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Nigeria and Oil: Looking Beyond Price Collapse Towards Post Recovery Savings (Part 1)

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Austin Okere
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By Austin Okere

On April 20, 2020 the screaming headlines on CNN was that the price of WTI crude oil had fallen by 306% to $-37.63 per barrel, the first time on record that oil price has hit negative territory. It is surreal how things come around.

I wrote this article on April 20, 2016 after the colossal collapse in Oil prices – and surprised how relevant it is even today.

What was our experience as a country, what did we learn from it and how is it that we have once again been caught desperately unawares?

Below is the first part of the article.

The recurrent mistake we keep making as a Nation is failing to anticipate and plan for our oil windfalls. There have been many boom opportunities since Nigeria joined the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in 1971; Oil prices increased by 400% in six short months after the Yom Kippur War following the Arab Oil Embargo. Crude prices doubled from $14 in 1978 to $35 per barrel in 1981 following the Iran/Iraq war.

The price of crude oil spiked in 1990 with the uncertainties associated the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait and the ensuring Gulf War – the so called ‘Gulf War windfall’ under then Head of State Ibrahim Babangida. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration shows that the latest windfall happened between February 2011 and August 2014, under the Goodluck Jonathan presidency, when oil prices were much in excess of $100 per barrel.

Another golden opportunity was squandered, characterised by organised kleptocracy of epic proportions as has now come to light.

During this same period Saudi Arabia has amassed a whopping $593b in foreign exchange reserves and has recently announced that it is creating a $2 trillion mega-sovereign wealth fund, funded by sales of current petroleum industry assets, to prepare itself for an age when oil no longer dominates the global economy.

Coming closer home, Algeria, the second biggest African oil producer, with 1.9mbpd has accumulated foreign reserves of $156b and a sovereign wealth fund of $50b. Nigeria, by far the biggest producer in Africa with 2.5mbpd has only managed foreign reserves of $28b and a sovereign wealth fund of a paltry $2.9b – about 5% that of Algeria.

The major difference being that while the Algerians saved for a rainy day during the boom years, Nigeria was busy squandering her wealth, with nothing to show by way of infrastructure or any solid investments.

Yet Nigeria was able to balance her budget, pay off her debts and save over $62b in foreign reserves during the Obasanjo presidency from 1999 to 2007, even though the price of crude was mostly under $40 per barrel, except for the two years between 2005 and 2007 when it hovered between $50 and $75 dollars per barrel.

It is bothersome that with the same level of oil price, Nigeria today is struggling to balance her budget and has resorted to aggressive borrowing to finance the deficit, inadvertently driving us back to where we were before escaping from the huge burden of sovereign debt and the attendant debilitating impact of debt servicing.

I believe that Nigeria can save as much as $36.5b in the coming year if oil prices recover towards the end of 2016 and through 2017 to the projected $80 per barrel. This assumes we have all agreed that the current crises is much too painful and too precious to waste.

It can actually be a blessing in disguise, affording us the much needed leverage to deliberately diversify our economy away from the over dependence on oil, and attempt to become self-sufficient in every low hanging opportunity such as feeding ourselves.

There is a reason why the Chinese use the same word for challenge and opportunity; behind every challenge is an opportunity. We must seize this golden opportunity with both hands and make the structural changes that will lead us to true prosperity as a nation.

Almost every third Nigerian businessman you come across claims to be into Oil and Gas; usually, briefcase contractors who manage to have their ‘papers’ stamped, and proceed to collect money from the treasury of our commonwealth. Yet oil contributed only 6.4% to GDP growth in 2015.

An often overlooked area for rapid economic growth is telecoms, entertainment and media. At a recent event in Lagos, Dr. Doyin Salami, lecturer at Lagos Business School, remarked that ‘The telecommunication sector grew Nigeria’s GDP by 8.7% in 2015, generating spill overs, with uptakes in financial transactions technology and payment systems, e-commerce facilitation and proliferation of transport services, while making the offering of the burgeoning entertainment industry ubiquitous’.

Quite simply, if each of the 34 million MSME’s in Nigeria could be supported with technology to improve their businesses through online presence and seamless bookkeeping to the point of employing one more staff, they would create an additional 34 million jobs, much more than the government can ever provide.

I totally agree with Dr. Salami that Nigeria’s economy has systematically and strategically diversified along the lines of technology and other services sector without Nigerians noticing.  The services sector today contributes as much as 52% of Nigeria’s GDP.

