General News
Austin’s Five Forces Model for Analysing Sustainable Development
By Austin Okere
The sustainability challenge is becoming clearer. Being a Consultant at the Sustainable Development Goals, Africa Centre (SDGCA) in Rwanda and on the Global Agenda Council of the World Economic Forum (WEF) has exposed me to the global framework for economic growth that protects the fundamental pillars of humanity and the planet.
The SDGs are about People, Planet, Prosperity and Peace – and about driving development in an inclusive way that leaves no one behind. These tenets were further reinforced through my interview with Professor Paul Romer, Nobel Laureate, and former Chief Economist at the World Bank.
I see Five Forces driving sustainable growth as follows – Organizations, Population, Enablers, Infrastructure, and the Socio-Political Environment. I have codified below, the relation between these forces in the in a model which I call the Austin’s Five Forces Model for analyzing Sustainable Development.
Below are the Five Forces and how they impact sustainability:
- Organisations – providing jobs for the population for shared prosperity
- Population – a large social group subject to the same political authority and dominant cultural expectations. This is the source of skilled labour to the organisation and who in turn contribute to the welfare of society
- Enablers – institutions and mechanisms necessary for supporting efficient and equitable pursuance of opportunities in the society. They may include regulation, education, healthcare, and technology among others
- Infrastructure – the basic physical and organizational structures and facilities needed for the operation of a society or enterprise. They include housing, ports, roads, power, and communication
- Social-Pollical Environment – the central values of society, politics, culture and public opinion, as well as the assurance of security and the adherence to rule of law that governs the society
ORGANISATIONS
At the heart of providing jobs is the organisation, public, private, start-ups and non-governmental.
A commonly held truism is that government alone cannot provide all jobs and is not big enough to shoulder the entire economy. Take Nigeria for example, in real terms, government spending at 5.7% of GDP (2019) means non-government economic activity accounts for almost all of GDP (about 95%). Among OECD economies, business activity accounts for 72 percent of GDP with monetary flows from labour income, capital income, taxes, investment in capital assets, and payments to suppliers. It is this crucial force that needs to be enabled to unleash economic growth.
In many economies, 80% of the jobs are provided by entrepreneurs. They are responsible for most of the advances in new products and processes, provide most of the employment opportunities and are a key indicator of the overall performance of an economy.
In Nigeria, while there are only about 161 companies listed on the Stock Exchange, the total number of MSMEs as of 2019 stood at 41.5m according to the National Bureau of statistics. Just imagine the scale of jobs that will be created if each of these businesses is empowered to employ just only one additional person.
POPULATION
A developing society is based on the ideal by which equality of opportunity is available to any member, allowing the highest aspirations and goals to be achieved. While society in the past was split between the haves and have nots, society today is split more into those who are included and those left behind.
This inequality is more significant in emerging markets, where 80% of the world reside. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the unemployment rate in Nigeria is 32.6%, while the youth unemployment rate (15-24 years) in 2020 was 58.3%.
Young people who cannot find jobs still need to eat. With few legitimate options, illegal means become attractive.
Research has shown that youth unemployment increases all sorts of crime. It is estimated that by 2050, Africa’s population will double, reaching 2.5b people – just about the current combined population of India and China. Without a credible plan towards sustainable employment, this could be a ticking bomb.
What is more worrisome is that while the population grew at a rate of 2.6%, the GDP growth rate was lower at 2.2% in 2019 according to the World Bank.
ENABLERS
Enablers are institutions and mechanisms which remove economic blockages and open economic arteries. Anything that enhances economic activity to a community will culminate in an economic driver for the society. Regulators are one of the most critical enablers of a society.
Regulators, however, tend to be either a source of support or a headwind against progress. The regulator should not constrict the pursuit of opportunity nor act in a manner to entrench protectionism.
While Nigeria has become one of the world’s fastest-growing technology markets, attracting investments of over $216m in the first quarter of 2021 alone, there is a palpable apprehension among technology start-ups, after a series of regulatory headwinds from different government bodies.
