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McKinsey Says Nigeria’s Top-20 Global Economy Quest Possible in 2030

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Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Coordinating Minister for the Economy
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In spite Nigeria been Africa’s most populous country and its largest economy, yet it is little understood outside the region – and its rapid economic development has been overshadowed by global coverage of recent terrorism incidents.

However, a new report from the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) looks beyond the country’s immediate challenges to its longer-term potential.

The report, “Nigeria’s renewal: Delivering inclusive growth in Africa’s largest economy”, finds that with the right reforms and investments, Nigeria can become one of the world’s leading economies by 2030.

The report shows that Nigeria has the potential to expand its economy by roughly 7 percent per year through 2030, potentially raising GDP to more than $1.6 trillion.

This could make Nigeria a top-20 global economy—with higher GDP than the

Netherlands, Thailand, or Malaysia in 2030.

Its consumer class could number 160 million people by 2030, and 70 million citizens could be lifted out of poverty.

“Nigeria has extraordinary advantages for future growth, including a large consumer market, a strategic geographic location, and a young and highly entrepreneurial population,” said Reinaldo Fiorini, director and location manager of McKinsey’s Nigeria office.

The findings are based on analysis of five major sectors:

On Trade, it shows that consumption could more than triple, rising to $1.4 trillion a year in 2030, making trade the largest sector of the economy.

Agriculture entails the sector, currently the country’s largest, could more than double to $263 billion by 2030.

Infrastructure- Total infrastructure investments could reach $1.5 trillion through 2030.

While manufacturing shows that if Nigeria reaches its full potential, manufacturing could have a four-fold increase in output by 2030, to $144 billion a year.

In oil and gas, with the right reforms, the GDP contribution of the oil and gas sector could rise to $108 billion per year from $73 billion now; natural gas output could grow by 6 percent a year, adding $13 billion to GDP by 2030.

However, the report emphasizes that Nigeria will need to take concerted action on several fronts if it is to achieve its full potential for growth and translate economic progress into rising living standards and poverty reduction.

These include improving delivery of government services; re-prioritizing public spending towards programs that drive development; attracting fresh investment; and capitalizing on global trends such as rising demand for resources and the spread of the digital economy.

“Nigeria could potentially triple its GDP by 2030,” said Acha Leke, a director in McKinsey’s Nigeria office. “This adds up to a huge opportunity for inclusive growth that should not be missed.”

The McKinsey Global Institute (MGI), the business and economics research arm of McKinsey & Company, was established in 1990 to develop a deeper understanding of the evolving global economy. Our goal is to provide leaders in the commercial, public, and social sectors with the facts and insights on which to base management and policy decisions.

The partners of McKinsey & Company fund MGI’s research; it is not commissioned by any business, government, or other institution.

 


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E-Financial

NIBBS: Banks Close 29.4m Accounts, Dormant Accounts Hit 33.39m

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Banks in Nigeria closed 29.4 million accounts as of March 2025, according to the latest report by the Nigerian Interbank Settlement System (NIBSS).

NIBBS: Banks Close 29.4m Accounts, Dormant Accounts Hit 33.39m

The figure represents a sharp year-on-year increase of 30.43 per cent from the 22.54 million closed accounts recorded in March 2024.

It also reflects a steady rise in account closures over recent months, with 33.29 million closed accounts reported in February 2025 and 29.43 million in January.

The report also revealed a significant increase in dormant accounts, which surged to 33.39 million in March 2025, up from 19.79 million in the same period in 2024, a 71.3 per cent rise in inactive accounts over the past year.

Despite the spike in closures and dormant accounts, the number of active bank accounts rose from 219.64 million in March 2024 to 320.05 million in March 2025, representing an increase of over 100 million, or 45.7 per cent.

NIBSS defines a dormant account as one that has seen no deposit, withdrawal, transfer, or point-of-sale transaction for a period of six months.

The surge in account closures and dormancy follows the Central Bank of Nigeria’s directive issued in December 2023, mandating commercial banks to restrict Tier-1 accounts not linked to a Bank Verification Number (BVN) and National Identification Number (NIN) by March 1, 2024.

In response to the directive, BVN enrolment increased from 61.6 million in April 2024 to 66.23 million by July 2025, as more Nigerians rushed to meet the CBN’s compliance deadline.

 

 


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Cardoso, CBN Boss Risks Arrest over Alleged N5.2 Trillion Unremitted Funds

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The Joint Committee of the House of Representatives on Public Accounts and Public Assets has threatened to issue a warrant of arrest against Mr. Olayemi Cardoso, governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), over repeated failure to honour its invitations regarding the probe into non-compliance with the Fiscal Responsibility Act 2007 and Finance Act 2020.

Cardoso, CBN Boss Risks Arrest over AllegdedN5.2 Trillion Unremitted Funds

Olayemi Cardoso,, Gov, CBN

In a joint statement released on Friday and signed by Hon. Bamidele Salam and Hon. Ademorin Kuye,  chairmen of the committees, the lawmakers decried the CBN governor’s continued disregard for legislative summons.

