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Mixed Oil Markets and Q2 Slowdown Signal Economic Warnings to Nigeria

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By Lukman Otunuga, Senior Research Analyst at FXTM,

Another recent escalation in the trade dispute between the US and China has punished crude Oil prices and set off warning signals for Oil-producing countries like Nigeria.

At the same time, Nigeria’s GDP slowed down to 1.94 percent in the second quarter from 2.1 percent in the first quarter, following the trend seen in several economies such as Germany and the UK.

It is becoming quite clear that as long as oil dependence remains one of Nigeria’s biggest risks, this will continue weighing heavily on the economy for the rest of 2019. While the GDP data should nudge the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to cut interest rates for the second time this year in September in an effort to stimulate growth, this is a temporary fix to a bigger problem

What trade disputes mean for Nigeria’s economy

Persistent trade disputes between the world’s two largest economies is set to fuel fears over a global slowdown or even recession. Oil prices declined on the basis that a decelerating global growth may result in lower demand for the commodity Nigeria relies on for 90% of its export earnings.

In the context of a trade dispute, tariffs are like bombs exploding on trading relationships, supply deals and eventually on company profits.

Trade tensions also remain a direct threat to Nigeria’s economy. The risk factors are escalating along with the probability that the world may see an economic slowdown in the short-to-medium term.

Under the current circumstances, there are three main challenges Nigeria must navigate. They are China’s slowdown, lower oil prices, and the need for fast and adaptive monetary policy to handle local and external shocks.

Will China impact Nigeria’s growth prospects?

China’s growth slowed to 6.2% in the second quarter, its weakest expansion in three decades. 

Most recently, China’s backing in the form of loans reached $16 billion and its vested interest is seen as a key support for the current production level of 1.85 million barrels per day. 

However, Nigeria aims to reach three million barrels per day and needs more investment from China, which may prove to be more difficult going forward if China’s economy continues to decline.

The high level of debt to China is also proving to be a weight on fiscal revenues because Nigeria spent 50% of its 2018 government revenues on debt repayment.

Indeed, the IMF has urged Nigeria to curb its large appetite for Chinese loans as the country struggles with a €70 billion debt burden. That’s up from €62 billion in 2017, representing a year-on-year rise of 12.25 percent.

Lower oil prices remain a threat to Nigeria’s recovery

The prospect of high debt levels to China amid lower oil prices is something that must not be overlooked.

At the time of writing, Oil benchmarks come under continuous pressure from demand-side concerns, including recession fears stemming from trade disputes.

The money from Oil sales is the lifeblood of the Nigerian economy. In the worst-case scenario, if Oil prices start drifting lower there could be unwelcome consequences such as even slower GDP growth, job losses, sovereign debt defaults, less money in the fiscal budget for development, and constrained consumer spending. 

Reduced crude Oil sales would affect government revenues and reserves, meaning the capacity to fund projects will be weakened. Stock markets together with investor sentiment domestically and externally would be impacted and possibly even trigger capital outflows.

Can Monetary policy handle downside shocks?

One would have expected economic momentum to pick up from Q1 after CBN cut interest rates in March and forced lenders to dish out more credit in a bid to boost growth.

While lower rates have the potential to keep the economy running, the answer to Nigeria’s woes can be found in diversification. The level of progress the nation has made in breaking away from the shackles of oil reliance remains a question for many with even the International Monetary Fund urging the nation to diversify revenues.

Another concern is friction over a recent UK court decision allowing a natural gas company to take over nine billion USD worth of Nigerian sovereign assets in London. The government has refused to accept the ruling and plans to appeal but the CBN may still need to step in to defend the Naira.

There is still some light at the end of the tunnel for the Nigerian economy if the right steps are taking in breaking away from oil reliance to other sustainable sources of economic growth. However, if Oil prices continue to send warning signals to Nigeria’s economic policy makers by trading sideways or declining, fiscal measures combined with monetary policy easing measures may become urgently needed to accelerate economic diversification.


