officially announcing its plans to move forward with the project in September 2023.
The push for an African credit rating agency gained momentum in 2022 when Senegal’s former president Macky Sall called for a new system to “end the injustices” faced by African countries.
The African Credit Rating Agency is part of Africa’s continuous march towards economic resilience, which also includes the recent establishment of the African Energy Bank, headquartered in Nigeria.
The bank aims to provide support to unleash Africa’s energy potential and bring an end to energy poverty on the continent.
E-Financial
Nigeria Worst Hit by Crypto Currency Fraud
![](https://www.nigeriacommunicationsweek.com.ng/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/cryptocurrency_fraud.jpg)
Fraud in the crypto industry in African continent has soared by 48 percent over the past year and Nigeria is worst hit according to report by CAJ News.
This is according to the Sumsub State of the Crypto Industry 2025 report, which indicates Nigeria recorded the highest rate of fraud across the sector, at 8,3 percent.
Thus, this percentage of verification attempts were flagged as fraudulent.
Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania all have fraud rates of 4,8 percent, with Cameroon (4,5 percent), Ethiopia (3,7 percent), Ghana (3,5 percent), Algeria (2,6 percent), Benin (2,6 percent) and Morocco (2,1 percent) recording significant rates.
The most popular fraud types are document forgery (affecting 31 percent of surveyed companies), phishing (20 percent) and money mulling (15 percent), followed by account takeover (14 percent) and forced verification (12percent).
Simsub, the cyber crime expert, believes this surge highlights the need for companies to adopt artificial intelligence (AI)-powered detection, biometrics and continuous monitoring to enhance security.
The report states that innovations like biometric checks, AI-backed automation and document-free verification have boosted crypto platform users’ on-boarding success rates to 93,39 percent and reduced verification time by 46 percent, overall improving customer on-boarding while reducing drop-off cases.
Hannes Bezuidenhout, Vice President of Business Development (Africa) at Sumsub, said Africa’s growing adoption of crypto provided its own challenges, but the company foresaw increasing demand and growing user expectations across the continent.
“So it’s crucial for VASPs operating in the region to implement secure verification systems and stay vigilant to fraud, while keeping an eye on evolving and new regulations concerning the crypto sector to avoid fines.”
VASP is an acronym for virtual asset service provider.
E-Financial
Banking Consolidation Less Likely as Nigerian Banks Meet Capital Requirements – Fitch
![](https://www.nigeriacommunicationsweek.com.ng/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/Fitch-Rating-logo.png)
Fitch Ratings has said that Nigerian banks are making significant progress in raising core capital to meet new paid-in capital requirements. The rating agency noted that the banks are generally on track to meet the end-of-first quarter (Q1) 2026 deadline.
This is supporting a recovery in capitalisation from the impact of naira devaluation, providing fuel for business growth. It also reduces the likelihood of significant banking sector consolidation.
In March 2024, the Central Bank of Nigeria announced a significant increase in paid-in capital requirements (share capital plus share premium) for commercial, merchant and non-interest banks.
Banks have three ways to comply – through equity injections, M&A and downgrading their licence authorisation.
Fitch-rated banks have made notable progress towards compliance. Almost all have raised capital or formally launched the process to do so.
The two largest banks, Access Holdings and Zenith Bank, are the first to secure enough fresh capital to meet the N500 billion requirement for an international licence. First HoldCo, United Bank for Africa and Guaranty Trust Holding Company are taking a phased approach.
They have recently raised capital and have shareholder approval to begin raising more to meet the N500 billion requirement. First HoldCo’s and United Bank for Africa’s recent rights issues are awaiting final regulatory approval.
Fidelity Bank and FCMB Group have completed initial capital raisings but will need to raise more to maintain their international licences. As second-tier banks, they must raise significantly more capital relative to their balance sheets than larger banks.
They have extraordinary general meeting approval for this, although they could consider downgrading to a national licence as they each have just one foreign subsidiary.
Ecobank Nigeria Limited (ENG) and Jaiz Bank needed only small capital injections to meet their requirements and have already achieved compliance. We estimate that ENG is still in breach of its total capital adequacy ratio (CAR) requirement of 10 percent but it has further capital-raising plans to restore compliance. Stanbic IBTC Holdings has launched a rights issue to raise capital to maintain its national licence.
Strong investor appetite has ensured that the vast majority of capital raisings so far have been successful, and most first- and second-tier banks should be able to meet their new capital requirements through capital raisings alone. Therefore, we believe the likelihood of banking sector consolidation among first- and second-tier banks has decreased.
Union Bank of Nigeria (UBN), which is also in breach of its 10 percent CAR requirement, and third-tier banks have generally been slower to raise capital. Wema Bank has shareholder approval to raise enough capital to retain its national licence and plans to launch the process in April.
Coronation Merchant Bank recently received board approval. It is not clear whether UBN and unrated third-tier banks have received the necessary approvals. M&A activity and licence downgrades remain more likely among third-tier banks.
The capital raisings are contributing to a recovery in capitalisation from the impact of naira devaluation, which put pressure on capital ratios and increased US dollar credit concentration risks. Strengthened buffers over minimum CAR requirements will mitigate risks from a challenging operating environment, including regulatory intervention and further naira volatility, while providing room for business growth.
The capital raisings are unlikely to lead to banks with Long-Term Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) of ‘B-’ being upgraded given the constraint of Nigeria’s ‘B-’/Positive Long-Term IDR.
However, they could contribute to Outlook revisions to Positive for some banks, and, providing CAR compliance is restored, to upgrades for UBN and ENG (both rated ‘CCC’). Capital raisings are more likely to affect National Long-Term Ratings, which measure the relative creditworthiness of Nigerian issuers.
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