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Government Shutdown Still Hurts US Market-ForeTime

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Data in the US got off to a weak start last week, with the Retail Sales figures for September disappointing expectations of a 0.2% rise, having fallen by 0.1%.

The poor figure was somewhat vindicated by the fact that sales dropped only in the auto sector, which weighed on the overall percentage for retail sales as a whole.

Whilst this is still bad news for the US, other sectors outside the auto sector fared relatively well and core sales rose by 0.4% as expected. Consumer Confidence experienced a drastic fall in October, sliding to 71.2 points; despite the fact that forecasts told of a fall, it was estimated that the drop would be from 79.7 to 75 points. The actual figure marked a 6 month low and revealed that Americans were significantly disconcerted in October due to the 16 day government shutdown, as reported by ForexTime.

Employment data also suffered last week, with data released on October 31st showing a gain of just 130K in October, the lowest figure since

May and lower than the anticipated 151K. Jobless claims are finally beginning to be more accurate again, as the backlog created due to a glitch in systems in California in September is finally starting to clear. Jobless claims declined to 340K, much in line with expectations.

The result of the Fed meeting which took place on October 31st was none other than the predicted: the monetary policy was left unchanged and bond buying will remain at $85 billion per month.

The Fed expects to see a more substantial improvement in the economy before modifying the pace of bond purchases.

The current week will reveal the US Annualized GDP which is to be released on November 7th and predicted to rise by 2.0%, the Personal Consumption Expenditures released on the same day and predicted to rise by 0.8% and the Nonfarm Payrolls for October, due out on November 18th and estimated at 130K.

Trouble seems to have arrived in the eurozone’s ace of spades, Germany, with the unemployment change released at 2K for October, double the estimated 1K, making for a total of 2.97 million of the population unemployed. This is the third consecutive month that the German unemployment rate has increased and it clearly spells out a slowdown in the eurozone’s strongest economy.

Further dampening spirits was the eurozone Core Inflation which hit a four year low of 0.7% in October, dropping from September’s 1.1% and remaining substantially below the ECB’s 2% target.

The Core CPI for the eurozone also declined in October, rising by just 0.8% in comparison to September’s 1%.

The euro suffered following the announcement of the negative chain of news last week, trading at 1.3676. On November 7th, the ECB will announce its interest rate decision which is largely expected to stay unchanged, but will also at the same time likely attempt to deliver the message that it will not hesitate to take action to alleviate monetary conditions.

The eurozone is far from safe when it comes to financial difficulties and if ECB President Mario Draghi allows his concern to show during the ECB Press Conference on the 7th, the euro is likely to plunge again.

On the British front, last week seems to have ended on a high, with more and more mortgage approvals adding up to make for a 5 year high of 66,735, indicating a strong economic recovery through the housing sector. The end of the month came with the release of the Gfk Consumer Confidence for September which has continued in its gradual improvement, up to -8 points following on from August’s 5 year high of -10. Nationwide housing prices also skyrocketed according to data released on October 31st, rising by 5.8% and marking a 3 year high whilst acting as a central factor in boosting the UK’s economic recovery.

The most important releases to look out for this week in the UK include the GDP Estimate on November 6th, the Asset Purchase Facility on November 7th which is predicted to stay at £375B and the Bank of England Interest Rate Decision which is expected to remain the same. Estimates foretell that the interest rate is not likely to be raised until 2015 because despite the fact that the UK economy is progressing so rapidly, the unemployment rate is still not at the level desired by the Bank of England.

Japanese households surprised the economy pleasantly according to the September figures released by the Statistics Bureau on October 28th, household spending increasing by 3.7% after declining by 1.6% in August and soaring above expectations of a mere 0.5% rise. Good news followed for the rest of the week, industrial production in Japan also rising by 1.5% and the national unemployment rate declining to 4%, exactly in line with expectations.

The Nomura/ JMMA manufacturing PMI climbed to 54.2 for the month of October, indicating positive movement in the Japanese manufacturing sector. As for the Bank of Japan interest rate, it has remained unchanged at 0.1% as attempts to end the long years of deflation continue. This week, on Tuesday November 5th, the Bank of Japan Monetary Meeting Minutes will be released with comments due to on the state of the economy and the current policies.

 


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E-Financial

CBN Permits BDC Operators to Buy FX from NAFEM During Festive Season

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has announced that eligible Bureau de Change (BDC) operators will have temporary access to the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM) to purchase $25,000 weekly. This arrangement, aimed at addressing seasonal foreign exchange (FX) demand, will be effective from December 19, 2024, to January 30, 2025.

In a statement signed by T.G. Allu, CBN’s acting director of trade and exchange, the apex bank said BDC operators would buy FX from authorized dealers—banks licensed by the CBN—exclusively to meet retail market demand.

“To meet expected seasonal demand for foreign exchange, the CBN is allowing temporary access for all existing BDCs to the NAFEM for the purchase of FX from Authorized Dealers, subject to a weekly cap of $25,000,” the statement read.

BDC operators must fully fund their accounts before accessing the market at prevailing NAFEM rates, choosing only one authorized dealer for transactions under this arrangement. A maximum price spread of 1% is allowed for retail pricing by BDCs, and all transactions will be reported to the CBN’s Trade and Exchange Department.

The CBN reiterated that personal travel allowance (PTA) and business travel allowance (BTA) remain available through banks for legitimate travel needs. The bank emphasized that all FX transactions must be conducted at market-determined exchange rates.

