FXTM Analysis: U.S Election Fears Send Investors to Save Havens

Asian equities opened in red early Friday as S&P 500 logged its longest run of declines since 2008 amid concerns over U.S. presidential elections.

Voting polls are single handedly the biggest market moving gauge, and if they continued to show a close race to the White House, expect volatility to soar with very few assets to hedge against a Trump win.

Average polls are indicating that Trump managed to close the gap significantly in the past couple of days with Clinton lead currently standing below 2%, the lower her lead goes the higher volatility will soar.

The Japanese currency and Gold seem to be traders’ favorite choice for the time being.

USDJPY fell more than 2.3% in 5 trading days while gold is trying to hold above $1,300 after recovering 5% from October 7 lows. I continue to favor the yellow metal on the short to medium-term with lot of uncertainty surrounding the current investment environment.

In foreign exchange news, sterling was the best performing currency yesterday rising more than 1% against the dollar after British High Court ruled that the process of exiting the European Union cannot begin without the parliament’s vote.

The news offered some hope that Theresa May will be forced to follow a “soft Brexit path” as most parliament members did not support the decision to leave the EU, it also suggests that article 50 might be evoked after March 2017, the deadline mentioned by Theresa May.

If coming news continue to support a softer Brexit, expect the pound to recover further with first target around 1.26. 

Today’s US jobs report will have the second most significant impact on markets. The economy is expected to add 175,000 jobs in October versus 156,000 in September, and unemployment to tick down to 4.9% from 5%.

Wages are no less important with average hourly earnings expected to climb to 2.6% from a year ago suggesting that inflation will return sooner than later.

A solid jobs report will likely provide some relief to the US dollar, but voting polls will remain the biggest influencer.