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Austin’s Five Forces Model for Analysing Sustainable Development
By Austin Okere
The sustainability challenge is becoming clearer. Being a Consultant at the Sustainable Development Goals, Africa Centre (SDGCA) in Rwanda and on the Global Agenda Council of the World Economic Forum (WEF) has exposed me to the global framework for economic growth that protects the fundamental pillars of humanity and the planet.
The SDGs are about People, Planet, Prosperity and Peace – and about driving development in an inclusive way that leaves no one behind. These tenets were further reinforced through my interview with Professor Paul Romer, Nobel Laureate, and former Chief Economist at the World Bank.
I see Five Forces driving sustainable growth as follows – Organizations, Population, Enablers, Infrastructure, and the Socio-Political Environment. I have codified below, the relation between these forces in the in a model which I call the Austin’s Five Forces Model for analyzing Sustainable Development.
Below are the Five Forces and how they impact sustainability:
- Organisations – providing jobs for the population for shared prosperity
- Population – a large social group subject to the same political authority and dominant cultural expectations. This is the source of skilled labour to the organisation and who in turn contribute to the welfare of society
- Enablers – institutions and mechanisms necessary for supporting efficient and equitable pursuance of opportunities in the society. They may include regulation, education, healthcare, and technology among others
- Infrastructure – the basic physical and organizational structures and facilities needed for the operation of a society or enterprise. They include housing, ports, roads, power, and communication
- Social-Pollical Environment – the central values of society, politics, culture and public opinion, as well as the assurance of security and the adherence to rule of law that governs the society
ORGANISATIONS
At the heart of providing jobs is the organisation, public, private, start-ups and non-governmental.
A commonly held truism is that government alone cannot provide all jobs and is not big enough to shoulder the entire economy. Take Nigeria for example, in real terms, government spending at 5.7% of GDP (2019) means non-government economic activity accounts for almost all of GDP (about 95%). Among OECD economies, business activity accounts for 72 percent of GDP with monetary flows from labour income, capital income, taxes, investment in capital assets, and payments to suppliers. It is this crucial force that needs to be enabled to unleash economic growth.
In many economies, 80% of the jobs are provided by entrepreneurs. They are responsible for most of the advances in new products and processes, provide most of the employment opportunities and are a key indicator of the overall performance of an economy.
In Nigeria, while there are only about 161 companies listed on the Stock Exchange, the total number of MSMEs as of 2019 stood at 41.5m according to the National Bureau of statistics. Just imagine the scale of jobs that will be created if each of these businesses is empowered to employ just only one additional person.
POPULATION
A developing society is based on the ideal by which equality of opportunity is available to any member, allowing the highest aspirations and goals to be achieved. While society in the past was split between the haves and have nots, society today is split more into those who are included and those left behind.
This inequality is more significant in emerging markets, where 80% of the world reside. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the unemployment rate in Nigeria is 32.6%, while the youth unemployment rate (15-24 years) in 2020 was 58.3%.
Young people who cannot find jobs still need to eat. With few legitimate options, illegal means become attractive.
Research has shown that youth unemployment increases all sorts of crime. It is estimated that by 2050, Africa’s population will double, reaching 2.5b people – just about the current combined population of India and China. Without a credible plan towards sustainable employment, this could be a ticking bomb.
What is more worrisome is that while the population grew at a rate of 2.6%, the GDP growth rate was lower at 2.2% in 2019 according to the World Bank.
ENABLERS
Enablers are institutions and mechanisms which remove economic blockages and open economic arteries. Anything that enhances economic activity to a community will culminate in an economic driver for the society. Regulators are one of the most critical enablers of a society.
Regulators, however, tend to be either a source of support or a headwind against progress. The regulator should not constrict the pursuit of opportunity nor act in a manner to entrench protectionism.
While Nigeria has become one of the world’s fastest-growing technology markets, attracting investments of over $216m in the first quarter of 2021 alone, there is a palpable apprehension among technology start-ups, after a series of regulatory headwinds from different government bodies.
These include the Central bank of Nigeria’s ban on cryptocurrency trading and the Security and Exchanges Commission’s clampdown on technology platforms for purchasing shares in foreign companies outside the Commission’s regulatory purview and registration.
Until more people think they can successfully start businesses and prosper, we will not have enough jobs in the economy. Other significant enablers are health and education. On the supply side for jobs, the education system needs to be set up so that people leaving, either at the secondary or university level have employable skills.
The most significant enabler in modern times is the Technology Platform. These Platforms provide a means of significantly extending services at low-cost efficiencies, and as a result draw many people into the consumption pool, while also creating many jobs along the value chain which would otherwise simply not exist. Technology Platforms have heralded an era of unprecedented inclusiveness.
