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Is Nigeria Heading for a Technical Recession?

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By Lukman Otunuga, Senior Research Analyst at FXTM,

Nigeria’s monetary and fiscal policymakers face enormous challenges as the country confronts a looming technical recession just three years after the last downturn in 2017.

The COVID-19 pandemic circumstances have combined with low Oil demand and prices to brew up a perfect storm. Buffeted by the strong headwinds, Nigeria’s second-quarter GDP shrank by 6.1 per cent, the biggest drop since 2004.

Government revenues which rely on Oil sales shrank along with the demand for crude Oil. Besides that, low Oil prices may pressure foreign exchange earnings and reserves, as 90 per cent of Nigeria’s currency earnings stem from sales of crude Oil.

Country remains exposed to external risks

The second-quarter contraction highlights Nigeria’s exposure to external risks around the Oil markets, redoubling the urgency behind the state’s diversification efforts.

The World Bank expects Nigeria to face the worst economic recession since the 1980s because of the collapse in Oil prices. It projects the economy to shrink by 3.2 per cent for the full-year 2020 on the condition that Nigeria contains COVID-19 by the third quarter. If not, the contraction will be worse, according to the World Bank.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is more pessimistic about Nigeria’s economic outlook. It sees GDP shrinking by 5.4 per cent this year, the biggest decrease in 40 years. Goldman Sachs puts the full-year GDP contraction at a five per cent GDP contraction, closer to the IMF’s than to the World Bank.

The coronavirus lockdown weighed on the economy, as domestic and international activity caved in at the same time.

Domestic risks must not be overlooked

The economic contraction presents significant risks around consumer spending and investor confidence. The pandemic also triggered a higher threat of poverty. The World Bank sees the poverty rate rising to 42.5 per cent from its previous estimate of 40 per cent in 2020.

Along with the human cost, a rise in the poverty rate can affect macroeconomic stability and pose setbacks to economic benchmarks like inflation, unemployment, consumer spending and fiscal spending.

These macroeconomic statistics are already highly sensitive to further risks, like a second wave of COVID-19 or another Oil price collapse.

Unemployment stood at 27.1 per cent in the second quarter. The inflation rate rose to 12.8 per cent in July, the highest since March 2018, meaning a reduction of purchasing power. These benchmarks are likely to remain sources of concern in the second half of the year.

US Dollar scarcity remains another threat to growth, with Naira weakness and ongoing foreign exchange restrictions likely punishing the non-Oil sector.

What role will OPEC play?

Adding to the macro-economic challenges around COVID-19, Nigeria will have to reduce Oil production in August and September to comply fully with OPEC’s supply cuts. Coming on top of lower Oil prices, reduced production means decreased government revenues and foreign exchange earnings. An accompanying knock-on effect on GDP is likely.

In conclusion, Nigeria is likely heading for a technical recession. If the country contains COVID-19 and pro-actively prepares for more localised outbreaks, the World Bank believes this may support GDP and limit the economic damages. Over the last three months, COVID-19 cases have risen to 52,227 cases with 38,945 recoveries. The number of deaths stands at 1002, at the time of writing. When compared to South Africa’s 607,045 cases, Nigeria is in a better public health position. If the authorities limit the spread of coronavirus and continue to manage the situation effectively, Nigeria’s economy has better chances of recovering in line with a global recovery in the medium term.   

 


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E-Financial

Cybersecurity Expert Raises Alarm, Warns against Use ATM Card PIN for Online Transactions

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Dr. Kingsley Chibuzor Aguoru, a Nigerian-British Chartered Engineer and Doctor of Information Security, has petitioned the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to immediately put a halt to card PIN usage for online payments to protect Nigerians from being fleeced of their hard earned money.

Cybersecurity Expert Raises Alarm, Warns against Use ATM Card PIN for Online Transactions

He said he was making the passionate appeal in order to secure financial practices in the country.

