General News
Agusto & Co: The State of the Nigerian Electric Power Industry
As the Electric Power Industry (the Industry) announced yet another review of electric tariffs in January 2021, after much deliberation and delays, a key question that comes to mind is ‘will a rise in tariffs result in better power supply?’ To answer this question it is imperative to examine the state of the Industry post-privatisation.
Since the privatisation exercise that commenced in 2013, the Nigerian Electric Power Industry has remained fraught with many of the same challenges ranging from unreflective tariffs to high loss levels, obsolete infrastructure, weak policy implementation and gas shortages.
All of these have culminated in weak and erratic power supply and a dependence on self-generation by many businesses and households. Furthermore, electricity distribution in Nigeria remains plagued by high technical, operational and commercial inefficiencies.
In 2020, the country’s 11 Distribution companies (DisCos) only billed for 74% of the energy received from the transmission company, below the 81% reported in the prior year. Billing efficiency which has historically been impaired by a low metering rate and energy theft, with only 37% of registered electricity customers metered in 2020, was severely impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic.
Agusto & Co believes the impact of the pandemic was more visible amongst consumer groups with post-paid meters and estimated bills given that the social distancing rules and movement restrictions established to curb the spread of the virus impaired the physical billing process. Collection efficiency also fell marginally to 66% from 68% one year prior.
Consequently, the aggregate technical, commercial and collection (ATC&C) losses for the 11 DisCos rose to 51% in 2020 from 45% in 2019. This high loss level remains one of the many reasons for the kickback from electricity consumers on tariff increases, especially in the absence of a significant and immediate improvement in power supply.
Agusto & Co notes that these challenges have not only weakened the ability of operators to meet electricity demand but also threaten their financial viability, with significant implications for the fiscal health of the country. Despite the series of amendments to the tariff structure, cash flows from MYTO (the Multi Year Tariff Order) have remained insufficient to fully cover the costs of electricity supplied.
The fear of the impact of a ‘rate shock’ on consumers and the accompanying loss of “political capital” has prevented the effective implementation of necessary amendments that will align the MYTO’s assumptions with economic realities. Electricity has thus consistently been sold at a discount, with end-user electricity tariffs much lower than the cost of electricity supplied.
The shortfall from unreflective tariffs has been borne in large parts by the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) through multiple intervention funds and payment assurance facilities from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) totaling close to ₦2 trillion (US$4.9 billion ) as at the end of 2020, equivalent to c.6% of CBN’s balance sheet. Despite this level of intervention, the generating companies had estimated receivables of over ₦400 billion in 2020 alone. Whilst the interventions have been central in ensuring the profitability of operators along the Industry’s value chain, they remain insufficient and unsustainable.
More recently, there have been notable efforts by the primary regulator – NERC – to minimise the challenges faced by operators in the Industry. In particular, tariffs have been raised to near cost reflective levels and adjusted to match consumption via an initiative dubbed Service Reflective Tariffs (SRT).
The new tariff model as the name indicates is expected to reflect and match the quality of service received by the ultimate consumers of electricity. Distribution companies will therefore discriminate in the application of tariffs; consumers who enjoy longer daily supply will be expected to pay higher rates and vice versa.
The SRT like other MYTO models has key estimates (and projections) for macroeconomic and industry-specific indicators including inflation, exchange rates and electricity generation. Other company-dependent factors considered in the determination of tariffs include the amount of electricity received and the aggregate technical, commercial and collection (ATC&C) losses.
Ultimately, tariff shortfalls (the difference between end-user tariffs and cost reflective tariffs) are expected to taper off by the end of 2022, with tariffs fully reflective and sufficient to cover the cost of production.
Whilst a number of the assumptions align with market realities, we note that the inflation and electricity generation estimates in the SRT model are much higher than the actual entries reported for the corresponding periods.
In our view, these disparities have the potential to impair the attainment of cost reflectiveness. Agusto & Co believes adopting scenario analysis and modelling will provide a more robust framework to determine an appropriate tariff structure for the Industry in a dynamic macroeconomic environment such as Nigeria’s.
In addition to the SRT, the primary regulator – the National Electricity Commission (NERC) – introduced a minimum remittance threshold for each distribution company which stipulates a mandatory payment that must be made to the bulk trader for electricity received.
Furthermore, in February 2020, NERC introduced guidelines for ‘Merit Order Dispatching’ which involves ranking electricity generation and dispatch by the transmission company of Nigeria (TCN) in ascending order of costs with the cheapest electricity – such as those from Hydro plants with no fuel cost component – ahead of more expensive plants.