For instance, MPESA the popular payment system had more than 60% of Kenya’s 33 million mobile users and in 2015 transacted $28m on her platform. Similar applications have metamorphosed across Africa, and Mobile Money services are today generating 6.7% of Africa’s GDP.
Platforms have made it possible to reach far more than our traditional schools can cater to, by leveraging Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs). Research and Markets forecast that e-learning will grow to $325 Billion by 2025 from $107b in 2015.
The Covid-19 pandemic has severely tested many sovereign health systems, and many have been found significantly wanting.
INFRASTRUCTURE
Infrastructure speaks to facilities needed for the operation of a society, and includes power, ports, transportation, communication, housing, and not least, broadband to homes and offices. This has now become imperative due to the increase in digital transformation, largely driven by the Covid-19 pandemic. A lack of these will severely constrict the smooth production and delivery of goods and services.
By 2050, the infrastructure needed for the 2.5b Africans will be unprecedented in the history of humankind; 700m housing units, 300k schools, and 100k health centres. Can you imagine Africa without a significant network of rail or a functional underground transport system in 2050?
The UK’s Underground Tube system moves 1.35b people annually and has been operating for about 150 years. African Countries such as Ethiopia and Kenya are making strident advances in rail transportation.
The biggest infrastructure drawback, however, has been electricity. Almost half of the people living in Sub-Saharan Africa do not have access to electricity. The attendant impact on entrepreneurship can only be imagined. If Africa were able to achieve in power what she has achieved in telecoms the impact on sustainable development would be immense.
SOCIO-POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT
Nothing impacts sustainable growth as much as a stable socio-political environment. it enables the attraction of capital for rapid economic development. The rule of law is paramount for a stable polity. Any society that does not abide by some code of conduct whether in public or private matters tends to become chaotic, and virtually ungovernable.
The blind application of the law without regard to status, tribe or creed is what enshrines deterrence. It is the pursuit of deterrence that drives developed countries from sparing any high-ranking members of the society who fall foul of the law, not least their leaders, who are held to a higher account.
When we analyse the conduct of the people from rich and developed countries, we observed that a majority abide by the following principles of life: ethics, integrity, responsibility, the respect of most citizens for the rule of law, pride in their work, the effort to save and invest, and the will to be productive and punctual.
In poorer countries, a small minority follow these basic principles in their daily lives.
A society is not poor because they lack natural resources or because nature is cruel to them, but rather because they lack the right attitude. Conscience is usually thrown out, and justice is on sale to the highest bidder; this is what is known as a market society.
Russian American writer and philosopher, Ayn Rand succinctly sums it up as follows:
“When you see that in order to produce, you need to obtain permission from men who produce nothing – When you see that money is flowing to those who deal, not in goods, but in favours – When you see that men get richer by graft and by pull than by work, and your laws don’t protect you against them, but protect them against you – When you see corruption being rewarded and honesty becoming a self-sacrifice – You may know that your society is doomed.”
According to Yury Fedotov, Executive Director, United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime,
“Corruption represents a major threat to the rule of law and sustainable development the world over. It has a disproportionate, destructive impact on the poor and most vulnerable, but it is also quite simply bad for business.”
The sustainable development of any society depends on where they lie on the spectrum of these critical five forces.
Where does your society lie?
Credits to Professor Michael Porter for the term “Five Forces Model”
Austin Okere is the Founder of CWG Plc, the largest security in the technology sector of the Nigerian Stock Exchange, and Entrepreneur-in-Residence at CBS, New York.
From Naruto to Attack on Titan, cybercriminals are increasingly using anime and other Gen Z favourites as bait. In a new report covering Q2 2024 – Q1 2025, Kaspersky has found over 250,000 cyberattacks disguised as popular anime among other shows and streaming platforms favoured by a younger audience.
To help Gen Z recognise these and other cyber risks, Kaspersky is launching “Case 404” — an interactive cybersecurity game, teaching how to protect their digital lives.
For many members of Generation Z, streaming is more than a pastime, it’s a way of life that provides connection to the characters, worlds and fandoms that define their identity.
From anime to nostalgia-fueled movie marathons, Gen Z’s connection to on-screen worlds runs deep. This unique attachment creates a security paradox: the more emotionally invested the viewer, the easier it is to trick them, and Gen Z’s enthusiasm is proving dangerously exploitable.
This is extremely evident in anime culture. Over 65% of Gen Z regularly watch anime, making them the most anime-engaged generation in history. For our analysis, Kaspersky’s experts selected five popular anime titles among Gen Z: Naruto, One Piece, Demon Slayer, Attack on Titan and Jujutsu Kaisen.
Kaspersky found 251,931 attempts to deliver malware or unwanted files disguised under the names of these anime titles. Cybercriminals are tapping into the trust and affection Gen Z has for these series, often using bait like “exclusive episodes”, “leaked scenes”, or “premium access”.
