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Foreign Investors Want More Naira Devaluation
International investors, dismayed by Nigeria’s decision to delay a naira devaluation they see as long overdue, will hold back from its stock and bond markets, raising risks of a deeper crisis in Africa’s biggest economy.
Reuters reported that the afterglow from March, when an incumbent president handed over power after what was seen as Nigeria’s freest ever election, is dissipating as new leader Muhammadu Buhari shows little sign of following up on promises of economic reform.
Markets have moved sharply in the past week in particular after the central bank announced curbs on dollar funding for investors, as well as for importers of goods ranging from toothpicks to private jets.
The move, meant to conserve foreign exchange, has dashed widely-held expectations of a naira devaluation – the central reform that investors had been banking on.
Since then 10-year bond yields have jumped 1 percentage point to almost 15 percent, stocks have fallen and the naira’s value is plunging in the parallel market, down about 7 percent from early-June levels.
According to Reuters, a devaluation to restore the economy to competitiveness is a matter of time, fund managers still believe. In the meantime, they are unlikely to bring back cash they pulled out before the election.
“It will take a combination of weaker currency and higher interest rates to get us back to Nigeria,” said Kieran Curtis, a bond fund manager at Standard Life Investments.
“When we compare Nigeria to other oil exporters it hasn’t had enough of a currency adjustment.”
With oil exports providing 70 percent of budget revenues, Nigeria can certainly use a cheaper currency. Most had reckoned on a 10-15 percent devaluation at least and some such as Curtis estimate a 20-25 percent move is probably needed.
The naira fell 20 percent in the year to February. Even so its real exchange rate, against currencies of trade partners and adjusted for inflation, is up than 50 percent in the past decade. link.reuters.com/ben53w
In real terms, currencies of oil-exporting peers Russia and Colombia are 5 and 17 percent respectively below long-term averages. African oil producer Angola also recently devalued its kwanza, which is down 15 percent to the dollar this year
And the price for supporting the naira is high – the central bank has spent at least $3.4 billion since fixing the exchange rate in February and reserves have fallen below $30 billion for the first time since 2005. http:link.reuters.com/huf76v
Devaluation expectations continue to mount. Non-deliverable forwards, derivatives used to hedge against future exchange rate moves, reflect expectations of currency weakening: six-month NDFs price the naira at 225 per dollar, while a week ago the forward price was around 215.
“To me, (central bank measures) are doing more harm than good: you are putting off the inevitable and the reaction you are seeing on rates markets and the NDF shows that,” said Kevin Daly, a fund manager at Aberdeen Asset Management.
“Effectively the bond market is starting to price in a much wider move on the currency.”
Curbing access to dollars may briefly stabilise reserves and constrict imports but pent-up demand for hard currency will eventually weaken the exchange rate and drains central bank coffers.
It may also stoke inflation if importers are forced to pay more for dollars. The naira trades at 230 per dollar in the black market, some 14 percent below the official rate.
With oil revenues down and borrowing costs rising, the 2015 budget is already 3.2 percent smaller than last year’s. By early May, the government had already exhausted half its borrowing allowance for the year.
Ten-year yields at almost 15 percent, 250 basis points above post-election lows, will raise borrowing costs for the government and the private sector.
“Ultimately (devaluation) will become more of a fiscal necessity than an external necessity. The longer they will take to do the adjustment, the bigger the adjustment would have to be,” said Antoon de Klerk, portfolio manager at Investec’s African Fixed Income Fund.
And crucially for investment flows, Nigeria’s place in the GBI-EM local currency debt index looks increasingly precarious.
JPMorgan warned in June it could eject Nigeria from its benchmark index by year-end unless it restores liquidity to currency markets in a way that allowed foreign investors to transact with minimal hurdles.
Nigeria has a 1.8 percent share in the $220 billion index, suggesting $4 billion in inflows, Morgan Stanley estimates, a major offset to its current account deficit.
“Were Nigeria to be removed from the index as a result of the dry-up in liquidity as forewarned by the index provider, upside risks to our naira forecast of 200-205 (per dollar) over the next 12 months could crystallise immediately, especially if one considers that its (annual) current account deficit could be up to … $10 billion,” Morgan Stanley said.
China has announced the full implementation of a zero-tariff scheme for 53 African countries, including Nigeria, under the Changsha Declaration, further strengthening economic ties within the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC).
The announcement, made by China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, followed a high-level meeting between Chinese officials and African foreign ministers in Changsha. The initiative stems from commitments made during the 2024 Beijing Summit of FOCAC, which focused on building a stronger China-Africa partnership in a rapidly evolving global landscape.
According to a statement released after the meeting, the representatives of China, 53 African nations, and the African Union Commission affirmed their commitment to creating an “all-weather China-Africa community with a shared future for the new era.”
The declaration highlighted the rising influence of the Global South and underscored the importance of collaboration in advancing development, multilateralism, and equitable global governance. It also criticized growing unilateralism, protectionism, and economic coercion, calling on countries, particularly the United States, to resolve trade disputes through mutual respect and dialogue.
The ministry stressed that African nations face pressing economic and developmental challenges that demand urgent international attention. It urged for increased development assistance, rather than cuts, to support poverty reduction and infrastructure growth across the continent.
In a significant move, China committed to expanding zero-tariff treatment to 100 percent of tariff lines for all 53 African countries with diplomatic relations with Beijing, excluding Eswatini, which has no official diplomatic ties. This will allow greater access for African goods to the Chinese market.
