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JP Morgan Recommends UBA Shares over 45% Upside Potential

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Phillips Oduoza is the GMD/CEO of UBA Group
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Investors that take position on UBA shares now have the chance of making as much as 45% return over the next 12 months writes US based Investment banking  giant, JP Morgan, in its latest analysis of Nigerian banks.

“UBA offers an attractive 45% upside potential over 12 months, among the highest in CEEMEA banks” according to the JP Morgan report released October 2013.

CEEMEA is an acronym for Central and Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa. It is used by investment analysts to refer to reports that cover economies or businesses in this region.

“We think UBA’s valuation, despite a strong rally since the beginning of the year, offers an opportunity to buy into probably the deepest valuation discount in CEEMEA banks at current levels” states the JP Morgan Report while explaining the rational for recommending UBA’s shares. 

The report also notes that investors may be missing out on the opportunity presented by UBA shares despite improving fundamentals of the bank. “However, consensus is catching up fast – UBA has the best buy, or hold, or sell ratio on Bloomberg consensus.”

The JP Morgan report also explains that UBA benefits from significant balance sheet liquidity noting that the bank’s loan to deposit ratio of 37% as at half year 2013 was the lowest among CEEMEA banks covered by the investment bank.

JP Morgan however forecast that UBA’s loan to deposit ratio is “conservatively expected to rise gradually to 45% by 2016 year end. 

JP Morgan notes that UBA’s loan to deposit ratio is “reflected in UBA’s market shares where it is second in Nigeria in deposits with 13% market share, but has lowest lending market share at 8% among the four biggest banks JP Morgan tracks in Nigeria. 

UBA pan-African presence is also seen as strength in the bank’s operations. JP Morgan notes that UBA has the highest number of subsidiaries in Africa among the top-tier Nigerian banks with positions in 18 African countries outside Nigeria and potential to drive future revenues on rising intra-Africa trade.

“This pan-African presence and valuation discount increases the attractiveness of UBA as a potential take-out story, in our view, given our understanding on larger regional banks (e.g. South African banks) for pan-African franchises such as UBA’s.”

Notably, “UBA has the lowest mix of Commission on Turnover (COT) growth in its overall fee income mix when compared with peers. Excluding fee income, we see average Net Interest Income (NII) growth of 15% every year from 2013 to 2016” according to the JP Morgan report.

“UBA’s valuation is an opportunity to buy into what may be the most attractive risk-reward in CEEMEA banks; for a 33% valuation discount   versus peers, we estimate UBA offers 23% 2014 year end premium on Return on Equity (ROE) and significantly higher dividend yield of 10% by 2014 year end” 

JP Morgan expects that the Nigerian government’s reforms agenda in oil and gas, power, agriculture and infrastructure sectors will drive the future banking growth, the sector which UBA has recently been highly bullish on with new loan growth targeted at these sectors.

UBA only last week released its third quarter 2013 financial results which shows a significant 26.7% growth in loan portfolio, as the bank positions to take advantage of emerging opportunities  in the power and oil and gas sectors of the Nigerian economy.

The nine-month results put the bank’s new loan portfolio position at N870.4 billion as at September 2013, representing a 26.7% increase on N687.4 billion loan portfolio for full year of 2012. “We increased our exposure to the power, upstream oil and gas and telecoms sectors of the economy” explained Phillips Oduoza, group managing director.

The bank  also announced gross earnings of N188 billion, representing 12.5% increase from N167.1 billion in the same period of last year while interest income rose 18.8% to N133 billion from N112 billion.

There was a significant 28.5% increase in total comprehensive income for the period to N48.74billion, compared with N37.92billion in the same period of last year while the bank closed the first nine months of the year with a profit of N43.4billion.


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E-Financial

NIBBS: Banks Close 29.4m Accounts, Dormant Accounts Hit 33.39m

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Banks in Nigeria closed 29.4 million accounts as of March 2025, according to the latest report by the Nigerian Interbank Settlement System (NIBSS).

NIBBS: Banks Close 29.4m Accounts, Dormant Accounts Hit 33.39m

The figure represents a sharp year-on-year increase of 30.43 per cent from the 22.54 million closed accounts recorded in March 2024.

It also reflects a steady rise in account closures over recent months, with 33.29 million closed accounts reported in February 2025 and 29.43 million in January.

The report also revealed a significant increase in dormant accounts, which surged to 33.39 million in March 2025, up from 19.79 million in the same period in 2024, a 71.3 per cent rise in inactive accounts over the past year.

Despite the spike in closures and dormant accounts, the number of active bank accounts rose from 219.64 million in March 2024 to 320.05 million in March 2025, representing an increase of over 100 million, or 45.7 per cent.

NIBSS defines a dormant account as one that has seen no deposit, withdrawal, transfer, or point-of-sale transaction for a period of six months.

The surge in account closures and dormancy follows the Central Bank of Nigeria’s directive issued in December 2023, mandating commercial banks to restrict Tier-1 accounts not linked to a Bank Verification Number (BVN) and National Identification Number (NIN) by March 1, 2024.

In response to the directive, BVN enrolment increased from 61.6 million in April 2024 to 66.23 million by July 2025, as more Nigerians rushed to meet the CBN’s compliance deadline.

 

 


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Cardoso, CBN Boss Risks Arrest over Alleged N5.2 Trillion Unremitted Funds

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The Joint Committee of the House of Representatives on Public Accounts and Public Assets has threatened to issue a warrant of arrest against Mr. Olayemi Cardoso, governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), over repeated failure to honour its invitations regarding the probe into non-compliance with the Fiscal Responsibility Act 2007 and Finance Act 2020.

