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General News

A Rough and Rocky Road Ahead for Nigeria’s Economy?

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By Lukman Otunuga, Senior Research Analyst at FXTM,

Africa’s largest economy commenced the final quarter by facing some of the biggest protests witnessed since military rule ended in 1999.

 

The protests boiled over during an already turbulent and rocky time not in the local but global economy. The cumulative effects of the COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns and other restrictions triggered a downturn together with a sharp increase in public debt. Given the resulting uncertainty from the protests, financial markets were spooked once again with the strong knock-on effects hitting Nigeria’s stock market and international bond while further clouding its economic outlook.

Before this development, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected a 4.3 percent contraction in GDP because of COVID-19. Depressed Oil prices enduring a prolonged lapse in demand has not helped matters with the aftermath of the protests projected to cost over N700-billion Naira in output – something that may drag on real GDP.

 

Inflation becoming a cause for concern

 

Nigeria has been scarred by three consecutive quarters of rising inflationary pressures, shaky economic fundamentals, Dollar scarcity and low Oil prices. A 24-hour curfew imposed on Lagos worsened the outlook for the already fragile economic landscape and local businesses which bore the marks of deep wounds from COVID-19. 

 

Inflation rose for 13 months straight, hitting 13.71 percent in September. Price increases were seen mainly in medical treatment, electricity, food supplies and passenger air travel but so far have not impacted the Oil industry. This is a welcome development given that Oil accounts for over 90 percent of export earnings and 70 percent of government revenues.

 

Banks clamp down on speculation

 

Focusing on the Naira, the banking system clamped down on speculation and limited foreign exchange transactions by individuals and corporations. The intention was to stabilise the currency which was at the centre of a perfect storm of low Oil prices, Dollar scarcity and a weaker economy.

 

The results of the foreign currency restrictions in the banking sector remain to be seen.

 

External pressures likely to influence outlook

 

Presidential elections in the US added to the uncertainty prevailing around Nigeria’s economic outlook, especially when it comes to Oil prices. According to national polls, Democrat challenger Joe Biden is leading the incumbent Donald Trump but electoral polls are the kind of forecast that can change last minute. Whatever the political race’s outcome, the result is critical for the US and global economy and may heavily influence the financial markets.

 

When it comes to Oil, Trump’s policy of backing the US Shale industry and ramping up US Oil production may fall by the wayside in the case that Biden wins the election. In turn, this could pressure global Oil prices and send them even lower. The downside scenario may weigh on Nigeria’s economy in spite of its efforts to diversify and reduce its reliance on the Oil industry.

 

A Trump win may increase confidence in the Oil markets in the short term but in the medium term, COVID-19 is still the main problem for Oil demand. OPEC forecasts lingering effects of COVID-19 on the Oil markets and in the long term, sees demand for the fossil fuel reduced by green and renewable energy sources like hydrogen.

 

Nonetheless, Oil will continue to have the largest share of the energy mix until 1945, according to OPEC.

In summary, Nigeria’s economy faces unprecedented headwinds in the fourth quarter and in the first quarter of 2021. The challenge is to get through the storm of a weakened economy facing internal and external threats and reach a place where there is smoother sailing. Now more than ever, it is important to keep diversifying the economy and make provisions for a calmer future where Nigeria can recover from its recent trials.


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Ugo Onwuaso is an ICT enthusiast. He believes technology should be used for general good. He holds a Master of Public Administration (MPA) degree from the Lagos state University. Dear Reader, Your support matters. But we believe that technology makes life more exciting and helps improve the lives of people around Nigeria and indeed the world. That is why, we have devoted our energy to independent reportage of technology and finance and how they affect lives. Our incisive and analytical view of how technology news affects the daily life help individuals and organizations make up their minds. Quality journalism costs money. Today, we're asking that you support us to do more. Kindly support our effort to deliver technology and finance journalism to everyone in the world. Donate as little as N1,000. Bank transfers can be made to: UBA Plc 1017156876 Communication Week Media Ltd

General News

EFCC Arrests 133 @ Ponzi Scheme Training Academy

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Operatives of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), has busted a Ponzi Scheme Academy and arrested 133 suspects in Abuja.

EFCC Arrests 133 @ Ponzi Scheme Training Academy

They were arrested at the Compensation Layout in Gwagwalada area of the Federal Capital Territory, FCT, Abuja, following actionable intelligence on the existence of the Academy.

The Academy, named Q University (a.k.a Q-Net) is in the business of recruiting gullible young Nigerians who are trained to recruit more gullible citizens into the scheme with the promise of getting unrealistic profit returns.

