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CBN Should Cut Interest Rate in 2018 To Boost Investors’ Confidence- Otunuga

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Lukman Otunuga is a research analyst at FXTM. Prior to joining FXTM, Lukman spent two years as a research analyst with international currency broker FXCM, where he focused on technical and fundamental analysis of the global currency, commodity and stock markets.

Lukman was also responsible for leading educational seminars for international and local high net worth individuals, and has published a series of educational articles on forex trading with City A.M.  Lukman holds a BSc (hons) degree in Economics from the University of Essex, UK and an MSc in Finance from London School of Business and Finance, where he studied corporate finance, mergers & acquisitions and the role of international financial institutions. Lukman recently had chat with select media organisations. Peter oluka was there for Nigeria CommunicationsWeek.

Nigeria Exited Recession

I was very happy when we heard news a few months back about the growth in Q2 (quarter 2, 2017), breaking the barriers to economic growth. It was very good and expected. If you look at the steps taken by the Central bank of Nigeria (CBN), especially at the start of the year, they have done well. When the country’s economy slide to recession, I knew it was going to have a large impact.

The CBN realised that cost inflation was the major issue, sharp depreciation of Naira skyrocketed the situation with cost of importation became quite expensive. The importers where sending the costs back to the consumers. So, by opening the important and export forex window helped to cushion the effect. Presently, naira is N360/$ and the official rate is N305/$, so it is a great departure from what we saw in February this year.

Secondly, what I have realised, if you look closely at the Government; the $5.5billion loan which everybody has been talking about, this is quite big. One, if you look at the breakdown of the loan, you will realise that $2.5billion will be utilised in funding the 2018 budget. For an ‘infrastructure budget’, this is very good. This is what international investors want to hear; that Nigeria is moving forward to funding infrastructure and diversifying. Through that means, the investors’ sentiments towards Nigeria will be positive. Part of the loan is used to service local debt, which is also good.

A few weeks ago Moody downgraded Nigeria from B1 to B2 and the reason gave was that after the budget, they suggested, that Nigeria wasn’t taking the right steps. So, Nigeria was unsuccessful in shielding investments and the economy from oil shocks. While I understand reason they put that out there, we must know that the journey for Nigeria to diversify is not going to happen overnight. It is something that will take a couple of year. E.g. if you look at GDP growth in the third quarter (Q3) it was 1.4%; a chunk of it was through oil price recovery. What other people are not saying is that another chunk of it came from agriculture. So, Nigeria is taking steps to invest in other sustainable socio-economic growth.

Projections About 2018 Budget

Before making these predictions, we have to look at 2018 ‘Budget of consolidation’. I believe if you look closely at the budget, probably, the Nigerian Government has learnt lessons from previous budgets.

First, they must move and implement that budget by approving it in January 2018. We don’t want to see a situation what happened in 2017 when the budget was passed until middle of the year. If you look at figures, the Government has predicted that oil price will be at $45 at 2.3m/barrels per day at N305/$.

While I agree with the $45 and N305/$, I am sceptical about the 2.3m barrels/day. Keep in mind that OPEC meeting may probably hold early next year; presently, Nigeria is except from crude oil cut. I hope the Government has put into consideration that OPEC has actually requested all members to cut production to 1.8m barrels/day. But Nigeria’s exception was due to conflicts in the Niger-Delta. If this is being fixed, who knows, OPEC may start to ask Nigeria: it’s time for you to cut production back to 1.8m barrels/day. Right now, Nigeria’s production is 2m barrels/day. So, if you move oil production to 1.8million barrels/day from 2.3m, it something to consider.

In furtherance to my comments back in February, as inflation continues to subside, probably when it gets below 14%, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) should be offered the power to cut the interest rates to 12%. This is what we have been saying; once they do that they will actually encourage businesses to loan, thereby stimulating economic growth.

When it comes to Naira, the CBN has done a great job, stabilizing the Naira by nafex, improving the liquidity of the currency. We see the naira stabilising in the parallel market taking closer to CBN’s rate of N305/$

Key infrastructural development government should focus on in 2018

Top on the priority list of infrastructure that government should consider is the electricity. Statistics shows that electricity creation in Nigeria is very low. Stable electricity will naturally impact the businesses that will feed-back the economic growth. Roads are also important, especially in transporting goods.

