E-Financial
Is Nigeria Heading for a Technical Recession?
By Lukman Otunuga, Senior Research Analyst at FXTM,
Nigeria’s monetary and fiscal policymakers face enormous challenges as the country confronts a looming technical recession just three years after the last downturn in 2017.
The COVID-19 pandemic circumstances have combined with low Oil demand and prices to brew up a perfect storm. Buffeted by the strong headwinds, Nigeria’s second-quarter GDP shrank by 6.1 per cent, the biggest drop since 2004.
Government revenues which rely on Oil sales shrank along with the demand for crude Oil. Besides that, low Oil prices may pressure foreign exchange earnings and reserves, as 90 per cent of Nigeria’s currency earnings stem from sales of crude Oil.
Country remains exposed to external risks
The second-quarter contraction highlights Nigeria’s exposure to external risks around the Oil markets, redoubling the urgency behind the state’s diversification efforts.
The World Bank expects Nigeria to face the worst economic recession since the 1980s because of the collapse in Oil prices. It projects the economy to shrink by 3.2 per cent for the full-year 2020 on the condition that Nigeria contains COVID-19 by the third quarter. If not, the contraction will be worse, according to the World Bank.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is more pessimistic about Nigeria’s economic outlook. It sees GDP shrinking by 5.4 per cent this year, the biggest decrease in 40 years. Goldman Sachs puts the full-year GDP contraction at a five per cent GDP contraction, closer to the IMF’s than to the World Bank.
The coronavirus lockdown weighed on the economy, as domestic and international activity caved in at the same time.
Domestic risks must not be overlooked
The economic contraction presents significant risks around consumer spending and investor confidence. The pandemic also triggered a higher threat of poverty. The World Bank sees the poverty rate rising to 42.5 per cent from its previous estimate of 40 per cent in 2020.
Along with the human cost, a rise in the poverty rate can affect macroeconomic stability and pose setbacks to economic benchmarks like inflation, unemployment, consumer spending and fiscal spending.
These macroeconomic statistics are already highly sensitive to further risks, like a second wave of COVID-19 or another Oil price collapse.
Unemployment stood at 27.1 per cent in the second quarter. The inflation rate rose to 12.8 per cent in July, the highest since March 2018, meaning a reduction of purchasing power. These benchmarks are likely to remain sources of concern in the second half of the year.
US Dollar scarcity remains another threat to growth, with Naira weakness and ongoing foreign exchange restrictions likely punishing the non-Oil sector.
Adding to the macro-economic challenges around COVID-19, Nigeria will have to reduce Oil production in August and September to comply fully with OPEC’s supply cuts. Coming on top of lower Oil prices, reduced production means decreased government revenues and foreign exchange earnings. An accompanying knock-on effect on GDP is likely.
In conclusion, Nigeria is likely heading for a technical recession. If the country contains COVID-19 and pro-actively prepares for more localised outbreaks, the World Bank believes this may support GDP and limit the economic damages. Over the last three months, COVID-19 cases have risen to 52,227 cases with 38,945 recoveries. The number of deaths stands at 1002, at the time of writing. When compared to South Africa’s 607,045 cases, Nigeria is in a better public health position. If the authorities limit the spread of coronavirus and continue to manage the situation effectively, Nigeria’s economy has better chances of recovering in line with a global recovery in the medium term.
E-Financial
CBN Fines 29 Banks N15Bn for Violation of Money Laundering, Terrorism Financing Regulations
Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has said penalties totaling N15 billion were imposed on 29 banks for violations of Anti-Money Laundering (AML) and Counter-Terrorism Financing (CTF) regulations.
This was disclosed by Olayemi Cardoso, CBN governor, during the 2024 Bankers’ Night organised by the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria (CIBN) in Lagos.
In his remarks, Cardoso stressed the gravity of these violations and stressed the need for the affected banks to address the systemic weaknesses that allowed such lapses to occur.
“In addition to these penalties, the banks are required to address the root causes of the lapses, which is crucial for improving regulatory effectiveness. Historically, the industry has struggled with recurring issues, but we are confident that this approach will help change that narrative,” Cardoso stated.
The Broader Implications of Compliance
The CBN governor highlighted the broader impact of compliance on the financial ecosystem, noting that institutions that prioritise regulatory adherence contribute to national growth and stability.
“A bank that prioritises compliance does more than protect itself -it strengthens the entire financial ecosystem. It directs financial resources toward growth, innovation, and prosperity rather than crime and corruption. Together, we must exceed standards, demonstrating to the public and the world that we are stewards of integrity and trust,” he added.
Cardoso also pointed out that the consequences of non-compliance extend beyond regulatory penalties. According to him, issues such as money laundering, fraud, and corruption undermine the foundation of the financial system.
“The cost of inaction is profound—fraud undermines confidence, corruption erodes trust, and money laundering perpetuates organized crime,” he remarked.
