E-Financial
IMF Tells Nigeria, Others to Devalue Currency, Hike Interest Rates
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has advised emerging economies including Nigeria to allow their currencies to depreciate in response to tighter funding conditions and an imminent policy tightening by the Federal Reserve Bank of the United States.
The Washington-based lender also counselled the Central Bank of Nigeria and the apex banks of emerging economies to raise their benchmark interest rate in preparation for the Fed policy tightening.
The IMF disclosed this in a blogpost titled, ‘Emerging Economies Must Prepare for Fed Policy Tightening,’ on Monday.
According to the fund, while changes in the global economic outlook appear positive, especially in the United States, these changes are uncertain for emerging markets.
It noted that emerging markets with high public and private debts, foreign exchange exposures, and lower current-account balances had been seeing larger movements of their currencies relative to the US dollar in recent months.
As a result, the IMF said the combination of slower growth and elevated vulnerabilities could create adverse feedback loops for the emerging economies.
It said, “Some emerging markets have already started to adjust monetary policy and are preparing to scale back fiscal support to address rising debt and inflation.
“In response to tighter funding conditions, emerging markets should tailor their response based on their circumstances and vulnerabilities. Those with policy credibility on containing inflation can tighten monetary policy more gradually, while others with stronger inflation pressures or weaker institutions must act swiftly and comprehensively.
“In either case, responses should include letting currencies depreciate and raising benchmark interest rates. If faced with disorderly conditions in foreign exchange markets, central banks with sufficient reserves can intervene provided this intervention does not substitute for warranted macroeconomic adjustment.
“Nevertheless, such actions can pose difficult choices for emerging markets as they trade off supporting a weak domestic economy with safeguarding price and external stability. Similarly, extending support to businesses beyond existing measures may increase credit risks and weaken the longer-term health of financial institutions by delaying the recognition of losses. And rolling back those measures could further tighten financial conditions, weakening the recovery.”
The IMF said that to manage the tradeoffs, emerging economies must take steps to strengthen policy frameworks and reduce vulnerabilities now.
It added that central banks needed to be clear and consistent in communicating its tightening measures to contain inflation pressures in order to enhance the public’s understanding of the need to pursue price stability.
According to it, countries with high levels of debt denominated in foreign currencies must try to reduce it and hedge its exposures where feasible, and while reducing rollover risks, the maturity of obligations should be extended even if it increases costs.
The IMF said heavily indebted countries might need to start fiscal adjustment sooner and faster.
It added that emerging economies were currently battling elevated inflation rates, and high public debt profiles.
It said, “Beyond these immediate measures, fiscal policy can help build resilience to shocks. Setting a credible commitment to a medium-term fiscal strategy would help boost investor confidence and regain room for fiscal support in a downturn.
“Such a strategy could include announcing a comprehensive plan to gradually increase tax revenues, improve spending efficiency, or implement structural fiscal reforms such as pension and subsidy overhauls.”
The Washington-based lender said the average gross government debt in emerging markets was up by almost 10 per cent since 2019, reaching an estimated 64 per cent of Gross Domestic Product by the end of 2021, with large variations across countries.
FDI into Telecoms Sector Plummet by 70 Per Cent
Foreign capital flows into the Nigerian telecommunications sector shrank by 70.5 per cent to $107.46m in nine months last year, compared to the same period of 2020.
Data obtained from the National Bureau of Statistics’(NBS) reports on capital importation showed that the foreign capital inflows stood at $364.3m from January to September 2020.
According to the NBS, capital importation data is obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria and is inclusive of imported physical capital, such as equipment, and financial capital importation.
It added that capital importation is divided into three main investment categories: foreign direct investment, portfolio investment, and other investments.
Capital importation into the telecoms sector fell from $157.48m in first quarter of 2020 to $105.64m in Q2 and $101.18m in Q3.
In Q1 2021, foreign capital flows into the sector plunged from $56.28m in Q1 2021 to $0.34m in Q2 but rose to $50.84m in Q3.
Isa Pantami,inister of Communications and Digital Economy recently described the Information Communication Technology sector as an important catalyst for the diversification and growth of the economy, according to Punch
Going by recent developments in the sector, capital inflow is expected to increase as investments are directed towards increasing broadband penetration in the country.