Among anime titles, Naruto took the top spot, despite first airing more than two decades ago. Over the reported period, it was used as bait in 114,216 attempted attacks. Demon Slayer followed with 44,200 attack attempts.
Its meteoric rise in recent years, amplified by viral moments and a growing global fanbase, made it a natural target for cybercriminals looking to ride the wave of hype. Meanwhile, Attack on Titan — a long-standing favourite — ranked third with 39,433 detected attempts to distribute malicious content.
Apart from anime, Kaspersky also analysed five iconic films and series that continue to resonate with Gen Z: Shrek, Stranger Things, Twilight, Inside Out 2, and Deadpool & Wolverine.
These films and shows alone accounted for 43,302 attack attempts with a pronounced spike in attention to these titles from cybercriminals at the beginning of 2025. This is primarily connected to the rise of attacks on Shrek, with over 36,000 attempts in total and a sharp spike in March 2025, double the monthly average for 2024.
Platforms like Netflix, Amazon Prime Video, Disney+, Apple TV Plus and HBO Max have reshaped movies, series, and anime watching into an immersive, on-demand experience that caters to Gen Z’s love of personalised content and global storytelling. However, this has also created fertile ground for cybercriminals.
Kaspersky detected 96,288 attempts to distribute malicious or unwanted files disguised as the names of these major streaming platforms. Unlike seasonal trends, streaming platforms offer a continuous flow of content, from highly anticipated premieres to hidden gems that viewers discover months or even years after release.
When examining which streaming services were most frequently used by cybercriminals, Netflix stood out by far, involved in 85,679 attack attempts and associated with over 2.8 million phishing pages imitating its branding.
Cybercriminals take advantage of the constant traffic, broad global reach, and frequent subscription-based activity. They mimic login pages, share “free trial” links, or spoof password reset emails with full knowledge of how central Netflix is to Gen Z’s digital routine.
As Gen Z’s daily life becomes inseparable from streaming platforms, fandom spaces, and social media communities, cyberthreats evolve to mirror their interests. To meet this challenge, Kaspersky has launched an interactive online game, “Case 404”, designed specifically for Gen Z. “Case 404” invites players to become cyber-detectives and solve immersive cybercrime cases.
Through this digital adventure, Kaspersky is not just highlighting risks but empowering Gen Z to develop their mindset and skillset to stay safe in an increasingly vulnerable online world. As a reward for completing the game, participants receive a discount on Kaspersky Premium, giving them trusted tools they need to navigate the digital world safely.
“As the world of entertainment continues to evolve, so do the tactics used by cybercriminals to exploit popular content, whether through fake downloads or fraudulent merchandise offers.
“From beloved anime like Naruto and Demon Slayer to the latest blockbusters like Inside Out 2, scammers have found new ways to take advantage of Gen Z’s affinity for digital culture and streaming platforms. With the rise of these cyberthreats, it’s more important than ever for young users to stay vigilant and understand how to protect themselves online,” comments Vasily Kolesnikov, security expert at Kaspersky.
In total, African countries lost 60 million euros in rejected Schengen visa fees in 2024, analysis from the LAGO Collective has shown.
According to CNN, when Joel Anyaegbu’s application for a Schengen visa to travel to Barcelona was denied late last year, he was surprised but immediately reapplied.
He sent in more documents than were required, including bank statements and proof of property ownership in Nigeria.
He was rejected again.
“The information submitted regarding the justification for the purpose and conditions of the intended stay were not reliable,” read a checklist returned with his passport from the Spanish consulate in Lagos. The 32-year-old gaming consultant said he felt humiliated.
“I had to cancel meetings with partners at the conference I was attending,” he told CNN.
“I emailed the embassy to understand why I was denied but it has not been answered to date.”
Anyaegbu’s was among the 50,376 short-stay Schengen visa applications rejected in Nigeria last year, nearly half of all submissions, according to newly released data from the European Commission.
Applicants worldwide pay a non-refundable visa fee of 90 euros (about $100), so Nigerians alone lost over 4.5 million euros (about $5 million) seeking permission to travel to the 29 European countries that make up the Schengen Area.
In total, African countries lost 60 million euros ($67.5 million) in rejected Schengen visa fees in 2024, analysis from the LAGO Collective showed.
The London-based research and arts organization has been monitoring data on European short-term visas since 2022 and said Africa is the continent worst affected by the cost of visa rejections.
“The poorest countries in the world pay the richest countries in the world money for not getting visas,” its founder Marta Foresti told CNN.
“As in 2023, the poorer the country of application, the higher the rejection rates. African countries are disproportionately affected with rejection rates as high as 40-50% for countries like Ghana, Senegal and Nigeria.”
She says this proves “inbuilt discrimination and bias” in the process.