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Ugo Onwuaso is an ICT enthusiast. He believes technology should be used for general good. He holds a Master of Public Administration (MPA) degree from the Lagos state University. Dear Reader, Your support matters. But we believe that technology makes life more exciting and helps improve the lives of people around Nigeria and indeed the world. That is why, we have devoted our energy to independent reportage of technology and finance and how they affect lives. Our incisive and analytical view of how technology news affects the daily life help individuals and organizations make up their minds. Quality journalism costs money. Today, we're asking that you support us to do more. Kindly support our effort to deliver technology and finance journalism to everyone in the world. Donate as little as N1,000. Bank transfers can be made to: UBA Plc 1017156876 Communication Week Media Ltd

E-Financial

Confusion as CBN Deletes, Reinstates Tweet Calling Crypto-Related Directive Fake

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has been forced to deny a report saying it issued a directive requiring all banks and financial institutions to identify individuals or entities engaging in transactions with cryptocurrency exchanges and to ensure that such accounts are put on Post No Debit (PND) instruction for six months.

Confusion as CBN Deletes, Reinstates Tweet Calling Crypto-Related Directive Fake

A “Post No Debit” instruction is a directive issued by a bank or financial institution to restrict certain transactions on a customer’s account.

When a PND instruction is in place, the account holder is prohibited from making debit transactions, meaning they cannot withdraw funds or make payments using the affected account.

Confusion occurred when the central bank denied the story on X but then deleted the denial.

The alleged circular also stated that regulated financial institutions engaged in crypto or facilitating payments for crypto exchanges are prohibited.

However, this contradicts an earlier ban lifted in December 2023, allowing banks to facilitate transactions for crypto exchanges.

The central bank lifted the ban nearly two years after enforcing a comprehensive ban on banks engaging with digital currencies.

According to a statement by the CBN at the time, it recognized that the increasing global demand and adoption of crypto make it unjustifiable to maintain the stringent restrictions imposed on financial institutions in 2021.

However, due to the swift devaluation of the naira and the subsequent inflation rate of 29.9%, the government shifted its attention to platforms offering cryptocurrency services.

It disabled websites associated with crypto trading that had gained notoriety for setting informal valuations for the naira.

Binance encountered significant scrutiny when the CBN raised concerns regarding “suspicious financial transactions” occurring through Binance Nigeria in 2023.

Olayemi Cardoso, governor, CBN, said $26 billion had passed through Nigeria via Binance in 2023 from unidentified sources and users.

Binance is facing further challenges in Nigeria, with its executive Tigran Gambaryan, who is based in the United States, being detained in the country.

He’s facing five charges linked to money laundering following a meeting with Nigerian officials regarding Binance’s regulatory compliance.

Nadeem Anjarwalla, one of the executives who met with Nigerian officials about Binance’s regulatory issues, subsequently escaped custody and was tracked down to Kenya, where he faces extradition.

 


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NDIC Inaugurates Anti-Corruption and Transparency Unit

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Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC) has inaugurated an Anti-Corruption and Transparency Unit (ACTU) at its headquarters in Abuja.

NDIC Inaugurates Anti-Corruption and Transparency Unit

Speaking at the inauguration which was conducted by officials of the Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission (ICPC); Mr. Bello Hassan, managing director/chief executive, NDIC, said the corporation has a culture of zero tolerance for corruption, which is further strengthened by its core values of teamwork, respect and fairness, integrity, professionalism, and passion.

Represented by Mr. Mustapha M. Ibrahim, executive director, Operations, Hassan, said, the NDIC ACTU has strengthened the Corporation’s operational system through the implementation of various compliance measures to ensure ethics, integrity, transparency and accountability in the workplace.

He explained that the specific measures include robust Internal Controls, regular Risk Assessments, and strict adherence to regulatory guidelines, and comprehensive training programs for employees.

Hassan described the inauguration as a significant step in the Corporation’s ongoing commitment in the fight against corruption and enhances transparency.

He emphasised that NDIC Management remains committed to supporting ACTU activities, recognizing the unit’s critical role in ensuring the Corporation’s operations are conducted with integrity, free from corruption, and fostering public trust.

Dr. Musa Adamu Aliyu, chairman, ICPC, who was represented by Mr. Olusegun Adigun, acting director System Study and Review, ICPC, praised NDIC management for their dedication and active support in establishing and advancing the activities of the ACTU to address corruption issues and foster ethical practices.

He applauded the efficiency and diligence of the NDIC ACTU in fulfilling its mandate, resulting in the Corporation retaining the first position for two consecutive years on the annual ICPC Ethics and Integrity Compliance Scorecard.