The suspects are enrolled into a training codenamed: “Special Training for New Generation Billionaire” and brainwashed to believe that they would graduate into the league of billionaires.

They got into the training by obtaining a form the promoters called “Independent Representative Application Form” with promotional slogans such as: “I’m a Champion” “I’m Unstoppable”, “I’m Infinity”, among others.

The EFCC carried out the operation in collaboration with officers and men of 176 Guards Battalion, Nigerian Army.

Items recovered from the suspects include phones, computers and other electronic gadgets.

They will be charged to court as soon as investigations are concluded.


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General News

Big Companies Leaving Nigeria because of “Middlemanism” –  FG

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Big companies are leaving Nigeria are leaving Nigeria because of what Heineken Lokpobiri, minister of state for petroleum resources described as “middlemanism”.

Big Companies Leaving Nigeria because of “Middlemanism” -  FG

So called “middlemanism” is slack form of middleman, which is an intermediary who facilitates transactions between a buyer and a seller, often taking on roles like wholesaling, distribution, or brokering, and earning a commission or fee for their services.

The minister made this known during the opening of the Petroleum Technology Association of Nigeria’s Sub-Saharan Africa International Petroleum Conference.

Heineken Lokpobiri disclosed that a lot of intermediaries who entered the oil industry caused its damage.

According to the minister, due to middlemen and intermediaries, some big and multinational oil service giant such as Schlumberger, Halliburton, McDermott, and others left Nigeria.

“We have made mistakes. And I’m saying this specifically so that all African countries here today will not make the mistake that Nigeria made. When I became minister, one of the issues I was confronted with had to do with the multinational service companies all exiting Nigeria. They’ve all gone, except, maybe this Italian company, Saipem. That was the only one that was around. So we had a situation where there was a monopoly.

“The other big boys—the Schlumberger, Halliburton, the McDermotts—all of them have gone. All of you here in PETAN have your good days in these companies. That was where you started from. That was where you actually developed your capacity,” Lokpobiri said.


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Authorities Seize 1842 Devices in African-Wide Cybercrime Crackdown

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Authorities in seven African countries have arrested 306 suspects and seized 1842 devices in a sweeping international operation targeting cyber-enabled fraud and scams.

Authorities Seize 1842 Devices in African-Wide Cybercrime Crackdown

Dubbed Operation Red Card, the effort ran from November 2024 to February 2025, focusing on dismantling cybercrime networks that defrauded over 5000 victims through mobile banking fraud, investment scams and malicious messaging app schemes., according to infosecurity-magazine.com

In Nigeria, police arrested 130 suspects, including 113 foreign nationals, for running fraudulent investment schemes and online casinos.

Authorities found that criminals funneled illicit proceeds into digital assets to obscure their financial trails.

Investigations also uncovered signs of human trafficking, with some individuals coerced into participating in the scams.

Law enforcement seized: 26 vehicles; 16 houses; 39 plots of land; and 685 electronic devices

In Rwanda, 45 individuals were arrested for orchestrating a social engineering scam that defrauded victims of more than $305,000 in 2024.

Scammers posed as telecommunications employees and falsely claimed victims had won lotteries to extract sensitive information.

Others impersonated injured family members to request emergency financial assistance.

Authorities recovered $103,043 and seized 292 devices.

South African authorities arrested 40 individuals and confiscated over 1000 SIM cards, along with 53 desktop computers and towers linked to a sophisticated SIM box fraud scheme.

This setup allowed cybercriminals to disguise international calls as local ones, facilitating large-scale SMS phishing attacks.

 

 

In Zambia, law enforcement apprehended 14 members of a cyber syndicate specializing in malware attacks.

The criminals sent phishing messages containing malicious links, infecting victims’ devices and taking control of messaging and banking apps. This enabled them to access financial accounts and further spread fraudulent links.

The operation was carried out through INTERPOL’s African Joint Operation against Cybercrime (AFJOC) initiative, which supports law enforcement efforts in combating cyber-threats.

The United Kingdom’s Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office funded Operation Red Card under the AFJOC initiative, allocating £2.6m to enhance Africa’s law enforcement capabilities in detecting and preventing cybercrime.

The seven participating countries – Benin, Côte d’Ivoire, Nigeria, Rwanda, South Africa, To and Zambia – continue to collaborate on intelligence-led cybercrime investigations.

“The success of Operation Red Card demonstrates the power of international cooperation in combating cybercrime, which knows no borders and can have devastating effects on individuals and communities,” commented Neal Jetton, Interpol’s director of the cybercrime directorate.

“The recovery of significant assets and devices, as well as the arrest of key suspects, sends a strong message to cyber-criminals that their activities will not go unpunished.”

 

 


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