These include the Central bank of Nigeria’s ban on cryptocurrency trading and the Security and Exchanges Commission’s clampdown on technology platforms for purchasing shares in foreign companies outside the Commission’s regulatory purview and registration.
Until more people think they can successfully start businesses and prosper, we will not have enough jobs in the economy. Other significant enablers are health and education. On the supply side for jobs, the education system needs to be set up so that people leaving, either at the secondary or university level have employable skills.
The most significant enabler in modern times is the Technology Platform. These Platforms provide a means of significantly extending services at low-cost efficiencies, and as a result draw many people into the consumption pool, while also creating many jobs along the value chain which would otherwise simply not exist. Technology Platforms have heralded an era of unprecedented inclusiveness.
For instance, MPESA the popular payment system had more than 60% of Kenya’s 33 million mobile users and in 2015 transacted $28m on her platform. Similar applications have metamorphosed across Africa, and Mobile Money services are today generating 6.7% of Africa’s GDP.
Platforms have made it possible to reach far more than our traditional schools can cater to, by leveraging Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs). Research and Markets forecast that e-learning will grow to $325 Billion by 2025 from $107b in 2015.
The Covid-19 pandemic has severely tested many sovereign health systems, and many have been found significantly wanting.
INFRASTRUCTURE
Infrastructure speaks to facilities needed for the operation of a society, and includes power, ports, transportation, communication, housing, and not least, broadband to homes and offices. This has now become imperative due to the increase in digital transformation, largely driven by the Covid-19 pandemic. A lack of these will severely constrict the smooth production and delivery of goods and services.
By 2050, the infrastructure needed for the 2.5b Africans will be unprecedented in the history of humankind; 700m housing units, 300k schools, and 100k health centres. Can you imagine Africa without a significant network of rail or a functional underground transport system in 2050?
The UK’s Underground Tube system moves 1.35b people annually and has been operating for about 150 years. African Countries such as Ethiopia and Kenya are making strident advances in rail transportation.
The biggest infrastructure drawback, however, has been electricity. Almost half of the people living in Sub-Saharan Africa do not have access to electricity. The attendant impact on entrepreneurship can only be imagined. If Africa were able to achieve in power what she has achieved in telecoms the impact on sustainable development would be immense.
SOCIO-POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT
Nothing impacts sustainable growth as much as a stable socio-political environment. it enables the attraction of capital for rapid economic development. The rule of law is paramount for a stable polity. Any society that does not abide by some code of conduct whether in public or private matters tends to become chaotic, and virtually ungovernable.
The blind application of the law without regard to status, tribe or creed is what enshrines deterrence. It is the pursuit of deterrence that drives developed countries from sparing any high-ranking members of the society who fall foul of the law, not least their leaders, who are held to a higher account.
When we analyse the conduct of the people from rich and developed countries, we observed that a majority abide by the following principles of life: ethics, integrity, responsibility, the respect of most citizens for the rule of law, pride in their work, the effort to save and invest, and the will to be productive and punctual.
In poorer countries, a small minority follow these basic principles in their daily lives.
A society is not poor because they lack natural resources or because nature is cruel to them, but rather because they lack the right attitude. Conscience is usually thrown out, and justice is on sale to the highest bidder; this is what is known as a market society.
Russian American writer and philosopher, Ayn Rand succinctly sums it up as follows:
“When you see that in order to produce, you need to obtain permission from men who produce nothing – When you see that money is flowing to those who deal, not in goods, but in favours – When you see that men get richer by graft and by pull than by work, and your laws don’t protect you against them, but protect them against you – When you see corruption being rewarded and honesty becoming a self-sacrifice – You may know that your society is doomed.”
According to Yury Fedotov, Executive Director, United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime,
“Corruption represents a major threat to the rule of law and sustainable development the world over. It has a disproportionate, destructive impact on the poor and most vulnerable, but it is also quite simply bad for business.”
