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Crude Oil: A Sudden Tumble

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The major headline-catching storyline throughout the latter half of 2014 and even the opening week of 2015 has been the dramatic plummet in oil prices, with Crude having declined by around 50% since last June.

Concerns over an oversupply of oil in the markets encouraged bearish pressure, while heightened anxiety over global economic health inspired fears that there would be less demand for the commodity and further elevated anxiety regarding there being an oversupply in the markets.

This encouraged further downside movement, while the OPEC decision not to cut production last November went on to inspire the commodity to conclude the year around five-year lows.

There was some optimism that the oil markets had found a floor when the selling paused around Christmas, but it was always expected that this was just a small consolidation while traders took a break over the holiday.

I was also curious that the consolidation could have been a preparation for the next leg lower, which proved to be the case.

As 2015 has commenced, the decline in oil prices has resumed with Crude already losing a further $5 from its valuation.

Traders have become increasingly aware regarding the current economic conditions being strictly against the commodity, where the heavily-weighted supply and demand equation has only had one outcome: further declines for oil and economic conditions so heavily against a comeback that even the most risky of investors are being eliminated from considering purchasing.

Despite the bears completely dominating and squeezing as much as they can to squash prices, there remains optimism that Crude can rebound back towards $70.

I question the potential for this because the OPEC decision not to cut production in November basically suggested that the committee group were no longer in control of the oil markets, and confirmed a longer-term bearish outlook for oil.

A rebound would be dependent on OPEC reversing its decision against cutting production and with prices already crashing down below $50, this appears unlikely as well. Could OPEC reverse its decision in the future? Perhaps.

However, traders will continue to price in as many declines as possible beforehand. Furthermore, oil inventories are increasing on what appears to be a weekly basis and it would require a significant cut in production, otherwise inventories will just creep back up to the same levels where there is another oversupply.

Additionally a rebound would also likely be dependent on increased demand for the commodity but with global economic health concerns being so elevated, this is hard to envisage.

It appears highly likely that global growth concerns will continue throughout the first quarter in 2015.

This would more likely lead to further anxiety over reduced demand for the commodity, and encourage bearish pressure.

Economic data from China is also highly important, due to the world’s second-largest economy being the largest importer of oil. It is no coincidence at all that in the hours following China’s worst PMI manufacturing decline of the year, pressure resumed in the oil markets.

It is also worth noting that Crude is priced in USD and towards the middle of 2015, the overwhelming majority expect the Federal Reserve to begin raising US interest rates.

This will lead to an aggressive USD rally, while spelling further bad news for commodities and metals.

The Fed raising rates will pressure Crude and as long as the Fed raises rates as planned towards the middle of next year, the commodity will face a further downside risk.

Overall, there are just so many economic conditions being against a comeback that it makes it difficult to believe one will happen anytime soon.

Can it happen? Sure.

However, it is going to require a combination of greatly reduced concerns over an oversupply in the markets, and global economic optimism raising demand, for oil to wake up the bulls. Getting these two factors to collaborate at the same time might also be tricky.

The technicals currently paint an extremely depressing picture for Crude Oil, to the point where the price has tumbled so rapidly that no technical patterns can even be found.

We have already crashed through psychological support around $70, $63, $57, $52 and $47.

The $42 area is widely seen as the next big test and if we extend below here, it is going to require some time for the prices to even find a floor, let alone any type of rebound back towards $70.

Jameel Ahmad is the chief market analyst at Forex Time (FXTM).


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NIMC Sets 48-hour Deadline for Diaspora Partners to Activate New Licences

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The National Identity Management Commission (NIMC) has given its Diaspora Front-End Partners (FEPs) 48 hours to obtain and activate their National Identification Number (NIN) enrolment licences on its newly upgraded diaspora enrolment platform.

The commission said the deadline followed the successful completion of a major upgrade aimed at improving the security, efficiency and reliability of NIN registration for Nigerians living abroad.

According to NIMC, the upgraded platform will offer a more seamless and robust service to diaspora applicants, ensuring faster processing and better data protection. To prepare for the transition, all FEPs have been onboarded onto the new system and taken through intensive training to equip them with the knowledge needed for effective management of the platform.

Once compliant partners activate their licences, Nigerians abroad will be able to access NIN enrolment services through them without disruption.

“The Commission apologises for any inconvenience the upgrade process might have caused and has set up a dedicated service team to resolve all issues related to diaspora enrolment,” NIMC said in a statement signed by Dr. Kayode Adegoke, its head of corporate communications.

Diaspora applicants experiencing difficulties have been advised to contact the commission for prompt assistance.

While the new system rolls out overseas, NIN enrolment continues across all centres in Nigeria, with applicants able to locate their nearest centres on the NIMC website. Nigerians at home or abroad can also modify their NIN data via the online self-service portal.

NIMC further encouraged NIN holders to download the NIMC NINAuth App on iOS or Google Play to instantly verify their NIN, control who can access their information, and enjoy secure authentication services.

