Expect 80% Mobile Data Subscription Growth in Five Years- VDT

Based on the global trends and Nigeria’s antecedents, one of the most significant projection is that there would be 80% mobile data subscription growth in the next five years, said Mr. Biodun Omoniyi, managing director and chief executive officer of VDT Communications.

He made the projection during a presentation at special reception organised by the Association of Telecommunication Companies of Nigeria (ATCON) in honour of Professor Umar Danbatta, executive vice chairman of the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC).

Omoniyi said that the forecast presents a lot of opportunities for investment and benefits to the industry players and to the country at large.

As reported on 26th September, 2016, the most current data on broadband penetration in Nigeria was provided by the EVC himself.

He stated that broadband penetration in Nigeria has reached 20.95% while internet penetration has reached 47.44%, second only to South Africa in the continent.

“With this feat, meeting the 30% broadband penetration target by 2018 looks quite feasible.

Highlights of the current performance indices, provide a strong pedestal for projecting into the future of the Nigerian Telecom industry in the next 5years,” he noted.

A global expert in world population data, Worldometers puts the current Nigerian population at 188,174,929 (September, 2016) and projects a population of 206,830,983 in the year, 2020.

“In view of a projected population of about 207 million in 2020, it is safe to project Voice subscriber base of 33% increase or about 200million subscribers in the next 5years,” Omoniyi said.

He said, however, for mobile broadband data, exponential growth will be sustained. It is not far-fetched to project 80% mobile data subscription from the current 92million to 166million within the next 5years.

According to the VDT MD/CEO, more defunct ISP’s will be revived to take advantage of the growing opportunity as increase in the number of new entrants into the broadband communications sub-sector cannot be ruled out.

He said the industry will witness significant increase on investment in broadband communication; “Increase in wireless network infrastructure and investment; cloud and IOT services will be consolidated; e-Commerce including e-payment will be on the upward swing with many innovative applications and offering and M2M applications especially in the health and automobile sectors will be on the rise”.

The accumulative effects of all these occurrences in the industry, he said, will bring the overall benefits of development in telecommunications to bear on Nigeria as a nation.

But, the expected desirable occurrences in the industry will not be without some undesirable challenges, which Omoniyi listed as including electricity power supply: “Though a significant improvement is expected in the industry, this is likely to still pose a challenge; poor service quality/congestion; regulatory challenges- especially for the new entrants and innovative service offerings and manpower: With industry growth and new offerings come the challenges of well trained manpower”.

Nigerian telecom industry current performance indices [july,2015 to june 2016] shows the current subscribers’ base of 150,660,631, with teledensity standing at 107.61.

Also, MTN leads the market with 39% share of the market; Glo 24%, Airtel 21% and Etisalat 15%; while 99.5% of the market is dominated by GSM.

“There is market shift in favour of Data compared to Voice. Out of the total subscriber base of 150,660,631, while 92,181,178 representing 61% use mobile internet and this is expected to continue on the upward swing.  

“The next five years in the Nigerian Telecom industry will witness tremendous growth, especially in the data segment of the market. This is bound to give rise to several rewarding opportunities in the industry, however with accompanying challenges.

He said that at VDT, they have made efforts to position ourselves to reduce the impact of the challenges while taking advantage of the emerging opportunities.

Through adequate preparation and readiness, you too can put your organization at a vantage position to manage the challenges and exploit the highly rewarding opportunities that will occur in the industry in the next five years.