E-Financial
What Does Sub-Zero Oil Mean for Nigeria’s Economic Outlook?
By Lukman Otunuga, Senior Research Analyst at FXTM,
April 20, 2020 will go down in the history books as the day when WTI crude futures expiring in May plunged more than 300 percent, falling as low as minus $40.32 per barrel amid COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns.
Utter chaos ensued after the US benchmark prices for crude Oil went sub-zero for the first time ever, driven down by the producer’s desperate attempt to pay buyers to take the commodity off their hands. This was due to fears that storage capacity could run out in May.
As Oil sank, tanker stocks soared, reflecting an intense increase in demand for crude storage space. It says a lot about the unprecedented nature of the coronavirus pandemic when we see that the fastest-growing demand trend in the Oil markets is for storage space.
Prices rose spasmodically after Iran launched its first military satellite, earning President Donald Trump’s ire. But this has not changed the fundamental themes weighing on Oil.
For Nigeria, these fundamental themes of collapsing demand and oversupply are big headwinds even if the country’s Oil is benchmarked against Brent Crude. The Nigerian state depends on Oil for 60 percent of its revenues and 90 percent of its foreign exchange. But with prices for several Oil benchmarks falling below zero, Nigeria is generating massive losses for every barrel it produces, meaning the economic outlook is growing more precarious.
It’s likely that foreign exchange reserves will stay on the firing line while the Naira remains exposed to downside shocks. A further weight on the currency and government revenues is that Nigeria spent four times as much moneysubsidising fuel versus building schools, health centres and science labs in 2019. Another inefficiency which may come back to haunt is the fact that Nigeria produces crude Oil which is sold to the US, China and Europe only to re-import natural gas at higher prices.
With the cost of producing Oil at around $15-$17 per barrel, the current volatility and weakness in Oil prices may fuel fears of a sovereign debt crisis. Nigeria’s total debt stands at around $84 billion with up to 80% of its bilateral debt owed to China. Already, Fitch Ratings has cut Nigeria’s Long-Term Foreign Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to B from B+.
Weakening outlook notwithstanding, Nigeria is making the same choice as most other world governments – to stop the spread of coronavirus. The plan is to raise as much as $6.9 billion from multilateral lenders to help fund efforts to stop the disease in its tracks.
This is the right choice, and could give the economy a better chance to recover more quickly after the pandemic ends.
Meanwhile, the short-term outlook for Oil prices remains grim due to demand destruction and slowing global growth after China experienced an economic contraction in Q1 on top of a lack of storage space.
Given that Oil sector weakness is set to remain a dominant theme in the short-to-near term, Nigeria must act fast and break away from the chains of Oil reliance to other sustainable sources of growth. Diversification is the lifesaving elixir to Nigeria’s ailments but the benefits will not happen overnight.
Digitalisation has become a hot trend in many countries as populations and governments seek to reduce human contact but increase human connection. In the same vein, the government’s ‘Change’ agenda has never been more important than it is now. Technology and innovation may be the focus of increased investment as other economic sectors come to a standstill under lockdowns.
To sum up the new reality, Nigeria has displayed resilience to external and domestic risks in the recent past but the coronavirus pandemic and collapsing Oil prices could present one of the biggest economic tests in its history. Will Nigeria be able to weather the storm, evolve and rise from the ashes like a phoenix or will Africa’s largest economy face the same fate as Venezuela and Zimbabwe?
My sincere hope is that the economy will adapt quickly, resulting in a faster-than-expected comeback.
The World Bank has approved a $500 million loan to Nigeria to support the country’s Community Action for Resilience and Economic Stimulus Programme.
According to information obtained from the bank’s website on Sunday, the approval, which took place on March 28, 2025, marks a significant step in addressing Nigeria’s economic challenges through expanded access to livelihood support, food security services, and grants for poor and vulnerable households and firms.
The project, officially titled the NIGERIA: Community Action (for) Resilience and Economic Stimulus Program, aims to provide essential support to households affected by economic downturns and to bolster community resilience.
It also seeks to improve food security and create economic opportunities for populations most affected by recent economic disruptions.
According to the World Bank, the program represents a significant step toward addressing systemic vulnerabilities in Nigeria’s economy.
By channeling resources directly to underserved communities, the project should alleviate the burden of rising living costs while fostering sustainable growth.