MTN recently committed to invest N640bn (about $1.5bn) over the next three years to expand broadband access in Nigeria.
The Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) auctioned in December two of its available lots of 100 MHz TDD slots of 3.5 GHz band for the deployment of fifth-generation network for $547m.
According to the Global System for Mobile Communications Association, $500m and 6000 base stations will be needed for 5G rollout in 10 cities in Nigeria, driving the inflow of capital into the sector.
A source in the Association of Licensed Telecommunication Operators of Nigeria (ALTON) blamed the fall in capital inflows on the scarcity of foreign exchange, and government policy.
The source said, “Lack of forex has impacted on how we can import equipment into the country. This has reduced investments too. There is also the issue of end-user certificate. Because for us to import some equipment into the country, we need the certification of the security agencies, especially the National Security Adviser’s office.
Bank Customers Association of Nigeria (BCAN) has written to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) seeking urgent intervention over what it describes as persistent and unauthorized charges being deducted from customer accounts across the country.
This was revealed by Uju Ogubunka, president, BCAN, during the 2025 Artificial Intelligence Conference hosted by SuperNews in Lagos.
Themed “Power of AI: Enhancing Efficiency and Customer Satisfaction for Better Financial Services Experience”, the event brought together stakeholders in the banking and fintech sectors.
Ogubunka expressed concern that many of the charges deducted from customer accounts particularly under the end-user billing model for Unstructured Supplementary Service Data (USSD) do not fall within the framework of fees approved by the CBN.
“On the issue of excess charges, we have formally written to the Central Bank of Nigeria seeking a permanent solution. If that doesn’t happen soon, Nigerian bank customers may have no option but to publicly demand accountability,” he warned.
The BCAN President painted a grim picture of banking satisfaction levels in the country, arguing that many customers remain deeply frustrated by poor service delivery, even as banks boast of adopting digital and AI-driven tools.
“Let’s be honest customer satisfaction in Nigeria’s banking sector today is practically non-existent. The number of complaints, petitions, and legal disputes being filed daily at the Bankers’ House, CBN, NDIC, and mediation centres tells the real story,” Ogubunka said.
He noted that if artificial intelligence had truly taken root within financial services as advertised, many of the recurring issues such as transaction failures, poor response times, and vague charges would already be resolved.
Johnson Chukwu, the conference keynote speaker and a respected financial expert, spotlighted the immense potential AI holds for transforming Nigeria’s financial landscape especially in areas like consumer lending, customer experience, and fraud detection.
Chukwu said AI now enables instant consumer credit scoring, making it possible for financial institutions to offer small personal loans with minimal human involvement.
“Today, consumer credit is expanding because AI tools can assess your income and spending habits. Telcos know your payment patterns, your locations, even where you smoked last night. That data enables quick credit decisions you apply, and within minutes, the loan is disbursed,” he explained.
Chukwu also emphasized how AI can drive hyper-personalisation in service delivery.
“With AI, one million customers can be treated as one million unique individuals. The system recognises your face, fingerprint, and transaction behaviour. It tailors services that suit your lifestyle and financial goals.”
He added that the technology can also drastically reduce the time it takes to resolve complaints, citing AI’s ability to mine customer data and instantly identify root causes.
Chukwu concluded his remarks with a framework for AI adoption in financial services, listing seven essential “C’s”: Capacity, Capability, Collaboration, Creativity, Cognition, Continuity, and Control.
“Artificial Intelligence will shape the future of customer experience and service delivery. Financial institutions that fail to embrace it risk becoming irrelevant. The time to act is now,” he said.
By Austin Kwesi Okere
On June 4, 2025, Bloomberg.com drew global attention with the headline: “World-Beating Cedi Slows Ghana Inflation to Three-Year Low.” Defying expectations, the cedi has appreciated over 42% against the U.S. dollar since January, making it the world’s best-performing currency this year. This rally has not only boosted investor confidence but also helped reduce inflation and restore economic momentum.
What’s Driving the Rally and Can It Be Sustained?
Early signs suggest the rally is rooted in more than market forces. Under President John Dramani Mahama, Ghana appears to be undergoing a significant shift in governance, with an emphasis on real economic growth and social development rather than short-term optics.