The order also provides guidelines on the alignment of invoicing for capacity charge and energy delivered as well as a framework for the settlement of any imbalance between DisCos and TCN.
The Merit Dispatching Order should eliminate the shift of responsibility for load rejection prevalent between DisCos and the TCN and improve the technical and operational efficiencies of these operators.
In August 2020, the Central Bank of Nigeria issued a circular that all deposit money banks are expected to warehouse and manage collection inflows from all distribution companies – DisCos, (including the collection agents of these DisCos) under specific guidelines as contained in the document. The objective of this ‘ring fencing’ is to secure cash collected from the DisCos and ensure that these distribution companies meet their mandatory obligations.
While operators are generally optimistic that the new tariffs and accompanying regulations would enhance efficiency and position the Industry on the trajectory towards achieving financial independence and ultimately improvements in the volume and quality of electricity supply, Agusto & Co remains cautious.
In our view, to truly achieve the objectives of privatisation, reforms need to be accompanied by a strong and enabling regulatory environment. Furthermore, improved access to finance, efficiency in billing and metering as well as consistent and secure gas supply are vital to reap the benefits of privatization in the long run.
While the journey to constant electric power supply remains far and long-winded, Agusto & Co believes the initiatives undertaken by the primary regulator – NERC– if consistently enforced have the potential to move the Industry forward in the right direction.
General News
Afe Babalola University Partners with New Horizons to Integrate 4IR Skills into Academic Curriculum
The institution has been lauded for its rapid ascent in academic rankings and its dedication to producing socially relevant graduates since its establishments in 2009 by legal luminary Aare Afe Babalola. It has consistently demonstrated excellence in education and research, and has been recognized as Nigeria’s best university for three consecutive years.
Deputy Director, ICT, Afe Babalola University (ABUAD), Ado Ekiti, Muyiwa Oladimeji (left); Vice Chancellor,
Prof. Smaranda Olarinde; Managing Director, New Horizons Nigeria, Tim Akano and the University Bursar,
Pastor Dupe Babatola, during the signing of Memorandum of Understanding between New Horizons and the varsity for the integration of 4IR skill sets into ABUAD’s academic curriculum in Ado-Ekiti, Ekiti State.
Afe Babalola University has entered into a strategic partnership with New Horizons Nigeria to integrate Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) skill sets into its academic curriculum. This collaboration aims to empower ABUAD students with globally relevant competencies in Artificial Intelligence (AI), Internet of Things (IoT), Blockchain, 3D Technology, and the Metaverse, Web 3.0, Full Stack, Cyber Security among others. By embedding these cutting-edge technologies into its programs, ABUAD reinforces its commitment to producing graduates who are not only job-ready but also poised to be innovators and wealth creators in the global tech ecosystem.
The Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) was signed by Prof. Smaranda Olarinde, Vice Chancellor of ABUAD, and Mr. Tim Akano, CEO of New Horizons Nigeria. The University Bursar Pastor Dupe Babatola, and Mr. Muyiwa Oladimeji, the Deputy Director of ICT were also present at this meeting.
According to Prof. Olarinde, she stated that the partnership aligns with ABUAD’s vision of fostering innovation and excellence and by integrating 4IR skills into the academic curriculum, students are being prepared to meet the demands of the modern workforce and to drive technological advancement.
Also, Mr. Akano asserted that “New Horizons is proud to collaborate with ABUAD, an institution that shares its commitment to technological empowerment. Together, we will provide students with the tools and certifications necessary to excel in today’s digital world. It could be recalled that in the first three global industrial revolutions, Africa was not present at the parties of Agric revolution of the 17th century, Industrial revolution of the 18th century, and Information Communication revolution of the 20th century, Africa got late to the party. This explains the large-scale hunger, poverty, and diseases that Africa is battling with today. We are in a new era, the age of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). AGI will determine the trajectory of every profession, going forward. Regardless of whatever course or profession one chooses, there is a component of AGI in it that will decide who is a modern lawyer or obsolete lawyer, who is a modern Doctor or Obsolete Doctor, who is a modern Engineer or obsolete engineer, and who is a modern art student or obsolete art student. Any university today that produce graduates without relevant 4IR skills and certifications attached during their undergrad years is producing obsolete graduates. The four major global challenges confronting humanity are not permanent problems but rather TECHNICAL/Technological problems. A case in point was smallpox, which had killed over 400 million people worldwide. However, when Edward Jenner invented a vaccine, using technology, smallpox got killed itself. Therefore, all the key problems in the world today: hunger, poverty, disease, Climate Crisis, Youth Unemployment are all technological problems that need technological solutions. This is why ABUAD’s partnership with New Horizons is necessary, critical and urgent with a view to ensuring that going forward, the ABUAD graduates have what it takes to compete with the Chinese, Americans and Japanese when it comes to 4.0IR innovations”.
