E-Financial
Is Nigeria Heading for a Technical Recession?

By Lukman Otunuga, Senior Research Analyst at FXTM,
Nigeria’s monetary and fiscal policymakers face enormous challenges as the country confronts a looming technical recession just three years after the last downturn in 2017.
The COVID-19 pandemic circumstances have combined with low Oil demand and prices to brew up a perfect storm. Buffeted by the strong headwinds, Nigeria’s second-quarter GDP shrank by 6.1 per cent, the biggest drop since 2004.
Government revenues which rely on Oil sales shrank along with the demand for crude Oil. Besides that, low Oil prices may pressure foreign exchange earnings and reserves, as 90 per cent of Nigeria’s currency earnings stem from sales of crude Oil.
Country remains exposed to external risks
The second-quarter contraction highlights Nigeria’s exposure to external risks around the Oil markets, redoubling the urgency behind the state’s diversification efforts.
The World Bank expects Nigeria to face the worst economic recession since the 1980s because of the collapse in Oil prices. It projects the economy to shrink by 3.2 per cent for the full-year 2020 on the condition that Nigeria contains COVID-19 by the third quarter. If not, the contraction will be worse, according to the World Bank.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is more pessimistic about Nigeria’s economic outlook. It sees GDP shrinking by 5.4 per cent this year, the biggest decrease in 40 years. Goldman Sachs puts the full-year GDP contraction at a five per cent GDP contraction, closer to the IMF’s than to the World Bank.
The coronavirus lockdown weighed on the economy, as domestic and international activity caved in at the same time.
Domestic risks must not be overlooked
The economic contraction presents significant risks around consumer spending and investor confidence. The pandemic also triggered a higher threat of poverty. The World Bank sees the poverty rate rising to 42.5 per cent from its previous estimate of 40 per cent in 2020.
Along with the human cost, a rise in the poverty rate can affect macroeconomic stability and pose setbacks to economic benchmarks like inflation, unemployment, consumer spending and fiscal spending.
These macroeconomic statistics are already highly sensitive to further risks, like a second wave of COVID-19 or another Oil price collapse.
Unemployment stood at 27.1 per cent in the second quarter. The inflation rate rose to 12.8 per cent in July, the highest since March 2018, meaning a reduction of purchasing power. These benchmarks are likely to remain sources of concern in the second half of the year.
US Dollar scarcity remains another threat to growth, with Naira weakness and ongoing foreign exchange restrictions likely punishing the non-Oil sector.
Adding to the macro-economic challenges around COVID-19, Nigeria will have to reduce Oil production in August and September to comply fully with OPEC’s supply cuts. Coming on top of lower Oil prices, reduced production means decreased government revenues and foreign exchange earnings. An accompanying knock-on effect on GDP is likely.
In conclusion, Nigeria is likely heading for a technical recession. If the country contains COVID-19 and pro-actively prepares for more localised outbreaks, the World Bank believes this may support GDP and limit the economic damages. Over the last three months, COVID-19 cases have risen to 52,227 cases with 38,945 recoveries. The number of deaths stands at 1002, at the time of writing. When compared to South Africa’s 607,045 cases, Nigeria is in a better public health position. If the authorities limit the spread of coronavirus and continue to manage the situation effectively, Nigeria’s economy has better chances of recovering in line with a global recovery in the medium term.
E-Financial
SEC Alerts Public on Silverkuun, Trending Dubious Investment Schemes

Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has warned the public against investing in unregistered investment schemes, including Silverkuun Investment Cooperative Society/Silverkuun Limited.
In a circular issued in Abuja, yesterday, the commission said its attention had been drawn to the activities of these entities, which falsely present themselves as investment advisers and fund managers in the Nigerian capital market.
“The attention of the Securities and Exchange Commission has been drawn to the activities of Silverkuun Investment Cooperative Society/Silverkuun Limited which holds itself out as an Investment Adviser/Fund Manager.
“The Commission hereby informs the public that Silverkuun Investment Cooperative Society/Silverkuun Limited is not registered to operate in any capacity in the Nigerian Capital Market.”
SEC advised the public to refrain from engaging with Silverkuun Investment Cooperative Society/Silverkuun Limited or its representatives in respect of any business in the Nigerian capital market.
“The Commission uses this medium to reiterate that transacting in the Nigerian Capital Market with unregistered and unregulated entities exposes investors to financial risk including fraud and potential loss of investment.
“The investing public is therefore reminded to verify the status of companies and entities offering investment opportunities on the Commission’s portal before transacting with them,” the SEC added.
Dr. Emomotimi Agama, director-general of the SEC, recently warned that the Commission would not hesitate to shut down the operations of such unregistered entities while also ensuring that the promoters are made to face the full weight of the law.
Agama said, “we will shut down their operations and the promoters will be made to face the full weight of the law.
“In a major reform, ISA 2025 officially brings digital assets under the SEC’s regulatory purview, defining them as securities and mandating registration for all virtual asset service providers (VASPs) and digital asset exchanges. This development aims to close the regulatory vacuum that has allowed many Ponzi-style platforms to thrive under the guise of cryptocurrency and digital finance.”
Agama also emphasized the Commission’s education-focused strategy to combat fraud through podcasts, digital campaigns, and the introduction of capital market literacy in schools and universities, the SEC aims to equip Nigerians with the knowledge to detect and avoid dubious investments.
E-Financial
Africa Cross-border Payments Set to Hit $1 trillion by 2035