 


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Why Youth Engagement is Nigeria’s Agricultural Imperative

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By Diana Tenebe, Chief Operating Officer, Foodstuff Store

Nigeria stands at a critical juncture, faced with a demographic reality that is both its greatest asset and a significant challenge. With a population where almost 70% are under the age of 30, the nation’s future is undeniably in the hands of its youth.

Yet, the agricultural sector, the traditional backbone of the economy, is in a state of crisis, with an aging farming population and a notable disinterest from the younger generation. This disconnect poses a serious threat to our food security, economic stability, and long-term sustainable development. To navigate this, Nigeria must embark on a deliberate and multi-faceted mission to transform agriculture from a career of last resort into a dynamic, profitable, and respected profession for its youth.

The perception of farming as a life of drudgery, poverty, and limited opportunity is deeply ingrained in the minds of many young Nigerians. This is not without reason. The sector is often associated with backbreaking labor, outdated methods, and significant financial risk. The lack of access to land, credit, and modern technology creates a formidable barrier to entry, pushing aspiring young people towards often non-existent or poorly paid urban jobs. This exodus from rural areas exacerbates the issue, leaving an agricultural sector in need of fresh ideas and a renewed workforce.

To reverse this trend, we must begin by transforming the very image of agriculture. Education is the key. Integrating agriculture, food, and nutrition into the national curriculum from primary school upwards can fundamentally change how young people view the sector. By making it a compulsory subject in secondary schools, we can equip students with practical knowledge and foster an appreciation for the vast opportunities within the food system. School gardens and ‘Farm to School’ initiatives can provide hands-on experience, connecting young minds with the processes of food production and the rewards of a healthy community. By promoting farming as a business, not just a means of subsistence, we can highlight its potential for profitability and professionalism.

Crucially, young Nigerians need to see that success in agriculture is not just possible, but a reality. Showcasing successful young farmers and agripreneurs through media campaigns, documentaries, and digital platforms like Agribusiness TV can provide powerful role models. These stories of innovation, resilience, and financial success can inspire a new generation to reconsider their career paths. Peer-to-peer learning, where successful young farmers share their evidence-based success, is an effective way to demonstrate the viability of modern agricultural practices and encourage others to follow suit.

Beyond changing perceptions, we must address the tangible barriers to entry. Access to finance is paramount. Innovative funding models, including grants, subsidies, and venture capital funds specifically for young agricultural entrepreneurs, can ease the initial burden of starting an agribusiness. Policy reforms that simplify land acquisition and promote cooperative farming models are essential to ensure young people have access to the resources they need. Furthermore, providing training in technical, business, and financial literacy will empower them to develop robust business plans and attract investment.

Perhaps the most potent tool for attracting Nigeria’s tech-savvy youth is technology itself. Modern agriculture is a far cry from the old-school image of a farmer with a hoe. Digital technologies, from mobile apps that provide real-time market prices to blockchain for product traceability, can connect young farmers directly to markets and streamline their operations. The introduction of technologies like hydroponics, aquaponics, and automated farm machinery not only reduces drudgery but also offers attractive, quick-return opportunities. By promoting agri-tech startups and establishing ICT training centers for rural youth, we can position agriculture as a hub of innovation.

The government has a vital role to play in fostering an enabling environment. Initiatives like the National Young Farmers Scheme and partnerships such as the one between the Federal Government and Niger State to empower 100,000 youths are commendable steps. Continued public investment, alongside the involvement of youth in policy dialogue, will signal a genuine commitment to their future in the sector.

Engaging Nigeria’s youth in agriculture is not merely an option—it is a national imperative. By transforming perception, enhancing access to resources, and leveraging technology, we can unlock their immense potential, ensuring a sustainable and prosperous future for the entire nation. The time to act is now.


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Kuwait Busts Nigerian Cybercrime Ring Targeting Telecom Tower, Banks

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Kuwait’s Criminal Security Sector has dismantled an international cybercrime ring composed of Nigerians responsible for coordinated attacks on telecommunications towers and banks, the Ministry of Interior announced on Sunday.

Kuwait Busts Nigerian Cybercrime Ring Targeting Telecom Tower, Banks

According to Arabic-language daily Al Qabas, the case was initiated after the Communication and Information Technology Regulatory Authority reported cyber intrusions targeting local telecom networks.

Specialised security teams quickly launched an investigation, discovering that the suspects used advanced electronic devices to breach networks and distribute mass phishing messages impersonating banks, aiming to steal account information and siphon funds.

Signal-tracking technology led investigators to a vehicle in the Salmiya area.

When authorities attempted to stop the vehicle, the driver tried to flee, colliding with several cars before being apprehended following a fierce struggle.

A search of the vehicle uncovered sophisticated electronic equipment and various technical tools.

Upon investigation, the suspect confessed to collaborating with an accomplice to hack telecom networks and send fraudulent messages posing as banks and telecommunications companies.

Police subsequently located and arrested the second suspect, and a search of their residence uncovered additional devices used to analyse the stolen data.

Both suspects, along with the seized equipment, have been handed over to the relevant authorities for prosecution.

The Ministry of Interior reaffirmed its commitment to protecting the nation’s cybersecurity and intensifying efforts to combat electronic fraud targeting both citizens and residents.


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