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Austin’s Five Forces Model for Analysing Sustainable Development
By Austin Okere
The sustainability challenge is becoming clearer. Being a Consultant at the Sustainable Development Goals, Africa Centre (SDGCA) in Rwanda and on the Global Agenda Council of the World Economic Forum (WEF) has exposed me to the global framework for economic growth that protects the fundamental pillars of humanity and the planet.
The SDGs are about People, Planet, Prosperity and Peace – and about driving development in an inclusive way that leaves no one behind. These tenets were further reinforced through my interview with Professor Paul Romer, Nobel Laureate, and former Chief Economist at the World Bank.
I see Five Forces driving sustainable growth as follows – Organizations, Population, Enablers, Infrastructure, and the Socio-Political Environment. I have codified below, the relation between these forces in the in a model which I call the Austin’s Five Forces Model for analyzing Sustainable Development.
Below are the Five Forces and how they impact sustainability:
- Organisations – providing jobs for the population for shared prosperity
- Population – a large social group subject to the same political authority and dominant cultural expectations. This is the source of skilled labour to the organisation and who in turn contribute to the welfare of society
- Enablers – institutions and mechanisms necessary for supporting efficient and equitable pursuance of opportunities in the society. They may include regulation, education, healthcare, and technology among others
- Infrastructure – the basic physical and organizational structures and facilities needed for the operation of a society or enterprise. They include housing, ports, roads, power, and communication
- Social-Pollical Environment – the central values of society, politics, culture and public opinion, as well as the assurance of security and the adherence to rule of law that governs the society
ORGANISATIONS
At the heart of providing jobs is the organisation, public, private, start-ups and non-governmental.
A commonly held truism is that government alone cannot provide all jobs and is not big enough to shoulder the entire economy. Take Nigeria for example, in real terms, government spending at 5.7% of GDP (2019) means non-government economic activity accounts for almost all of GDP (about 95%). Among OECD economies, business activity accounts for 72 percent of GDP with monetary flows from labour income, capital income, taxes, investment in capital assets, and payments to suppliers. It is this crucial force that needs to be enabled to unleash economic growth.
In many economies, 80% of the jobs are provided by entrepreneurs. They are responsible for most of the advances in new products and processes, provide most of the employment opportunities and are a key indicator of the overall performance of an economy.
In Nigeria, while there are only about 161 companies listed on the Stock Exchange, the total number of MSMEs as of 2019 stood at 41.5m according to the National Bureau of statistics. Just imagine the scale of jobs that will be created if each of these businesses is empowered to employ just only one additional person.
POPULATION
A developing society is based on the ideal by which equality of opportunity is available to any member, allowing the highest aspirations and goals to be achieved. While society in the past was split between the haves and have nots, society today is split more into those who are included and those left behind.
This inequality is more significant in emerging markets, where 80% of the world reside. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the unemployment rate in Nigeria is 32.6%, while the youth unemployment rate (15-24 years) in 2020 was 58.3%.
Young people who cannot find jobs still need to eat. With few legitimate options, illegal means become attractive.
Research has shown that youth unemployment increases all sorts of crime. It is estimated that by 2050, Africa’s population will double, reaching 2.5b people – just about the current combined population of India and China. Without a credible plan towards sustainable employment, this could be a ticking bomb.
What is more worrisome is that while the population grew at a rate of 2.6%, the GDP growth rate was lower at 2.2% in 2019 according to the World Bank.
ENABLERS
Enablers are institutions and mechanisms which remove economic blockages and open economic arteries. Anything that enhances economic activity to a community will culminate in an economic driver for the society. Regulators are one of the most critical enablers of a society.
Regulators, however, tend to be either a source of support or a headwind against progress. The regulator should not constrict the pursuit of opportunity nor act in a manner to entrench protectionism.
While Nigeria has become one of the world’s fastest-growing technology markets, attracting investments of over $216m in the first quarter of 2021 alone, there is a palpable apprehension among technology start-ups, after a series of regulatory headwinds from different government bodies.
These include the Central bank of Nigeria’s ban on cryptocurrency trading and the Security and Exchanges Commission’s clampdown on technology platforms for purchasing shares in foreign companies outside the Commission’s regulatory purview and registration.
Until more people think they can successfully start businesses and prosper, we will not have enough jobs in the economy. Other significant enablers are health and education. On the supply side for jobs, the education system needs to be set up so that people leaving, either at the secondary or university level have employable skills.
The most significant enabler in modern times is the Technology Platform. These Platforms provide a means of significantly extending services at low-cost efficiencies, and as a result draw many people into the consumption pool, while also creating many jobs along the value chain which would otherwise simply not exist. Technology Platforms have heralded an era of unprecedented inclusiveness.