Africa’s cross-border payments market is on track to hit $1 trillion by 2035, according to a new report by venture capital firm Oui Capital. Titled “Africa’s Cross-Border Payment Landscape—a deep dive into the systems, players, and shifts shaping Africa’s cross-border payment flows,” the report states that the market is currently valued at $329 billion and growing at a compound annual growth rate of 12%.
It identifies Africa’s booming digital adoption, increasing intra-African trade, and a surge in mobile money usage as the key growth drivers.
Despite the impressive growth, the report highlights systemic inefficiencies.
“Legacy rails, double currency conversions, and fragmented regulations still siphon billions in hidden costs,” Oui Capital states, noting that the continent continues to have the highest global remittance costs, averaging 7–8%.
However, digital innovation is helping reshape the landscape. Mobile money is now a key channel, with 30% of Sub-Saharan remittances flowing through mobile wallets.
In 2022, Africa accounted for 66% of global mobile money transaction value, demonstrating the rapid formalisation of what was once a predominantly informal cash ecosystem.
Oui Capital sees significant investment potential in addressing these inefficiencies. “Infrastructure plays—interoperable API layers, decentralised FX liquidity pools, and PAPSS integrations—represent $10 billion-plus opportunities,” the report says.
The Pan-African Payment and Settlement System is one such initiative pushing for local currency settlements and reduced reliance on USD/EUR clearing, which presently adds around $5 billion in annual costs.
According to the report, cryptocurrencies and Stablecoins are emerging as promising alternatives, cutting remittance costs by up to 60% in markets with clear regulations.
“Fintech APIs are already pushing fees as low as 1.5–3%,” the report notes.
Still, the venture capital firm warns that challenges persist as only 55% of African jurisdictions allow full electronic KYC, limiting the scalability of fintech solutions.
The report urges founders to go beyond peer-to-peer transfers by embedding services like lending and insurance.
“Africa’s payments race is now a scale game. Those that solve for liquidity, compliance and cost will define the continent’s digital trade backbone over the next decade,” it concludes.
E-Financial
SANEF, CIBN Partner to Expand Agency Banking Certification

Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria has expanded its Agency Banking Certification Programme through a tripartite collaboration between the Institute, FIC, and SANEF Limited.
This partnership according Prof. Pius Deji Olanrewaju, President/Chairman of Council the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria, CIBN, is timely and strategic, “as we aim to broaden the reach of the certification across Nigeria’s agent banking sector. With SANEF’s deep integration in the financial inclusion ecosystem and established relationships with leading super agents, we are confident that this collaboration will strengthen the quality and visibility of the programme.
“The goal is clear, to enhance professionalism among agent bankers, support the national financial inclusion strategy, and contribute to building trust and integrity within this growing segment of the financial services sector. This collaboration presents an excellent opportunity for further implementation of the competency framework for the banking industry in Nigeria”.
He noted that the collaboration among others is part of his LEGACY agenda which highlights the multifaceted role of financial institutions in shaping Nigeria’s economic future.
The letter C in the LEGACY agenda refers to Competence in the banking and Finance industry, which is a very crucial factor in the banking and finance sector. Competent individuals in this industry are equipped with the necessary knowledge and skills to effectively manage financial resources. Individuals with expertise in this field can contribute to the growth and stability of the economy.
Mrs. Uche Uzoebo, Managing Director/Chief Executive Officer, Shared Agency Network Expansion Facilities, SANEF, described the memorandum of Understanding, MoU, as a visionary partnership that seeks to expand Financial Inclusion through Agent banking training, Financial Literacy and knowledge impartation, an objective that forms a key pivot of what SANEF represents.
“Over the years, SANEF, in strong collaboration with our key stakeholders, Banks and Licenced Super-Agents/Mobile Money Operators and other Financial Service Providers, have continued to deepen the frontiers of Financial Inclusion and agent bank. Financial Literacy and training have remained a key part of this objective.
“This MOU ceremony is a fulfillment of a shared vision through the expansion of Agent Banking, Financial Literacy, capacity building, thought leadership, training and competency.
She further explained that the agreement provides a training structure with well-curated and knowledge filled training modules and materials that will deepen the knowledge and capacity in agent banking.
“It will go ahead to deepen and expand the knowledge and capacity of all participants that will take part in this training and we believe that with the quality and cooperation of all parties present, this very important objective of impartation of knowledge and thought leadership, grooming and training minds to be empowered and learned and contributing our quota to nation building and be a better place,” she added.
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