The committee is investigating the non-remittance of operating surplus as well as the mismanagement of unclaimed dividends and dormant account balances.

According to the committee, the Office of the Auditor General for the Federation reported a liability of N5.2 trillion in unremitted operating surplus due to the federal government from 2016 to 2022; a claim corroborated by the Fiscal Responsibility Commission in a separate submission to the National Assembly.

The committee cited provisions of the Finance Act 2020, which mandate that unclaimed dividends from publicly listed companies and dormant bank account balances older than six years be transferred into the Unclaimed Fund Trust Fund. The fund is to be managed by a Governing Council led by the Minister of Finance and the Debt Management Office (DMO).

Contrary to this, the CBN maintains that the Financial Institutions Act 2020 empowers it to manage dormant balances.

However, the committee noted that the Attorney General of the Federation has issued a legal opinion affirming that the Finance Act 2020 remains the valid law guiding the management of such funds.

Following extensive submissions, the committee resolved that the CBN must remit N3.64 trillion, representing 70% of the undisputed N5.2 trillion operating surplus, within 14 days from receipt of its June 27, 2025, directive, pending final reconciliation of the disputed amount.

Additionally, the apex bank was directed to submit a detailed report on the total sum of unclaimed dividends and dormant account balances by June 30, 2025.

The CBN was also ordered to transfer these funds into the Unclaimed Fund Trust Fund within 14 days and furnish the House with evidence of the transaction.

The lawmakers expressed frustration that, despite the clear directives and ample time, the CBN governor has failed to respond or appear before the joint committee to provide an explanation.

“In view of this continued defiance, the Committee will be compelled to exercise its constitutional powers to compel Mr. Olayemi Cardoso to appear before it,” the statement warned.

 


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Moody’s Upgrades Ecobank’s Outlook to Stable

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Moody’s has upgraded the outlook on Ecobank Transnational Incorporated’s long-term issuer and senior unsecured debt ratings to stable from negative.

In the latest rating commentary, made available to media on Thursday, Moody’s also affirmed the pan-African banking group’s B3/Not Prime long- and short-term issuer ratings; B3 senior unsecured debt rating; b2 notional Baseline Credit Assessment and b1 Adjusted BCA.

ETI’s subsidiaries operate across 38 countries, including 35 African countries, and total assets of $28.9bn as of March 2025, details from the rating note highlighted. Moody’s said the decision to change the outlook to stable on the long-term issuer and senior unsecured ratings reflects ETI’s resilient financial performance.

The rating upgrade also takes into consideration higher dividends being upstreamed to ETI, resulting in lower double leverage and reduced refinancing risk.

The rating adjustment also reflects an expectation that the recapitalisation process of Ecobank Nigeria Limited will be completed by the end of 2025, with limited impact on the group’s financial fundamentals.

“The stable outlook also captures our expectation that a series of capital-boosting initiatives and actions to cure Ecobank Nigeria’s total capital position will be completed before the end of 2025”, according to the ratings agency.

In May 2025, ETI received shareholder approval to raise $250 million in Additional Tier 1 (AT1) capital and announced the launch of the transaction effective 9 July 2025, of which a portion is expected to be downstreamed to Ecobank Nigeria as AT1 capital during Q3 2025.

Ecobank Nigeria’s plan to raise $200m in AT1 capital was noted in the rating note. The ratings analysts said they consider

“We also note that Ecobank Nigeria’s recent successful offer to tender $150m of its February 2026 $300 million notes and consent to remove the capital adequacy ratio covenant from this bond’s terms alleviates risks of an event of default in Nigeria that would trigger cross default at the ETI level. Over the past year, ETI has shown resilience in its financial performance, which supports our change in outlook to stable. Liquidity risks are being moderated by the group’s gradually improving profitability during 2024 and Q1-2025.

“This has translated into a 22 per cent increase in dividends upstreamed to ETI during 2024, these being received from 22 dividend-paying subsidiaries compared to just 14 in 2021,” the rating commentary revealed.

In turn, albeit high, ETI’s double leverage ratio, which measures the liquidity risk taken on by the holding company, as a result of it borrowing in order to invest in the equity of its subsidiaries, has eased to 168 per cent as of December 2024 from 173 per cent in 2023.

Additionally, the stable outlook reflects reduced liquidity risk at the holding company level with the refinancing of short-term liabilities in 2024 with longer-term funding.

Moody’s said this is underpinned by demonstrated market access, notably through senior unsecured notes issuance of $400m in October 2024 and a tap increase of $125m in May 2025, maturing in October 2029.

ETI’s B3 long-term issuer ratings affirmation reflects the affirmation of the group’s b2 notional BCA; the affirmation of the group’s b1 adjusted BCA as captured by a one-notch uplift for affiliate support, reflecting Moody’s assessment of a moderate probability that the firm’s major institutional shareholders would extend support to the group. Moody’s said asset quality for the group has improved over recent years.

 


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