A European Commission spokesperson told CNN that member states consider visa applications on a case-by-case basis.
“Each file is assessed by experienced decision-makers on its own merits, in particular regarding the purpose of stay, sufficient means of subsistence, and the applicants’ will to return to their country of residence after a visit to the EU,” the spokesperson said via email.
Africans have long complained about inconsistent, sometimes baffling decisions about who gets approved or denied while applying for European visas.
Cameroonian Jean Mboulé was born in France but when he applied for a visa in 2022 alongside his wife using similar documents, his application was rejected but hers was not.
“At the time she was unemployed but with a South African passport. She had no income but received a visa on the back of my financial statement,” he told CNN.
“But the embassy said they refused my application because my documents were fake, and they weren’t sure I would come back to South Africa, where I am a permanent resident, if I went to France.”
The 39-year-old regional executive took legal action in French courts and won, forcing the French embassy in Johannesburg to grant his visa and pay him a fine of 1,200 euros.
He told an administrative tribunal in the French city of Nantes that the embassy’s decision to deny him a visa was “tainted by insufficient reasoning.”
Mboulé pointed out that he had provided sufficient guarantees that he would return at the end of his trip to his wife and daughter in South Africa where he owns a building. After he got the visa, he chose to go to Mauritius instead as he didn’t want to spend his money in France.
The EU said its member states consider visa applications on a case-by-case basis.
The Cameroonian’s case is unique as many Africans denied Schengen visas rarely appeal or contest the decisions in court.
Like Anyaegbu, the Nigerian gaming consultant, they often reapply, losing more money in the process.
Mboulé has travelled several times to the UK and other African countries but was still denied twice for Schengen.
“The financial cost of rejected visas is just staggering; you can think of them as ‘reverse remittances,’ money flowing from poor to rich countries, which we never hear about,” the LAGO Collective’s Foresti says.
Schengen visa fees increased from 80 to 90 euros in July 2024, making it even more expensive for the world’s poorest applicants.
But South African management lecturer Sikhumbuzo Maisela said the visa rejection rates for Africans were lower than he expected.
“The visa vetting process seems to be shaped less by outright prejudice and more by historical patterns of behaviour,” he told CNN via email.
“Western countries have had instances where visa holders overstayed or violated terms, and this has influenced how future applications are scrutinized.”
IFC, a member of the World Bank Group, has partnered with Standard Chartered to bolster local currency financing for private enterprises in emerging markets.
Standard Chartered will provide local currency loans to IFC in selected markets, which IFC will subsequently on-lend to private-sector projects.
The inaugural transaction under this collaboration is a loan of 9 billion Kenyan shillings (equivalent to approximately 70 million US dollars) to IFC, which will support the advancement of digital infrastructure in Kenya.
“With exchange rate volatility and rising debt pressures the need for local currency financing in emerging markets has become increasingly evident. When businesses borrow in the same currency as their revenues, they can concentrate on growth instead of exchange rate fluctuations,” said John Gandolfo, IFC Vice President and Treasurer, Treasury & Mobilization. “As we increase our local currency financing abilities, we plan to replicate this facility in other currencies across the globe.”
Sunil Kaushal, Global Co-Head, Corporate & Investment Banking, and CEO, ASEAN and South Asia markets, Standard Chartered said: “This landmark transaction in Kenya reflects our commitment to supporting financial resilience in local markets.
By partnering with IFC, we’re delivering local currency solutions that help corporates in emerging markets manage currency volatility and access the long-term capital they need to grow. With our deep roots and liquidity access across emerging markets, we are well positioned to scale this initiative and enable more businesses to access stable financing options.”
Kariuki Ngari, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, Kenya and Africa, Standard Chartered said: “This partnership represents a pivotal step forward in enhancing Africa’s financial resilience. By facilitating local currency financing, we not only address one of the most significant challenges facing the businesses across the continent – exchange rate vitality – but also open up new avenues for long term economic growth.
Kenya’s digital infrastructure sector is particularly well positioned to benefit from this inaugural transaction, setting the stage for scalable and sustainable financing solutions. These models will drive economic growth and empower local enterprises supporting prosperity across Africa.”
Exchange rate volatility presents a risk for companies that borrow in hard currency, such as the US dollar, but get paid in local currency.
Many local companies in emerging markets lack the capacity to effectively manage these currency risks. Therefore, securing local currency financing at competitive rates with flexible features is increasingly important to meet the growing need for diverse financing options among local companies.
IFC has increased its collaboration with global, regional and local banks to provide more local currency financing to clients. The organization has offered local currency products—such as loans and bonds, structured finance products, and risk-management solutions since the early 1990s.
Between FY15 and FY24, IFC committed local currency senior debt financing of over $30 billion US dollars in 67 local currencies through loans and bonds, structured products, and risk-management solutions.
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