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CBN Should Cut Interest Rate in 2018 To Boost Investors’ Confidence- Otunuga

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Lukman Otunuga is a research analyst at FXTM. Prior to joining FXTM, Lukman spent two years as a research analyst with international currency broker FXCM, where he focused on technical and fundamental analysis of the global currency, commodity and stock markets.

Lukman was also responsible for leading educational seminars for international and local high net worth individuals, and has published a series of educational articles on forex trading with City A.M.  Lukman holds a BSc (hons) degree in Economics from the University of Essex, UK and an MSc in Finance from London School of Business and Finance, where he studied corporate finance, mergers & acquisitions and the role of international financial institutions. Lukman recently had chat with select media organisations. Peter oluka was there for Nigeria CommunicationsWeek.

Nigeria Exited Recession

I was very happy when we heard news a few months back about the growth in Q2 (quarter 2, 2017), breaking the barriers to economic growth. It was very good and expected. If you look at the steps taken by the Central bank of Nigeria (CBN), especially at the start of the year, they have done well. When the country’s economy slide to recession, I knew it was going to have a large impact.

The CBN realised that cost inflation was the major issue, sharp depreciation of Naira skyrocketed the situation with cost of importation became quite expensive. The importers where sending the costs back to the consumers. So, by opening the important and export forex window helped to cushion the effect. Presently, naira is N360/$ and the official rate is N305/$, so it is a great departure from what we saw in February this year.

Secondly, what I have realised, if you look closely at the Government; the $5.5billion loan which everybody has been talking about, this is quite big. One, if you look at the breakdown of the loan, you will realise that $2.5billion will be utilised in funding the 2018 budget. For an ‘infrastructure budget’, this is very good. This is what international investors want to hear; that Nigeria is moving forward to funding infrastructure and diversifying. Through that means, the investors’ sentiments towards Nigeria will be positive. Part of the loan is used to service local debt, which is also good.

A few weeks ago Moody downgraded Nigeria from B1 to B2 and the reason gave was that after the budget, they suggested, that Nigeria wasn’t taking the right steps. So, Nigeria was unsuccessful in shielding investments and the economy from oil shocks. While I understand reason they put that out there, we must know that the journey for Nigeria to diversify is not going to happen overnight. It is something that will take a couple of year. E.g. if you look at GDP growth in the third quarter (Q3) it was 1.4%; a chunk of it was through oil price recovery. What other people are not saying is that another chunk of it came from agriculture. So, Nigeria is taking steps to invest in other sustainable socio-economic growth.

Projections About 2018 Budget

Before making these predictions, we have to look at 2018 ‘Budget of consolidation’. I believe if you look closely at the budget, probably, the Nigerian Government has learnt lessons from previous budgets.

First, they must move and implement that budget by approving it in January 2018. We don’t want to see a situation what happened in 2017 when the budget was passed until middle of the year. If you look at figures, the Government has predicted that oil price will be at $45 at 2.3m/barrels per day at N305/$.

While I agree with the $45 and N305/$, I am sceptical about the 2.3m barrels/day. Keep in mind that OPEC meeting may probably hold early next year; presently, Nigeria is except from crude oil cut. I hope the Government has put into consideration that OPEC has actually requested all members to cut production to 1.8m barrels/day. But Nigeria’s exception was due to conflicts in the Niger-Delta. If this is being fixed, who knows, OPEC may start to ask Nigeria: it’s time for you to cut production back to 1.8m barrels/day. Right now, Nigeria’s production is 2m barrels/day. So, if you move oil production to 1.8million barrels/day from 2.3m, it something to consider.

In furtherance to my comments back in February, as inflation continues to subside, probably when it gets below 14%, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) should be offered the power to cut the interest rates to 12%. This is what we have been saying; once they do that they will actually encourage businesses to loan, thereby stimulating economic growth.

When it comes to Naira, the CBN has done a great job, stabilizing the Naira by nafex, improving the liquidity of the currency. We see the naira stabilising in the parallel market taking closer to CBN’s rate of N305/$

Key infrastructural development government should focus on in 2018

Top on the priority list of infrastructure that government should consider is the electricity. Statistics shows that electricity creation in Nigeria is very low. Stable electricity will naturally impact the businesses that will feed-back the economic growth. Roads are also important, especially in transporting goods.

Today, when we were moving around, the roads are very bad with deeps and gullies. Agriculture is another very important part that the Government will look into. Looking closely to the Nigerian population of 190million people; this is over 50% of the whole population of West Africa and we know that Nigeria has high rate of youth unemployment; these are able-bodied young people.

If the government can invest more on innovative farming, it could be the medium to absorb some of the young people. Not only will this support employment, but will enable Nigeria have food security. Yes, the economy has improved compared to February, but being able to grow and export our food is very important too. So, electricity, road and agriculture are three key areas government must not fail to address.

Following that, naturally, are, education, health and manufacturing.