“The CBN remains committed to a fully functional foreign exchange market and will continue to provide liquidity when necessary to manage price volatility,” the statement added.

Earlier in September, the CBN approved FX sales to eligible BDC operators at a rate of N1,590 per dollar to cater to demand for invisible transactions, reflecting ongoing efforts to stabilize the FX market.


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Diaspora Remittances to Nigeria Reach $4.22 Billion in 2024, Says CBN

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has announced that diaspora remittances through international money transfer operators (IMTOs) reached $4.22 billion between January and October 2024.

This figure represents a 61 percent increase, or $2.62 billion more than the amount recorded during the same period in 2023.

CBN Governor Olayemi Cardoso shared the figures during an interactive session with the Senate Committee on Banking, Insurance, and Other Financial Institutions at the National Assembly on Wednesday. “The year-on-year increase reflects significant growth,” Cardoso noted.

He also reported that remittances rose from $336 million in September 2024 to $402 million in October 2024 on a month-to-month basis.

Cardoso expressed optimism about continued growth in remittance inflows, saying, “The remittance inflows would continue to rise by the end of the year, given the current trajectory.”

He attributed the surge to improved efficiency in the remittance system, the positive effects of President Bola Tinubu’s policies, and increased trust among Nigerians in the diaspora to contribute to national development.

In addition to remittance updates, Cardoso addressed the state of Nigeria’s external reserves, which he said had grown to $42.01 billion as of December 12, 2024, from $38.35 billion on September 30, 2024.

“External reserves rose largely due to receipts from crude oil-related taxes and third-party receipts in Q3 2024,” he explained.

He added that Nigeria’s external reserves could fund over nine months of goods and services imports, surpassing the international benchmark of three months. “Our external reserves level is a robust buffer against shocks,” Cardoso said.

On the issue of cash shortages, the CBN governor reiterated the enforcement of the new policy imposing a fine of N150 million on any bank branch found distributing new naira notes illegally to currency hawkers.

Cardoso also shared his outlook for the Nigerian economy in 2025. “Distinguished Senators, as we conclude this briefing, I want to highlight that despite the challenges facing our economy, there are clear reasons for optimism,” he said.

“The gradual stabilisation of the forex market, ongoing banking sector recapitalization, and positive growth trends in key sectors, especially the services sector, indicate a path toward recovery and stability.”

This comes as the CBN continues to implement measures to strengthen the economy. On October 17, the apex bank reported that remittance inflows had risen to almost $600 million by the end of September, while on June 25, it granted eligible IMTOs access to trade on the official FX window.

 


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Fraud in Bank Branches Surges by 31 Percent in Q2 — FITC

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The Nigerian banking sector has witnessed a concerning rise in fraudulent activities, with incidents of fraud in bank branches increasing by 31 percent in the second quarter of 2024.

Fraud in Bank Branches Surges by 31 Percent in Q2 — FITC

This alarming statistic was disclosed by the Financial Institutions Training Centre (FITC) in its Fraud and Forgeries report, highlighting significant challenges to the integrity of the country’s financial system.

Fraudulent activities in Nigerian banks led to a staggering N42.33 billion in reported losses during the first half of 2024.

This sharp rise was driven by escalating fraud across multiple channels, most notably within physical bank branches.

The FITC report revealed that fraud in bank branches rose dramatically to N42.2 billion in the second quarter, compared to N133.9 million in the first quarter.

The FITC data also pointed to a massive 1,560.3 percent increase in computer and web fraud. Losses in this category surged from N24 million in the first quarter to N400.8 million in the second quarter.

In contrast, mobile fraud witnessed a significant decline, dropping by 59 percent from N216.4 million in the first quarter to N88.7 million in the second quarter.

Interestingly, no cases of ATM-related fraud were recorded during the period under review.

The figures also indicate a shift in fraudulent activities involving various financial instruments. Card fraud saw a notable decline of 47.66 percent, with cases dropping from 21,469 in the first quarter to 11,231 in the second quarter. Conversely, cheque-related fraud rose by 36.67 percent, increasing from 30 cases in the first quarter to 41 in the second quarter.

Mobile fraud recorded an even steeper decline in value terms, dropping by 99 percent from N21.6 billion in the first quarter to N216.36 million in the second quarter.

These figures suggest evolving strategies among fraudsters, with some methods becoming less prevalent while others gain traction.

Amid the rising tide of fraud, legal actions have also intensified. In one notable case, an Abuja Federal High Court issued a 30-day freeze on 818 bank accounts linked to a N10 billion cyberattack on a Nigerian bank.

The court’s directive, issued on October 15, 2024, was based on a motion filed by the police against James Akagwu Isaac and other suspects, including several financial institutions.

Analysts say the surge in fraudulent activities underscores the urgent need for heightened vigilance, enhanced security measures, and robust regulatory interventions in Nigeria’s banking sector.

While the decline in some fraud categories, such as mobile and card fraud, offers a glimmer of hope, the sharp rise in branch-based and web-related fraud highlights the evolving tactics of fraudsters.

To combat these threats effectively, experts recommend that banks must invest in advanced fraud detection systems, conduct regular staff training, and strengthen internal controls.

Collaboration between financial institutions, law enforcement agencies, and regulators will also be crucial in mitigating the impact of fraud and safeguarding the financial ecosystem.

The FITC report serves as a stark reminder of the vulnerabilities within the banking sector and the need for proactive measures to address them. Without sustained efforts, the rising trend of fraud could pose significant risks to Nigeria’s economic stability and the trust of consumers in the financial system.

 

 

Credit: Tribune


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