General News
Bye-bye Frenzy, Back to the Familiar
By Han Tan, Market Analyst at FXTM
Global markets are now revisiting a familiar script, with investors pushing broad asset classes higher on more signs pointing to the US economic recovery.
Stock markets Stateside posted new record highs and the futures contracts are holding steady at the time of writing. The S&P 500 is boasting a year-to-date gain once more, led by energy and financial stocks this week. Tech companies remain favoured by investors amidst a string of better-than-expected earnings, pushing the Nasdaq 100 to its highest-ever close.
Oil prices are also getting in on the act, with WTI futures set for a fifth consecutive daily gain to reach its best levels in over a year. This return to the way things were is also marked by signs of subdued day-trader mania, with GameStop having plummeted almost 90 percent from its 2021 peak amid the WallStreetBets-fueled frenzy. However, the stock is still showing gains of 184 percent so far this year.
Stronger jobs recovery to set base for more gains in risk-asset
Risk sentiment has been buoyed by Thursday’s lower-than-expected US jobless claims data, which marked its third weekly decline and lowest reading since late November.
This positive surprise has already prompted economists to make upward revisions to their forecasts for the January non-farm payrolls data due later today. Markets are expecting the headline print to increase by around 105,000 jobs, which would be an about-turn from the 140,000 positions lost in December.
But, the unemployment rate is set to remain unchanged at 6.7 percent, which is still some three percentage points higher compared to pre-pandemic levels. This elevated figure still underscores the need for more government support, even though President Biden’s $1.9 trillion proposal risks being diluted if we see evidence today that the job market recovery is truly underway.
With more states easing their respective virus-curbing measures as the Covid-19 vaccine continues to make its way through the US population, the labour market may find itself on firmer ground in the weeks and months ahead. On top of that, economic conditions are expected to be restored at a faster clip once more fiscal stimulus is unleashed upon households and businesses.
Such a risk-on narrative is what’s prompting market participants to push risk assets higher and this momentum in the markets could gain more impetus with a better-than-expected NFP print.
Gold declines on Dollar resilience
However, the US dollar and gold are apparently not singing the same tune as the rest of the choir.
The greenback has defied consensus calls for weakness this year, which in turn has sent bullion to its lowest levels since early December. The precious metal has also struggled against the steepening US yield curve. The idea that the US economic recovery would lead to faster inflationary pressures has not played out in gold’s favour, to the chagrin of the precious metal’s bulls.
With spot prices now trying to claw their way back to the psychologically important $1800 level, gold is set to have a battle on its hands over the near-term in trying to get on the market’s good side. A technical death cross, when the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average, looks imminent which indicates the potential for a major selloff.
General News
Holiday shoppers spend a record $1.2T online, Salesforce data shows
Salesforce, the world’s #1 AI CRM, today revealed new data showing holiday retail sales surged to a record $1.2 trillion globally and $282 billion in the United States, but high returns could dampen overall profit margins.
The report indicates that the better-than-expected holiday shopping season was powered by surges in mobile and social commerce alongside increased consumer spending after months of saving in the first half of 2024.
However, shoppers have already sent back $122 billion in merchandise. Both consumers and retailers leaned into the use of AI and agents to enhance holiday shopping experiences through product recommendations and personalised order support, influencing $229 billion – or 19% – of all online orders.
“Retailers had a robust holiday season, but a 28% rise in the rate of returns compared to last year is a cause for some concern,” said Caila Schwartz, Director of Consumer Insights at Salesforce. “Retailers who have embraced AI and agents are already seeing the benefits, but these tools will be even more critical in the new year as retailers aim to minimise revenue losses on returns and reengage with shoppers.”
Salesforce data, based on an analysis of 1.5 billion shoppers and 1.6 trillion page views across the Salesforce Platform, highlights trends that shaped the holiday season, including:
Online sales and order growth reached new peaks:
Online sales reached $1.2 trillion globally and $282 billion in the U.S. This represents a 3% global year-over-year (YoY) increase and a 4% YoY increase in the U.S. Online sales also grew 1% YoY in the European Union (EU).
