E-Financial
IMF casts gloomy cloud over Nigeria’s economy
By Lukman Otunuga, Research Analyst at FXTM
Market optimism over Nigeria’s economic recovery received a blow in September following an International Monetary Fund (IMF) statement that the nation was performing poorly.
Although at the start of the year the economic outlook looked incredibly encouraging with Nigeria coming out of a recession, the latest IMF report planted a seed of doubt over that recovery. The nation’s GDP rate in 2018 was revised downwards from 2.1% with tepid growth expected next year. While there could be some truth behind the IMF’s gloomy predictions, it is worth noting they were likely based on trade tensions and stress in emerging markets weighing heavily on global sentiment. According to the IMF, Nigeria’s projected economic growth may not be enough to create jobs for the country’s robust population while inflation is expected to rise to 13.5% in 2019. Although the weak GDP growth witnessed in Q2 added to the factors that have stimulated fears over the economy, there is still some light at the end of the tunnel.
Nigeria’s macro fundamentals were mostly mixed during the third trading quarter with inflation dipping to a 11.14% low before rebounding to 11.24% in August. While consumer prices continued to stabilize, the manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI remained in expansionary territory. With foreign exchange reserves hovering around the $46 billion level thanks to higher oil prices, there was noticeable stability in the Naira. The mixed data, external factors, and looming election risk resulted in the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) maintaining status quo for the whole of Q3.
It will be interesting to see if the central bank is able to act during the final trading quarter of this year. Higher US interest rates have sparked capital outflows while global trade tensions continue to weigh on sentiment. Although inflationary pressure has eased, pre-election spending could end up driving consumer prices higher, ultimately complicating the CBN effort to cut interest rates. While the idea behind a rate cut was to stimulate Nigeria’s economic growth, such a strategy may end up widening the interest rate differentials between the Fed and CBN – consequently accelerating capital outflows.
Outside of Nigeria, the bullish sentiment towards the US economy, prospects of higher US interest rates and safe-haven flows have boosted the Greenback. An appreciating Dollar remains very bad news for emerging markets, with Nigeria on the list. With the US firing on all cylinders and the Fed expected to raise interest rates in December and three more times in 2019, EMs remain threatened by capital outflows.
Looking at oil, the commodity had an explosive start in October, with Brent Crude accelerating past $86 and West Texas Intermediate doing its best to catch up but falling behind by roughly $10. Even with reports of the US considering waivers on Iran oil sanctions, the outlook points to further upside. With oil markets heavily supported by trade policy changes in the US and geopolitical risk factors, this is good news for oil-dependent nations. A steady appreciation in oil is likely to support Nigeria which currently remains reliant on oil exports for a chunk of its government revenues.
As we head deeper into the final trading quarter of 2018, investors will be paying very close attention to domestic economic data, central bank policy, and GDP figures. With the IMF trimming Nigeria’s growth outlook this year and for 2019, this could be a wakeup call for the government to boost its efforts in diversifying the nation from oil reliance. There needs to be a stronger push on agriculture developments and reinforcing infrastructure to create a stable and sustainable macroeconomic environment. With the near-term outlook for oil prices bullish and the Naira witnessing stability against the Dollar, Q3 growth could offer markets a pleasant surprise. It will be interesting to see if positive growth during the third quarter is enough to encourage the CBN to cut interest rates before 2019.
Enza, an embedded payment startup based in Dubai and founded by former Network International executives, has raised $6.75 million in seed equity funding. The round was co-led by Algebra Ventures and Quona Capital.
Founded in 2023, Enza’s payment solutions enable banks and fintechs to offer locally tailored payment services across African markets, including card issuance, digital wallets, and real-time payments.
The Enza platform is built to support both sides of the transaction chain — serving banks and fintechs on the issuing side, as well as SMEs and merchants on the acceptance side.
Existing client use cases feature the rollout of digital payment solutions, including domestic payment schemes, real-time payment services, mobile money, and Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) options, alongside international payment schemes across several African countries.