For instance, MPESA the popular payment system had more than 60% of Kenya’s 33 million mobile users and in 2015 transacted $28m on her platform. Similar applications have metamorphosed across Africa, and Mobile Money services are today generating 6.7% of Africa’s GDP.
Platforms have made it possible to reach far more than our traditional schools can cater to, by leveraging Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs). Research and Markets forecast that e-learning will grow to $325 Billion by 2025 from $107b in 2015.
The Covid-19 pandemic has severely tested many sovereign health systems, and many have been found significantly wanting.
INFRASTRUCTURE
Infrastructure speaks to facilities needed for the operation of a society, and includes power, ports, transportation, communication, housing, and not least, broadband to homes and offices. This has now become imperative due to the increase in digital transformation, largely driven by the Covid-19 pandemic. A lack of these will severely constrict the smooth production and delivery of goods and services.
By 2050, the infrastructure needed for the 2.5b Africans will be unprecedented in the history of humankind; 700m housing units, 300k schools, and 100k health centres. Can you imagine Africa without a significant network of rail or a functional underground transport system in 2050?
The UK’s Underground Tube system moves 1.35b people annually and has been operating for about 150 years. African Countries such as Ethiopia and Kenya are making strident advances in rail transportation.
The biggest infrastructure drawback, however, has been electricity. Almost half of the people living in Sub-Saharan Africa do not have access to electricity. The attendant impact on entrepreneurship can only be imagined. If Africa were able to achieve in power what she has achieved in telecoms the impact on sustainable development would be immense.
SOCIO-POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT
Nothing impacts sustainable growth as much as a stable socio-political environment. it enables the attraction of capital for rapid economic development. The rule of law is paramount for a stable polity. Any society that does not abide by some code of conduct whether in public or private matters tends to become chaotic, and virtually ungovernable.
The blind application of the law without regard to status, tribe or creed is what enshrines deterrence. It is the pursuit of deterrence that drives developed countries from sparing any high-ranking members of the society who fall foul of the law, not least their leaders, who are held to a higher account.
When we analyse the conduct of the people from rich and developed countries, we observed that a majority abide by the following principles of life: ethics, integrity, responsibility, the respect of most citizens for the rule of law, pride in their work, the effort to save and invest, and the will to be productive and punctual.
In poorer countries, a small minority follow these basic principles in their daily lives.
A society is not poor because they lack natural resources or because nature is cruel to them, but rather because they lack the right attitude. Conscience is usually thrown out, and justice is on sale to the highest bidder; this is what is known as a market society.
Russian American writer and philosopher, Ayn Rand succinctly sums it up as follows:
“When you see that in order to produce, you need to obtain permission from men who produce nothing – When you see that money is flowing to those who deal, not in goods, but in favours – When you see that men get richer by graft and by pull than by work, and your laws don’t protect you against them, but protect them against you – When you see corruption being rewarded and honesty becoming a self-sacrifice – You may know that your society is doomed.”
According to Yury Fedotov, Executive Director, United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime,
“Corruption represents a major threat to the rule of law and sustainable development the world over. It has a disproportionate, destructive impact on the poor and most vulnerable, but it is also quite simply bad for business.”
The sustainable development of any society depends on where they lie on the spectrum of these critical five forces.
Where does your society lie?
Credits to Professor Michael Porter for the term “Five Forces Model”
Austin Okere is the Founder of CWG Plc, the largest security in the technology sector of the Nigerian Stock Exchange, and Entrepreneur-in-Residence at CBS, New York.
As digital financial transactions continued to expand worldwide, cybercriminals shifted their focus toward mobile devices and crypto assets. According to Kaspersky’s new Financial Cyberthreats report, the number of users encountering mobile banking Trojans rose by 3.6 times compared to 2023, while crypto‑related phishing detections climbed by 83.4%.
Meanwhile, PC‑focused malware saw a decline in traditional banking attacks but a surge in crypto‑asset theft. This data comes from Kaspersky’s new Financial Cyberthreats report for 2024.
Financial phishing
In 2024, online fraudsters continued to lure users to phishing and scam pages that mimicked the websites of popular brands and financial organisations. Banks were the most popular lure in 2024, accounting for 42.6% of financial phishing attempts (compared to 38.5% in 2023).
Amazon Online Shopping was mimicked by 33.2% of all phishing and scam pages targeting online store users in 2024, making it the most popular online brand target for fraudsters.
Apple’s share of attacks dropped nearly 3 p.p. on last year’s figure to 15.7%, while Netflix scams grew slightly to 16%. Meanwhile, fraudsters’ interest in the Alibaba marketplace increased, its share going up from 3.2% in 2023 to 8% in 2024.