The sustainable development of any society depends on where they lie on the spectrum of these critical five forces.
Where does your society lie?
Credits to Professor Michael Porter for the term “Five Forces Model”
Austin Okere is the Founder of CWG Plc, the largest security in the technology sector of the Nigerian Stock Exchange, and Entrepreneur-in-Residence at CBS, New York.
The Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Senator Heineken Lokpobiri, said that the Afreximbank would invest $19 billion to fund the African Energy Bank.
He said the $19 billion would go a long way toward tackling and overcoming energy poverty, driving economic growth, and improving the lives of millions of people.
The minister disclosed this while speaking at the opening ceremony of the Nigerian Pavilion, hosted by the Petroleum Technology Association of Nigeria (PETAN), at the ongoing Offshore Technology Conference (OTC) in Houston, Texas, U.S with the theme “Africa’s Energy Renaissance: Leveraging Innovation and Natural Gas for Sustainable Development.”
He said that by pooling resources, African countries can invest in large-scale energy projects.
Also, the minister stressed the need for Africa to develop cohesive policies tailored to its unique circumstances, warning that fragmented approaches would be ineffective in addressing the escalating energy deficit.
“This conference is not a jamboree. It is a platform for Nigeria, and by extension, Africa — to showcase its vast potential,” Lokpobiri said.
He underscored the importance of regional collaboration, highlighting the Africa Petroleum Producers Organisation (APPO) as a strategic entity established to devise shared solutions for the continent’s energy challenges.
According to him, the prevailing global discourse on energy transition is largely influenced by geopolitical considerations.
In response to this challenge, he announced that APPO is in the process of establishing the African Energy Bank to bridge funding gaps and ultimately free the continent from energy poverty.
During a meeting with his Ghanaian counterpart, Lokpobiri advised Ghana to draw lessons from Nigeria’s past experiences in the energy sector, particularly in avoiding early missteps.
In his address, Ghana’s Minister of Energy and Green Transition, Mr John Abdullahi, acknowledged Nigeria’s leading role in the region.
He stated that while Ghana is a relatively new player in the oil and gas sector, it is eager to learn from Nigeria’s experiences and reforms, especially in the areas of local content development and climate policy.
“We will continue to consult Nigeria as we build a successful oil and gas industry. The collaboration between both countries remains strong. For his part, PETAN Chairman Wole Ogunsanya emphasised the significance of Nigeria’s presence at OTC.
He said: “This year’s event, under the Nigerian Pavilion, is set to highlight Africa’s growing role in the global energy sector.
“OTC 2025 promises to bring together top-tier industry leaders, policymakers, and stakeholders at the world’s largest energy event.”
Nigerian Postal Service (NIPOST) has declared July 1, 2025, as the deadline for phasing out cash transactions across all its offices nationwide.
This was disclosed in a statement issued on Monday by Frank Alao, director of Corporate Communications,NIPOST.
The move is part of a broader reform initiative aimed at transforming NIPOST into a more innovative, efficient, and digitally driven organisation.
The management explained that the reforms are aligned with global best practices and tailored to meet the demands of Nigeria’s rapidly evolving digital economy, as well as the Renewed Hope Agenda of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
Alao stated, “We are assuring Nigerians of a revitalised NIPOST that delivers superior service and embraces the future.
“A major highlight of the reform package is the transition to a fully cashless system. Beginning July 1, 2025, all post office counters nationwide will no longer accept cash payments for their services. Customers will be required to use approved electronic channels for all transactions.
“This is a crucial step in our modernization journey, one that ensures safer, faster, and more transparent service delivery.”
The Presidency has faulted claim of Akinwumi Adesina, president, African Development Bank (AfDB), on the current Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita figures versus the level it was in 1960 when Nigeria attained independence.
