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IMF Casts Gloom Clouds Over Nigeria’s Economy 

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By Lukman Otunuga, Senior Research Analyst at FXTM

How Nigeria navigates through the coronavirus storm will certainly influence its economic outlook well beyond 2020.

Over the past few months, the COVID-19 menace has wreaked havoc across Africa’s largest economy, digging its poisonous claws into major industries and sectors. No prisoners were taken, as manufacturing, agriculture, services and oil fell victim to the widespread disruptions. Although the country was able to expand 1.87% during the first quarter of 2020, the outlook for the rest of the year remains depressing thanks to a combination of negative external and domestic factors. Major institutions including the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have expressed concerns over Nigeria’s outlook. It was only yesterday that the IMF said that economic growth will contract by 5.4% this year compared to the -3.2% estimate in April.

In the past, Nigeria has experienced many trials ranging from severely depressed oil prices, US-China trade uncertainty and slowing economic growth in China among many other themes but COVID-19 is different. Africa’s largest economy is dealing with a health crisis that presents lasting psychological consequences on business confidence and consumer behaviour. The next few months may rough and rocky, especially when factoring how oil-output curbs could deepen thanks to recorded coronavirus cases in some offshore oil sites and remote locations. With revenue from crude and natural gas exports reportedly falling 31% from February amid low oil prices, this places the Central Bank of Nigeria and government in a tricky position. If foreign exchange reserves and government revenues decline during the second half of 2020, there will be limited ammunition to defend against COVID-19.

Speaking of ammunition, Nigeria has approved a whopping 2.3 trillion Naira economic stimulus plan to help the disruptions caused by this health crisis. The World Bank has also approved a $750 million loan to Nigeria’s power sector, something that could support the private sector. It will be interesting to see whether the combination of monetary policy and fiscal policy will be enough to guide Nigeria through the current storm.


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E-Financial

MoneyMaster Promotes Financial Inclusion, Offers more Bonus to Customers

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Julius Arhebun, the Head of Agency Banking a Nigeria’s leading payment service bank, MoneyMaster, has disclosed that the promotion of financial inclusion is one of the core mandates of the service.

He said this recently as the bank introduced a new 100MB data offer for every transaction made in the offer, which is available for Glo customers using the bank’s USSD banking code, *995#. The initiative is meant to incentivize the unbanked and underbanked population to ease the creation of their own mobile wallet via its USSD banking platform.

According to him, the offer builds on the various financial education “we have been providing online and across our various customer touchpoints”.

He added that “with this new 100MB offer, we want to encourage Nigerians in the unbanked and underbanked pools to be financially included by having at least a mobile wallet. The account number of this mobile wallet is derived from their mobile number, and can be easily recalled”.

MoneyMaster PSB is a leading provider of innovative digital financial products and services that transform lives and contribute to sustainable living.

The PSB has the   mission to deepen financial inclusion and has been instrumental in providing financial technology services to bridge the gap between the banked, underbanked and unbanked population.

The payment service bank recently unveiled a 10 percent data bonus for existing and new customers who are on the Glo network for recharges of N1000 or more. The offer has been adjudged one of the best in the country based on the volume of data on offer to customers. The data purchases have a 30-day validity while unused data can be rolled over upon next plan subscription.

 


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E-Financial

PenCom, PenOp to Integrate Uncovered Workers into Micro Pension Plan

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The National Pension Commission (PenCom) and the Pension Operators Association of Nigeria (PenOp) are taking steps to integrate workers who are not currently contributing to the Contributory Pension Scheme (CPS) into the Micro Pension Plan (MPP).

The initiative targets workers without any form of pension coverage, including those who have left previous employers under the CPS but wish to join the MPP.

The MPP is designed to allow self-employed individuals and those working in companies with fewer than three employees to contribute towards a pension for their retirement or in cases of incapacitation. Additionally, pension operators are developing incentives to make the MPP more appealing to potential contributors.