Payment systems were mimicked in 19.3% of financial phishing attacks detected and blocked by Kaspersky products in 2024 (19.9% in 2023). Once again PayPal was the most targeted brand, however, the ratio of attacks related to it fell from 54.7% to 37.5%.
Attacks targeting Mastercard, on the contrary, nearly doubled from 16.6% in 2023 to 30.5% in 2024. American Express and Cielo are the new entrants into the top five replacing Visa, Interac and PayPay.
In 2024, the number of phishing and scam attacks related to cryptocurrencies saw a whopping increase. Kaspersky antiphishing technologies prevented 10,706,340 attempts to follow a cryptocurrency-themed phishing link, an 83.4% increase over the 2023 figure of 5,838,499. As cryptocurrency popularity continues to grow, the number of attacks is only ever going to get larger.
Financial malware for PCs
While the number of users who encountered mobile banking malware increased, the share of those who were affected by financial PC malware decreased from 312,453 in 2023 to 199,204 in 2024.
Currently most financial PC malware that Kaspersky detects is targeting not online banking, but crypto assets. The banking Trojans that were most often detected in 2024 included ClipBanker (62.9%), Grandoreiro (17.1%), CliptoShuffler (9.5%) and BitStealer (1.3%). Grandoreiro is a full-fledged banking Trojan that targeted 1,700 banks and 276 crypto wallets in 45 countries and territories around the globe in 2024.
Mobile financial threats
In 2024, the number of users who encountered mobile banking Trojans grew 3.6 times compared to 2023: from 69,200 to 247,949, with malicious activity significantly increasing in the second half of 2024.
The most active Trojan-Banker family in 2024 was Mamont (36.7%). Its distribution schemes ranged from simple scams to complex social engineering plots with fake stores and delivery tracking apps.
“In 2024, financial phishing and scams increased in numbers and reached a new level of sophistication, unleashing waves of attacks on users. Fraudsters are increasingly leveraging fake brands and services to get user data, and the popularity of smartphones for financial transactions only fuels their appetite.
Looking ahead, we expect financial phishing to become even more personalised and targeted, focusing on exploiting vulnerabilities in everyday digital habits, which will demand increased vigilance and thorough approaches to protection,” comments Olga Svistunova, senior web content analyst at Kaspersky.
A recent survey by Kaspersky has showed that 43.5% of employees and business owners using computers in the Middle East, Turkiye and Africa (META) region faced a situation when colleagues (24%), friends or relatives (19%) made jokes with their unlocked computer.
These jokes included sending funny messages or emails on behalf of the accounts’ owner, placing a screenshot of the desktop as a desktop background, and leaving unexpected pictures, notes, or photos in the files. At the same time just less than 3% of the survey respondents admitted to making such jokes themselves.
Similar tricks are also used by cyber attackers. For example, a phishing website may open in a new window in full-screen mode, so that the original browser bar with the phishing URL becomes invisible.
Instead, the attackers replace it with an image of the browser bar with the official link of some well-known organisation. This image may display various messages (both visual and audio), such as warnings that the computer has been blocked and a fine must be paid.
If the user does not know how to exit full-screen mode in the browser, they may think their computer is really locked. To escape such a trap, users can press F11 or Alt+F4 on Windows, or Cmd+Ctrl+F on a Mac, to exit full-screen mode and regain control.
Short links and QR codes should always be treated with vigilance as they may lead to unpredicted downloads or websites, not only claiming to be an “April Fools” joke. QR code phishing, known as Quishing, has been a growing concern in recent years.
Since there are threat actors looking to benefit from people’s trust in a service, it’s worth checking such links by copying and pasting them into a tool like GetLinkInfo or UnshortenIt. Cybersecurity solutions help with a built-in QR scanner that lets users check the link and warns users about landing on a dangerous website.
Additionally, hovering over a short link (without clicking) can sometimes reveal the true destination URL in the browser’s status bar, offering a quick safety check.
“Of course, a friendly joke won’t lead to the loss of money or data, that is the case with cyber attacks but may still be very unpleasant. Following simple rules when working with a computer, tablet or phone will help to avoid unpleasant consequences.
Be vigilant, have strong passwords in place and keep your devices locked,” notes Brandon Muller, technology expert and consultant at Kaspersky.
Socio-Economic Rights and Accountability Project (SERAP) has urged Godswill Akpabio, Senate president, and Tajudeen Abbas, speaker of the House of Representatives, “to immediately withdraw the oppressive bill which contains repressive provisions to jail any Nigerian of voting age for six months and/or impose a fine of N100,000 on them if they fail to vote in national and state elections.”