The governor articulated a vision for a robust compliance culture across Nigeria’s banking industry. He emphasised that financial institutions must not only comply with regulatory standards but also adopt a proactive approach to identifying and mitigating risks.
Cardoso explained that executives and boards must lead by example by making compliance a strategic priority and championing zero tolerance for breaches—not just in policy but in practice. He urged financial institutions to anticipate vulnerabilities and address risks in high-risk areas proactively.
He also called for the education of staff to recognise red flags and report concerns about fraud, money laundering, or unethical behavior, ensuring they are protected when they do so.
Additionally, he stressed the importance of conducting enhanced due diligence for high-risk clients, politically exposed persons, and vendors to prevent illicit funds from flowing through financial institutions.
The governor emphasised the need for industry-wide collaboration to combat systemic threats. This includes sharing intelligence on emerging risks, cooperating with law enforcement agencies, and maintaining open communication with regulators.
Cardoso acknowledged the challenges facing the sector, from cybersecurity threats to disparities in financial inclusion. However, he expressed optimism that with strengthened compliance frameworks, the Nigerian banking industry could address these challenges effectively.
Reflecting on the broader implications, he said, “Compliance is not just a regulatory requirement; it is central to our mission of fostering trust and integrity within the financial system. Together, we can build an industry that not only meets but exceeds global standards.”
Credit: Business Day
E-Financial
DBN Bags Financial Inclusion Award for Dedication to MSMEs
The Development Bank of Nigeria (DBN) has been honoured with the Financial Inclusion Leadership Award for its dedication to empowering Nigerian Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) through accessible financing.
DBN was honored with the award at the ‘Champions of Inclusion Nigeria Financial Inclusion Awards’ during the International Financial Inclusion Conference (IFIC) 2024, hosted by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) in partnership with the World Bank.
Tony Okpanachi, DBN’s managing director/CEO, expressed pride in winning the award, stating that it validated the bank’s dedication to providing financial access to Nigerian MSMEs.
“We are honoured to receive the Financial Inclusion Leadership Award, which is a testament to our bank’s commitment to expanding access to financial services for all Nigerians. This award recognises our efforts to bridge the financial inclusion gap, particularly for a priority sector like the MSMEs,” he stated.
Okpanachi noted that the award was a validation of the bank’s strategic focus geared towards financial inclusion for small businesses, “and we are proud to be at the forefront of this initiative that drives that. We will continue to innovate and expand our financial inclusion programmes, ensuring that more Nigerian small and startup businesses have access to services.”
Bonaventure Okhaimo, chief operating officer of the Bank, while receiving the award on behalf of DBN, appreciated the organisers for the recognition, describing it as a significant milestone.
Okhaimo said the recognition was a significant milestone that proved the dedication of the bank to drive economic growth and create wider opportunities for MSMEs.
The COO stated further, “This award will motivate us to continue pushing the boundaries of financial inclusion, exploring more innovative solutions and partnerships to expand our reach and impact. We are committed to ensuring that more small businesses and startup enterprises in Nigeria have access to financial services, this award will further inspire us to accelerate our efforts in this regard.”
The Financial Inclusion Leadership Award is a key highlight of the International Financial Inclusion Conference (IFIC) and celebrates exceptional contributions to actions aimed at achieving the goals outlined in Nigeria’s National Financial Inclusion Strategy 3.0.
The award recognizes organizations and individuals across various sectors who are driving meaningful dialogue, and broadening access to financial services for low-income excluded priority segments, including the MSMEs sector, with inadequate funding being one of the challenges that inhibit the growth of small businesses in the country.
E-Financial
MoneyMaster Promotes Financial Inclusion, Offers more Bonus to Customers
Julius Arhebun, the Head of Agency Banking a Nigeria’s leading payment service bank, MoneyMaster, has disclosed that the promotion of financial inclusion is one of the core mandates of the service.
He said this recently as the bank introduced a new 100MB data offer for every transaction made in the offer, which is available for Glo customers using the bank’s USSD banking code, *995#. The initiative is meant to incentivize the unbanked and underbanked population to ease the creation of their own mobile wallet via its USSD banking platform.
According to him, the offer builds on the various financial education “we have been providing online and across our various customer touchpoints”.
He added that “with this new 100MB offer, we want to encourage Nigerians in the unbanked and underbanked pools to be financially included by having at least a mobile wallet. The account number of this mobile wallet is derived from their mobile number, and can be easily recalled”.
MoneyMaster PSB is a leading provider of innovative digital financial products and services that transform lives and contribute to sustainable living.
The PSB has the mission to deepen financial inclusion and has been instrumental in providing financial technology services to bridge the gap between the banked, underbanked and unbanked population.
The payment service bank recently unveiled a 10 percent data bonus for existing and new customers who are on the Glo network for recharges of N1000 or more. The offer has been adjudged one of the best in the country based on the volume of data on offer to customers. The data purchases have a 30-day validity while unused data can be rolled over upon next plan subscription.
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