Assessment of Nigeria’s Ability To Leverage Int’l Trade Agreements

To be honest, after the President went to China and the pronouncement was made that Nigeria and China has entered into agreement on the Yuan, I haven’t heard anything about it again. I wouldn’t know if the Government is trying to focus, first, internally; to be sure we are in the right and stable position, before we start dealing with international trade agreements.

Cryptocurreny and the Future of Online Forex

I don’t really blame the people who are still sceptical about bitcoin. Could you believe Bitcoin would ever sell for over $10,000? At the start of the year, it was below $1,000. That is over 900% increase which is why people jumping in; it is an amazing opportunity. But the problem with bitcoin is there is no real fundamental behind it. The main driver behind it is simply investors jumping in. It’s just like the stock market is rising, every body would want to be part of it. It rises on speculation.

Another thing about Bitcoin is, it doesn’t have really intrinsic value, which raises the fear it could be another massive speculated bubble. And we know what happens to bubbles- they burst. This is why the Nigerian Government is very protective, especially for the people of Nigeria jumping at it. Because something that lack intrinsic value, extremely volatile and not even licensed by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) nor covered by insurance, if you jump in and lose, that is the end of it.

Inspite, the scepticism, there are still the positives. We heard about the CME Group; they are planning to launch bitcoin features this month. That is a big move, because they are going to trade bitcoin, and track investors like banks. This will be a game changer in the bitcoin segment; who knows it will hit $25,000 by 2018. It is just that it remains a bubble….

….What are Bitcoin’s impact on forex market?

Honestly, I haven’t seen any bitcoin bullish impact on the forex market. With regards to how it has impacted the financial market in general, there have been some talks it is becoming the new safe haven. Such asset depicts that people are not safe and would like to have a safe net for their assets. It’s similar to what happens with gold.


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E-Financial

World Bank Reveals Obstacles to Growth of Mobile Money Accounts in Sub-Saharan Africa

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Despite being the global epicentre of mobile money innovation, Sub-Saharan Africa remains home to tens of millions of adults who do not own a mobile money account. A new World Bank report disclosed.

According to the Global Findex Database 2025, Sub-Saharan Africa is widely celebrated as the birthplace of mobile money, a technology that has transformed how people send, receive, save, and borrow money using basic mobile phones.

“Yet, the region still accounts for one of the world’s largest concentrations of adults without mobile money accounts,” it said.

The report shows that while about 40 percent of adults in Sub-Saharan Africa had a mobile money account in 2024, up sharply from 27 percent in 2021, roughly 60 percent still do not.

The reasons, the report argues, are less about lack of awareness and more about deep structural barriers that continue to exclude large segments of the population.

According to the report, a lack of money is the single most common barrier to mobile money account ownership in the region.

For many low-income households, irregular earnings, subsistence livelihoods, and dependence on cash-based transactions reduce the perceived value of maintaining an account, even when services are widely available.

This challenge is compounded by affordability issues. Transaction fees, charges for cashing out, and the cost of maintaining an active SIM card can deter the poorest adults, reinforcing the perception that mobile money is not designed for very small or infrequent transactions.

In Nigeria, the World Bank Group has announced an estimate that 139 million in 2025 will be living in poverty despite the reforms of the federal government.

Mobile phone ownership gaps persist

Mobile money cannot function without a mobile phone, yet phone ownership itself remains uneven. The report finds that 40 percent of adults now own a mobile money account, up from 27 percent in 2021.

And those who do not have a financial account also do not own a mobile phone of any kind.

This creates a double barrier: adults who are financially excluded are often also digitally excluded.

Among those without phones, the cost of the device is cited as the primary obstacle. While basic phones are more affordable than smartphones, the report notes that even these can be out of reach for the poorest households, especially in rural areas. Without addressing device affordability, efforts to expand mobile money risk leaving behind the very groups they aim to serve.

The report disclosed that even when phones and accounts are available, digital capability remains a challenge. The report finds that only about half of mobile money account owners in Sub-Saharan Africa protect their phones with passwords, compared with much higher shares in other regions.

Limited digital literacy raises concerns about fraud, mistaken transfers, and scams, which in turn undermines trust in mobile financial services.

Trust issues are further reinforced by negative user experiences. Only about half of the adults in the region who sent money to the wrong person using mobile money reported getting it back, according to the report. Such experiences can discourage first-time users and lead dormant users to abandon their accounts.

A large untapped opportunity

Despite these challenges, the report points to a significant opportunity. In Sub-Saharan Africa, about a quarter of adults without accounts already own a mobile phone, have official ID, and have a SIM card registered in their own name, meaning they have all the prerequisites for mobile money adoption.

“Closing the gap will require coordinated action: reducing the cost of devices, expanding ID coverage, strengthening consumer protection, and designing low-cost products that reflect the financial realities of poor and rural households,” the World Bank argues.

ation for Africa, turning ambition into scalable capital and risk mitigation solutions.


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E-Financial

AfDB Group Mobilises Global Private Capital to Close Africa’s Financing Gap

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Building on the successful conclusion of the 17th replenishment of the African Development Fund (ADF-17), which mobilised $11 billion for Africa’s most vulnerable countries, the African Development Bank Group and the Government of the United Kingdom convened global investors and private sector leaders in London to accelerate a new phase of private capital mobilisation for Africa’s development.

