General News
Investing Across Generations
By Manpreet Gill
A client recently asked us an interesting question about long term investing – if one wishes to pass on an inheritance to the next generation, should it be fully invested in equities alone?
At face value, there is a temptation to say yes. Equities, as is often repeated, have historically outperformed other asset classes ‘in the long term’ and, so the argument goes, the inevitable volatility along the way should not matter over such a long time-horizon.
However, as we argue below, there are a few things that could go wrong with such an approach. While the appropriate allocation will always differ from one situation to another, in most cases a somewhat more diversified allocation could end up being a more prudent approach.
Preserving wealth for the next generation
There is no shortage of studies that show equities outperformed bonds and cash over long time-horizons in the post-World War II period. One of the most famous studies in this space – Jeremy Siegel’s ‘Stocks for the long run’ – uses considerable US market data to show that, over a sufficiently long period, equities have done a better job of delivering inflation-beating returns than (government) bonds, gold or cash.
While there has been much debate over whether investments made at today’s valuation points will deliver much lower returns than we are used to historically, the relative ranking between asset classes is still likely to hold.
Our long-term (multi-year) expected returns, put together in partnership with Mercer Consulting in late 2020, show that global equities are expected to deliver mid-single digit annualised returns. While this is lower than what we are used to historically, it is still higher than the less-than-1% annualised returns expected from global bonds and cash, and potentially negative returns from gold.
Such a future would look very much like the past, albeit with somewhat lower annualised returns across the board. Does that mean we should allocate to equities alone for the long run?
Will our nerves be as strong as financial history?
Possibly one of the biggest risks to such a strategy is that an all-equity strategy would make us more susceptible to making a behavioural mistake. To provide just one example, the global equity index fell almost 60% from its October 2007 peak to its March 2009 trough.
Looking back at history, we now know that the correct action for a buy-and-hold investor with a multi-decade horizon would have been to do nothing. However, amid the screaming headlines at the time, would we honestly have been able to avoid making the mistake of selling some, or all, of our holdings in panic? In today’s bull market, it is easy to say we would not. Nevertheless, there are countless anecdotes of investors who failed to hold their nerves at that time: selling close to the market low and exacerbating the situation by not reinvesting to take advantage of the subsequent equity market rebound.
Most diversified investment allocations would have fallen over that period as well. However, a diversified allocation across equities, bonds, gold and cash would have fallen by much less than 60% and gains in asset classes like bonds and gold would have offered opportunities to take profit and rebalance into equities as they fell.
This would not only have reduced the chances of making an investment error, but possibly even created a situation where rebalancing would have led one to add to equities at an opportune time.
Other pitfalls
Beyond making a behavioural mistake, we should also be wary of three risks of focusing on equities alone.
First, many studies highlighting the historical outperformance of equities over long horizons focus on equity indices. This means that, while the conclusions of the study would apply if implemented through mainstream equity indices, implementation via anything more specific – sectors or specific stocks, for example – would introduce additional layers of complexity that could lead to a very different outcome, including the risk of permanent loss. For example, of the ‘Nifty 50’ stocks popular in the 1970s in the US, many are no longer even publicly traded.
Second, most available research use US data, sometimes with a disproportionate focus on post-World War II history. It is plausible that the experience outside the US may not be exactly the same.
Other studies have also argued that pre-World War II data shows performance between equities and bonds was much more evenly matched. While much of this may seem like ancient history, when considering investment allocations targeted at multi-decade horizons, it is fair to question whether the next fifty years will indeed look like the last fifty.
Third, a broad-sweep characterisation of equities and bonds can hide many opportunities a level or two down from these large categories. For example, our long-term expected returns show that asset classes like Emerging Market local currency bonds or listed infrastructure could offer long-term returns competitive with global equities, while offering diversification benefits.
Maximising one’s chances of success
A lot can happen over a long time-horizon, and while history is often a useful guide, it is far from guaranteed that future decades in financial markets will look exactly like past ones. For investors, while a large allocation to equities makes sense over such long time-horizons, we believe a reasonable amount of diversification can help mitigate the journey’s risks and maximize the investment returns.
(Manpreet Gill is Head of FICC Strategy at Standard Chartered’s Wealth Management CIO office)
Kuwait’s Criminal Security Sector has dismantled an international cybercrime ring composed of Nigerians responsible for coordinated attacks on telecommunications towers and banks, the Ministry of Interior announced on Sunday.
According to Arabic-language daily Al Qabas, the case was initiated after the Communication and Information Technology Regulatory Authority reported cyber intrusions targeting local telecom networks.
Specialised security teams quickly launched an investigation, discovering that the suspects used advanced electronic devices to breach networks and distribute mass phishing messages impersonating banks, aiming to steal account information and siphon funds.
Signal-tracking technology led investigators to a vehicle in the Salmiya area.
When authorities attempted to stop the vehicle, the driver tried to flee, colliding with several cars before being apprehended following a fierce struggle.
A search of the vehicle uncovered sophisticated electronic equipment and various technical tools.
Upon investigation, the suspect confessed to collaborating with an accomplice to hack telecom networks and send fraudulent messages posing as banks and telecommunications companies.
Police subsequently located and arrested the second suspect, and a search of their residence uncovered additional devices used to analyse the stolen data.
Both suspects, along with the seized equipment, have been handed over to the relevant authorities for prosecution.
The Ministry of Interior reaffirmed its commitment to protecting the nation’s cybersecurity and intensifying efforts to combat electronic fraud targeting both citizens and residents.
