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Risk Appetite Flickers to Life on Vaccine Hopes, Nigeria Inflation in Focus

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By Lukman Otunuga, Senior Research Analyst at FXTM,

 

Investors across the globe have been injected with a renewed dose of confidence towards risk as governments relax lockdown measures and first human trial results raise hopes for a coronavirus vaccine.

The mood across financial markets is quite encouraging and this positive vibe should support global stocks and emerging markets in the week ahead. However, questions should be raised over the return in risk sentiment given how US-China trade tensions have made an unwelcome return. Concerns remain elevated over slowing global growth despite countries easing lockdown measures while fears mount around a second wave of coronavirus infections.

In Nigeria, the All-Share Index (ASI) also rose by 0.29% to close at 23,941.75 points on Monday and could mirror similar gains on Tuesday amid the positive vibe. While global equity bulls may be in the driving seat for now, bears are lurking in the corner waiting for another opportunity to pounce.

Nigeria Inflation in focus but major risk event remains GDP report

Repeated signs of rising inflationary pressures in Nigeria have squashed hopes over the central bank of Nigeria (CBN) cutting interest rates to stimulate economic growth.

The annual inflation rate in Africa’s largest economy rose for the seventh straight month to 12.26% in March amid border closures and the new VAT tax rate. Given the Naira’s weakness over the past few weeks amid severely depressed oil prices, inflation is forecast to hit 12.9% in April. Such a figure may place the CBN in a tight spot, especially if first quarter GDP figures scheduled for release next week confirm that Nigeria experienced an economic contraction last quarter.

King Dollar to maintain grip on iron throne

The mighty Dollar should reign supreme this week despite the semblance of stability enveloping financial markets.

Although investors are clearly hopeful over economies re-opening after an extended lockdown period, global macroeconomic conditions remain depressing while renewed trade tensions are bound to hit sentiment. As risk aversion makes a return and market players rush towards safety, one of the first destinations is likely to be the Dollar.

Another day, same old story for Pound

The path ahead for the British Pound is filled with many obstacles and dead ends as fears over a no-deal Brexit return to the scene.

One can’t help but feel a familiar sense of déjà vu as the UK government prepares for its final round of talks scheduled in June to try and avert a no-deal Brexit outcome.  To rub salt into the wound, economic data from the United Kingdom remains discouraging with the number of people claiming unemployment benefits soaring to 2.097 million in April.

With the fundamentals not in favour of the Pound, it may be only a matter of time till the technical paint a similar picture. The GBPUSD is under pressure on the daily charts and may trend lower if prices break below 1.2200. Sustained weakness below this level could open the doors towards 1.2000.

 

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Euro eyes 1.10 but upside capped by fundamentals

Where the Euro concludes this week will be heavily influenced by the pending Purchasing Managers Index data scheduled for release over the coming days.

A disappointing set of economic data may put an end to the current rally with 1.1000 acting as a ceiling. Looking at the technical picture, the EURUSD remains a wide range on the daily charts with support at 1.0770 and resistance 1.1000. Expect the currency pair to find comfort within these levels until a decisive breakout is achieved.

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Commodity spotlight – Gold

Gold should remain in fashion despite stock markets rising and economies easing lockdown measures.

The precious metal remains supported by global growth fears, lower interest rates across the globe and fears around a second wave of coronavirus outbreak. Gold is trading at levels not seen in more than 7 years above $1430 and has gained over 14% year-to-date. A solid daily close above $1430 may pave the way back towards $1765 and $1770. Alternatively, sustained weakness below $1720 could open the doors back towards $1700.

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E-Financial

AfDB Group Mobilises Global Private Capital to Close Africa’s Financing Gap

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Building on the successful conclusion of the 17th replenishment of the African Development Fund (ADF-17), which mobilised $11 billion for Africa’s most vulnerable countries, the African Development Bank Group and the Government of the United Kingdom convened global investors and private sector leaders in London to accelerate a new phase of private capital mobilisation for Africa’s development.

The inaugural Africa Private Capital Mobilisation Day, held on 17 December at Lancaster House, brought together more than 150 senior decision-makers from private equity firms, sovereign wealth funds, pension funds, insurers, philanthropies, and development finance institutions and export credit agencies—marking a decisive shift from dialogue to execution.