This strategic partnership with New Horizons Nigeria signifies a pivotal step in ABUAD’s mission to remain at the forefront of educational innovation, and to ensure that its students are well-equipped to navigate and lead in the evolving technological landscape.
New Horizons Nigeria is Africa’s largest ICT training organization with over 200 training centres in various universities, high schools, and retail locations across Nigeria, empowering over 100,000 students yearly. New Horizons Nigeria is a franchise of New Horizons International, the world’s largest ICT training institute with Head Office in California and offices in 90 countries worldwide. The institution pioneered the integration of International ICT certification into the Nigeria academic curricular twenty years ago and some of the students that passed through New Horizons training in their respective universities are managing global corporations today in Silicon valley and working with global IT giants like Microsoft, MasterCard, Oracle, Google and Amazon among others.
United Bank for Africa (UBA) celebrated its 75th anniversary during its 65th Annual General Meeting, highlighting decades of resilience, innovation, and commitment to service.
Mr. Tony Elumelu, Group Chairman, reflected on the bank’s journey, emphasizing its ability to adapt and transform over three-quarters of a century.
He announced UBA’s impressive financial performance for 2024, including a gross revenue of ₦3.2 trillion and profit after tax of ₦767 billion.
The bank’s total deposits grew by 42% to ₦24.6 trillion, while its loan book expanded by 35% to ₦7.5 trillion.
Mr. Elumelu also addressed UBA’s efforts to meet the Central Bank of Nigeria’s directive to increase the minimum capital requirement for international commercial banks.
Following a successful rights issue, UBA’s capital now stands at ₦355.2 billion, with plans to raise the remaining ₦144.8 billion later this year.
GMD/CEO, Mr. Oliver Alawuba, reiterated UBA’s commitment to enhancing customer experience through digital banking.
He highlighted the bank’s focus on leveraging artificial intelligence and advanced technology to serve its 45 million customers across 24 countries more effectively.
UBA’s dedication to environmental stewardship and social progress was evident in its 2024 initiatives, including planting 4,550 seedlings to offset carbon emissions and distributing over 13,000 books through the Read Africa Initiative.
The bank’s efforts were recognized with multiple awards, including “Bank of the Year” in five African countries.
As UBA continues its journey, Mr. Elumelu and Mr. Alawuba expressed gratitude to shareholders, customers, staff, and regulators for their unwavering support.
The bank remains committed to innovation, financial inclusion, and driving economic growth across Africa and the globe.
Sextortion scams have become so widespread that the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) is sending agents to Nigeria to help track down the perpetrators.
The agency’s “Operation Artemis” has led to the arrest of 22 Nigerians, half of whom are “directly linked” to sextortion incidents in which victims died by suicide.
Sextortion scams often begin on social media, where perpetrators pose as attractive young women to lure victims—typically unsuspecting teenage boys—into sending nude photos or explicit videos.
Once the images are obtained, the scammers turn to blackmail, threatening to leak the content unless the victim pays up.
In some cases, the sextortion results in teenage victims taking their own lives over fear of the nudes leaking.
In Thursday’s announcement, the FBI noted it’s been “observing a significant increase over the last three years in financially motivated sextortion schemes targeting young males ages 14-17, resulting in more than 20 minor victims dying by suicide.”
The agency is also facing a 30% year-over-year increase in sextortion-related tips.
“According to the FBI’s Internet Crime Complaint Center or IC3, there were over 54,000 [extortion-related] victims in 2024, up from 34,000 in 2023,” it said.
“Over the last two years there have been nearly $65 million dollars in financial losses due to this crime.”
In response, the FBI says 55 agency field offices came together to identify “nearly 3,000 victims of financially motivated sextortion,” which led investigators to track down the culprits in Nigeria.
The US has since extradited at least three suspects from Nigeria.
“These subjects will now be held accountable in the American justice system, with more subjects still awaiting extraditions in Nigeria,” the FBI added.
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