Agriculture is also another sector that could do with special attention. If we strive to produce what we eat, we will not only be saving a whopping $6b from our import bill, but also provide the opportunity for inclusive growth, with the spill over effects down the value chain, from logistics and transportation to light manufacturing. But we need to make the right investments in infrastructure such as roads and rail transport linking farms with their food processors and markets.

The change that will make all this happen is not the ‘outsourced variety’ where we believe that we can carry on with business as usual, or sit back and fold our arms while only the President delivers the promised change. All hands must be on deck, and we each have to be the change we desire.

The elephant in the room question is; who says oil prices will reach $80 per barrel?

Austin Okere is the Founder of CWG Plc, the largest ICT Company on the Nigerian Stock Exchange & Entrepreneur in Residence at CBS, New York. Austin also serves on the Advisory Board of the Global Business School Network, and on the World Economic Forum Global Agenda Council on Innovation and Intrapreneurship. Austin now runs the Ausso Leadership Academy focused on Business and Entrepreneurial Mentorship.


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E-Business

Mobile App Usage to Drop By 25 Percent on AI Assistants- Study

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By 2027 mobile app usage will decrease by 25 per cent due to AI assistants, according to Gartner, Inc. Smartphone users will turn to AI assistants, such as Apple Intelligence, ChatGPT, Google Gemini, Meta AI, and others to replace apps for many functions.

Mobile App Usage to Drop By 25 Percent on AI Assistants- Study

In addition to the impact of AI assistants, apps will be consolidated across separate brands and companies, creating mobile app partnerships or consortiums to reach more users per app at scale and defray the cost of creation and maintenance.

“CMOs should begin scenario planning for the impacts of decreased mobile app usage,” said Emily Weiss, senior principal for the Gartner Marketing Practice.

“Brands with low app engagement and retention will likely be first impacted – this will be a positive development for brands that are not overly reliant on driving revenue via apps as app development costs will decrease.

Other brands may be severely impacted by the disintermediation of users turning to AI assistants for services.

The loss of app users will also result in the loss of first-party data collection and the ability to reach fewer users via mobile push notifications,” she added.

By 2026, over 1/3 of web content will be created for the purposes of Gen-AI powered search.

According to Gartner’s 2024 CMO Spend Survey of 395 respondents between February and March 2024, the average CMO allocated almost a quarter of their digital marketing budget to search.

Other than end users directly visiting a website, search currently drives more traffic to the average commercial enterprise website than any other referral source.

Given this, a loss of search driven traffic due to algorithmic shifts by major search engines would result in tangible, negative commercial impact to any organisation.

“CMOs will need to direct their teams to hire talent with a strong understanding of how GenAI, and broader AI influences, impacts the performance of their content in search algorithms,” said Weiss.

“It will be important to upskill the function by investing in search and content talent with AI skillsets. These associates will need to have familiarity with creating or optimising content to train and rank within evolving search algorithms,” Weiss added.

By 2028 digital marketers will move 30 per cent of their paid social budget to support advertising and partnerships on subscription-based channels.

It is becoming more challenging for CMOs to maintain, let alone grow, their reach and engagement among consumers.

This is especially true as consumers shift their tech and media behaviors away from social media, to other platforms and subscription based channels.

Gartner’s 2024 CMO Spend survey found that since 2022, paid social has maintained the highest budget allocation for all digital media spend.

In 2024, B2C Marketing leaders reported allocating 14.3 per cent for their digital channel budget to social media advertising (an increase from 12.3% in 2023).

“Closed group communities and subscription channels offer a potential alternative for social media weary consumers and content creators who want to do more than feed the algorithm,” said Weiss.

“Brands can leverage closed-group subscription channels – such as Substack, Patreon, and Discord – and the professional creators on them to reach relevant target audiences who are already engaging with content they self-selected into consuming.”

By 2027, 85 per cent of customer data will be xollected from automated interactions or those led by AI agents. Current AI models, such as large language models (LLMs), lack the agency to autonomously execute tasks and adapt in complex environments.

However, as new levels of intelligence are added, new AI agents are poised to quickly become more capable and reliable as brands seek to address customer facing use cases.

“There will be more AI agents than people, so while current approaches require humans in the loop, this idea will quickly become antiquated.

“Marketers will need to determine when and how they can trust AI agents to act on behalf of the brand and customers across key areas,” said Weiss.

 

 


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NIMC Trains 388 Personnel to Boost NIN Enrolment

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National Identity Management Commission (NIMC) has kicked off a three-day training program for 388 personnel aimed at enhancing the National Identification Number (NIN) enrolment process across the country.