The $500 million loan is not the only financial commitment Nigeria anticipates this week as two additional funding packages are in the pipeline, awaiting final approval.
One of the loans is valued at $80 million and will focus on accelerating nutrition outcomes across the country.
The second, worth approximately $552 million, is designed to enhance access to quality basic education nationwide as both projects are scheduled for final clearance on March 31, 2025.
These loans are part of the World Bank’s broader strategy to support Nigeria’s development priorities, most especially in areas such as healthcare, education, and poverty alleviation, while the institution emphasized the importance of implementing these programs efficiently to ensure maximum impact.
While the loans aim to address urgent socio-economic needs, Nigeria’s rising debt profile has raised concerns among stakeholders. Under the President Bola Tinubu’s leadership, the country has received approvals for 11 World Bank projects totaling 7.45 billion in less than two years. However, data from the Debt Management Office (DMO) reveal that only 774.99 million (about 16% of the approved amount) had been disbursed as of July 31, 2024.
This slow pace of disbursement has sparked debates about the efficiency of project execution and fund utilization
Depositors of Heritage Bank (in-liquidation) with balances exceeding the insured sum of ₦5 million will be paid from the sale of physical assets and debt recovery efforts soon, the Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC) announced on Sunday.
With substantial progress recorded in asset realization, the first tranche of liquidation dividends will be paid to uninsured depositors in April 2025 on a pro-rata basis, in line with Section 72 of the NDIC Act 2023, which prioritizes claims.
The clarification follows concerns raised by depositors regarding the status of their uninsured funds.
A statement issued by Hawwau Gambo, acting head of Communication & Public Affairs, NDIC, reiterated the Corporation’s commitment to ensuring timely payments.
Following the revocation of Heritage Bank’s banking license by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) on June 3, 2024, the NDIC was appointed as the liquidator in accordance with Section 12(2) of the Banks and Other Financial Institutions Act (BOFIA) 2020 and Section 55(1 & 2) of the NDIC Act 2023.
In line with its statutory mandate, the Corporation immediately commenced the bank’s liquidation process, including the verification and payment of insured deposits.
Providing an update on the ₦5 million maximum payout per depositor, the NDIC noted significant progress while acknowledging some challenges affecting certain depositors, including issues related to Bank Verification Numbers (BVN), Post No Debit (PND) restrictions, and Know Your Customer (KYC) limitations.
“Significant progress has been made in reimbursing insured deposits up to the ₦5 million limit per depositor.
“However, depositors yet to receive payments are largely those without Bank Verification Numbers (BVN) or alternate accounts in other banks, which are required to process payments through the Nigeria Inter-Bank Settlement System (NIBSS). Others have Post No Debit (PND) restrictions on their accounts.
“Additionally, some accounts have KYC limitations, such as Tier 1 accounts that restrict maximum lodgment of funds, while others have name mismatches requiring resolution.
“Some depositors who have already been paid may also be unaware due to a lack of mobile transaction alerts on their alternate accounts where the NDIC deposited their insured funds.
“Therefore, depositors are advised to check their alternate bank accounts, as some payments may have been processed without their immediate awareness,” the statement read.
Regarding payments to uninsured depositors, the Corporation explained:
“While depositors with balances above ₦5 million have received their insured sums, the remaining amounts will be paid as liquidation dividends, in accordance with the Corporation’s statutory mandate.
“The NDIC has made substantial progress in selling the bank’s physical assets and recovering debts to ensure that depositors with balances above the insured limit receive their payments as soon as possible.
As a demonstration of this commitment, the Corporation began realizing physical assets and investments while aggressively recovering outstanding risk assets, alongside verifying and paying insured sums.
“To ensure transparency and compliance with legal requirements, the NDIC has widely advertised the asset disposal process on its official website, social media platforms, major national newspapers, and through radio and television announcements.”
The NDIC emphasized that its simultaneous approach of paying insured depositors while aggressively pursuing asset sales and debt recovery is designed to accelerate the liquidation process and ensure that all depositors receive their funds without unnecessary delays.
“With the significant progress recorded in asset realization, the Corporation will declare the first tranche of liquidation dividends in April 2025, to be paid to uninsured depositors on a pro-rata basis, in line with Section 72 of the NDIC Act 2023, which governs the priority of claims.”