According to the UK based chartered Engineer, with his over 20 years of experience in financial technologies and security, who pioneered the concept of OTPs for card-not-payments, he was compelled to bring attention to the critical flaws in the Nigeria’s current online card payment practices, which exposes customers to unnecessary risks and significant danger.

Specifically, according to Aguoru, the continued use of PIN in online transactions put Nigerians at a grave risk of being defrauded.

Aguoru noted that card PINs were designed for face-to-face transactions at ATMs and POS terminals where secure encryption methods protect users rather than online usage.

In the petition cited by this paper, titled: “Urgent Call to Ban Card PIN Usage for Online Payments in Nigeria”, Dr. Aguoru explained: “In 2005, I developed a solution to tackle prevalent fraud in card-not-present transactions in the United Kingdom using both online and offline OTP models, drawing on Cartesian geometry. Although major networks like Visa and Mastercard declined the innovation at the time, my OTP model has since become a standard worldwide for authorization.

”Nigerian payment providers, such as Paystack and Flutterwave, and Interswitch still require card PINs for online card transactions, a practice virtually obsolete elsewhere or not ever used. Card PINs are designed for face-to-face transactions at ATMs and POS terminals, where secure encryption methods protect users. Using them online exposes consumers to serious cyber risks, including phishing, keylogger, man-in-the-middle attacks, even some dubious staff at the payment provider company can misuse customer’s PIN captured on the internet.”

He continued: “Nigerians are already familiar with OTPs for securing online transactions. However, it is critical to understand that OTPs should never be combined with Card PINs in an online setting. Instead, global best practices require using OTPs or Multi-Factor Authentication alone for online payments, which adds a secure layer of protection, an alternative to using card PINs online is to issue hardware card readers. With these devices, customers would simply insert their card, enter their PIN directly on the reader, and receive a generated OTP, keeping the entire process offline and secure.”

Enumerating the role of CBN in financial matters in the present digital age, Dr. Aguoru called on the apex financial regulator to protect consumers from cyber vulnerabilities. “I respectfully call on the CBN to address these issues head-on by prohibiting web PIN entry for card payments and enforcing OTP or MFA requirements across all payment providers.”

He advised the CBN to urgently steps forward for the safety of Nigerian cardholders by banning the use of card pins for online transactions and mandate the use of OTPs or other dynamic authentication methods, such as authorization through mobile banking apps.

He noted that there was need for consumers to be educated on safe online payments practice to minimize exposure to phishing and other cyber threats.

He said it was also necessary for the apex bank to enforce industry wide compliance with modern security standards to protect Nigerian customers, especially on the web, through policies, such as security, payments compliance policies.

Aguoru emphasized that by adopting these measures, the CBN will greatly reduce the risks Nigerian consumers face and bring the nation’s payment systems in with international best practice.

 


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E-Financial

MoneyMaster PSB Customers to Enjoy 10% Data Bonus Per Recharge

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Customers of foremost payment service bank, MoneyMaster Payment Service Bank (MMPSB), will henceforth, enjoy a 10 percent data bonus offer on every recharge above N1,000 on their Glo lines.

The data bundle offers one of the highest volumes in the country and the data purchases come with 30-day validity, with an automatic rollover of unused data upon subscription for a new plan.

The offer, which is meant to reward loyal customers and new ones, also underscores the bank’s dedication to empowering Nigerians to master their money via efficient offers that make every naira count.

The 10 percent bonus offer is available for Glo customers on banking channels including the MoneyMaster PSB app, USSD banking code *995# and MoneyMaster PSB Web banking.

MoneyMaster is a provider of innovative digital financial products and services that transform lives. It has the mission to deepen financial inclusion and has been pivotal in providing financial technology services to bridge the gaps between the banked, underbanked and unbanked population.

Mr. Julius Arhebun, head of Agency Banking at MoneyMaster, said, the offer shows the bank’s commitment to offering its customers products that enhance their lifestyle and help them master their money.

“With this offer, our existing and new customers can enjoy extended access to quality internet services whether it is streaming their favourite content, browsing top sites, or catching up on trends on their favourite social media apps”, he noted.