At the micro pension plan industry stakeholders’ engagement forum held in Lagos recently, organized by PenCom and PenOp, the Acting Director-General of PenCom, Omolola Oloworaran, highlighted the critical role of the MPP.

She said the event’s theme: “Reimagining Micro Pension Plan: Balancing Service, Policy, and Health” accurately captures the essence of the MPP as a transformative tool for improving the lives of Nigerians.

To maximise the impact of the MPP, PenCom is embarking on several initiatives like market segmentation, rebranding, advanced technology, incentives and others.

Oloworaran pointed out that with over 77.5 million workers in Nigeria’s informal sector, even a small increase in MPP participation could unlock billions of naira in savings, positively impacting individuals and the wider economy.

In his presentation on the “Overview of the Micro Pension Plan,” Babatunde Alayande, head of the micro pensions department at PenCom, emphasised the importance of providing incentives to make the MPP more attractive and accessible to its target market.

Okhueleigbe John, head of the micro pension unit at Stanbic IBTC Pension, stressed the need for tailored policies to promote the growth of the MPP. He also advocated more financial literacy, public-private partnerships, and innovative funding strategies to drive incentives for the scheme. Additionally, he called for a review of the pricing structure of micro pensions to make them more appealing to investors.

Dr. Shem Ouma of Kenya APSA also provided valuable insights, recommending that operators incorporate built-in benefits, ensure flexible payment systems for contributors, and leverage technology to drive the MPP forward.


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E-Financial

Foreign Transactions on NGX Hit N744.34bn in 10 Months, Up 156% YoY

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NGX has seen a record foreign investor transaction activity, with a 156% YoY increase reaching N744.34. Foreign investors’ transactions on the Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX) reached a total of N744.34 billion in the first 10 months of 2024, which was an increase by 156 percent Year-on-Year (YoY) when compared to the N291.38 billion recorded in the first 10 months of 2023.

The N744.34 billion foreign investors’ transactions recorded was another all-time high for the Nigerian bourse.

The latest NGX’s “Domestic & Foreign Portfolio Participation in Equity Trading,” for October 2024, revealed that foreign investors contributed about 16.65 percent out of the total transactions of N4.47 trillion reported in the 10 months under review.

The report revealed that foreign investors’ inflow and outflow stood at N344.30 billion and N400.04 billion, respectively.

The CBN recently implemented some reforms in the foreign exchange market aimed at enhancing transparency, compliance, and market stability. These reforms were part of the CBN’s broader strategy to create a fairer, more stable FX market and support economic growth through better monetary policies.

In tandem with these reforms, the CBN has also implemented aggressive Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) hikes, with the goal of curbing inflation and stabilising the naira, a move supported by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Domestic investors made up of retail and institutional investors transacted an estimated N3,726.63 trillion worth of stocks in the period under review.

The breakdown showed that domestic retail in 10 months of 2024 transacted N1.909.99 trillion as against N935.78 billion recorded in 10 months of 2023, while domestic institutional transacted N1.816.64trillion in 10 months of 2024 from N1.706.23 trillion in 10 months of 2023.

According to the report, the total transactions at the nation’s bourse increased marginally by 1.97percent from N493.01 billion (about $307.84 million) in September 2024, to N502.73 billion (about $300.05 million) in October6 2024.

“The performance of the current month when compared to the performance in October 2023 (N220.94 billion) revealed that total transactions significantly increased by 127.54per cent.

“In October 2024, the total value of transactions executed by Domestic Investors outperformed transactions executed by Foreign Investors by circa 82 per cent,” the report stated.

“A further analysis of the total transactions executed between the current and prior month (September 2024) revealed that total domestic transactions increased by 0.81per cent from N451.60 billion in September 2024 to N455.27 billion in October 2024.

“Similarly, total foreign transactions increased by 14.61 percent from N41.41 billion (about $25.86 million) to N47.46 billion (about $28.33 million) between September 2024 and October 2024.”


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