NIMC Trains 388 Personnel to Boost NIN Enrolment

The training, tagged “Refresher Training of Trainers on NIN Integration to the National Social Register: Technical and hands-on devices and field operations and procedures”, is in collaboration with the National Social Safety-Net Coordinating Office.

The training is also to equip personnel with the necessary skills to efficiently handle the complexities of enrolment processes

In her address at the event held in Port Harcourt on Monday, Abisoye Coker-Odusote, director-general and chief executive officer, NIMC, noted that the initiative aligns with the commission’s overarching goal of achieving secured and great success for the Renewed Hope social initiatives.

Represented by Adedapo Adedoyin, her technical advisor on ICT, the NIMC DG said the event is a pivotal initiative that marks a significant step forward in our mission to enhance and modernize the National Identification Number enrolment process across Nigeria.

She stated, “Today, I am pleased to announce the launch of a comprehensive training program aimed at refreshing the technical and operational skills of the National Social Safety-Net Coordinating Office State Operations Coordinating Unit and NIMC staff.

“This initiative focuses on practical and field-based exercises, ensuring that our teams are well-equipped to handle the complexities of enrolment processes with precision and efficiency.

“This initiative aligns with our overarching goal of achieving secured and great success for the Renewed Hope social initiatives. Through verified digital identification, we aim to improve the lives of Nigerians by providing them with access to essential services and opportunities that require a reliable and secure identity verification system”.

Coker-Odusote explained that the training program will be conducted in two batches, encompassing four states: Kwara, Nasarawa, Kano, and Rivers. A total of 388 attendees will participate in this initiative, including 225 NASSCO State Operations Coordinating Unit representatives, 35 NIMC facilitators, and 128 State support staff.

She added, “The sessions are meticulously designed to foster knowledge sharing and hands-on experience with NIMC’s enrolment device and software, ensuring that our personnel are adept at using these tools to their full potential.

“By empowering our teams with enhanced skills and practical experience, we are setting the stage for more efficient and accurate NIN enrolment processes across the nation”.

Coker-Odusote further said the training program “is a crucial step toward achieving the World Bank’s Identification for Development Initiative target of enrolling 180 million Nigerians with secure digital IDs.

“By bolstering our technical and operational capabilities, we are ensuring that NIMC is well-positioned to meet and exceed this target, thereby contributing to the global vision of inclusive and accessible digital identification for all”.

The NIMC boss8 called for collaboration between all stakeholders saying, “As we embark on this journey, I urge all participants to embrace this opportunity for growth and development.

“Together, we can build a robust and efficient National Identification System that will serve as the cornerstone for Nigeria’s social and economic progress.”

 


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Kaspersky Discovers New Scam Scheme Targeting Businesses on Social Media

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Kaspersky experts have uncovered a new phishing scam targeting businesses that promote their pages on Facebook. Scammers send emails allegedly on behalf of Meta for Business – Facebook’s platform for businesses – claiming the recipient’s page contains prohibited content.

The email suggests users provide explanations in order for their account and page to be unblocked. The goal of the attackers is likely to get access to users’ business accounts.

Kaspersky’s anonymised data shows that such emails started reaching users on 14 December 2024, with complaints coming from organisations all over the world, including the Middle East, Turkiye and Africa.

By examining the “From” field in the email it can be seen that the domain does not belong to Facebook. According to Kaspersky data the emails that this campaign used were sent from different domains.

The link in the email redirects users to Facebook Messenger. On Messenger, the account posing as Facebook’s support team appears legitimate, creating a false sense of trust.

There is an indication that this is a fan page, but it is easy to miss in a situation of high stress after being accused of spreading illegitimate content.

This scheme stands out for its sophistication. Unlike earlier scams that accused users of copyright violations and directed them to respond via email, this approach simulates internal communication on the Facebook platform itself.

“In 2025, we anticipate a rise in attacks leveraging social engineering and user trust in major platforms. Scams like this are becoming more sophisticated as attackers strive to mimic official services closely.

“Users must remain vigilant, verify the authenticity of messages, and avoid clicking on suspicious links. We strongly advise users not to engage with suspicious accounts and to activate additional security measures, such as two-factor authentication.

“If you receive such an email, report the incident to Facebook’s support team and update your passwords immediately if any information has been compromised,” comments Andrey Kovtun, Email Threats Protection Group Manager at Kaspersky.

 

 


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