He urged the new ACTU members to see their nomination as an opportunity to build on the good legacies of the previous members and to complement Management’s efforts in promoting the core values of the Corporation through their assigned duties.

 

 


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Moniepoint, Community Pharmacists to Explore Digital Financial Inclusion for Health Industry

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Issues bordering on the need to strengthen the pharmaceutical supply chain and distribution leveraging digital technology, reducing the prevalence of fake medicines exacerbated by the unregulated and uncoordinated open drug market, bringing digital financial inclusion to the forefront of the health industry and achieving Universal Health Coverage, UHC for all Nigerians even in the face of its expanding population and limited human resources for health care have been brought to the fore.

L- R Regional Sales Manager, Moniepoint Inc, Emmanuel Imouokhome, National Secretary, ACPN, Pharm. Omokhafe Ashore, National Chairman, ACPN, Pharm Wale Oladigbolu and Vice President, Sales and Partnerships, Moniepoint Inc, Ifeanyi Duru, Chairman, ACPN Conference Planning Committee, Pharm. Grace Ikani and Lagos State Coordinator, Richard Eseka, during the courtesy call which held at the Moniepoint Inc office in Lagos

These subjects among many were raised during a courtesy visit by some National Executive members of the Association of Community Pharmacists of Nigeria (ACPN) to the Moniepoint Inc office in Lagos. With an average of 480,000 daily footfalls across over 6,000 community pharmacies in Nigeria, the ACPN plays a vital role in Nigeria’s healthcare system as front-line workers who promote public health and well-being, beyond dispensing medications as they serve as trusted healthcare providers within communities, offering valuable advice, counsel, and preventive care.

Leading the ACPN delegation, the National Chairman, ACPN, Pharm Wale Oladigbolu lauded the giant strides made by Moniepoint in providing reliable and seamless digital payment services to community pharmacies across the country adding that some other players in the pharmaceutical still operated primarily with cash, thus limiting their growth potential and financial inclusion.

He noted that Nigeria’s health care industry was ripe for disruption using digital and technological know-how to achieve UHC, social health insurance, supply chain systems and data for policy formulation.

“This visit to Moniepoint today is underscored by our belief that a well structured collaboration between both organizations will produce transformative high yield results and benefit the nation’s healthcare system at large. Such collaborations enhance not only the operational efficiency of our pharmacies but also ensure that our patients and customers benefit from the convenience and security of digital financial services. Integrating financial technology seamlessly into everyday health services, making them more accessible and efficient for all is a noble task that all stakeholders should strive towards achieving,” he said.

Furthermore, he solicited for Moniepoint’s robust participation at the Association’s 43rd annual Scientific Conference scheduled for Ibadan, Oyo State later in the year. He noted that this year’s event will deliver a peerless experience for all attendees in terms of skills and knowledge acquisition, as well as the sporting and entertainment value added initiatives that have been lined up.

Vice President, Sales and Partnerships, Moniepoint Inc, Ifeanyi Duru who expressed his delight at the opportunity to collaborate with the ACPN and deploy the digital financial services provider’s cutting-edge technology to drive greater financial empowerment and inclusion in Nigeria’s healthcare industry.

“Creating financial happiness is our mantra and a more inclusive financial ecosystem that caters to the unique needs of the health industry in Nigeria is in perfect sync with what we stand for at Moniepoint. There is a significant opportunity here to elevate the interests of community pharmacists and give fresh impetus to the way community pharmacies operate by layering tech and digital payments for socio-economic development. The potential impact of this collaborative effort especially in bridging significant gaps in the value chain is huge and one which we relish the opportunity to tackle,” he said.

Notable professionals present during the visit include National Secretary, ACPN, Pharm. Omokhafe Ashore, Chairman, ACPN Conference Planning Committee, Pharm. Grace Ikani, Regional Sales Manager, Moniepoint Inc, Emmanuel Imouokhome, State Coordinator, Richard Eseka, Public Relations Manager, Moniepoint Inc, Bemigho Awala and Brand Story-teller, Emmanuel Paul.

Moniepoint’s comprehensive and easy to use suite of payment, banking, credit, and business management tools continues to empower over 2 million individuals and businesses across the country to thrive and better serve their communities in a manner that drives economic growth and social impact.


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