For clarity, the referenced section states:
“Where an insured institution is unable to meet its obligations or suspends payment, or where its management and control have been taken over by the Central Bank of Nigeria following the revocation of its license, the assets of the insured institution shall be available to meet its deposit liabilities. Such deposit liabilities shall have priority over all other liabilities of the insured institution.”
Consequently, other claimants of the failed Heritage Bank, including creditors and shareholders, will only be considered for liquidation dividend payments after all depositors have been fully reimbursed, the NDIC added.
E-Financial
NDIC Fixes April as Time Uninsured Depositors of Heritage Bank will Receive Liquidation Dividends
Depositors of Heritage Bank (in-liquidation) with balances exceeding the insured sum of ₦5 million will be paid from the sale of physical assets and debt recovery efforts soon, the Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC) announced on Sunday.
With substantial progress recorded in asset realization, the first tranche of liquidation dividends will be paid to uninsured depositors in April 2025 on a pro-rata basis, in line with Section 72 of the NDIC Act 2023, which prioritizes claims.
The clarification follows concerns raised by depositors regarding the status of their uninsured funds.
A statement issued by the NDIC’s Acting Head of Communication & Public Affairs, Hawwau Gambo, reiterated the Corporation’s commitment to ensuring timely payments.
Following the revocation of Heritage Bank’s banking license by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) on June 3, 2024, the NDIC was appointed as the liquidator in accordance with Section 12(2) of the Banks and Other Financial Institutions Act (BOFIA) 2020 and Section 55(1 & 2) of the NDIC Act 2023.
In line with its statutory mandate, the Corporation immediately commenced the bank’s liquidation process, including the verification and payment of insured deposits.
Providing an update on the ₦5 million maximum payout per depositor, the NDIC noted significant progress while acknowledging some challenges affecting certain depositors, including issues related to Bank Verification Numbers (BVN), Post No Debit (PND) restrictions, and Know Your Customer (KYC) limitations.
“Significant progress has been made in reimbursing insured deposits up to the ₦5 million limit per depositor.
“However, depositors yet to receive payments are largely those without Bank Verification Numbers (BVN) or alternate accounts in other banks, which are required to process payments through the Nigeria Inter-Bank Settlement System (NIBSS). Others have Post No Debit (PND) restrictions on their accounts.
“Additionally, some accounts have KYC limitations, such as Tier 1 accounts that restrict maximum lodgment of funds, while others have name mismatches requiring resolution.
“Some depositors who have already been paid may also be unaware due to a lack of mobile transaction alerts on their alternate accounts where the NDIC deposited their insured funds.
“Therefore, depositors are advised to check their alternate bank accounts, as some payments may have been processed without their immediate awareness,” the statement read.
Regarding payments to uninsured depositors, the Corporation explained:
“While depositors with balances above ₦5 million have received their insured sums, the remaining amounts will be paid as liquidation dividends, in accordance with the Corporation’s statutory mandate.
“The NDIC has made substantial progress in selling the bank’s physical assets and recovering debts to ensure that depositors with balances above the insured limit receive their payments as soon as possible.
As a demonstration of this commitment, the Corporation began realizing physical assets and investments while aggressively recovering outstanding risk assets, alongside verifying and paying insured sums.
“To ensure transparency and compliance with legal requirements, the NDIC has widely advertised the asset disposal process on its official website, social media platforms, major national newspapers, and through radio and television announcements.”
The NDIC emphasized that its simultaneous approach of paying insured depositors while aggressively pursuing asset sales and debt recovery is designed to accelerate the liquidation process and ensure that all depositors receive their funds without unnecessary delays.
“With the significant progress recorded in asset realization, the Corporation will declare the first tranche of liquidation dividends in April 2025, to be paid to uninsured depositors on a pro-rata basis, in line with Section 72 of the NDIC Act 2023, which governs the priority of claims.”
For clarity, the referenced section states: “Where an insured institution is unable to meet its obligations or suspends payment, or where its management and control have been taken over by the Central Bank of Nigeria following the revocation of its license, the assets of the insured institution shall be available to meet its deposit liabilities. Such deposit liabilities shall have priority over all other liabilities of the insured institution.”
Consequently, other claimants of the failed Heritage Bank, including creditors and shareholders, will only be considered for liquidation dividend payments after all depositors have been fully reimbursed, the NDIC added.
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