SERAP urged Akpabio and Abbas to instead “amend the Nigerian Constitution 1999 [as amended] and the Electoral Act 2022 to remove constitutional immunity for state governors and their deputies who commit electoral offences, including vote-buying, to facilitate the investigation and prosecution of perpetrators.”
SERAP also urged Akpabio and Abbas “to amend the Nigerian Constitution and the Electoral Act to explicitly prohibit the appointment of members of any political party as resident electoral commissioners (RECs) of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).”
There is currently in the National Assembly a ‘Bill for an Act to Amend the Electoral Act 2022 to Make It Mandatory for All Nigerians of Majority Age to Vote in All National and State Elections and for Related Matters.’ The bill seeks to make voting compulsory and prescribes a six-month jail term or a fine of N100,000 or both for non-compliance.
In the letter signed by Kolawole Oluwadare, deputy director, SERAP at the weekend, the organisation said: “Jailing eligible Nigerians for deciding not to vote would be entirely inconsistent and incompatible with the letter and spirit of the Nigerian Constitution and the country’s international human rights obligations.”
SERAP said, “Rather than proposing bills that would severely punish Nigerians who may decide not to exercise their right to vote, the National Assembly ought to propose bills to remove constitutional immunity for governors and their deputies who commit electoral offences and undermine the integrity of the electoral process.”
According to SERAP, “The most effective way to solve the perennial voter apathy is to create a safe and conducive environment, combat the impunity of high-ranking politicians who commit electoral offences, and generally improve the electoral process to encourage the citizens to come out to vote, and not to send them to jail.”
The letter, read in part: “Should the National Assembly fails to drop the bill prescribing a six-month jail term for eligible Nigerians who decide not to vote in national and state elections, and should any such bill be assented to by President Bola Tinubu, SERAP would consider appropriate legal action to challenge the legality of any such law and ensure they are never implemented.”
“The idea of compulsory voting and jailing citizens for not voting is impracticable, unnecessary and unlawful. The right to vote is part of citizens’ right to participate in their own government and the choice of whether to exercise it is personal.”
“The right to vote includes the right not to vote. If the right to participation is a right of the citizen, she/he must be free to decide whether or not to exercise it.”
“Because the notion of a democracy exists by virtue of the consent of the citizens, voters must get to choose how they exercise consent, not be forced to the polls like ‘cattle to the slaughter.’”
“The National Assembly ought to propose bills to reduce the influence of money in politics, and encourage and not compel the exercise of the right to participation.”
“The proposed bill is a blatant violation of the right to political participation, which is guaranteed under section 14(1)(c) of the Nigerian Constitution, article 25 of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights and article 13 of the African Charter on Human and Peoples’ Rights to which Nigeria is a state party.”
“SERAP also urges you to amend the Nigerian Constitution and the Electoral Act to include explicit mandatory provisions on internet voter registration, and the use of modern technology, including in casting and counting, voter registration and systems for reporting results.”
“Amending the Nigerian Constitution and the Electoral Act to explicitly include the right of eligible Nigerians to vote and to vote securely would enhance the effective enjoyment of their right political participation and representative democracy.”
“It would rebuild public confidence in the ability of the National Assembly to effectively perform its constitutional responsibilities.”
“Any amendment of the Nigerian Constitution and the Electoral Act must include bills to address and punish governors and their deputies and their agents who commit electoral offences including voter suppression, voter intimidation and the destruction of polling units or theft of election materials.”
“It is important for the National Assembly to introduce and pass bills that would effectively rein politicians who continue to abuse the electoral rules to distort and undermine the right to participation with almost absolute impunity.”
“Removing constitutional immunity for governors and their deputies who commit electoral offences would address the brazen impunity for electoral and human rights crimes which frequently characterise the country’s elections.”
“The major problem facing the country’s democracy is the lack of respect for Nigerians’ right to participation and the concomitant lack of trust in election results. If citizens do not believe in the election process, then the entire system of democratic government becomes a questionable enterprise.”
“The crisis confronting Nigerian elections and lack of public trust and confidence in the electoral process can be addressed if the right of Nigerians to vote and to vote securely is explicitly recognized in the constitution as justiciable right.”
“Nigerians do not currently enjoy explicit right to vote and to vote securely. Although the Nigerian Constitution 1999 [as amended] provides in Section 14(1)(c) that, “the participation by the people in their government shall be ensured in accordance with the provisions of this Constitution”, this is not recognized as legally enforceable human right.”
“Nigerian election laws ought to be such that would give effect to the electorate’s will and uphold the popular mandate through clean, fair, and honest elections. The right to vote in a democracy is important because so many other matters depend upon its exercise.”
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