The high-level event was hosted by the African Development Bank Group in partnership with UK government institutions, the Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office, UK Export Finance and British International Investment, reflecting a shared ambition to scale private capital flows into African economies.

Speaking at the opening, African Development Bank Group President Dr Sidi Ould Tah described the event as a natural continuation of the ADF-17 replenishment process and a decisive step toward addressing Africa’s estimated $402 billion annual development financing gap.

“We will build on recent engagements with development finance institutions, export credit agencies, pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, insurers, and philanthropic partners to advance concrete initiatives under our vision for a New African Financial Architecture,” said Dr Ould Tah.

The Africa Private Capital Mobilisation Day aligns with President Ould Tah’s Four Cardinal Points vision, which focuses on unlocking Africa’s capital potential, strengthening financial sovereignty, transforming demographic growth into a dividend, and delivering resilient infrastructure and value chains.

UK Minister for Development, Jenny Chapman said, “We are delighted that President Ould Tah decided to hold the first Private Capital Mobilisation Day here in London, recognising the critical role of the City of London in mobilising investment for Africa. The UK’s shifting role—from donor to investor—will support countries who want to grow their economies and ultimately ultimately exit the need for aid.”

The programme featured focused discussions on reshaping perceptions of risk in Africa, designing innovative financial platforms, and mobilising capital in fragile and frontier markets.

New analysis on the Global Emerging Markets Risk Database delivered by the Center for Global Development presented new evidence showing that long-term lending to African borrowers has historically been significantly less risky than commonly perceived.

Sector-focused discussions underscored the strategic role of healthcare and aviation in strengthening Africa’s economic resilience, productivity and integration. Participants were introduced to two flagship initiatives championed by the Bank Group and its partners:

– The Africa Medicines and Equipment Facility, developed in partnership with the Gates Foundation, will provide African countries with predictable, timely, and affordable financing to secure essential medicines and medical equipment.

– The Integrated Aviation Transformation Programme for Africa—supported by a dedicated blended-finance facility—aims to modernise and expand Africa’s aviation ecosystem—from airports and airlines to enabling services critical to trade, tourism, and regional integration.

In parallel, President Ould Tah convened a closed-door roundtable with senior executives from approximately 30 leading institutional investors to explore the launch of an Africa-focused Private Sector Innovation Lab. The proposed platform would serve as a dedicated space to co-create new financing instruments, partnership models, and risk-sharing solutions tailored to African markets.

The outcomes of the Africa Private Capital Mobilisation Day are captured in the London Communiqué, setting out clear commitments by the African Development Bank Group and its partners to scale private capital mobilisation for Africa.

Further work will go into setting out priority actions and implementation pathways to scale private capital mobilisation for Africa, turning ambition into scalable capital and risk mitigation solutions.


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FIRS says NIN, CAC Numbers to Serve as Tax IDs from 2026

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The Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) has announced that the National Identification Number (NIN) will automatically serve as the Tax Identification Number (TIN) for individual Nigerians beginning in 2026.

The clarification was issued on Monday through a public awareness campaign on the new tax laws shared by the Service on X.

According to the FIRS, registered businesses will also no longer need a separate Tax Identification Number, as their Corporate Affairs Commission (CAC) registration numbers will now function as their official tax identifiers under the revised tax framework.

The announcement follows public concerns over aspects of the new tax laws that require a Tax ID for certain transactions, including the operation and ownership of bank accounts.

Providing further explanation, the FIRS said the Nigeria Tax Administration Act (NTAA), scheduled to take effect in January 2026, mandates the use of a Tax ID for specified transactions. It, however, noted that the requirement is not entirely new, stressing that it has been in existence since the Finance Act of 2019 but has now been strengthened.

“The Tax ID unifies all Tax Identification Numbers previously issued by the FIRS and State Internal Revenue Services into a single identifier,” the Service said.

“For individuals, your NIN automatically serves as your Tax ID, while for registered companies, your CAC RC number is used. You do not need a physical card, as the Tax ID is a unique number linked directly to your identity.”

The FIRS explained that the new system is intended to simplify identification processes, eliminate duplication, close gaps that enable tax evasion, and promote fairness by ensuring that all individuals earning taxable income contribute accordingly.

