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Africa’s Telecom Revenue to Hi $59Bn in 5 Years

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Eugene Juwah, EVC, NCC
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Sub-Saharan Africa’s retail telecoms revenue will grow at a faster rate than any other region in the world over the next 5 years (6.4% CAGR over 2012–2018), but operators in the region must still look to develop new digital economy revenue streams to supplement core services.

Analysys Mason’s most-recent Sub-Saharan Africa forecasts showed the region’s telecoms market will grow faster than any other region worldwide over the next 5 years

Telecoms retail revenue reached $41 billion in 2012, and will rise to $59 billion in 2018, growing from 3% of worldwide total revenue in 2012, to 4% in 2018.

According to Analysys Mason, handset data services, mobile broadband and fixed broadband offer the strongest opportunities for revenue growth in Sub-Saharan Africa through 2018, and will help offset stagnating messaging services and declining fixed voice revenue.

 The M2M market will also grow rapidly, but will represent only a small share of total revenue.

By 2018, mobile networks will account for more than 98% of voice connections and 80% of broadband connections in the region. The number of mobile broadband connections will reach 29.3 million by 2018

Mobile voice revenue growth (at a CAGR of 6.3%) will be a key driver, and is by far the largest service line in terms of revenue, reaching $39 billion annually by 2018.

Analysys Mason said that revenue growth from mobile messaging will slow to a CAGR of 1.8%, versus 14.4% annual growth during 2009–2012, while mobile broadband (mid-screen and large-screen) revenue will grow at 14.6% per year.

Mobile handset data revenue will grow faster than mid- and large-screen mobile broadband, but will still only be about one fifth of the size of mobile voice revenue in the region by 2018.

Smartphones will account for 80% of active broadband connections and 22% of handsets in the region overall, by 2018. In general, the take-up of smartphones in the region is progressing more quickly than we were forecasting earlier this year, driven by the availability of affordable handsets and consumer appetite for smartphones, which has been boosted by data services.

3G will reach 152 million active SIMs (excluding M2M) by 2018, accounting for slightly less than 20% of non-M2M SIMs.

3G take-up is clearly driven in part by fixed broadband substitution, but will also be driven by operators’ efforts to expand 3G coverage and capacity, and increasing availability of less-expensive data tariffs and affordable, data-enabled devices.

4G is still a long-term play in Sub-Saharan Africa, and is constrained by spectrum availability issues, coverage, device affordability and licensing delays.

Operators in the region that have launched LTE services include Cell C, Neotel, Orange Uganda, Telkom Mobile and Vodacom in South Africa. 4G will account for only 1.52% of the 774 million active mobile connections in Sub-Saharan Africa at the end of 2018.

Despite strong interest in high-speed mobile broadband services, the 2G base in Sub-Saharan Africa will continue to increase throughout the forecast period, and will still account for the majority of SIMs (78%) in 2018. 3G and 4G will be limited to urban areas because rural populations are more price-sensitive and will continue to use basic phones.

This, as well as the high proportion of prepaid mobile users in South Africa (at 95%), must be taken into account by companies looking to develop new revenue streams from digital economy and over-the-top services.

As in other regions, operators in Sub-Saharan Africa are looking to bolster core service revenue through offering and enabling B2B and B2C digital economy services for their subscribers.

Key M2M verticals in Sub-Saharan Africa will be retail, banking and fleet management, as well as applications with socioeconomic benefits, such as m-health. M2M connections will grow from 2.8 million in 2012 to 28.9 million by the end of 2018, at a CAGR of 45%. M2M services will account for 2.9% of all mobile connections in Sub-Saharan Africa by the end of 2018. However, revenue per connection is low – M2M revenue will represent less than 1% of mobile retail revenue.

Nigeria and South Africa will be the main M2M markets in the region. In South Africa, in particular, plans to roll out smart meters during the next 5 years will drive the market.