Space in Africa, the Lagos-based firm Oniosun founded, is expecting its Egusi melon seeds to splash down in the Pacific Ocean Saturday—fresh from a trip to the International Space Station.
Once Earthside, experiments will begin on what is being hailed as the first food native to West Africa to be sent to space.
As Oniosun told AFP on Friday, it could herald an era where space exploration reflects the planet’s diversity.
“When we talk about humans colonizing other planets, this is not just an American mission or a European mission—this is a global mission,” he told AFP.
And future African space explorers might enjoy a taste of home.
Experiments on extraterrestrial food, which is to say tested in space, have been going on for years.
Growing food in space is seen as a crucial part of long-distance space flight and long-term missions, where frequent resupply won’t be feasible.
Scientists at the University of Florida in the United States, and the International Institute of Tropical Agriculture, in the southwestern Nigerian city of Ibadan, will examine the seeds “to see the effects of exposure to space” and zero gravity, including on the seeds’ DNA.
Once planted, researchers will monitor their post-space performance and germination.
The seeds went up to the ISS on a SpaceX flight last week, as part of NASA’s partnership with private firms.
Oniosun said the inclusion of Egusi seeds marked an important step forward, both for those on Earth as well as future astronauts.
High in protein, they are typically used to prepare soups and stews across West and Central Africa.
Africa’s most populous country has a small space industry, but the launch of the seeds seemed to generate more excitement on social media and in newspapers than previous launches of Nigerian satellites, he said.
“The moment that we’re sending food that they love, a food that holds significant cultural contexts to Nigeria… everybody starts getting interested in the subject,” Oniosun told AFP.
“The launch of Egusi melon seeds into space is more than a symbolic gesture,” he added.
“The future of humanity among the stars must reflect the diversity and richness of life on Earth.”
Whether pounded yam—the key dish served alongside Egusi soup—will make its way to the final frontier remains to be seen.
In a powerful demonstration of its commitment to the Renewed Hope Agenda of the present administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu GCFR, the National Information Technology Development Agency (NITDA) has launched the second cohort of the IgniteHer Bootcamp for Women Entrepreneurs, a strategic initiative aimed at accelerating gender inclusion and economic empowerment through digital innovation.
The bootcamp, themed “Empowering Women Entrepreneurs for Growth and Innovation”, was launched in partnership with the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) and brought together selected women entrepreneurs from across Nigeria, both physically and virtually, for rigorous training in digital skills, innovation management, business development, and investor readiness.
The NITDA Director General, Kashifu Inuwa CCIE, who declared the bootcamp open, reaffirmed the Agency’s role in aligning Nigeria’s digital development with the national priorities of reforming the economy for sustained inclusive growth and accelerating economic diversification through industrialisation and digitisation.
“Through IgniteHer, we are actualising President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda by expanding women’s access to technology and economic opportunity,” he stated.
The DG, who was represented by the agency’s Acting Director of the Digital Literacy and Capacity Building department, Dr. Ahmed Tambuwal, noted that inclusive innovation is a cornerstone of NITDA’s Strategic Roadmap and Action Plan (SRAP 2.0: 2024–2027), which supports national aspirations for inclusive growth, poverty eradication, and youth empowerment.
“We are not merely imparting skills; we are creating self-reliant entrepreneurs, change-makers, and leaders,” he added.
Inuwa disclosed that the IgniteHer Bootcamp is also a key component of the National Gender Digital Inclusion Strategy (NGDIS), through which NITDA is working to empower 12.7 million Nigerian women with digital literacy skills by 2027. He averred that the programme complements broader government efforts to bridge gender gaps, enhance productivity, and reduce unemployment, especially among young women.
Citing a report by the World Wide Web Foundation, the DG emphasised that closing the digital gender gap in Nigeria could unlock an estimated $13 billion in GDP growth over the next decade.
“This training is a step towards harnessing this economic potential and ensuring that women play an integral role in shaping the digital landscape of Nigeria,” he noted.
He therefore called on participants selected from over 12,000 applicants to seize the moment and shape the future of Nigerian entrepreneurship.
While highlighting NITDA’s leadership in strategic partnerships, the DG commended JICA and the Government of Japan for their ongoing collaboration in supporting digital empowerment through programmes like IgniteHer and the iHatch Incubation Programme, which provides startup support, mentorship, and innovation development to early-stage entrepreneurs.
“At NITDA, we believe that inclusive innovation is not just an ideal but a critical strategy that ensures the growth of a stronger economy, the development of smarter solutions, and the existence of more resilient communities. Through IgniteHer, we are dismantling barriers and replacing them with pathways to opportunity,” he concluded.
In his remarks, the Japanese Ambassador to Nigeria, Matsunaga Kazuyoshi, reaffirmed Japan’s long-standing commitment to innovation and gender inclusion in Nigeria. He announced that Japan, through JICA, is currently supporting two grant projects worth $30.9 million, focused on improving Nigeria’s startup ecosystem, strengthening the investment climate, and building an inclusive innovation hub.
The Ambassador also referenced the upcoming Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD 9), themed “Co-create Innovative Solutions with Africa”, as further testament to Japan’s dedication to deepening Africa-Japan cooperation on digital transformation and entrepreneurship.
Lead Facilitator of IgniteHer, Hajiya Hafsat Salabi-Dange, described the programme as a catalyst for social and economic transformation. While praising NITDA’s visionary approach to development, she stated that the programme is a movement that is bridging the digital gender divide and fostering economic independence.
Encouraging the participants to remain curious, intentional, and bold, she said, “What you will gain here goes beyond business; it is a tool for community upliftment, national growth, and generational impact.”
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