The agency also urged Nigerians to ignore misinformation surrounding the reform, assuring the public that the new tax framework is designed to improve efficiency and transparency in tax administration.

Meanwhile, the Chairman of the Presidential Committee on Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms, Taiwo Oyedele, disclosed that banks will be required to request a TIN from all taxable Nigerians as part of the federal government’s new tax administration framework, which will take effect on January 1, 2026.


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Fidelity Bank Bolsters Ikoyi Fire Station with Hoses, Pumps for Safer Communities

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Fidelity Bank Plc has reinforced its commitment to community safety and sustainable ecological practices through the donation of essential firefighting and preventive equipment including hoses and gasoline water pumps to the Ikoyi Fire Service Station in Lagos.

Fidelity Bank Bolsters Ikoyi Fire Station with Hoses, Pumps for Safer Communities

L-R: Lagos State Controller, Federal Fire Service, CF (Controller of Fire), Adebayo Funke; Tolulope Rojaiye, Marketing Business Partner, Fidelity Bank Plc; Assistant Superintendent of Fire, Ishola Folorunsho Olufemi; and Station Commander, Onikan Fire Station, Lagos, Okeke Ferdinand; during the donation of firefighting equipment to the Federal Fire Service at Ikoyi, Lagos, recently.

The donation was made under the Fidelity Helping Hands Program (FHHP) by the True Serve team, reaffirming the Bank’s commitment to the environment and community safety. Through the FHHP, members of staff identify areas of critical community needs, raise funds, and then receive matching monetary support from the bank to execute the projects.

Commenting on the reason behind the donation, Divisional Head, Brand and Communications Division, Fidelity Bank Plc, Dr Meksley Nwagboh, emphasized that the donation reflects the bank’s dedication to strengthening emergency response capabilities and promoting public safety within the communities it serves.

According to him, “Fidelity Bank remains committed to supporting initiatives that contribute to the protection of our environment, lives and property. We see community safety as a shared responsibility and continuously extend support to both corporate bodies and individuals.”

Dr Nwagboh further noted that, “We believe that preventive measures are far more effective than reactionary responses. This donation is part of our efforts to drive sustainable practices by providing the necessary tools. Our goal is to ensure that people live meaningful, safe, and empowered lives.”

In her comments, Lagos State Controller, Federal Fire Service and Controller of Fire (CF), Funke Adebayo commended Fidelity Bank for the timely support, while cautioning residents to exercise heightened vigilance during the festive period, especially with the dry weather conditions.

“We appreciate Fidelity Bank for this timely donation. We are in a harsh weather period where fire incidents can escalate quickly. Parents must educate and caution children against the use of fireworks during celebrations. Fire should never be treated carelessly,” Adebayo said.

She noted that the Fire Service has embarked on sensitization visits to various corporate organizations, warning against unsafe practices that could lead to preventable fire outbreaks.

On his part, Area Commander, Onikan Fire Station and Chief Superintendent of Fire (CSF)Oswere Michael expressed appreciation to Fidelity Bank for supporting their operations. He encouraged families, business owners, and community members to prioritize fire safety at all times.

“Everyone has a role to play in preventing fire incidents at home and in the workplace. This support from Fidelity Bank will go a long way in enhancing our capacity to protect the community,” CSF Oswere added.

Ranked among the best banks in Nigeria, Fidelity Bank Plc is a full-fledged Commercial Deposit Money Bank serving over 9.1 million customers through digital banking channels, its 255 business offices in Nigeria and United Kingdom subsidiary, FidBank UK Limited.

The Bank is a recipient of multiple local and international Awards, including the 2024 Excellence in Digital Transformation & MSME Banking Award by BusinessDay Banks and Financial Institutions (BAFI) Awards; the 2024 Most Innovative Mobile Banking Application award for its Fidelity Mobile App by Global Business Outlook, and the 2024 Most Innovative Investment Banking Service Provider award by Global Brands Magazine. Additionally, the Bank was recognized as the Best Bank for SMEs in Nigeria by the Euromoney Awards for Excellence and as the Export Financing Bank of the Year by the BusinessDay Banks and Financial Institutions (BAFI) Awards.


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