For Africa’s least developed countries, the plan includes enhanced market access measures, streamlined inspection and customs procedures, and increased technical training and trade facilitation.
Additionally, China pledged support for the African Union’s Agenda 2063, with a focus on modernization and sustainable development.
The Chinese government also announced plans to implement the China-Africa Economic Partnership for Shared Development, deepen cooperation in green industries, e-commerce, science and technology, artificial intelligence, finance, and legal frameworks.
The statement also reaffirmed plans to strengthen people-to-people ties, including initiatives like the “2026 Year of People-to-People Exchanges.”
In September 2024, President Bola Tinubu signed five memoranda of understanding during a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Speaking at the Beijing summit, Tinubu described the China-Africa relationship as a “true testament” to the strength of mutual respect and cooperation.
Foreign Affairs Minister Yusuf Tuggar later confirmed that the agreements signed with China are in various stages of implementation.
In a major leadership transition, Dangote Sugar Refinery Plc (DSR) has announced the retirement of Aliko Dangote, its founder and chairman, from the Board, effective June 16, 2025.
Aliko Dangote
The announcement was made in a regulatory filing with the Nigerian Exchange Ltd on June 11, highlighting the company’s commitment to sound corporate governance and structured succession planning.
In a statement signed by Mrs. Temitope Hassan (FCIS), company secretary and legal adviser, the Board praised Dangote’s extraordinary leadership and lasting contributions to the company.
“Alhaji Aliko Dangote is one of the founding Directors of the Company and has served with exceptional leadership, integrity, and vision since 2005,” the statement read.
“Under his stewardship, Dangote Sugar Refinery transformed significantly, navigated industry changes, consistently delivered value to shareholders, and upheld strong governance principles.”
Widely regarded as Africa’s most influential industrialist, Dangote led DSR’s evolution into a dominant player in Nigeria’s sugar value chain.
His strategic initiatives, particularly the Backward Integration Projects (BIPs) across Adamawa, Taraba, and Nasarawa States, advanced the company’s self-sufficiency goals and aligned with the federal government’s national sugar master plan.
While stepping down from DSR, Dangote will continue as President of Dangote Industries Limited.
His legacy at DSR is marked by industrial innovation, strategic foresight, and sustained operational excellence.
To ensure a seamless transition, the Board has appointed Mr. Arnold Ekpe, a seasoned independent non-executive director, as the new chairman, effective June 16.
Ekpe is renowned for his tenure as Group CEO of Ecobank Transnational Incorporated, where he championed pan-African financial inclusion and institutional growth.
His extensive experience in banking and corporate governance is expected to strengthen DSR’s next phase of development.
The leadership change signals continuity of vision, with DSR reaffirming its focus on operational efficiency and long-term value creation in a dynamic market.
For shareholders and industry observers, Dangote’s exit from the Board marks the end of a transformational era—one defined by bold ambition and strategic execution—while opening a new chapter under Ekpe’s leadership.
Kaspersky Global Research & Analysis Team researchers have discovered a new malicious campaign which is distributing a Trojan through a fake DeepSeek-R1 Large Language Model (LLM) app for PCs.
The previously unknown malware is delivered via a phishing site pretending to be the official DeepSeek homepage that is promoted via Google Ads.
The goal of the attacks is to install BrowserVenom, a malware that configures web browsers on the victim’s device to channel web traffic through the attackers servers, thus allowing to collect user data – credentials and other sensitive information. Multiple infections have been detected in Brazil, Cuba, Mexico, India, Nepal, South Africa and Egypt.
DeepSeek-R1 is one of the most popular LLMs right now, and Kaspersky has previously reported attacks with malware mimicking it to attract victims. DeepSeek can also be run offline on PCs using tools like Ollama or LM Studio, and attackers used this in their campaign.
Users were directed to a phishing site mimicking the address of the original DeepSeek platform via Google Ads, with the link showing up in the ad when a user searched for “deepseek r1”.
Once the user reached the fake DeepSeek site, a check was performed to identify the victim’s operating system. If it was Windows, the user was presented with a button to download the tools for working with the LLM offline. Other operating systems were not targeted at the time of research.
After clicking on the button and passing the CAPTCHA test, a malicious installer file was downloaded and the user was presented with options to download and install Ollama or LM Studio.
If either option was chosen, along with legitimate Ollama or LM Studio installers, malware got installed in the system bypassing Windows Defender’s protection with a special algorithm.
This procedure also required administrator privileges for the user profile on Windows; if the user profile on Windows did not have these privileges, the infection would not take place.
After the malware was installed, it configured all web browsers in the system to forcefully use a proxy controlled by the attackers, enabling them to spy on sensitive browsing data and monitor the victim’s browsing activity.
Because of its enforcing nature and malicious intent, Kaspersky researchers have dubbed this malware BrowserVenom.
“While running large language models offline offers privacy benefits and reduces reliance on cloud services, it can also come with substantial risks if proper precautions aren’t taken.
Cybercriminals are increasingly exploiting the popularity of open-source AI tools by distributing malicious packages and fake installers that can covertly install keyloggers, cryptominers, or infostealers.
These fake tools compromise a user’s sensitive data and pose a threat, particularly when users have downloaded them from unverified sources,” comments Lisandro Ubiedo, Security Researcher with Kaspersky’s Global Research & Analysis Team.
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