Today, when we were moving around, the roads are very bad with deeps and gullies. Agriculture is another very important part that the Government will look into. Looking closely to the Nigerian population of 190million people; this is over 50% of the whole population of West Africa and we know that Nigeria has high rate of youth unemployment; these are able-bodied young people.

If the government can invest more on innovative farming, it could be the medium to absorb some of the young people. Not only will this support employment, but will enable Nigeria have food security. Yes, the economy has improved compared to February, but being able to grow and export our food is very important too. So, electricity, road and agriculture are three key areas government must not fail to address.

Following that, naturally, are, education, health and manufacturing.

Assessment of Nigeria’s Ability To Leverage Int’l Trade Agreements

To be honest, after the President went to China and the pronouncement was made that Nigeria and China has entered into agreement on the Yuan, I haven’t heard anything about it again. I wouldn’t know if the Government is trying to focus, first, internally; to be sure we are in the right and stable position, before we start dealing with international trade agreements.

Cryptocurreny and the Future of Online Forex

I don’t really blame the people who are still sceptical about bitcoin. Could you believe Bitcoin would ever sell for over $10,000? At the start of the year, it was below $1,000. That is over 900% increase which is why people jumping in; it is an amazing opportunity. But the problem with bitcoin is there is no real fundamental behind it. The main driver behind it is simply investors jumping in. It’s just like the stock market is rising, every body would want to be part of it. It rises on speculation.

Another thing about Bitcoin is, it doesn’t have really intrinsic value, which raises the fear it could be another massive speculated bubble. And we know what happens to bubbles- they burst. This is why the Nigerian Government is very protective, especially for the people of Nigeria jumping at it. Because something that lack intrinsic value, extremely volatile and not even licensed by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) nor covered by insurance, if you jump in and lose, that is the end of it.

Inspite, the scepticism, there are still the positives. We heard about the CME Group; they are planning to launch bitcoin features this month. That is a big move, because they are going to trade bitcoin, and track investors like banks. This will be a game changer in the bitcoin segment; who knows it will hit $25,000 by 2018. It is just that it remains a bubble….

….What are Bitcoin’s impact on forex market?

Honestly, I haven’t seen any bitcoin bullish impact on the forex market. With regards to how it has impacted the financial market in general, there have been some talks it is becoming the new safe haven. Such asset depicts that people are not safe and would like to have a safe net for their assets. It’s similar to what happens with gold.


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E-Financial

Wema Bank Battles to Recover N888.3m which Allegedly Vanishes in Shocking System Glitch

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Wema Bank PLC has taken legal action against 26 financial institutions, seeking a court order to recover N888,301,598.15 allegedly withdrawn from its accounts without authorization due to a system glitch.

Wema Bank Battles to Recover N888.3m which Allegedly Vanishes in Shocking System Glitch

The bank, in a suit filed before the Federal High Court in Lagos, urged the court to issue a preservative order mandating the financial institutions to return the funds traced to accounts held within their institutions.

In an affidavit written by Kehinde Buari, head of special Review & investigation of Wema Bank PLC, in  support of an application filed before the court by a Lagos lawyer, It was alleged that, Wema Bank PLC, experienced a system glitch on one of its core banking applications on 16th of January, 2025, which resulted in the unauthorised transfer of substantial funds from accounts held with the bank, as well as accounts held with the respective financial institutions dragged before the court.

After the incident, Wema Bank PLC commenced the tracing of the funds that were transferred without due authorization. While some of the funds have been traced internally, others have been traced to accounts held with the defendants /financial institutions.

The bank’s initial investigations led to the tracing of funds to accounts held with some of the defendants.

Further investigations revealed that the recipients of these funds attempted to dissipate, hide and or obscure the same by moving part of the funds to some of the financial institutions.

The bank took immediate steps to notify the financial institutions of the glitch and the unauthorised transfers of funds from the bank’s customers’ accounts to accounts held with the defendants.