With operations in Egypt, Nigeria, and South Africa, the recent capital injection will help enza expand its footprint into other key markets throughout Africa.
Before founding enza, the leadership team oversaw global acceptance, processing, and consumer finance divisions at Network International.
Hany Fekry, CEO of enza, stated: “This investment is a strong vote of confidence in our team, our market-leading solutions, and our dedication to empowering banks and fintechs to advance financial inclusion across the continent.”
United Bank for Africa (UBA) Plc has released its audited financial results for the full year ended December 31, 2024, with all major indicators witnessing significant improvement.
The bank’s profit after tax rose by 26.14 per cent to ₦766.6 billion, up from ₦607.7 billion recorded at the end of the 2023 fiscal year.
UBA’s gross earnings also grew significantly from ₦2.08 trillion recorded at the end of the 2023 financial year to ₦3.19 trillion in the period under consideration, representing a 53.6 per cent growth.
The bank’s total assets rose remarkably by 46.8 per cent, from ₦20.65 trillion in 2023, to close at ₦30.4 trillion in December 2024.
Oliver Alawuba, group managing director/chief executive officer, UBA, said the bank’s performance demonstrated its focus on driving earnings growth, preserving asset quality, and expanding business operations.
The bank has proposed a final dividend of ₦3.00 kobo per share, bringing the total dividend for the year to ₦5.00.
The dividend is subject to shareholder approval at the upcoming Annual General Meeting.
UBA is one of the largest employers in the financial sector on the African continent, with 25,000 employees group-wide and serving over 45 million customers globally.
Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has reaffirmed its commitment to ensuring that only fit and proper individuals are permitted to operate in Nigeria’s capital market to enhance investor protection.
Speaking in an interview in Abuja over the weekend, Dr. Emomotimi Agama, director-general, SEC, emphasized that market operators engaging in unscrupulous activities would not be allowed to go unpunished.
According to him, “It’s important that, as a form of self-regulation, they are aware beforehand that if you do what is not right, the SEC will bring you out to the wall to say that you do not have character, because the very ethics of regulating or of registering a securities market operator is in the principle of the fit and proper person’s test.
“A fit and proper person’s test means that you satisfy all of the requirements that have been laid down in the Investments and Securities Act 2007 and in other regulations that the SEC has brought out to make sure that this happens.
“Disclosures by public companies will be very, very essential making sure that the investor has enough information to make decisions. If information is not provided, then that will be against the rules and regulations of the SEC and indeed, the ISA. So clearly for us, it is getting people to understand that there is no hiding place anymore for anybody that has an intention to defraud Nigerians and to defraud anybody that is investing in this market.”
The SEC Director-General stated that investor protection is a fundamental principle for the Commission, as the Investments and Securities Act (ISA) 2007 clearly outlines the objectives of securities regulation in Nigeria, with investor protection and market development as its twin priorities.
He emphasized that for any market to thrive, investor protection must remain a top priority.
He further asserted that the SEC is committed to ensuring that all market participants understand the Commission’s sacred responsibility, stressing that the SEC’s leadership, entrusted with this duty by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, will carry it out effectively.
“It is important to state clearly that every investor in Nigeria is under the cover of the SEC as long as the person operates within the Nigerian capital market. And so the year 2025 is a year where we say that there is zero tolerance for any activity that does not fall within the laws of the Investments and Securities Act 2007.
“We are excited that the National Assembly has passed the new Investment and Securities Act and we are earnestly waiting for the President’s assent as the Bill is going through an administrative process to get to the President, to get it assented to.
“And that alone also signifies our intention to make sure that everyone that is investing in this market, or intends to invest in this market has a cover. That cover runs across so many lines, particularly, let me mention that Ponzi schemes will no longer be a place where people will be factoring, where people will be interested in, because the penalties in the new ISA you know, towards people that are engaged in Ponzi scheme is stiff enough to deter them.”
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