E-Financial
FBNQuest Research sees Modest GDP Growth for Nigeria
After slipping into its second recession in 5 years, Nigeria’s economy is projected to expand by 2.0% in 2021 on the back of a modest fiscal stimulus and targeted private investment.
This is the view of the Research team at FBNQuest and was a key talking point during the Leading Conversations with FBNQuest webinar hosted by the firm to elaborate on its 2021 Outlook report published earlier this month.
With the theme “Tentative emergence from the shadow of COVID-19”, the outlook report captured the firm’s view on the Nigerian economy, socio-political environment and traditional asset classes (fixed income and equities) against the backdrop of the economic contraction that followed the COVID-19 pandemic which started last year.
The report notes that the second term of Nigeria’s President, Muhammadu Buhari, has been “hijacked” by COVID-19, with a sharp decline in oil prices and unprecedented lockdowns spurring a recession in 2020.
However, Nigeria’s government, unlike its counterparts in many advanced economies, has limited ammunition to catalyse a robust recovery in 2021. The report also highlights that the combined monetary and fiscal stimulus amounts to just 4% of GDP, compared to over 10% of GDP in large economies such as Brazil, Turkey, the United States, Canada, and Japan.
As Nigeria comes to grips with the challenges brought about by COVID-19, the report cites the speedy passage of the federal budget for the second year in a row and the end of fuel subsidy payments as positive reforms.
However, the insecurity in many parts of the country and the slow pace of oil sector legislative reforms were recognised as negatives for an economy desperate for strong and inclusive growth.
Nevertheless, FBNQuest expects low interest rates in the United States and an average Bonny Light Crude price of US$56 per barrel to support Nigeria’s economic recovery in 2021. In addition to fiscal stimulus and private-sector investment, the report identifies financial technology, agriculture, and ICT as primary drivers of growth in 2021.
With regards to asset prices, FBNQuest projects another positive year for equities in 2021. The research team notes that lower yields and the elevated liquidity available to domestic institutions buoyed stocks in 2020.
The impact of lower rates is expected to carry over into 2021, albeit with less dramatic impact, as domestic institutions are swayed by dividend yield offered by bank stocks. A number of non-financial stocks such as Seplat, Flour Mills, Nestle Nigeria and UAC of Nigeria are also expected to outperform in 2021.
FBNQuest projects that the NSE All Share Index will rise 20% in 2021, while in the fixed income market, yields are projected to rise by 3 percentage points to 10% to 11% on most bonds by the end of the year.
According to the firm, however these comments are not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any stocks, as the report only seeks to present projections based on analyses.
On the exchange rate, the FBNQuest view is that a combination of higher oil revenue, multilateral loans and Eurobond sales should underpin reserves this year and allow the CBN to contain NGN exchange-rate depreciation. The forecast for average I&E/NAFEX rate is NGN419 per USD at end-2021.
E-Financial
CBN to Penalize Banks for Failing to Address ATM Cash Shortages
Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has warned that it will impose severe penalties on banks failing to address the ongoing cash scarcity at automated teller machines (ATMs).
Olayemi Cardoso, the CBN governor, issued the warning during the annual Bankers’ Dinner hosted by the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria (CIBN) on Friday.
The cash crunch has drawn public attention, with some Nigerians taking to X on November 13 to express frustrations over empty ATMs and reliance on point-of-sale (POS) operators. Two days later, the CBN directed banks to prioritise ATM cash disbursements and cautioned that penalties would be imposed on those enabling currency hawking.
“We also recognise the ongoing challenges with cash availability at ATMs, which disproportionately affect ordinary Nigerians,” Cardoso said. “To address this, we are conducting spot checks across deposit money banks, and we will impose penalties on underperforming institutions.”
The CBN governor announced measures to empower customers, starting December 1, 2024. “Customers are encouraged to report any difficulties with withdrawing cash from bank branches or ATMs directly to the CBN through designated phone numbers and email addresses for their respective states.
Guidelines will be distributed widely to raise public awareness. We will also urge full regulatory compliance by all stakeholders, including mobile money operators and POS agents, to promote digital transaction channels and improve service delivery.”
Cardoso reiterated that financial institutions engaging in malpractices or sabotage would face severe consequences.
“The CBN will continue to maintain a robust cash offering to meet the country’s needs, particularly during high-demand periods such as the festive season and year-end.”
On foreign exchange (FX) matters, Cardoso highlighted Nigeria’s missed opportunity for N6.2 trillion in potential revenue due to a less flexible FX regime.
“These funds could have significantly contributed to critical investments in education, healthcare, and infrastructure development,” he said.
The governor added that the apex bank is committed to rebuilding Nigeria’s economic resilience through targeted reforms. These include prioritising domestic refining capacity, promoting non-oil exports, and advancing technological innovations in the financial sector.
E-Financial
CBN Fines 29 Banks N15Bn for Violation of Money Laundering, Terrorism Financing Regulations
Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has said penalties totaling N15 billion were imposed on 29 banks for violations of Anti-Money Laundering (AML) and Counter-Terrorism Financing (CTF) regulations.