Akinwumi Adesina, president, African Development Bank
The outgoing AfDB President had in a recent viral statement claimed that Nigerians are worse off today than in 1960 when Nigeria’s GDP per capita was $1847..
The AfDB President claimed that in contrast to the level of the GDP per capita at Nigeria independence, the country’s current GDP stands at $824 today, a reflection of the current rampant poverty and low human development in the country.
But in a rebuttal of the claim, the presidency, in a statement by Bayo Onanuga, the spokesperson to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu accused the AfDB President of failure to carry out proper research and speaking like a politician in his assertions.
“Adesina spoke like a politician, in the mould of Peter Obi and did not do due diligence before making his unverifiable statement,” the presidency said while faulting the claim of the AfDB President.
While countering the claim of Adesina, the presidency noted in the statement that available data indicated that Nigeria’s GDP was $4.2 billion in 1960, and per capita income for a population of 44.9 million was $93, not even one hundred dollars.
“Our country’s GDP did not rise remarkably until the 1970s, when crude earnings ballooned. In 1970, our GDP rose to $12.55 billion. In 1975, it was $27.7 billion, $64.2 billion in 1980, and $164 billion in 1981. Up until 1980, per capita income did not exceed $880. It rose to $2187 in 1981 and dropped to $1844 in 1982. In 2014, after rebasing, it reached an all-time high of $3,200.
“These facts raise questions about the source of Dr Adesina’s figures,” Onanuga said.
However, the presidency also faulted the AfDB President, a former Nigerian Minister of Agriculture of making inferences on the state of poverty or human development in Nigeria solely based on the GPD per capita numbers. .
“Dr Adesina should know that GDP per capita is not the only criterion used to determine whether people live better lives now than in the past. Indeed, it is a poor tool for assessing living standards.
“Its primary usefulness is in giving us the metrics to compare economic output in a country or between countries.
“GDP masks many activities in a country’s economy. It neither discloses wealth distribution or income inequality nor accounts for the informal economy, which experts have said is enormous. It does not account for subsistence farming or income transfer from one family member to another,” the presidency said.
The Presidency also noted that GDP per capita is not reflective of the fact that Nigerians in 2025 have better access to healthcare, education, and transportation, such as rail and air transport, than in 1960.
“This premise alone suggests why Dr Adesina should not have arrived at his conclusion.
“Compared with 1960, Nigeria today has more primary, secondary, and tertiary schools.
“We have more road networks and more medical facilities, private and public. We have phenomenal access to telephones.
“At Independence, we had 18,724 operational phone lines for a population of about 45 million. Over 200 million Nigerians now enjoy near-universal access to mobile phones and digital services, indicating we are better off today than 65 years ago.”
Furthermore, the presidency noted that Nigerian policymakers know that whatever GDP figure NBS publishes may not capture our economy’s full depth and breadth as it usually excludes the greater part of the informal economy, which some pundits have said may even be more significant than the formal economy.
“This underscores why Dr. Adesina should have considered all aspects of our economy before concluding.”
“When Vodacom, a telecommunications company, considered entering the Nigerian market in 1999 or 2000, its consultants, using the available GDP metrics, advised against it.
“They believed that Nigerians were too poor to afford GSM services. However, MTN and other companies that entered the market later proved them wrong, demonstrating that GDP figures alone do not provide a complete picture of a country’s economic potential or the living standards of its people.
“MTN and other adventurers came later, and they laughed all the way to the bank. More than 20 years later, they are still laughing despite some setbacks in 2023 and 2024. In its first-quarter results this year, MTN declared revenue of N1 trillion and an increase of 8.2 percent in subscriptions, which took the number of its voice and data users to 84 million. Does this MTN experience correlate with a country worse off than in 1960, when we had analogue telephones and the number of lines was fewer than 20,000?
“No objective observer can claim that Nigeria has not made progress since 1960. Today, as we await the NBS’s recalibration of our GDP, we can comfortably say without contradiction that it is at least 50 times, if not 100 times, more than it was at Independence.”
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