The inaugural Africa Private Capital Mobilisation Day, held on 17 December at Lancaster House, brought together more than 150 senior decision-makers from private equity firms, sovereign wealth funds, pension funds, insurers, philanthropies, and development finance institutions and export credit agencies—marking a decisive shift from dialogue to execution.

The high-level event was hosted by the African Development Bank Group in partnership with UK government institutions, the Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office, UK Export Finance and British International Investment, reflecting a shared ambition to scale private capital flows into African economies.

Speaking at the opening, African Development Bank Group President Dr Sidi Ould Tah described the event as a natural continuation of the ADF-17 replenishment process and a decisive step toward addressing Africa’s estimated $402 billion annual development financing gap.

“We will build on recent engagements with development finance institutions, export credit agencies, pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, insurers, and philanthropic partners to advance concrete initiatives under our vision for a New African Financial Architecture,” said Dr Ould Tah.

The Africa Private Capital Mobilisation Day aligns with President Ould Tah’s Four Cardinal Points vision, which focuses on unlocking Africa’s capital potential, strengthening financial sovereignty, transforming demographic growth into a dividend, and delivering resilient infrastructure and value chains.

UK Minister for Development, Jenny Chapman said, “We are delighted that President Ould Tah decided to hold the first Private Capital Mobilisation Day here in London, recognising the critical role of the City of London in mobilising investment for Africa. The UK’s shifting role—from donor to investor—will support countries who want to grow their economies and ultimately ultimately exit the need for aid.”

The programme featured focused discussions on reshaping perceptions of risk in Africa, designing innovative financial platforms, and mobilising capital in fragile and frontier markets.

New analysis on the Global Emerging Markets Risk Database delivered by the Center for Global Development presented new evidence showing that long-term lending to African borrowers has historically been significantly less risky than commonly perceived.

Sector-focused discussions underscored the strategic role of healthcare and aviation in strengthening Africa’s economic resilience, productivity and integration. Participants were introduced to two flagship initiatives championed by the Bank Group and its partners:

– The Africa Medicines and Equipment Facility, developed in partnership with the Gates Foundation, will provide African countries with predictable, timely, and affordable financing to secure essential medicines and medical equipment.

– The Integrated Aviation Transformation Programme for Africa—supported by a dedicated blended-finance facility—aims to modernise and expand Africa’s aviation ecosystem—from airports and airlines to enabling services critical to trade, tourism, and regional integration.

In parallel, President Ould Tah convened a closed-door roundtable with senior executives from approximately 30 leading institutional investors to explore the launch of an Africa-focused Private Sector Innovation Lab. The proposed platform would serve as a dedicated space to co-create new financing instruments, partnership models, and risk-sharing solutions tailored to African markets.

The outcomes of the Africa Private Capital Mobilisation Day are captured in the London Communiqué, setting out clear commitments by the African Development Bank Group and its partners to scale private capital mobilisation for Africa.

Further work will go into setting out priority actions and implementation pathways to scale private capital mobilisation for Africa, turning ambition into scalable capital and risk mitigation solutions.


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FIRS says NIN, CAC Numbers to Serve as Tax IDs from 2026

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The Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) has announced that the National Identification Number (NIN) will automatically serve as the Tax Identification Number (TIN) for individual Nigerians beginning in 2026.

The clarification was issued on Monday through a public awareness campaign on the new tax laws shared by the Service on X.

According to the FIRS, registered businesses will also no longer need a separate Tax Identification Number, as their Corporate Affairs Commission (CAC) registration numbers will now function as their official tax identifiers under the revised tax framework.

The announcement follows public concerns over aspects of the new tax laws that require a Tax ID for certain transactions, including the operation and ownership of bank accounts.

Providing further explanation, the FIRS said the Nigeria Tax Administration Act (NTAA), scheduled to take effect in January 2026, mandates the use of a Tax ID for specified transactions. It, however, noted that the requirement is not entirely new, stressing that it has been in existence since the Finance Act of 2019 but has now been strengthened.

“The Tax ID unifies all Tax Identification Numbers previously issued by the FIRS and State Internal Revenue Services into a single identifier,” the Service said.

“For individuals, your NIN automatically serves as your Tax ID, while for registered companies, your CAC RC number is used. You do not need a physical card, as the Tax ID is a unique number linked directly to your identity.”

The FIRS explained that the new system is intended to simplify identification processes, eliminate duplication, close gaps that enable tax evasion, and promote fairness by ensuring that all individuals earning taxable income contribute accordingly.

The agency also urged Nigerians to ignore misinformation surrounding the reform, assuring the public that the new tax framework is designed to improve efficiency and transparency in tax administration.

Meanwhile, the Chairman of the Presidential Committee on Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms, Taiwo Oyedele, disclosed that banks will be required to request a TIN from all taxable Nigerians as part of the federal government’s new tax administration framework, which will take effect on January 1, 2026.


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