This was disclosed by Olayemi Cardoso, CBN governor, during the 2024 Bankers’ Night organised by the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria (CIBN) in Lagos.
In his remarks, Cardoso stressed the gravity of these violations and stressed the need for the affected banks to address the systemic weaknesses that allowed such lapses to occur.
“In addition to these penalties, the banks are required to address the root causes of the lapses, which is crucial for improving regulatory effectiveness. Historically, the industry has struggled with recurring issues, but we are confident that this approach will help change that narrative,” Cardoso stated.
The Broader Implications of Compliance
The CBN governor highlighted the broader impact of compliance on the financial ecosystem, noting that institutions that prioritise regulatory adherence contribute to national growth and stability.
“A bank that prioritises compliance does more than protect itself -it strengthens the entire financial ecosystem. It directs financial resources toward growth, innovation, and prosperity rather than crime and corruption. Together, we must exceed standards, demonstrating to the public and the world that we are stewards of integrity and trust,” he added.
Cardoso also pointed out that the consequences of non-compliance extend beyond regulatory penalties. According to him, issues such as money laundering, fraud, and corruption undermine the foundation of the financial system.
“The cost of inaction is profound—fraud undermines confidence, corruption erodes trust, and money laundering perpetuates organized crime,” he remarked.
The governor articulated a vision for a robust compliance culture across Nigeria’s banking industry. He emphasised that financial institutions must not only comply with regulatory standards but also adopt a proactive approach to identifying and mitigating risks.
Cardoso explained that executives and boards must lead by example by making compliance a strategic priority and championing zero tolerance for breaches—not just in policy but in practice. He urged financial institutions to anticipate vulnerabilities and address risks in high-risk areas proactively.
He also called for the education of staff to recognise red flags and report concerns about fraud, money laundering, or unethical behavior, ensuring they are protected when they do so.
Additionally, he stressed the importance of conducting enhanced due diligence for high-risk clients, politically exposed persons, and vendors to prevent illicit funds from flowing through financial institutions.
The governor emphasised the need for industry-wide collaboration to combat systemic threats. This includes sharing intelligence on emerging risks, cooperating with law enforcement agencies, and maintaining open communication with regulators.
Cardoso acknowledged the challenges facing the sector, from cybersecurity threats to disparities in financial inclusion. However, he expressed optimism that with strengthened compliance frameworks, the Nigerian banking industry could address these challenges effectively.
Reflecting on the broader implications, he said, “Compliance is not just a regulatory requirement; it is central to our mission of fostering trust and integrity within the financial system. Together, we can build an industry that not only meets but exceeds global standards.”
Credit: Business Day
E-Financial
DBN Bags Financial Inclusion Award for Dedication to MSMEs
The Development Bank of Nigeria (DBN) has been honoured with the Financial Inclusion Leadership Award for its dedication to empowering Nigerian Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) through accessible financing.
DBN was honored with the award at the ‘Champions of Inclusion Nigeria Financial Inclusion Awards’ during the International Financial Inclusion Conference (IFIC) 2024, hosted by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) in partnership with the World Bank.
Tony Okpanachi, DBN’s managing director/CEO, expressed pride in winning the award, stating that it validated the bank’s dedication to providing financial access to Nigerian MSMEs.
“We are honoured to receive the Financial Inclusion Leadership Award, which is a testament to our bank’s commitment to expanding access to financial services for all Nigerians. This award recognises our efforts to bridge the financial inclusion gap, particularly for a priority sector like the MSMEs,” he stated.
Okpanachi noted that the award was a validation of the bank’s strategic focus geared towards financial inclusion for small businesses, “and we are proud to be at the forefront of this initiative that drives that. We will continue to innovate and expand our financial inclusion programmes, ensuring that more Nigerian small and startup businesses have access to services.”
Bonaventure Okhaimo, chief operating officer of the Bank, while receiving the award on behalf of DBN, appreciated the organisers for the recognition, describing it as a significant milestone.
Okhaimo said the recognition was a significant milestone that proved the dedication of the bank to drive economic growth and create wider opportunities for MSMEs.
The COO stated further, “This award will motivate us to continue pushing the boundaries of financial inclusion, exploring more innovative solutions and partnerships to expand our reach and impact. We are committed to ensuring that more small businesses and startup enterprises in Nigeria have access to financial services, this award will further inspire us to accelerate our efforts in this regard.”
The Financial Inclusion Leadership Award is a key highlight of the International Financial Inclusion Conference (IFIC) and celebrates exceptional contributions to actions aimed at achieving the goals outlined in Nigeria’s National Financial Inclusion Strategy 3.0.
The award recognizes organizations and individuals across various sectors who are driving meaningful dialogue, and broadening access to financial services for low-income excluded priority segments, including the MSMEs sector, with inadequate funding being one of the challenges that inhibit the growth of small businesses in the country.
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