 

The bank requested the beneficiary accounts held with the defendants to be immediately restricted/sequestered in order to protect/salvage the bank’s customers’ funds.

Some of the financial institutions immediately restricted the beneficiary accounts and sequestered/salvaged a significant portion of the funds that were transferred out of the plaintiff’s customers without authorisation.

The total amount salvaged by the said defendants is N888,301,598.15 (Eight Hundred and Eighty-Eight Million, Three Hundred and One Thousand, Five Hundred and Ninety-Eight Naira, Fifteen Kobo)

Further to the above, the bank’s Internal Audit and Legal Teams detailed the outcome of the ongoing investigations tracing the funds moved to accounts held with the defendants as a result of the system glitch.

Accordingly, an Internal Memo dated 16 January 2025 and two summaries dated 20 January 2025 and 21 January 2025 were issued, showing:

i.Particulars of the sums transferred out of the bank’s customers’ accounts and traced to other accounts held with the bank as well as to accounts held by the respective defendant.

Particulars of the beneficiary accounts in respect of the traced sums.

iii. Particulars of the sums salvaged by the respective defendants.    Respectively, copies of the bank’s internal memos, dated 20 January 2025 and 21 January 2025, have been filed before the court.

The investigation into the unauthorised movement of funds continued after the investigations conducted above.

Mr. Buari stated further that he knows that the beneficiaries/recipients of the unauthorised funds attempted to disguise/obscure the source of the said funds by dissipating the same through an intricate web of transfers.

Following the conclusion of further investigations, the plaintiff traced additional funds to the defendants.

Due to the complicated and intricate nature of the movement of the funds from  Wema Bank, it became necessary to involve the Nigeria Interbank Settlement System ( NIBSS)

The NIBSS promptly exchanged correspondence with several banks on 16th January 2025 regarding funds traced to the said banks from Wema Bank as a result of the system glitch.

i.The total sums traced to and or salvaged by the respective defendants, particularly as shown in various Exhibits, ought to be returned to recovered by Wema Bank from the respective defendants.

The financial institutions/defendants  ought to return to the plaintiff the total salvaged sum of N888,301,598.15 (Eight Hundred and Eighty-Eight Million, Three Hundred and One Thousand, Five Hundred and

Further to the above, the tracing of the millions of funds transferred without authorisation is still ongoing.

Wema Bank has approached this honourable court to secure an order directing and enabling the respective defendants to return the affected funds to the bank

The steps taken by the defendants are only temporary, pending the issuance of preservative, repatriation and further orders by the honourable court.

Further to the above steps, the plaintiff is required to obtain the relevant/necessary orders from this honourable court, failing which the defendants would be constrained to release the ringfenced/sequestered/salvaged funds.

Consequently, Wema Bank is seeking for:

An order directing/mandating the 26 financial institutions listed before the court to reverse/return to Wema Bank PLC the total sum of money running into Billions of Naira as appearing in Exhibits attached to the affidavit in support of the originating summons.

.  An order directing/mandating each of the respective defendants to reverse/return to the plaintiff, any other/further sum of money, as may be traced and or salvaged from funds moved without authorization from accounts held with Wema Bank to accounts held with respective defendants, as a result of the system glitch that occurred on 16 January 2025.

An order directing/ mandating the respective management/ officers of the respective defendants to disclose to the plaintiff and or relevant law enforcement/regulatory agencies, all required/relevant particulars of account holders who have dissipated the sun’s transferred to their accounts without authorisation, for purposes of investigation and or recovery.

An order directing/mandating the respective

management/officers of the respective defendants to place on the Central Bank of Nigeria Credit Risk Management System List and any other Watchlist, the Bank Verification Numbers (BVNs) of all account holders who have dissipated the sums transferred to their accounts without authorisation, until the full recovery of the dissipated funds by the plaintiff.

 

 

 


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NELFUND, NIMC to Roll Out Biometric G2P Cards for Students

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National Identity Management Commission (NIMC) has signed an agreement with the Nigerian Education Loan Fund (NELFUND) to commence rollout of multi-purpose Government-to-People (G2P) cards to students for enhanced access to loans and administration.