At the heart of this shift is Mahama’s eight-pillar economic strategy, which includes:
- Completing the IMF program with fiscal discipline,
- Reopening capital markets,
- Strengthening sovereign wealth and local government financing,
- Clearing arrears and improving public investment,
- Reforming public financial management,
- Boosting exports via the Ghana Exim Bank,
- Positioning Ghana as a regional trade hub, and
- Reviving infrastructure development.
These efforts are beginning to pay off. Ghana has indicated it will exit the IMF program as scheduled in May 2026. At a press briefing in Washington, IMF Communications Director Julie Kozack noted that Ghana had achieved its debt-to-GDP target of 55% three years early and surpassed its international reserves goal, reaching GH¢10.6 billion by April 2025. The cedi’s strength has also helped slash Ghana’s debt stock by about GH¢150 billion.
President Mahama, speaking to the Ghana National Association of Teachers, reaffirmed his focus on stability and inclusive prosperity. GDP growth reached 5.4% in the first quarter, reinforcing the view that the economy is back on a growth path.
Monetary Policy and Inflation Management
The Bank of Ghana has played a key role in managing inflation and currency stability. In March, it raised the benchmark interest rate by 100 basis points to 28%, a reduction from its 30% peak in 2023. From January to April 2025, it absorbed GH¢79.8 billion in liquidity – up 76.6% from the same period the previous year, demonstrating its commitment to macroeconomic stability.
These measures have had visible results: inflation fell to 18.4% in May, its lowest level in three years, down from 21.2% in April.
Everyday Impact: The Cedi’s Gains in Real Terms
The appreciation of the cedi is beginning to improve everyday life for Ghanaians. Industrial importers, for instance, are now able to buy machinery at significantly lower prices. One contractor, who paid GHS25,000 for a block molding machine last year, paid just GHS13,000 for the same model in June—a 48% price drop.
Fuel prices have dropped by about 15%, with some Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) selling petrol for under GH¢12 per litre. This has led to a 15% reduction in transport fares, as announced by the Road Transport Operators Association in May.
Food and commodity prices are also falling.
The Food and Beverage Association of Ghana reports that the price of a bag of “Dubai” rice has dropped from GH¢460 to GH¢370, and a 50kg bag of imported rice that once sold for GH¢950 is now GH¢750. Cooking oil has fallen from GH¢1,000 to GH¢680 per gallon, and cement prices from GH¢120 to GH¢82 per bag.
In short, the stronger cedi is improving purchasing power, easing cost pressures, and lowering the cost of doing business.
What’s the Ideal Currency Level?
Despite the positive momentum, policymakers stress the need for balance. President John Dramani Mahama has underscored the importance of balance, cautioning that an overly strong cedi could harm exports. He suggests an optimal exchange rate range of 10 to 12 cedis per U.S. dollar – a level that supports both importers and exporters while preserving competitiveness.
Beyond interest rate adjustments, the sustained performance of the currency depends on broader structural and governance-related factors.
Three critical elements driving the cedi’s performance include:
- A government focused on real, inclusive growth;
- Reforms grounded in substance, not optics;
- Trustworthy, transparent governance.
This combination fosters domestic investment, reduces capital flight, and boosts economic confidence, setting off a cycle of growth and social cohesion.
Is the Cedi’s Rise a Temporary Spike or a Structural Shift?
Some analysts argue that Ghana’s currency rally reflects deeper structural improvements rather than a short-lived spike. Prof. Eric Oteng-Abayie of the Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology points to several domestic drivers behind the rally.
The Bank of Ghana’s Gold4Oil and GoldBod programs have increased Ghana’s gold reserves by 40.6% between May 2024 and April 2025. A requirement that 20% of gold export proceeds be converted to cedis before accessing dollars has stabilized forex supply and bolstered reserves.
Meanwhile, the removal of distortionary taxes such as the E-levy and the planned phase-out of the COVID-19 levy, combined with prudent public spending, have strengthened fiscal credibility.
Ghana’s debt restructuring has also offered relief. With the next major external repayment not due until July 2025, foreign exchange pressure has eased. Complementing this, the central bank injected $490 million into the forex market in April 2025 to support the cedi.
External Factors Working in Ghana’s Favor
Global trends have also benefited Ghana. The U.S. dollar has weakened—dropping 10% on the DXY index—amid global trade tensions and fears of a slowdown. This shift has favored emerging market currencies like the cedi.