Retailers harnessed the value of AI and agents:
$229 billion of global online sales were influenced by AI and agents in the form of product recommendations, targeted offers, and conversational customer service support.
19% of holiday purchases were influenced by consumers engaging with AI and agents, a 6% increase from 2023.
Retail use of generative AI features like agents increased 25% during the holiday season compared to September and October in 2024.
Shoppers used AI- and agent-powered chat for customer service 42% more than they did during the 2023 holiday season.
The rate of returns rapidly increased:
More than $122 billion of global purchases have already been returned, up 28% from last year.
This increase is partially due to trending consumer behaviors like “try-on hauls” and bracketing (buying an extra size above and below your standard size).
Salesforce projects that retailers will likely see this number grow to $133 billion – presenting an important opportunity for brands to use agents to make the returns process easier and more tailored to specific customer needs.
Social commerce grew its influence on shoppers:
Retailers using social commerce strategies saw 20% of global holiday sales generated through platforms like TikTok Shop and Instagram.
Social media as a traffic-referring channel also grew 8% YoY, driving 14% of all traffic to ecommerce sites during the season.
General News
Lagos State Sets Strict Deadline for 2024 Tax Returns Filing
Lagos State Internal Revenue Service (LIRS) has issued a reminder to all employers in Lagos State to fulfill their statutory obligation to file annual tax returns for the 2024 financial year on or before January 31, 2025.
This requirement is in line with the Personal Income Tax Act (PITA) Cap P8 LFN 2004 (as amended).
In an official statement, Dr. Ayodele Subair, the executive chairman of LIRS, emphasized that meeting this deadline is a legal obligation.
He warned that failure to comply will result in statutory sanctions, including penalties, as prescribed by law.
Section 81 of PITA mandates employers to submit comprehensive annual returns detailing all emoluments paid to employees, including taxes deducted and remitted to relevant tax authorities.
These returns must be filed no later than January 31 each year and cover the income and taxes paid during the preceding year (2024).
Dr. Subair stressed, “Employers must prioritize the timely filing of their annual income tax returns to avoid penalties. Submitting returns on or before the deadline ensures compliance with the law and supports accurate revenue tracking, which is essential for Lagos State’s fiscal planning and sustainability.”
To simplify the process, LIRS has transitioned to a fully digital filing system. Employers must file their annual tax returns exclusively through the LIRS e-Tax portal.
Manual submissions are no longer accepted. Mr. Subair described the e-Tax platform as secure, user-friendly, and designed to provide employers with a convenient way to manage their tax obligations.
Employers are reminded to include the Payer ID of all employees in their returns. Employees without a Taxpayer ID are advised to generate one immediately on the e-Tax platform to prevent disruptions during the filing process.
To assist employers, LIRS has deployed staff across its offices to provide guidance on using the e-Tax portal and addressing related concerns.
Employers are encouraged to act promptly to meet the deadline and ensure compliance with tax laws.
General News
Nigeria Recovers $52.88m in Assets Linked to Former Petroleum Minister Diezani Alison-Madueke
Federal government has received $52.88m recovered Galactica assets linked to a former Minister of Petroleum Diezani Alison-Madueke from the USA.
The Attorney-General of the Federation and Minister of Justice Lateef Fagbemi disclosed this at the formal signing ceremony of the asset agreement between Nigeria and the United States of America in Abuja on Friday, January 10.
While speaking at the ceremony, Fagbemi explained that $50m of the recovered assets will be deployed through the World Bank to the development of the rural electrification project and the remaining $2m will be deployed to the International Institute of Justice to expand the Justice system and also counter corruption.
Speaking further, Fagbemi noted that the asset return marks a milestone in the ongoing collaboration between Nigeria and the United States in combating corruption and upholding the rule of law
He said the event is also a significant effort by President Bola Tinubu to address the issue of corruption.
Meanwhile, in his remarks, the United States Ambassador to Nigeria Richard Mills called for the monitoring and effectively utilizing the recovered assets by the Ministry of Justice to benefit Nigerians.
Diezani served as Minister under the Goodluck Jonathan administration.
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