NELFUND, NIMC to Roll Out Biometric G2P Cards for Students

The MoU for the initiative was signed by Akintunde Sawyerr, managing director of NELFUND, and Engr. Abisoye Coker-Odusote, director-general, National Identity Management Commission (NIMC), alongside Mr Femi Akande, managing director of Data Mining Company, at NELFUND headquarters on Friday in Abuja.

The National Identity Number (NIN)-enabled G2P card is payment enabled and allows students to access their upkeep loans directly without necessarily waiting for banks as they could use the card to access different electronic services including point of sales (POS), automated teller machine (ATM) and web payment among others.

In his brief remark, Sawyerr, MD, NELFUND, described the MoU as a groundbreaking event to drive financial inclusion and promote transparency and accountability through the deployment of the Government-to-People Card.

He expressed the commitment of NELFUND management to the project, adding that the MoU would open a new vitsa for Nigerian students to access loans seamlessly using multiple wallets as facilitated by the biometric-enabled card from NIMC.

Sawyerr highlighted the immense support of NIMC to the success being recorded in the administration and disbursement of loans to students by providing essential identity verification services.

“I’m impressed with the work NIMC is doing, without NIMC NELFUND literally cannot function,” he said.

He commended President Bola Tinubu for rolling out socio-economic programmes that would change the narratives for Nigerian students, saying the Renewed Hope Agenda of the administration would have far-reaching positive impacts for Nigerian students.

Coker-Odusote, DG, NIMC, on her part, explained that the biometric-enabled cards are parts of products from NIMC to drive digital and financial inclusion and ensure that every single beneficiary of government services (loans) has a verifiable identity.

She added that the biometric-enabled cards have multiple wallets for students and could be used online and offline to access loans and other services.

Speaking further, the NIMC boss said the cards would also make it possible to track loan disbursement and ensure they are used for the purposes intended, noting that it would promote transparency, accountability and eliminate unnecessary bureaucracy.

“The biometric-enabled cards is unique in promoting digital and financial inclusion because of the layers of features in them. They cannot be forged or faked.

“They have features that make cash available in students’ wallets, the students can easily access their allowances, buy books and make transfers without waiting for banks. The cards operate online and offline,” she said.

 

 


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Nigerian Women Worst Hit by Ponzi Schemes – SEC

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Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has revealed that women are the most affected victims of Ponzi schemes in Nigeria.

Nigerian Women Worst Hit by Ponzi Schemes - SEC

A Ponzi scheme is a fraudulent investment scheme that pays earlier investors with money from new investors.

Dr. Emomotimi Agama, drector-general, SEC, disclosed this in Abuja on Thursday at an event marking International Women’s Day (IWD) organized by the commission.

He emphasized the need to educate and empower women to make informed financial decisions and create wealth in the capital market.

“Most of the Ponzi schemes in Nigeria have women as the majority of their victims. Women, with their empathetic nature, often invest in such schemes to support their families, but end up losing their hard-earned money,” Agama said.

He stressed the importance of providing platforms for women to trade their commodities and participate actively in the capital market.

Similarly, Hajia Imaan Sulaiman-Ibrahim, minister of Women Affairs, urged women to demonstrate excellence and make impactful financial decisions.

She praised SEC’s financial literacy initiative, stating that it would equip women with the knowledge needed for smart investments and protection from fraudulent schemes.

Mrs. Hafsat Rufai, director of Registration, Exchanges, and Market Infrastructure, SEC, highlighted the benefits of investing in the capital market, including wealth creation, dividend income, and tax benefits.

She urged women to verify investment firms with SEC before patronizing them.

Mrs. Hansatu Adegbite, chairperson of the Association of Nigerian Business Women Network, commended SEC’s efforts in educating women on financial literacy.

“Where poverty exists, we must create wealth. Women need to look beyond traditional savings and explore opportunities in the capital market,” Adegbite said.

The event, themed “Accelerate Action: Empowering Women through Financial Literacy and Inclusion,” attracted women associations from various sectors.

 

 


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