Record-high prices for Ghana’s key exports – gold at $3,400 per ounce and cocoa at $10,000 per ton – have significantly boosted foreign exchange inflows. The formalization of small-scale mining has further increased legal gold exports, strengthening Ghana’s external position.
Relations with Commercial Creditors Normalised:
Fitch Ratings has upgraded Ghana’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to ‘B-‘ from ‘Restricted Default’ (RD), with Stable Outlook.
This was announced on their website on June 16, 2025. The upgrade of Ghana’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency IDR to ‘B-‘ from ‘RD’ reflects Fitch’s assessment that Ghana has normalised relations with a significant majority of external commercial creditors.
Ghana restructured its USD13.1 billon Eurobonds in October 2024. About USD2.6 billion of non-performing external debt still needs to be restructured. Of this, Fitch considers USD700 million to be commercial debt, representing 5% of total external commercial debt initially included in the restructuring perimeter. According to Fitch, “Ghana is negotiating with these outstanding commercial creditors, and we assess holdout risks as small.”
Can Ghana Sustain the Momentum?
While the outlook appears promising, the sustainability of this recovery will depend on disciplined policymaking, focused execution and the ability to maintain public trust. The early signs are encouraging, but in my view, “the jury is still out.”
Ghana’s case may well become a model for how transparent governance, strategic reforms, and global tailwinds can come together to drive economic revival – if the momentum can be maintained.
Austin Kwesi Okere is the Founder of CWG Plc and the Ausso Leadership Academy. In recognition of his contributions to business education and knowledge transfer across the continent, Austin was appointed to the Advisory Board of the Global Business School Network.
First Bank HoldCo Plc has disclosed that it spent over ₦15 billion to protect its banking systems from cyberattacks between January and June this year, as digital threats to financial institutions continue to rise across Nigeria.
Mr. Olusegun Alebiosu, CEO, First Bank
Mr. Olusegun Alebiosu, chief executive officer of the bank, revealed this on Wednesday while speaking on the sidelines of a two-day National Seminar on Banking and Allied Matters for Judges, held in Abuja.
Alebiosu said the bank invested ₦3 billion in cybersecurity measures in June alone, part of a broader commitment to safeguarding customer assets and maintaining trust in Nigeria’s banking system.
The News Agency of Nigeria reports that the CEO said the bank had the most robust cybersecurity framework in the country, which justified the substantial investment.
Speaking on the rising wave of cyberattacks targeting banking systems, Alebiosu assured First Bank customers that their funds remained secure.
He also expressed concern over the growing involvement of some Nigerians in cybercrime, stressing the urgent need for the country to tackle the menace decisively.
He said, “No customer would lose their money in First Bank unjustly. If their money is missing from First Bank, First Bank will pay it back. Before I joined First Bank, I had an account with First Bank. One of the reasons why I had an account with First Bank was that I said to myself, if my money is missing, it is the only bank I know I will collect my money back without any excuses.”
Responding to customers’ complaints about delays in addressing cases of fraudulent transactions, Alebiosu explained that the bank must carry out thorough investigations involving multiple stakeholders.
He said the delays often stem from the need for collaboration between security agencies and the recipient banks to ascertain the facts surrounding each case thoroughly.
Alebiosu also advised customers to be cautious when handling and sharing their financial information.
“Customers themselves, most times, also compromise their own security details; I have seen a lot of people that give their cards to somebody to help them withdraw money from their ATM. They compromised their password, so when something happens and you say, my money disappeared, you forget the day you gave your card to someone else and they can use that to transfer your money,” he said.
“Some people even compromise their own ID on the system carelessly; some give their Bank Verification Number (BVN), and they use it against them.”
“Now, why does it take time for the bank to react? everything you give to the bank, the bank has to investigate it. The money might have gone to other banks, so you start tracking from other banks, but sometimes customers are impatient,” he said.
Regarding alleged fraud committed by staff, he stated that the bank uses internal employee fraud detection software to monitor staff activities on its systems.
He added. “If you knew how many of our staff we sack on a monthly basis, you wouldn’t believe it. So if there are triggers, people will be involved. It is for us to run faster than them and see how we can help to stop these kinds of things in our system but wherever we see it, we deal with it decisively.”
He stated that curbing cybercrimes requires the active involvement of various stakeholders, including banks, law enforcement agencies, and the judiciary.
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