In other markets, Safaricom in Kenya has developed a mobile solution to make clean energy more accessible and affordable to rural areas, and Orange Uganda launched an M2M offering in late 2012 for fleet management, and remote monitoring and surveillance.

Over-the-top services are gaining traction in Africa as smartphone usage grows, but willingness to pay is limited, and enabling payment is also an ongoing challenge.

Mobile money continues to be an area of intense interest for the region, and for service providers, given the size of the opportunity among the unbanked.

Analysys Mason said that the success of M-Pesa has spawned a plethora of smaller mobile money and payments services, usually local, which have achieved varying levels of success, as well as larger-scale, operator-led initiatives, such as Tigo Cash.

“Operators are also turning their attention to monetising customer relationships through cross-selling non-telecoms financial products, such as insurance (for example, airtel’s and MTN’s recent airtime-paid insurance offerings in Nigeria). We expect many more examples of this type of innovation to emerge as operators look to supplement core services growth in the African market” Analysys Mason  stated


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Starlink Becomes Nigeria’s Second-Largest ISP, Overtakes FiberOne

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Elon Musk’s Starlink has become the second-largest Internet Service Provider (ISP) in Nigeria, surpassing FiberOne in customer numbers while Spectranet remains the market leader.

Starlink Becomes Nigeria’s Second-Largest ISP, Overtakes FiberOne

Elon Musk

This was revealed in a recent report by the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC).

According to NCC’s Q3 2024 data, Spectranet maintained its top position with 105,441 active subscribers, despite losing over 8,000 users since December 2023.

Meanwhile, Starlink, which launched in Nigeria in January 2023, grew rapidly to 65,564 subscribers, adding 41,667 users in just nine months.

This pushed FiberOne to third place with 33,010 customers.

The report also showed that out of 241 licensed ISPs in Nigeria, only 124 had active users in Q3 2024, collectively serving 307,946 subscribers.

However, these numbers remain far below the dominance of mobile network operators such as MTN, Airtel, Globacom, and 9mobile, which together accounted for over 130 million internet users as of September 2024.

Starlink’s expansion has been driven by its satellite-based internet service, which provides coverage in remote areas where traditional ISPs struggle.

By the end of 2023, the company had already secured the third position with 23,897 users, marking a 113% growth from the previous quarter.

Its growth has also been supported by partnerships with Nigerian companies like TD Africa and Konga.

In 2023, Starlink briefly stopped accepting new orders in major cities, including Lagos, Abuja, and Port Harcourt, due to capacity issues.


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FG Commits $2Bn to Digital Infrastructure

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Bosun Tijani, Minister of Communications, Innovations and Digital Economy
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The Federal Government says it has committed $2 billion to enhance Nigeria’s digital infrastructure, aiming to boost the nation’s economy and safeguard the digital identities and rights of its citizens.

Bosun Tijani, Minister of Communications, Innovations and Digital Economy

Bosun Tijani, Minister of Communications, Innovations and Digital Economy disclosed in Abuja on Tuesday while briefing newsmen on the forthcoming International Telecommunication Union, (ITU) Summit holding in Abuja from Wednesday to Thursday this week.

The ITU International Submarine Cable Resilience Summit will feature over 250 participants from 194 ITU member countries, with key representatives from the private sector and academia expected to attend.

Tijani who addressed journalists alongside Tomas Lamanauskas, the Deputy Secretary General of ITU,said the present administration was not making two billion dollars investments in digital infrastructures for the fun of it.

He said the present administration is committed to digital connectivity for the people to make lives more meaningful and impactful, adding that the investments would ensure that Nigerians enjoy the best quality of digital services and protection in the nearest future.

The ITU International Submarine Cable Resilience Summit aims to foster global collaboration, secure innovative solutions, and engage leaders from government, industry and international organisations to strengthen the global digital infrastructures.

“This investment is part of a larger vision to provide every Nigerian with access to high-quality digital services, while safeguarding their digital identities,” Tijani said.