Cardoso, CBN Boss Risks Arrest over AllegdedN5.2 Trillion Unremitted Funds

Olayemi Cardoso,, Gov, CBN

In a joint statement released on Friday and signed by Hon. Bamidele Salam and Hon. Ademorin Kuye,  chairmen of the committees, the lawmakers decried the CBN governor’s continued disregard for legislative summons.

The committee is investigating the non-remittance of operating surplus as well as the mismanagement of unclaimed dividends and dormant account balances.

According to the committee, the Office of the Auditor General for the Federation reported a liability of N5.2 trillion in unremitted operating surplus due to the federal government from 2016 to 2022; a claim corroborated by the Fiscal Responsibility Commission in a separate submission to the National Assembly.

The committee cited provisions of the Finance Act 2020, which mandate that unclaimed dividends from publicly listed companies and dormant bank account balances older than six years be transferred into the Unclaimed Fund Trust Fund. The fund is to be managed by a Governing Council led by the Minister of Finance and the Debt Management Office (DMO).

Contrary to this, the CBN maintains that the Financial Institutions Act 2020 empowers it to manage dormant balances.

However, the committee noted that the Attorney General of the Federation has issued a legal opinion affirming that the Finance Act 2020 remains the valid law guiding the management of such funds.

Following extensive submissions, the committee resolved that the CBN must remit N3.64 trillion, representing 70% of the undisputed N5.2 trillion operating surplus, within 14 days from receipt of its June 27, 2025, directive, pending final reconciliation of the disputed amount.

Additionally, the apex bank was directed to submit a detailed report on the total sum of unclaimed dividends and dormant account balances by June 30, 2025.

The CBN was also ordered to transfer these funds into the Unclaimed Fund Trust Fund within 14 days and furnish the House with evidence of the transaction.

The lawmakers expressed frustration that, despite the clear directives and ample time, the CBN governor has failed to respond or appear before the joint committee to provide an explanation.

“In view of this continued defiance, the Committee will be compelled to exercise its constitutional powers to compel Mr. Olayemi Cardoso to appear before it,” the statement warned.

 


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Moody’s Upgrades Ecobank’s Outlook to Stable

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Moody’s has upgraded the outlook on Ecobank Transnational Incorporated’s long-term issuer and senior unsecured debt ratings to stable from negative.

In the latest rating commentary, made available to media on Thursday, Moody’s also affirmed the pan-African banking group’s B3/Not Prime long- and short-term issuer ratings; B3 senior unsecured debt rating; b2 notional Baseline Credit Assessment and b1 Adjusted BCA.

ETI’s subsidiaries operate across 38 countries, including 35 African countries, and total assets of $28.9bn as of March 2025, details from the rating note highlighted. Moody’s said the decision to change the outlook to stable on the long-term issuer and senior unsecured ratings reflects ETI’s resilient financial performance.

The rating upgrade also takes into consideration higher dividends being upstreamed to ETI, resulting in lower double leverage and reduced refinancing risk.

The rating adjustment also reflects an expectation that the recapitalisation process of Ecobank Nigeria Limited will be completed by the end of 2025, with limited impact on the group’s financial fundamentals.

“The stable outlook also captures our expectation that a series of capital-boosting initiatives and actions to cure Ecobank Nigeria’s total capital position will be completed before the end of 2025”, according to the ratings agency.

In May 2025, ETI received shareholder approval to raise $250 million in Additional Tier 1 (AT1) capital and announced the launch of the transaction effective 9 July 2025, of which a portion is expected to be downstreamed to Ecobank Nigeria as AT1 capital during Q3 2025.

Ecobank Nigeria’s plan to raise $200m in AT1 capital was noted in the rating note. The ratings analysts said they consider

“We also note that Ecobank Nigeria’s recent successful offer to tender $150m of its February 2026 $300 million notes and consent to remove the capital adequacy ratio covenant from this bond’s terms alleviates risks of an event of default in Nigeria that would trigger cross default at the ETI level. Over the past year, ETI has shown resilience in its financial performance, which supports our change in outlook to stable. Liquidity risks are being moderated by the group’s gradually improving profitability during 2024 and Q1-2025.

“This has translated into a 22 per cent increase in dividends upstreamed to ETI during 2024, these being received from 22 dividend-paying subsidiaries compared to just 14 in 2021,” the rating commentary revealed.

In turn, albeit high, ETI’s double leverage ratio, which measures the liquidity risk taken on by the holding company, as a result of it borrowing in order to invest in the equity of its subsidiaries, has eased to 168 per cent as of December 2024 from 173 per cent in 2023.

Additionally, the stable outlook reflects reduced liquidity risk at the holding company level with the refinancing of short-term liabilities in 2024 with longer-term funding.

Moody’s said this is underpinned by demonstrated market access, notably through senior unsecured notes issuance of $400m in October 2024 and a tap increase of $125m in May 2025, maturing in October 2029.

ETI’s B3 long-term issuer ratings affirmation reflects the affirmation of the group’s b2 notional BCA; the affirmation of the group’s b1 adjusted BCA as captured by a one-notch uplift for affiliate support, reflecting Moody’s assessment of a moderate probability that the firm’s major institutional shareholders would extend support to the group. Moody’s said asset quality for the group has improved over recent years.

 


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