He further explained that existing customers can buy a data bundle of N1000 or above from their mobile wallets, savings account or individual current account via our USSD banking code *995#, mobile app or web banking. For new customers, the offer comes via opening accounts via the USSD banking platform or downloading the mobile application.

 


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UBA Set to Establish Subsidiary in Saudi Arabia

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United Bank for Africa (UBA) Plc, Africa’s Global Bank, has set the wheels in motion to expand its operations in the Middle East with plan ongoing to open a subsidiary in Saudi Arabia, its largest economy.

UBA Set to Establish Subsidiary in Saudi Arabia

This move which is expected to happen within the next year will mark the bank’s second subsidiary in the Gulf Region, following the expansion of its business to the United Arab Emirates in 2022.

Muyiwa Akinyemi, group deputy managing director, UBA, who disclosed this during a panel session during the 8th Edition of the Future Investment Initiative (FII) in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia and in an interview with Arise TV, underscored the bank’s strategic commitment towards fostering Africa’s growth through infrastructure development, youth empowerment, and sustainable partnerships across key global markets.

He said, “Opening a presence in Saudi Arabia represents the next step for us in connecting the Africa-Gulf region. We are excited to bring UBA’s expertise in financial services to Saudi Arabia, where we aim to facilitate knowledge transfer and create strong economic linkages.

“This venture will further enable us to access Saudi expertise in food security, energy transition, and sustainable practices, which are all critical for Africa’s continued development.”

While emphasising the importance of Africa as a strategic investment destination for long-term capital, he said, “Africa’s infrastructure deficit is an opportunity for investors worldwide. Our pitch to the Gulf and Southeast Asia emphasizes that Africa must be part of their investment horizon. Today, food security is paramount as our population expands.

Akinyemi also highlighted the bank’s dedication to nurturing Africa’s youth talent through entrepreneurship.

“Guided by our Group Chairman’s efforts with the Tony Elumelu Foundation, UBA is committed to supporting young entrepreneurs in tech, agriculture, and entertainment, which are all burgeoning sectors in Africa. With such a young and dynamic population, we see enormous potential for innovation and growth.”

He also reiterated the bank’s continuous support for Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) in Africa and beyond as he outlined the bank’s commitment to these businesses, which he referred to as key players in the African economy and vehicles for employment and economic growth.

“SMEs are the backbone of economic development in Africa. They contribute significantly to job creation and value chains, particularly within Nigeria. Over the last year, UBA has committed billions to support SMEs across Africa, and our network of over 20 countries enables us to make a substantial impact.”

During the panel discussions, Akinyemi took time to emphasize UBA’s longstanding experience on the continent as it navigates an ever-evolving investment landscape, adding that “As investors, we focus on infrastructure and sustainable projects that encourage economic prosperity while addressing pressing issues such as talent migration.

“Our goal is to ensure that people can thrive in Africa without needing to relocate. By investing in local talent and fostering growth sectors, we contribute to building the next generation of global innovators right here in Africa,” he noted.

The DMD further articulated UBA’s approach to risk management on the continent, emphasizing that the bank’s 75-year history has uniquely equipped it with insights and strategies to navigate diverse markets.

“With over seven decades of experience, Africa is what we know, and that knowledge allows us to manage risks effectively. We see tremendous opportunities in various sectors across the continent, and our continued investments are driven by a commitment to bring economic empowerment to communities, increase GDP, and improve socioeconomic quality. Our anniversary is a celebration of UBA’s legacy of contributing to Africa’s progress. We look forward to leveraging this milestone to drive even greater impact across sectors and empower future generations,” he said.

United Bank for Africa Plc is a leading Pan-African financial institution, offering banking services to more than forty-five million customers, across 1,000 business offices and customer touch points in 20 African countries. With presence in New York, London, Paris and Dubai, UBA is connecting people and businesses across Africa through retail, commercial and corporate banking, innovative cross-border payments and remittances, trade finance and ancillary banking services.


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