The ITU International Submarine Cable Resilience Summit, co-hosted by Nigeria and Portugal, will explore innovative strategies to strengthen the security and resilience of submarine cables—vital infrastructure for global digital connectivity.

The summit is bringing together government leaders, industry experts, and international organizations to discuss ways to safeguard submarine cable networks, which are increasingly vulnerable to disruptions.

Tijani emphasized that the discussions at the summit will focus on finalizing a global declaration on submarine cable resilience, calling for heightened action from both governments and private sectors to protect digital infrastructure worldwide.

In his words, “Nigeria is not just solving local issues; we are taking a global leadership role in securing submarine cables, which are essential for digital connectivity”.

The summit will address the growing concern of disruptions in submarine cable networks, with an average of 150 to 200 cables being damaged or cut annually, severely impacting global digital connectivity.

To tackle these challenges, the summit will include key international organizations such as the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), promoting coordination across industries such as telecom, shipping, and fishing, which impact submarine cable integrity.

Tijani also highlighted Nigeria’s leadership in the digital space, stating that while the country already boasts a robust submarine cable network, with around eight or nine cables landing in Nigeria, the key challenge now is expanding these networks inland and ensuring reliable, high-speed internet access for all Nigerians.

“We are committed to connecting every Nigerian, ensuring that digital infrastructure benefits all citizens,” he added. Tomas Lamanauskas, Deputy Secretary-General of ITU, praised Nigeria’s forward-thinking investments in digital infrastructure.

He highlighted that Africa is experiencing rapid growth in digital traffic, and Nigeria’s investments will play a pivotal role in ensuring the continent remains competitive on the global digital stage.

According to him, “This region is the fastest-growing for international digital connectivity, and Nigeria’s leadership is critical to ensuring Africa’s success in the global digital economy.

The summit is expected to provide a platform for robust discussions on enhancing submarine cable security, a critical pillar for the global digital economy, with over 50 countries participating in this essential dialogue.


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Network International Partners with MTN Group to Enhance Digital Payment Solutions Across Africa

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Network International, a leading enabler of digital commerce across the Middle East and Africa (MEA), has been appointed as a Payment Processor – Issuing partner for MTN Group Fintech, Africa’s leading mobile financial services provider.

This partnership marks a significant extension of Network’s portfolio of issuer processing collaborations throughout the African continent.

With a footprint spanning over 50 countries and serving over 250 financial institutions, Network International brings its expertise to this partnership which will enhance MTN Fintech’s cutting-edge mobile services and provide even greater value to stakeholders and customers across Africa.

The partnership will focus on rolling out card issuance products across key MTN Fintech markets, starting with Rwanda which is already operational. Soon Uganda, Ivory Coast, and Nigeria will also be covered under this collaboration.

Network International will provide a comprehensive range of services, including transaction processing, card management and online fraud prevention. MTN Fintech users will benefit from a seamless experience accessing both traditional mobile services and innovative digital payment solutions.

Dr. Reda Helal, Group Managing Director – Processing, Africa and Co-Head Group Processing at Network International commented: “Our collaboration with MTN Group Fintech marks a major milestone for our outsourced payments services in Africa.

“It demonstrates our ability to successfully serve Mobile Network Operators (MNOs) via our fully-fledged processing solutions and our continued dedication and commitment to the African region.

“We are excited to support MTN Group Fintech’s growth strategy, and its business development plans across the continent.”

Cedric N’guessan, Executive for Payment and E-commerce at MTN Group Fintech added, “This collaboration with Network International is pivotal in enhancing financial inclusion across Africa and beyond.

“It enables our customers to actively engage in the global economy, aligning perfectly with our strategic goals alongside Mastercard to broaden access to digital financial services across the continent.”

MTN Group provides voice, data, fintech, enterprise wholesale and API services to more than 288 million customers in 14 African markets.


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